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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin Part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
We are keeping the plays to the best of the best and have all plays listed in the summary table to make it easy to follow the action for each session as well as our comments on the action. Our goal is get you onto the best plays and to have a report that is very functional for you to use.
BONUS PLAYS:
Downside:
AMGN (Amgen--$41.32; -1.71; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/a/amgn.html
STATUS: Put. AMGN plowed lower in early June, got some good news and gapped up, but then ran out of steam at the 18 day MVA Tuesday and Wednesday. It stared lower today on another jump in volume. We are looking to take advantage of this drop back down with some put positions.
Volume: 19.212M Avg Volume: 12.513M
BUY POINT: $40.9 Volume=19M Target=$37 Stop=$44.20
POSITION: AMQ SJ - July $50 put (-83 delta) Aggressive as they are July, but a good delta for the price.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amgn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS
New Pre-Announcement:
CBSH (Commerce Bancshares--$45.6; -0.57; optionable): Regional bank
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/c/cbsh.html
Forecast to announce a split on 7-10-02 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 2-6-98 at a stock price of $64. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-17-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming the handle to a 9-week base that sits on top of a larger base formed in 2001 and that CBSH broke out of in March. Money flow and relative strength are of course very good given how well the stock has held up relative to the overall market. Accumulation weeks lead distribution weeks in this base 3 to 1. A bit before the announcement, but the stock is in a good pattern with good accumulation.
Volume: 90.8K Avg Volume: 122.363K
BUY POINT: $46.67 Volume=185K Target=$56 Stop=$43.85
POSITION: Stock and/or QSB LH - Dec. $40 call (79 delta) or QSB LI - Dec. $45 call (63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cbsh.html
Continuing Pre-Announcements: PHM still flying!
HSIC (Henry Schein--$48.75; -0.56; optionable): Wholesale medical equipment
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/h/hsic.html
Forecast to announce a split on 8-6-02 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that HSIC has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-5-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. HSIC broke out of a base in April, ran up to 50, but stalled out after some decent moves up the 18 day MVA. It has not come back to test the 50 day MVA (47.95) and bounced last week and Monday on some decent volume. On news of a Supreme Court ruling allowing states to assist citizens in suing HMO's, a lot of stocks in the medical sector took an unwarranted hit. HSIC fell on very low volume today. We think it will be a good pick up coming off the 50 day MVA.
Volume: 160.8K Avg Volume: 288.909K
BUY POINT: $50.21 Volume=430K Target=$60 Stop=$47.50
POSITION: HQE JI - Oct. 45 call (67 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hsic.html
HUG (Hughes Supply--$41.6; +0.04; optionable): Working on another date for this one.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that HUG has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-21-02 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/h/hug.html
STATUS: Cup. Tried the move Wednesday on strong volume, but came back. Today it showed a doji on below average volume as it looks to be forming a handle as we thought. We like the pattern a lot and are looking for that breakout. The accumulation in the short base is good with accumulation weeks ahead of distribution weeks 4 to 1.
Volume: 165.8K Avg Volume: 167.5K
BUY POINT: $43.09 Volume=250K Target=$52 Stop=$39.50
POSITION: Stock and/or HUG JG - Oct. $35 call (82 delta) or HUG JH - Oct. $30 call (66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hug.html
PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
New:
TRBS (Texas Regional Bancshares--$49.35; -0.53; no options): Splits 3:2 on 7-01-02
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/t/trbs.html
STATUS: A pre-split that has formed an abrupt, v-shaped cup with handle. A strong sell off in early June has led to a strong rebound up to 50, and now a handle is being formed on below average volume. The pattern shows accumulation weeks ahead of distribution weeks 3 to 1; solid accumulation. Good buying. Relative strength is ready to breakout and money flow is leading the way higher. There are no options and we would shy away from this one at the price, but the cup with handle with good accumulation can give us a nice breakout and move up after the split as well.
Volume: 39K Avg Volume: 60.045K
BUY POINT: $51.25 Volume=11K Target=$61.51 Stop=$47.50
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trbs.html
Update:
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$22.76; +0.19; no options): Medical labs; Splits 3:2 on 7-17-02
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
STATUS: Test of breakout. ERES tried to make the move today but was unable to muster the volume and settled for a slight gain. It is showing some momentum, so we are going to stick with it here and look for the stock to move again for some new positions.
Volume: 126K Avg Volume: 96.227K
BUY POINT: $23.06 Volume=150K Target=$26 Stop=$21.20
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eres.html
CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS
AZO (Autozone--$81.78; -0.12; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Had to update this one again because it continues to look good in the ascending wedge that has formed after breaking out of its 6.5 month cup with handle base. Accumulation weeks are ahead of distribution weeks in the patter 6 to 3; very good accumulation. It has been so quiet it has been ignored of late. We are looking for a strong volume breakout to take some positions and get another good move from this stock.
Volume: 839.3K Avg Volume: 1.011M
BUY POINT: $83.50 Volume=1.5M Target=$99.50 Stop=$77.66
POSITION: AZO IO - Sept. 75 call (71 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/azo.html
POST-SPLITS BEST PLAYS
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$29.30; +0.59; optionable): Education and training
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: After breaking out of its 8-month cup with handle base in April, COCO has formed another smaller cup with handle base on top of the 50 day MVA. That is a position of strength to based and then breakout again. A strong price move today, but it was not followed by strong volume. Money flow is excellent and relative strength is breaking out already. Accumulation is excellent in this small base at 3 weeks to 0 distribution weeks. This could be an excellent entry point if it can generate some volume.
Volume: 372.8K Avg Volume: 340.5K
BUY POINT: $29.59 Volume=450K Target=$35.55 Stop=$27.25
POSITION: UCS KE - Nov. $25 call (73 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
PRV (Province Healthcare--$25.3; -0.7; optionable): Hospitals
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/p/prv.html
STATUS: Testing the trendline. PRV broke out in early June and then pulled back to the trendline and bounced Wednesday on some good volume. Today hospitals were hit by that Supreme Court ruling, but PRV sold on very low volume. That is what we like to see, and we are looking to pick up this strong stock in a rally back up after this little selling today.
Volume: 253.1K Avg Volume: 554.181K
BUY POINT: $26.35 Volume=600K Target=$30 Stop=$24
POSITION: PRV LD - Dec. $20 call (80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/prv.html
End Part 2 of 3
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us stock market
top stock pick
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