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Begin Part 2 of 2
Best Plays:
1) AXP: New play to the downside.
2) PETC: Moving well on good volume.
3) ATH: A doji on the 10 day MVA.
4) CMPC: Holding up well.
5) DTC: Very nice day in a bad market.
6) LGND: Looks ready for more.
7) MNTR: Another doji.
Continuing plays table: CAND looks ready. Keep an eye on PBG.
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Revisited:
PETC (Petco--$25.89; +0.89; no options): Pet food
Play Date: 06/19/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/p/petc.html
STATUS: Breakout ahead. A very nice day in a bad market. PETC is a new issue that is enjoying good volume and good accumulation. We are looking for a high volume breakout here for new positions.
Volume: 316.2K Avg Volume: 270.5K
BUY POINT: $26.25 Volume=300K Target=$31 Stop=$24
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/petc.html
Play Date: 06/13/2002
AET (Aetna--$51.76; +0.89; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/a/aet.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Made the move Tuesday, and added more to the move Wednesday on a steady rise in volume. Again, with the increase in rates the past two years, these guys should be making a boatload of money. Trying to move to the 5-year high at 59.
Volume: 2.306M Avg Volume: 1.175M
BUY POINT: Holding current positions taken at $50.35. Volume=1.7M Target=$60 Stop=$46.83
POSITION: Stock and/or AET JI - Oct. $45c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aet.html
APSG (Applied Signal--$11.11; -0.44; no options): Telecom equipment
Play Date: 06/15/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/a/apsg.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. More testing than we want, selling below the 18 day MVA (11.38), but holding at the breakout over 11. Volume was lower but still above average on the Tuesday selling. Still a good pattern as it forms more of a second handle here on overall low volume. We will let it settle down and then try another move higher.
Volume: 51.8K Avg Volume: 40K
BUY POINT: $12.25 Volume=90K Target=$16 Stop=$11
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apsg.html
ATH (Anthem--$73.43; -0.32; optionable):Play Date: 06/08/2002
Play Date: 06/08/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/a/ath.html
STATUS: New high breakout. Is not getting the volume as it tries to clear 75 with volume declining the past three sessions. ATH has been riding up the 18 day MVA, showing a hammer doji above the 10 day MVA. This is one of the better sectors, so we are looking for that further breakout over 75 on some strong volume.
Volume: 988.9K Avg Volume: 1.324M
BUY POINT: New positions on up to a breakout over the recent high (75.25) (prior 72.25 and 73.40). Volume=1.8M Target=$86.75 Stop=$67.19
POSITION: ATH IN - Sept. 70 call (62 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ath.html
CBRL (CBRL Group--$33.36; +0.14; optionable): Restaurants
Play Date: 06/15/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/c/cbrl.html
STATUS: Another test of the breakout. Running into resistance at 34 the past week, unable to put together enough volume to break it out on this test of the breakout. Volume was up Wednesday, but the stock reversed from 34 on the high to close with a fractional gain. That is why we are looking for new positions over 34. Still looking solid with that good accumulation. Accumulation weeks in the base were 5 weeks versus just 2 distribution weeks. Good accumulation and a relative strength breakout as well.
Volume: 644.2K Avg Volume: 914.818K
BUY POINT: New positions can be taken on a move over 34. (prior buy point $32.50). Volume=1.2M Target=$40.25 Stop=$30.22
POSITION: Stock and/or CBQ IF - Sept. $30 call (68 delta) or CBQ IE - Sept. $25 call (88 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbrl.html
CMPC (Compucom Systems--$3.79; -0.09; no options): Wholesale computers
Play Date: 06/12/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/c/cmpc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Held up very well considering the AAPL news today. There was an uptick in volume as it sold back to the simple 50 day MVA, but still very much in the pattern. Despite the action in tech, this one still looks ready with a good pattern with good accumulation. Accumulation weeks outnumbered distribution weeks 12 to 6 in the base; very solid.
Volume: 95.2K Avg Volume: 148.636K
BUY POINT: $4.10 Volume=200K Target=$5.63 Stop=$3.55
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmpc.html
DTC (Domtar--$11.82; -0.14; no options): Paper products
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/d/dtc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still holding well in the 14-week cup with handle that is part of a larger 2.5-year base. Volume has settled back down as DTC tested the 18 day MVA on the low (11.73) on very, very low volume. This one still looks ready to breakout. Accumulation is strong in the base at 3 accumulation weeks to 1 distribution week. We need to see the breakout on this one.
Volume: 13.7K Avg Volume: 62.5K
BUY POINT: $12.22 Volume=175K Target=$15 Stop=$11.36
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dtc.html
ERTS (Electronic Arts--$64.86; -0.76; optionable): Multimedia Graphics
Play Date: 05/30/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/e/erts.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ERTS was up again on Tuesday, but was not generating the volume, so we held off issuing the alert. Today it had a soft session on even lower, below average volume. It too is weathering adverse news from the bigger boy, but because of the headwinds we really want to see some good volume on a very clear, decisive breakout move.
Volume: 2.15M Avg Volume: 2.943M
BUY POINT: Additional positions: over 66.12, a new high (original 65.10). Volume=4M Target=$79.50 Stop=$61.49
POSITION: EZQ IL - Sept. $60 call, delta 67 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/erts.html
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$32.2; +2.49; optionable): Trucking
Play Date: 06/01/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Beautiful breakout on good news in the sector!.
Volume: 1.574M Avg Volume: 465.5K
BUY POINT: Holding current positions.
POSITION: JHQ KX - Nov. $25 calls, delta 76 and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jbht.html
PCLE (Pinnacle Systems--$11.61; -0.14; optionable): Photo equipment
Play Date: 06/08/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/p/pcle.html
STATUS: Testing breakout. A lower volume pullback the past two sessions as PCLE struggles a bit with 12. It is showing excellent price/volume action, and we are looking to add to positions on that stronger move over 12.
Volume: 786K Avg Volume: 681.727K
BUY POINT: New positions over 12.10 ($11.50 buy point Monday). Volume=1M Target=$19.94 Stop=$10.25. After that we will look for a rest at 13.60 and then a bounce up for the next buy point.
POSITION: PUC JU - Oct. $7.50 call (84 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pcle.html
SALM (Salem Communications--$28.49; -1.14; no options): Radio
Play Date: 06/03/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/s/salm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Below the 18 day MVA 28.82), but on very low volume. This looks like a needed shakeout in the handle as the stock was riding at the top of the range but unable to garner any volume. Now we will let it skulk around here for a session or two and then see if it can muster the breakout volume. Excellent buying with accumulation weeks over distribution weeks 12 to 2. Again we are being patient to let the breakout occur.
Volume: 9.4K Avg Volume: 65.59K
BUY POINT: $30.17 Volume=100K Target=$36.2 Stop=$27.50
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/salm.html
SSNC (SSS&C Technologies--$13.32; -0.08; no options): Application software
Play Date: 06/15/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/s/ssnc.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Huge move Tuesday on huge volume. Wednesday SSNC took a rest after such a strong move with volume dropping though still above average. An expected rest after the move, but now we want to see it hold at 13 and move higher on this strong volume.
Volume: 180.3K Avg Volume: 68.181K
BUY POINT: Riding current positions taken at $12.65 Volume=80K Target=$16 Stop=$11.50
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ssnc.html
Downside
ACF (Americredit--$27.52; -0.93; optionable): Credit Services
Play Date: 06/17/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/a/acf.html
STATUS: Put. Started down Tuesday but on low volume. Wednesday it sold down some more after trying to move higher. Volume rose but was still below average. In good shape to hit the target over another day or two of selling.
Volume: 1.758M Avg Volume: 1.941M
BUY POINT: Riding positions taken at $29.20. Volume=2.5M Target=$25.2 Stop=$33
POSITION: ACF TG - Aug. $35 put (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acf.html
CI (Cigna--$100.68; -2.24; optionable): Health care plans
Play Date: 06/15/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/c/ci.html
STATUS: Put. One more test of the 50 day MVA (102.94) Tuesday, and then Wednesday CI began to fall. Volume was still below average, so we will look for it to pick up on the more as the selling continues. We will need to see that volume. If it does not come in CI will try to hold near 99.
Volume: 570.2K Avg Volume: 756.136K
BUY POINT: Breakdown: $99.90 Volume=1M Target=$95.2 Stop=$103.50
POSITION: CI SA - July $105 put (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ci.html
LGND (Ligand Pharmaceuticals--$13.74; -0.49; optionable): Drugs
Play Date: 06/15/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/l/lgnd.html
STATUS: Put. After an attempt at moving up Tuesday, LGND turned back lower Wednesday. Volume did not ratchet up, but we anticipate the stock will continue to fall.
Volume: 315.2K Avg Volume: 595.772K
BUY POINT: New positions can still be taken on a further drop. $13.95. Volume=700K Target=$10.05 Stop=$15.35
POSITION: LQP TD - Aug. $20 put (-82 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lgnd.html
MNTR (Mentor Corp.--$37.75; +0.47; optionable): Medical appliances
Play Date: 06/15/2002
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/m/mntr.html
STATUS: Put. Showed a doji Tuesday and another one today on rising, above average volume. It broke over the 50 day MVA (37.48). This could be a reversal: doji on higher volume, but we would have preferred it to occur below the 50 day MVA. If we get selling on volume tomorrow we will look at some aggressive positions.
Volume: 164.3K Avg Volume: 116.772K
BUY POINT: 36.75 on further selling. Breakdown: $35.95 Volume=120K Target=$32.2 Stop=$38
POSITION: MNQ VH - Oct. $40 put (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mntr.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
We have put all plays in a summary table that contains the date the stock was put on the report (so you can go back and check out the details of the play) and the other pertinent information. This provides more information than the watchlist summaries and still contains comments when appropriate. VIEW THIS IN COURIER NEW, 12 FOR BEST RESULTS. You can also easily print the table from the website (www.investmenthouse.com) from the 'current reports' section. If you just want to print the table you can cut and paste it to a word document setting the font to Courier New size 12. Just left click on the beginning of the table and drag to the table end. After selecting, right click and select 'copy.' Paste into your word processor. Select it all and choose Courier New, font size 12.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABF 05/11 BO 19.67 -0.28 22.23 25.75 750K 662K 20.25
ACF 06/17 Put 27.52 -0.93 29.2 25.2 1.8M 1.9M 33
AET 06/13 Saucer 51.76 +0.89 50.35 60 2.3M 1.2M 46.83
APSG 06/15 Test BO 11.11 -0.44 12.25 16 52K 40K 11
ATH 06/08 BO 73.43 -0.32 72.25 86.75 989K 1.3M 67.19
ATH 05/16 Test 50 73.43 -0.32 68.5 75 989K 1.3M 63
ATMI 06/18 Put 21.76 -2.24 23.85 20.05 490K 457K 26
Dropping hard as anticipated.
AXP 06/19 Put 37.98 -0.72 37.75 34.05 4.1M 4.7M 41
BGG 05/11 Put 37.25 -0.85 39.4 35 114K 135K 42
Falling again on rising volume.
BL 05/21 cup hdl 22.76 -0.04 23.85 27.5 19K 16K 22
Still in the pattern . . .
BLC 05/25 Flat 24.02 +0.22 24.25 30 370K 254K 22.55
Trying to make the breakout with above average volume.
BPOP 06/15 cup hdl 33.12 +0.01 32.35 36.5 139K 105K 30.50
A doji after a strong run. Due for a bit of a rest.
BYBI 05/23 BO 11.16 -0.23 9.7 12.75 74K 48K 9.02
Still struggling to clear 11.50 definitively.
CAND 06/19 BO 4.7 -0.02 5.05 6.95 136K 290K 4.45
A doji on the 18 day MVA.
CAND 06/06 BO 4.7 -0.02 4.98 6.95 136K 290K 4
CBRL 06/15 Test BO 33.36 +0.14 32.5 40.25 644K 915K 30.22
Trying to clear 34.
CERN 05/20 A Wedge 53.01 -1.17 56.1 60 300K 462K 53
CI 06/15 Put 100.68 -2.24 99.9 95.2 570K 756K 103.50
CMPC 06/12 Test BO 3.79 -0.09 4.1 5.63 95K 149K 3.55
CTX 05/11 Put 56.56 +1.26 53.5 49 2M 1.2M 56
A good day on more good housing news. If still in, it may give another test of the 50 day MVA.
CVH 06/05 Test BO 33.75 -0.45 32.6 39 836K 446K 29
CYMI 06/03 Put 38.14 -1.73 39.45 33.8 1.5M 1.4M 44
Looks ready to fall again.
DTC 06/17 cup hdl 11.82 -0.14 12.22 15 14K 62K 11.36
DVN 05/25 A Wedge 48.76 +0.18 50.95 61 724K 980K 47.38
Stalling at the 50 day MVA.
ECL 05/23 cup hdl 45.91 +0.16 47.8 57.36 564K 351K 44.45
ERTS 05/30 Cup 64.86 -0.76 66.12 79.5 2.2M 2.9M 61.49
FRX 06/10 Put 72 -1.65 72.45 68 956K 1.2M 75
Tumbling again.
FSS 05/22 DB hdl 25.5 +0.04 25.8 31 212K 190K 23.99
FTEK 06/12 Test BO 6.94 -0.2 6.92 8.25 163K 63K 6.37
FTEK 06/01 A Wedge 6.94 -0.2 6.65 8 163K 63K 5.95
HGR 05/20 Test 50 15.05 +0.12 12.6 19 203K 126K 11.72
HI 05/20 Put 51.55 -1.2 53.45 48.5 3.1M 3M 56
Falling again on stronger volume.
HLT 05/06 Put 13.83 +0.33 14.3 12 2.2M 2M 15.80
HSIC 05/15 BO 49.31 -0.27 49.4 56.9 253K 289K 46.50
HSY 06/12 Put 65.31 -0.06 65.35 61 257K 480K 67.25
IBC 06/08 BO 28.25 +0.18 28.6 34.96 280K 249K 26.6
Not bad action, but has to clear 28.50.
IMDC 05/20 Put 29.16 -1.07 29.9 26 406K 206K 32
Plunging.
INTU 05/30 cup hdl 46.13 -2.21 45 54 3.7M 2.6M 41.85
Reversed the good move. At least on lower volume.
ITN 05/13 DB hdl 12.03 -0.2 13 16.5 115K 110K 11.75
Not good. Holding at some support at 12, but rising volume.
JBHT 06/01 A Wedge 32.2 +2.49 28.72 36 1.6M 466K 25.40
KROL 06/06 BO 21.01 -1.27 20.2 24 715K 364K 19.50
Getting way too volatile, now tanking to the 50 day MVA on above average volume. Has to hold here.
LGND 06/15 Put 13.74 -0.49 13.95 10.05 315K 596K 15.35
MDC 06/06 Put 50.33 +1.81 44.7 40.35 293K 186K 47
Had to exit.
MNTR 06/15 Put 37.75 +0.47 35.95 32.2 164K 117K 38
MTB 06/11 Put 86.25 -0.07 82.95 77.75 208K 247K 85.60
NFB 04/13 BO 39.45 -0.2 36.55 43.5 500K 648K 37
NMHC 06/18 cup hdl 10.39 -1.87 13 15.6 86K 29K 11.90
Tanked without giving the move.
NX 06/01 Test 50 40.85 +0.6 36.5 43.8 290K 112K 33.94
Still climbing.
OSI 05/29 Test BO 37.4 +0.19 39.05 46.94 572K 463K 36.32
Holding on at the 50 day MVA.
PBG 05/30 Test 18 33.5 +0.73 32.75 36 1.2M 1.2M 30.46
Not a bad move at all. Watch this one.
PCLE 06/08 BO 11.61 -0.14 11.5 19.94 786K 682K 10.25
PCLE 05/06 cup hdl 11.61 -0.14 10.27 13 786K 682K 9.40
PETC 06/19 BO 25.89 +0.89 26.25 31 316K 270K 24
PETC 06/01 Test BO 25.89 +0.89 25.85 31 316K 270K 24.04
PNR 06/08 Put 48.23 +0.6 44.7 39.75 253K 279K 47
No good. Rising on rising volume.
QCOM 06/05 Put 28.13 -0.75 31.5 25 15M 15M 33.50
RE 06/11 Put 60.48 -0.35 58.55 54 379K 588K 63
REY 06/19 cup hdl 30.27 -0.21 31.15 37.38 224K 288K 28.97
SALM 06/03 cup hdl 28.49 -1.14 30.17 36.2 23K 66K 27.50
SSNC 06/15 A Wedge 13.32 -0.08 12.65 16 180K 68K 11.50
TEVA 06/04 cup hdl 64.05 -1.95 68.05 80 585K 880K 63.29
TEVA 05/15 BO 64.05 -1.95 62.1 67 585K 880K 60.50
XRAY 05/25 A Wedge 38.42 +0.31 40.35 48.25 500K 336K 37.53
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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