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Begin Part 3 of 3
PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
New:
COH (Coach--$55.00; +0.74; optionable): Splits 2:1 on 7-5-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: COH was in some trouble just recently but with some good earnings results it moved back over the 50 day MVA (53.59) early last week. Friday volume kicked up sharply to above average levels as the stock moved up off the 50 day MVA. That is what you want so see: higher volume at the 50 day MVA on gains indicates that the big money is buying at that level. On a pre-split that is all we need: good earnings, test of the 50 day MVA, volume ramping up. We will look for the move higher and then get in and capture the run.
Volume: 597.9K Avg Volume: 475.363K
BUY POINT: $55.51 Volume=500K Target=$60 Stop=$51.62
POSITION: COH HJ - Aug. $50 call (74 delta) and/or stock. We prefer options on this play as we can leverage our way into bigger profits.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
JILL (J. Jill Group--$36.02; -0.64; optionable): Splits 3:2 on 7-1-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jill.html
STATUS: JILL tested the 10 day MVA (25.30) Tuesday and started moving higher. It peaked at 37.28 Friday and pulled back on rising though still below average volume. Not bad for the heavy selling the rest of the market suffered. What we expect is to see the stock pull back to test that 10 or 18 day MVA (34.46) and then a bounce higher. We are not trying to capture a huge move on these plays, just the move into the split.
Volume: 205.4K Avg Volume: 267.318K
BUY POINT: After a test of 34.50, buy at $34.80 Volume=300K Target=$39.96 Stop=$33.25
POSITION: JUI IF - Sept. $30 call (83 delta) and/or stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jill.html
Continuing:
THC (Tenet Healthcare--$74.75; -0.65; optionable): Splits 3:2 on 7-01-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thc.html
STATUS: THC was on a solid pre-split run when the Supreme Court ruling on HMO's came out. The stock sank Thursday and again Friday on some rising, above average volume. After hitting 74 .10 on the low, however, THC was moving back up. We believe the pullback was an overreaction to the news, and Friday's rebound on higher volume indicates it will try to rise again. We are going to add to our positions when it clears the 10 day MVA (75.46).
Volume: 3.118M Avg Volume: 1.64M
BUY POINT: $75.55 Volume=2M Target=$80.51 Stop=$73.50
POSITION: THC HN - Aug. $70 call (delta 74)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/thc.html
TRBS (Texas Regional Bancshares--$49.74; +0.39; no options): Splits 3:2 on 7-01-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trbs.html
STATUS: Still in that short and abrupt v-shaped cup with handle showing that good 3 to 1 accumulation during the base. Relative strength is breaking out now ahead of the price move, a bullish sign. Again, there are no options but the pattern shows good accumulation and can thus give us a nice breakout and move up after the split as well.
Volume: 59.6K Avg Volume: 60.136K
BUY POINT: $51.25 Volume=11K Target=$61.51 Stop=$47.50
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trbs.html
POST-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: COCO blasted off Friday.
DF (Dean Foods--$38.35; +0.71; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/df.html
STATUS: DF suffered a bit of volatility in late May/early June, but recovered over the 50 day MVA two weeks back and has continued the double bottom/ascending wedge pattern of the past three months. It had some strong volume on the move over the 50 day MVA, but ran out of steam at 39. It has now had another 2 weeks to move laterally and prepare for a move higher. Volume was up Friday as the stock made a good move after testing the 18 day MVA on the low (37.68). Relative strength is already breaking out; this time it looks ready.
Volume: 1.076M Avg Volume: 510.545K
BUY POINT: $38.76 Volume=110K Target=$45 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: DF LG - Dec. $35 call (71 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/df.html
FOSL (Fossil--$22.79; +0.22; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: FOSL has been toying with breaking out over 23 for the past two weeks, unable to muster the big volume to make and hold the until Friday when FOSL tested the 18 day MVA on the low (21.98) and rebounded sharply. We are looking for the breakout on some more strong volume.
Volume: 431.6K Avg Volume: 133.409K
BUY POINT: $23.42 Volume=200K Target=$28 Stop=$21.65
POSITION: AFU LD - Dec. $20 call (75 delta Low OI) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
SRCL (Stericycle--$38.57; -0.69; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
STATUS: SRCL just screamed on up off of the 50 day MVA after it split. Last week it ran up to 40 and finally peaked out on this move. It has pulled back Thursday and Friday, Friday tapping at the 10 day MVA on the low (38.08) and rebounding slightly on rising volume. The stock has been so strong this might be all the pullback it gives us. Still, we would look for a test of the 18 day MVA (37.11) early in the week. Either way, if it starts back up we will be looking at picking up more positions in this stock.
Volume: 492.2K Avg Volume: 293.09K
BUY POINT: $39.25 Volume=450K Target=$45 Stop=$36.55
POSITION: URL KG - Nov. $35 call (71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/srcl.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
We have put all plays in a summary table that contains the date the stock was put on the report (so you can go back and check out the details of the play) and the other pertinent information. This provides more information than the watchlist summaries and still contains comments when appropriate. VIEW THIS IN COURIER NEW, 12 FOR BEST RESULTS. You can also easily print the table from the website (www.investmenthouse.com) from the 'current reports' section. If you just want to print the table you can cut and paste it to a word document setting the font to Courier New size 12. Just left click on the beginning of the table and drag to the table end. After selecting, right click and select 'copy.' Paste into your word processor. Select it all and choose Courier New, font size 12.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ACF 06/17 Put 26.2 +0.43 29.2 25.2 2.2M 2M 33
Bouncing around at 25, the target. If still in it, look at closing it out on the next test of 25.
ACXM 05/30 A Wedge 17.08 -0.19 17.7 21 1.4M 636K 16.05
Tapping at the 50 day MVA on the low with a sharp rebound and a volume spike. May be ready to move now.
ADVP 06/22 Put 27.16 +0.23 25.25 21 1.6M 2.4M 28
AET 06/13 Saucer 50.38 -1.09 50.35 60 2.8M 1.2M 46.83
A pullback testing the 18 day MVA, but on stronger volume than we would like. Want it to hold above that 18 day (49.29).
AMGN 06/20 Put 40.45 -0.87 40.9 37 19M 13M 44.20
Down Friday on above average volume once again but showing a doji.
ATK 06/06 Put 69.33 -1.87 104.4 60 396K 349K 71
Back down to the 50 day MVA on rising volume. Critical area. If it holds we have to exit.
AXP 06/19 Put 37.3 -0.11 37.75 34.05 10M 4.7M 41
Gapped lower but then rallied back to close fractionally lower on some massive volume. Don't like that action but will see how it handles the to day at 38.
AZO 06/18 Test BO 80.96 -0.82 83.5 99.5 885K 1M 77.66
Had to test 80 again on continued below average volume. Still very much in the pattern.
BAC 06/11 Put 70.26 -1.84 69.9 65 10M 5.6M 73
Tanking back lower again on some massive volume.
BBBY 05/11 Flat 36.26 +1.76 36.28 42 8.1M 3.1M 33
Nice gap higher on the excellent earnings and sales. Salvaged the stock and we can let it continue to base out for us.
BJ 05/25 Put 41.3 -1.05 42.7 40 427K 587K 45
Now it is falling as we wanted.
BLI 06/11 Test BO 18.92 +0.02 18.5 22 1.3M 609K 17.30
Moving laterally on continued strong volume, unable to break 19.
BPOP 06/15 cup hdl 33.22 +0.38 32.35 36.5 72K 110K 30.50
A doji on some very light volume Friday. Not bad action at all after the volume spike Friday.
CBSH 06/20 BO 44.94 -0.66 46.67 56 67K 121K 43.85
Not an auspicious debut, selling back to the 50 day MVA but on very low volume. A bit steep for a handle to our liking, but still in the pattern.
CCRD 05/11 Put 17.23 +0.3 15.2 12 496K 171K 16.50
Had to close this one out Friday.
CCRN 05/08 Test BO 36.05 -0.51 32.7 39.75 148K 514K 31.70
A very low volume test of the breakout. Needs to hold here at 36.
CHRZ 04/16 A Wedge 4.14 +0.04 4.2 5.9 102K 73K 4.10
The full test has held the 50 day MVA. We will see if it can bounce; if not we will sell.
CHS 05/11 Test 50 38.27 -0.83 37.35 43.98 391K 666K 35.95
Testing the 50 day MVA on low volume. We looked at this several times but the lower volume is okay for now.
CMPC 06/12 Test BO 3.75 -0.01 4.1 5.63 77K 145K 3.55
A small tech holding the 50 day MVA and the pattern. Not all techs are bad.
COCO 06/20 cup hdl 30.92 +1.62 29.59 35.55 775K 343K 27.25
Strong move on strong volume Friday!
COCO 06/01 Test 50 30.92 +1.62 28.1 34 775K 343K 26.20
COH 06/22 PreSplt 55 +0.74 55.51 60 598K 475K 51.62
CTX 05/11 Put 57.95 -0.01 53.5 49 1.5M 1.2M 56
Having some trouble with 58 for the second session. We are looking for that test of 56 to 54 to give us a better exit.
CUB 06/19 Put 24.79 -0.46 23.99 20.5 121K 132K 26.75
Tested the 50 day MVA Friday and closed well off of that test. Looks ready for the fall.
CYMI 06/03 Put 35.94 +0.62 39.45 33.8 1.9M 1.5M 44
Holding at 35 after Thursday's big drop. We may need to go ahead and close it out here with a decent gain.
DF 06/22 A Wedge 38.35 +0.71 38.76 45 1.1M 511K 36.25
DNR 05/21 cup hdl 9.9 0 9.56 12 129K 87K 8.89
Stronger volume Friday but holding up for now.
EDMC 06/22 cup hdl 41.49 +1.44 42.05 53 913K 223K 39.50
EME 05/21 Put 56.9 +0.31 57.15 50 101K 90K 60
Testing the 50 day MVA with another doji Friday. It is trying to turn up here, so we need to close it if there is a move over the 50 day MVA on stronger volume.
ERES 06/18 PreSplt 23.05 +0.29 23.06 26 97K 98K 21.20
Small gain Friday on low volume. No problems right now.
EXPE 06/04 Put 67.63 -0.98 69.6 63.04 1.3M 1.9M 74
Starting the fall again.
FISV 06/18 Put 36.09 -1.33 38.45 34.5 2.9M 1.8M 41.25
Tank city.
FITB 05/25 Put 64.87 -0.05 66.1 62.62 3.4M 1.8M 68
Gapped way down but then had to rally back up for a fractional loss on some heavy volume.
FNF 05/22 Test 18 31 -0.74 30.6 35 685K 536K 28.46
A lower volume pullback after a good move. Should hold at 30.50 or better.
FOE 06/01 A Wedge 29.91 +0.07 30.34 35 196K 190K 28.50
On the brink of a breakout but cannot muster the volume.
FOSL 06/22 BO 22.79 +0.22 23.42 28 432K 133K 21.65
FTEK 06/12 Test BO 6.71 -0.05 6.92 8.25 19K 66K 6.37
A doji on the 18 day MVA on no volume. Looks ready to move back up.
FTEK 06/01 A Wedge 6.71 -0.05 6.65 8 19K 66K 5.95
GB 05/28 Put 24.91 -0.29 24.9 21.3 33K 101K 27
Just won't give it up. Going to close it out if it does not fall Monday.
GGUY 06/15 Test BO 3.77 +0.12 3.95 6 42K 140K 3.67
Decent bounce from the 50 day MVA but no volume. Still waiting for it to hit the buy on strong volume.
GLYN 05/18 BO 21.8 +0.55 20.66 24 49K 175K 19.12
Held the 50 day MVA and bounced but no volume yet.
GME 06/06 Test 18 21 -0.9 23.75 29 127K 264K 22.40
Not good at all. Never hit the buy. Dropping for now.
GRMN 05/14 cup hdl 23.08 +0.06 23.4 28 84K 124K 22.05
Struggling at the 50 day MVA.
HCA 06/10 Test BO 50.4 -0.51 49.6 59 3.5M 2.2M 47.50
Very nice doji on the 10 day MVA Friday with rising volume. Good pullback for another bounce.
HET 06/08 Put 46.27 -0.62 45.5 40 1M 1.1M 47.25
Fighting at the 50 day MVA.
HP 06/01 Put 35.5 -0.45 37.45 33 298K 320K 39.80
Fell again on strong volume buy showed a doji and recovered much of the loss.
HSIC 06/20 BO 48.1 -0.65 50.21 60 271K 288K 47.50
Testing the 50 day MVA on some rising volume. Need to watch it here. If it breaches the 50 day MVA we exit.
HSIC 05/15 BO 48.1 -0.65 49.4 56.9 271K 288K 46.50
HUG 06/18 BO 42 +0.4 43.09 52 179K 168K 39.50
JAH 06/19 BO 19.4 -0.24 19.05 23.5 110K 61K 17.25
A day of rest Friday, holding its ground but on rising volume.
JILL 06/22 PreSplt 36.02 -0.64 34.8 39.96 205K 267K 33.25
KSWS 06/18 PreSplt 49.3 +0.46 48.25 52.5 169K 82K 44.50
A very nice move, but Friday it showed a doji on high volume. Splits Monday. If you have been in, think about some profits if it gaps higher Monday and then starts to sell. For new positions we are going to let it work for us a bit more as many retailers have performed well post split.
LNY 05/18 Put 27.26 +0.11 24.26 21 326K 248K 26.25
Closed it Friday, but it has showed a doji and may test lower to 26.
MAR 06/12 Put 39.75 +0.45 38.25 34 1.2M 861K 41
Above the 200 day Friday on rising, above average volume. Getting ready to shut it down unless it tests the 50 day MVA Monday and reverses on even stronger volume.
MHP 06/18 Put 58 -1.7 59.55 56 787K 554K 61.25
Hit the buy point Friday as it tanked on strong volume.
MMSI 06/22 cup hdl 18.79 +0.13 19.5 23.4 78K 160K 18.14
MNTR 06/15 Put 37.61 -0.39 35.95 32.2 112K 117K 38
Testing the simple 50 day MVA on rising volume. Showed a doji here that could signal some selling. It needs to break below 38 Monday.
MUR 06/04 Put 86.99 -1.2 89.5 84 659K 269K 93.50
Gapped down to 85 and then rallied on strong volume. We will look for more selling early this week to get it to the target. If it cannot break 85 early this week after testing that level we will take the gain.
NEU 06/06 Put 36.8 -1.24 40.9 36 266K 178K 43
Tanking hard and close to the target.
NFB 06/22 Test 18 38.91 -0.39 39.2 45 710K 648K 37.50
A very nice test of the 18 day MVA. Looks ready to bounce again.
NYT 06/19 Test BO 51.55 -1.24 51.1 61 1.4M 491K 47.80
A pullback after a strong volume. Volume a bit higher than we like but the move up was stronger.
ODSY 06/05 A Wedge 34.76 +1.41 36.1 42 40K 179K 33.57
Looks as if it could be ready though it needs some more volume.
PDCO 05/23 Test 50 50.59 -1.92 49 57 585K 309K 45.75
Big drop Friday to the 18 day MVA on some sharply higher volume. It needs to hold here as it has had a recent test of the 50 day MVA already. We don't want it hanging around at the 50 day MVA.
PFCB 06/06 Put 33.45 -1.38 32.9 28 557K 538K 35.50
Tanking again now on some rising volume. Need it to fall faster this week to pump up the options. If 30 holds on the selling we will consider taking profits.
PHM 05/25 Flat 58.63 +0.03 55.95 67.45 1.1M 708K 52.03
A day of rest after a strong move.
PNRA 06/17 PreSplt 71.47 +0.72 70.15 76.75 321K 440K 65.24
A nice recovery Friday. Splits Tuesday so we will look for some more heading into the split. We will also consider holding positions through the actual split on this one.
PNRA 05/18 Test 50 71.47 +0.72 71 80 321K 440K 66.03
PRU 04/22 cup hdl 33.15 -0.73 33.3 38 2.5M 2.2M 32.50
Broke the 50 day MVA on rising volume. 33 should be support.
PRV 06/20 Test 18 24.7 -0.6 26.35 30 259K 550K 24
Looks as if it is going to test the 50 day MVA.
PRV 06/06 BO 24.7 -0.6 25.1 30 259K 550K 23.70
QCOM 06/05 Put 26.12 -0.21 31.5 25 30M 15M 33.50
Unable to move higher in spite of the good news.
RF 04/16 A Wedge 35 -0.25 34.96 40.5 642K 490K 34
A doji at the 50 day MVA moving average on strong volume. Looks ready to bounce back up.
SRCL 06/22 Test BO 38.57 -0.69 39.25 45 492K 293K 36.55
TFX 06/22 A Wedge 57.45 +0.63 58.35 70.1 418K 126K 55.15
THC 06/22 PreSplt 74.75 -0.65 75.55 80.51 3.1M 1.6M 73.50
THC 06/17 PreSplt 74.75 -0.65 75.55 80.5 3.1M 1.6M 73.50
THQI 05/23 Put 28.05 -1.81 31.9 25.1 1.2M 1.1M 34
Tanking again on stronger volume. Good.
TKR 05/25 Put 24 +0.22 23.4 19 299K 304K 25.60
Held on again on rising volume. Time to make the exit more or less flat.
TRBS 06/20 cup hdl 49.74 +0.39 51.25 61.51 60K 60K 47.50
WB 05/08 Test 50 37.97 -0.16 38.97 45 4.3M 2.6M 36.45
Gapped below the 50 day MVA but rallied to recover on strong volume. This twin top action is not good.
WEN 06/01 BO 40.48 -0.87 38.6 44 1.7M 849K 36.90
Pulling back after a good run, but with more volume than we would like. Needs to hold 39.
WFMI 06/01 BO 44.96 -1.03 49.1 57 751K 610K 46
Closed out the position.
WHI 06/08 Test BO 23.15 +0.35 19.59 23.5 91K 67K 19.25
Very low volume as it holds its gains. Not bad at all.
WM 05/08 Test 18 38.08 +0.28 38.8 44 5.6M 3.6M 37
Wow what a recovery. Strong volume move over the 50 day MVA on very strong volume.
WTSLA 06/17 cup hdl 23.13 -0.22 25.34 30.75 197K 321K 22.85
Not bad at all, testing the 50 day MVA on continued low volume. Still in the pattern.
YUM 06/01 Test 50 32.46 -0.43 64.21 68 2.2M 770K 60
Spiked higher on some stronger volume, but could not hold the high.
ZQK 06/12 Test BO 25.25 -0.3 27.1 32 506K 251K 25.20
Sold back to the 18 day MVA, showing a huge volume spike. Needs to hold here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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