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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/28/2010
CVD (Covance--$58.37; -0.53; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
After Hours: $58.94
EARNINGS: 01/27/2010
STATUS: CVD tried the breakout Thursday on its earnings report, but as the market sold off it gave up the move. CVD has set up something of a cup with handle since September, consolidating a May to late July run. It held its ground while the market sold, a bit choppy yes, but holding up the pattern. Going to be patient and let CVD show us the new breakout and give us the next run higher.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CVD.wmv
Volume: 3.421M Avg Volume: 713.4K
BUY POINT: $59.56 Volume=1M Target=$69.88 Stop=$55.82
POSITION: CVD EK - May $55c (66 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 01/28/2010
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical--$335.01; -4.20; optionable): Surgical devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isrg.html
After Hours: $334.94
EARNINGS: 01/21/2010
STATUS: Gap test. ISRG gapped higher on earnings, gapping out of a three week lateral consolidation. We really like gaps; not to play them on the gap necessarily (though that is fun and lucrative day trading), but after they gap and set up the next move. Earnings season is great for this: we have done it with AMZN and others in the past after they gapped on earnings. Anyway, ISRG stepped back Monday and Tuesday, tried to start back upside Wednesday, but in the Thursday market selling it slid back modestly. It may take a few more sessions to rest a bit after the gap. The key here is patience, letting it make its test, and then when it starts back up and closes over the last high, that is when we move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ISRG.wmv
Volume: 549.243K Avg Volume: 502.533K
BUY POINT: $340.11 Volume=700K Target=$374.75 Stop=$327.65
POSITION: AUA DH - Apr. $340c (52 delta)
Play Date: 01/28/2010
SOA (Solutia, Inc.--$14.01; +1.34; optionable): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/soa.html
After Hours: $14.01
EARNINGS: 01/27/2010
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. SOA gapped higher Thursday on the heels of solid earnings. It filled the gap intraday and rebounded; great that is out of the way. SOA was a new issue in March 2008 so it is relatively new. Nice strong March to September rally, broken up by that May to July consolidation. The current 4.5 month pattern has laid the foundation for a new run higher. Looks like it may be starting Thursday as SOA gapped out of the larger pattern and something of a flag formed the past three weeks. Ready to move in as SOA continues higher.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SOA.wmv
Volume: 3.993M Avg Volume: 1.334M
BUY POINT: $14.16 Volume=1.8M Target=$17.94 Stop=$12.93
POSITION: SOA FV - June $12.50c (65 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 01/28/2010
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$44.56; -1.53; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $44.55
EARNINGS: 02/09/2010
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Strong mover no question, but after a long rally CTSH has set up a 6 week head and shoulders pattern and is threatening a breakdown. It made a new price high the second week of January, but MACD made a much lower peak; a divergent top telling us the stock is weakening. It has sold back to the 50 day EMA (45.03) and the November/December consolidation. Indeed, after selling back it tried to hold that level and bounced Monday through Wednesday, something of a bear flag. Thursday CTSH turned lower and broke to a new low on this leg lower. Volume jumped well above average. Ready to move in as CTSH continues lower. A move to the target lands a 52%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CTSH.wmv
Volume: 5.163M Avg Volume: 3.393M
BUY POINT: $44.32 Volume=4.5M Target=$41.25 Stop=$46.31
POSITION: UPU OI - Mar. $45p (-47 delta)
Play Date: 01/28/2010
PCLN (Priceline.com--$201.68; -5.84; optionable): Online hotel, travel bidding
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
After Hours: $200.00
EARNINGS: 02/17/2010
STATUS: Umbrella top. PCLN has been a juggernaut, gapping higher in August and again in November on earnings. Over the past 2.5 months, however, it has slowed, forming a broad rounded top also known as an umbrella top. It has slipped back to a key level, the consolidation point after it gapped higher in November. It found that level and has worked laterally. It has not broken lower as the rest of the market sold, but if it does break this level the drop is likely significant as PCLN has that gap it can fill. If it breaks lower we move in and play it down to our target, a bit above the gap up point, but plenty to make us some 'safe' money, i.e. not trying to squeeze every drop out. We can take partial profits at our target (a 45%ish gain) and then see if it continues lower toward 177 and ramps up the gains even further.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PCLN.wmv
Volume: 672.408K Avg Volume: 1.416M
BUY POINT: $199.77 Volume=1.8M Target=$185.00 Stop=$208.00
POSITION: PNE OA - Mar. $200p (-38 delta)
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Upside:
Play Date: 01/27/2010
ASH (Ashland--$41.92; -0.92; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ash.html
After Hours: $41.92
EARNINGS: 01/26/2010
STATUS: Triangle. Could not make the break Thursday, but made a lower volume test. This is actually giving us a better entry point if ASH can hold the break and then resume the upside move. We will watch for a rebound that can hold the move to the close and that is when we move in. To recap: ASH is back in gear. It set up a 5 month triangle but could not make a breakout. Not until Tuesday when it gapped higher on stronger earnings, clearing the January highs. Wednesday it side-stepped, but if it can continue we are ready to move in and see what ASH can do.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ASH.wmv
Volume: 1.152M Avg Volume: 1.22M
BUY POINT: $43.03 Volume=1.5M Target=$49.89 Stop=$40.02
POSITION: ASH DH - Apr. $40c (59 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 01/26/2010
COH (Coach--$34.87; -0.14; optionable): Handbags, accessories
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
After Hours: $34.87
EARNINGS: 01/20/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. COH has continued the rebound in its flag pattern, gapping higher Thursday, tapping the 10 day EMA, and then falling to negative on rising, above average volume. If it continues lower that is when we move in. to recap: Steady, long uptrend that was met with a breakaway gap lower a week back on COH's earnings report. The move gapped COH below the 50 day EMA and it sold from there. The past three sessions COH has recovered but on lower, and lower trade as it bounced. Few buyers stepping in on the bounce. Tuesday it tapped some resistance at 35 and faded from the high. Looking for COH to roll over at 35 and head and shoulders lower, continuing the current leg lower. A move to our initial target lands us a 52%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/COH.wmv
Volume: 6.524M Avg Volume: 4.441M
BUY POINT: $34.32 Volume=5.5M Target=$32.05 Stop=$35.88
POSITION: CKO OI - Mar. $35p (-51 delta) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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