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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin Part 2 of 2
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/13/2002
AET (Aetna--$49.84; +0.94; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/a/aet.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Looks ready to make the move out of this short, 7-week base. Tested the 18 day MVA Friday, showed a doji, and then moved up today on solid volume. Not the breakout yet, but looking close. Trying to move to the 5-year high at 59.
Volume: 1.361M Avg Volume: 1.147M
BUY POINT: $50.35 Volume=1.7M Target=$60 Stop=$46.83
POSITION: Stock and/or AET JI - Oct. $45c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aet.html
APSG (Applied Signal--$12; +0.23; no options): Telecom equipment
Play Date: 06/15/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/a/apsg.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still testing the breakout of the 7-month cup with handle showing a tight doji that tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (11.70). Volume was very, very low on the test. During the base accumulation weeks led distribution weeks 8 to 4; very good accumulation. Excellent buying and relative strength has broken out. Looking ready.
Volume: 16.5K Avg Volume: 39.363K
BUY POINT: $12.25 Volume=90K Target=$16 Stop=$11
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apsg.html
ATH (Anthem-- $73.5; +2.11; optionable): Play Date: 06/08/2002
Play Date: 06/08/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/a/ath.html
STATUS: New high breakout. Running up again after testing the 18 day MVA on Friday and bouncing. Making the move we were looking for on decent but not huge volume. Can still pick up more positions on this move.
Volume: 1.356M Avg Volume: 1.307M
BUY POINT: New positions on up to a breakout over the recent high (75.25) (prior 72.25 and 73.40). Volume=1.8M Target=$86.75 Stop=$67.19
POSITION: ATH IN - Sept. 70 call (62 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ath.html
CBRL (CBRL Group--$33.76; +1.83; optionable): Restaurants
Play Date: 06/15/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/c/cbrl.html
STATUS: Another test of the breakout. Nice move, hitting our next buy point on strong, above average volume Monday. This is the move we were looking for, and now it needs to take out 34 on continued strong volume. Accumulation weeks in the base were 5 weeks versus just 2 distribution weeks. Good accumulation and a relative strength breakout as well.
Volume: 911.7K Avg Volume: 925.681K
BUY POINT: New positions can be taken on a move over 34. (prior buy point $32.50). Volume=1.2M Target=$40.25 Stop=$30.22
POSITION: Stock and/or CBQ IF - Sept. $30 call (68 delta) or CBQ IE - Sept. $25 call (88 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbrl.html
CMPC (Compucom Systems- $3.90; 0.00; no options): Wholesale computers
Play Date: 06/12/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/c/cmpc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still testing on low, below average volume. Monday it showed its second doji with tail, with the low tapping the simple 50 day MVA (3.78) and then rallying back up to close right on the 18 day MVA. It looks ripe. Accumulation weeks outnumbered distribution weeks 12 to 6 in the base; very solid.
Volume: 74.2K Avg Volume: 151.636K
BUY POINT: $4.10 Volume=200K Target=$5.63 Stop=$3.55
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmpc.html
ERTS (Electronic Arts-- $65.21; +2.90; optionable): Play Date: 05/30/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/e/erts.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice move today! Gave us the move we were looking for but needs a bit more volume as it bounces off of the 50 day MVA test the past two sessions. Still gave above average volume on the move so no complaints. Looking for a continued run on the stronger volume below for additional positions.
Volume: 3.425M Avg Volume: 2.908M
BUY POINT: Additional positions: from here to 66.12 (original 65.10). New high: $66.12. Volume=4M Target=$79.50 Stop=$61.49
POSITION: EZQ IL - Sept. $60 call, delta 67 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/erts.html
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation-- $29.45; +0.69; optionable): Play Date: 06/01/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. JBHT decided not to test the 10 day MVA (28.04) anymore, moving back up to a recent high on rising, above average volume. Not huge volume, but a very solid move. It is still a buy at this point and on up to 30 if the volume stays strong. Otherwise we are going to look for a pullback to test 28.50 for new positions. Now it can challenge that January high at 29.39
Volume: 480.4K Avg Volume: 459.772K
BUY POINT: A buy up to 30. Volume=500K Target=$36 Stop=$26.25.
POSITION: JHQ KX - Nov. $25 calls, delta 76 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jbht.html
PCLE (Pinnacle Systems-- $11.93; +0.48; optionable): Play Date: 06/08/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/p/pcle.html
STATUS: Testing breakout. Moving up off of Friday doji, rising to a new closing high on this move on strong, above average volume. It peeked over 12 today and pulled back on the close. It got us into a few positions, and we will look for more on another strong volume move over 12.
Volume: 1.142M Avg Volume: 660.136K
BUY POINT: New positions over 12.00 ($11.50 buy point Monday). Volume=1M Target=$19.94 Stop=$10.25. After that we will look for a rest at 13.60 and then a bounce up for the next buy point.
POSITION: PUC JU - Oct. $7.50 call (84 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcle.html
SALM (Salem Communications-- $29.49; +0.05; no options): Play Date: 06/03/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/s/salm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Looked to be making the move Friday on that rising volume, but did not participate in Monday's happy action. On very low volume it showed a doji at the top of the handle trange. Have to be patient and let it make the move. It is a 10-month cup with handle and we like the action thus far. Still you have to wait for the breakout. Excellent buying with accumulation weeks over distribution weeks 12 to 2. Again we are being patient to let the breakout occur.
Volume: 9.4K Avg Volume: 65.59K
BUY POINT: $30.17 Volume=100K Target=$36.2 Stop=$27.50
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/salm.html
SSNC (SSS&C Technologies--$12.41; +0.41; no options): Application software
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/s/ssnc.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. A decent price move in the 2-month ascending wedge, but could not muster any volume. It appears to still be building that pressure for the breakout as it moves up in the larger base, but we need to see it make the breakout on strong volume in these types of patterns!!! 12 marks a resistance level in the bigger base.
Volume: 22.6K Avg Volume: 64.136K
BUY POINT: $12.65 Volume=80K Target=$16 Stop=$11.50
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ssnc.html
Downside
CI (Cigna--$102.15; +3.24; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/c/ci.html
STATUS: Put. Okay, now we got the move up to test 102, making the move up on low, below average volume. This is the kind of weak move up to test the breakdown through the 50 day MVA that occurred last Thursday and Friday on much stronger volume. We want to see the turn lower and see it pass through the buy point on solid volume. There were a lot of strong price moves up Monday that were not accompanied by volume. This is one of them.
Volume: 624.5K Avg Volume: 755.181K
BUY POINT: After a test of 102, 101.45. Breakdown: $99.90 Volume=1M Target=$95.2 Stop=$103.50
POSITION: CI SA - July $105 put (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ci.html
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals--$14.06; -0.42; optionable): Drugs
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/l/lgnd.html
STATUS: Put. This one had a buy alert issued on it today because it rallied up to the 10 day MVA on the high (14.69) and then reversed and started selling on rising volume. It hit our buy point near the close, and rose a bit from there. No big deal as we saw the action we wanted: the test higher of the prior breach and then an intraday reversal on rising volume. Still easily a buy from here on more selling.
Volume: 536.1K Avg Volume: 592.09K
BUY POINT: New positions: $13.95. Volume=700K Target=$10.05 Stop=$15.35
POSITION: LQP TD - Aug. $20 put (-82 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lgnd.html
MNTR (Mentor Corp.-- $37.52; +1.38; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/m/mntr.html
STATUS: Put. Now this stock is making the test up toward 37.50 as we wanted, but volume was stronger and above average on the move. It finished 50 cents off the high, but it was not what we would call an intraday reversal. What we want to see now is an intraday reversal in fact: Another test of 38 to 38.50 and then an intraday reversal on continued strong volume.
Volume: 209.6K Avg Volume: 114.772K
BUY POINT: 35.90 after a test of 38 to 38.50. Breakdown: $35.95 Volume=120K Target=$32.2 Stop=$38
POSITION: MNQ VH - Oct. $40 put (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mntr.html
QCOM (Qualcom-- $29.22; -0.68; optionable): Play Date: 06/05/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Put. It is important to note that QCOM did not participate in the rally Monday, continuing to sell on above average volume. Not a breakdown and it did hold at the December to March down trendline. Still its failure to participate was telling, and on any market weakness it will most likely head back down.
Volume: 21.42M Avg Volume: 14.444M
BUY POINT: Holding current positions. (original buy at $31.5). Volume=1.5M Target=$25 Stop=$33.50
POSITION: AAW SH - July 40 put (delta --76) AAW VH - Oct. 40 put (delta -60)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qcom.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
We have put all plays in a summary table that contains the date the stock was put on the report (so you can go back and check out the details of the play) and the other pertinent information. This provides more information than the watchlist summaries and still contains comments when appropriate. VIEW THIS IN COURIER NEW, 12 FOR BEST RESULTS. You can also easily print the table from the website (www.investmenthouse.com) from the 'current reports' section. If you just want to print the table you can cut and paste it to a word document setting the font to Courier New size 12. Just left click on the beginning of the table and drag to the table end. After selecting, right click and select 'copy.' Paste into your word processor. Select it all and choose Courier New, font size 12.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABF 05/11 BO 20.48 +0.38 22.23 25.75 620K 662K 20.25
Weak test of the 50 day MVA. Ready to exit.
ACF 06/17 Put 29.38 +2.38 29.2 25.2 1.8M 2M 33
AET 06/13 Saucer 49.84 +0.94 50.35 60 1.4M 1.1M 46.83
APSG 06/15 Test BO 12 +0.23 12.25 16 16K 39K 11
ATH 06/08 BO 73.5 +2.11 72.25 86.75 1.4M 1.3M 67.19
A bit lower volume on the bounce.
ATH 05/16 Test 50 73.5 +2.11 68.5 75 1.4M 1.3M 63
BGG 05/11 Put 38.84 +1.34 39.4 35 76K 137K 42
Testing the 18 day MVA on a below average volume bounce.
BL 05/21 cup hdl 22.95 +0.05 23.85 27.5 26K 15K 22
Still waiting for the breakout but showing another very good volume spike Monday. Be ready.
BLC 05/25 Flat 22.95 +0.05 24.25 30 197K 257K 22.55
BYBI 05/23 BO 10.52 +0.12 9.7 12.75 20K 48K 9.02
Still in a nice test on the 10 day MVA and very low volume.
CAND 06/06 BO 4.86 +0.21 4.98 6.95 92K 288K 4
Held steady on no volume.
CBRL 06/15 Test BO 33.76 +1.83 32.5 40.25 912K 926K 30.22
CERN 05/20 A Wedge 52.37 +2.82 56.1 60 520K 454K 53
Great recovery on very strong volume!
CI 06/15 Put 102.15 +3.24 99.9 95.2 624K 755K 103.50
Weak volume test of the 50 day MVA.
CMPC 06/12 Test BO 3.9 0 4.1 5.63 74K 152K 3.55
CTX 05/11 Put 53.65 +1.48 53.5 49 827K 1.2M 56
A weak test of the 50 day MVA, but have to watch the morning housing report.
CVH 06/05 Test BO 31.46 -0.69 32.6 39 532K 436K 29
Hanging onto the 18 day MVA.
CYMI 06/03 Put 39.9 +3.85 39.45 33.8 1.9M 1.4M 44
Just below resistance at 44 on rising volume. Watching closely.
DTC 06/17 cup hdl 12 +0.29 12.22 15 42K 63K 11.36
DVN 05/25 A Wedge 48.82 +1.27 50.95 61 805K 999K 47.38
Cleared the 50 day MVA but on low volume. May need to exit.
ERTS 05/30 Cup 65.21 +2.9 66.12 79.5 3.4M 2.9M 61.49
FRX 06/10 Put 74.6 +1.94 72.45 68 935K 1.2M 75
All the way to the 50 day MVA, but on lower and lower volume.
FSS 05/22 DB hdl 24.99 +0.18 25.8 31 329K 188K 23.99
Held the 50 day MVA on another volume surge. Good.
FTEK 06/12 Test BO 6.8 +0.05 6.92 8.25 51K 59K 6.37
FTEK 06/01 A Wedge 6.8 +0.05 6.65 8 51K 59K 5.95
HGR 05/20 Test 50 14.77 +0.65 12.6 19 178K 121K 11.72
Nice breakout on solid volume!
HI 05/20 Put 52.74 +1.94 53.45 48.5 2.6M 3M 56
Gapped higher but on even lower volume.
HLT 05/06 Put 13.53 +0.25 14.3 12 1.2M 2.1M 15.80
A doji at the 18 day MVA. Still good.
HSIC 05/15 BO 49.64 +0.89 49.4 56.9 284K 288K 46.50
Good move off that 50 day MVA on rising volume.
HSY 06/12 Put 65.57 +1.12 65.35 61 291K 500K 67.25
Rallied, but on that very low volume.
IBC 06/08 BO 27.99 +0.33 28.6 34.96 200K 244K 26.6
Not a bad move off the 18 day MVA, but needs volume.
IMDC 05/20 Put 31.18 +0.1 29.9 26 66K 205K 32
Not falling yet.
INTU 05/30 cup hdl 46.9 +2.83 45 54 5M 2.5M 41.85
Beautiful breakout!
ITN 05/13 DB hdl 12.48 +0.18 13 16.5 118K 109K 11.75
JBHT 06/01 A Wedge 29.45 +0.69 28.72 36 480K 460K 25.40
KROL 06/06 BO 22.7 -1.25 20.2 24 539K 345K 19.50
Back down, but on lower volume.
LGND 06/15 Put 14.06 -0.42 13.95 10.05 536K 592K 15.35
LZB 06/03 Put 26.95 +0.67 26.5 23.5 232K 200K 29.50
Still in the downtrend, rising Monday on lower volume.
MDC 06/06 Put 46.75 +1.55 44.7 40.35 117K 186K 47
Lower volume rise.
MNTR 06/15 Put 37.52 +1.38 35.95 32.2 210K 115K 38
MTB 06/11 Put 86.26 +3.66 82.95 77.75 384K 247K 85.60
Not good; Broke back over the 50 day MVA on strong volume. Exit on a test of 85.
NFB 04/13 BO 39.48 +1.48 36.55 43.5 647K 645K 37
Great recovery over the 50 day MVA; needs some volume.
NX 06/01 Test 50 38.97 -0.98 36.5 43.8 323K 105K 33.94
Fell back on still strong volume, but holding the 10 day MVA.
OSI 05/29 Test BO 37.15 +0.95 39.05 46.94 462K 468K 36.32
Recovered to test the 50 day MVA, but on below average volume.
PBG 05/30 Test 18 33.15 +0.73 32.75 36 894K 1.2M 30.46
Okay. May be ready with a rising volume move, but needs more trade.
PCLE 06/08 BO 11.93 +0.48 11.5 19.94 1.1M 660K 10.25
PCLE 05/06 cup hdl 11.93 +0.48 10.27 13 1.1M 660K 9.40
PEGA 06/10 Test 18 9.77 +0.66 11.68 15.45 90K 133K 10.30
Weak bounce from the 50 day MVA.
PETC 06/01 Test BO 25.56 +0.26 25.85 31 184K 270K 24.04
Held the 10 day MVA. Not bad, not great.
PNR 06/08 Put 47.9 +1.52 44.7 39.75 313K 289K 47
Rallying on strong volume. Time to exit.
QCOM 06/05 Put 29.22 -0.68 31.5 25 21M 14M 33.50
RE 06/11 Put 59.58 +1.64 58.55 54 669K 575K 63
Made it to 60, but volume backed off. Holding for now.
SALM 06/03 cup hdl 29.49 +0.05 30.17 36.2 9.4K 66K 27.50
SSNC 06/15 A Wedge 12.41 +0.41 12.65 16 23K 64K 11.50
TEVA 06/04 cup hdl 65.9 +1.9 68.05 80 673K 897K 63.29
Now it is in better shape, rebounding from the 50 day MVA, but still no volume yet.
TEVA 05/15 BO 65.9 +1.9 62.1 67 673K 897K 60.50
XRAY 05/25 A Wedge 38.38 +0.4 40.35 48.25 630K 334K 37.53
Testing the 50 day MVA on continued strong volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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