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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin Part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Friday plays:
ABCW: Nice breakout!
HUM: A doji on stronger volume. Looks good.
ORB: Still in the pattern.
Best Plays:
1) HARB: Ready to move higher.
2) NCOG and AVY breaking down.
3) Continuing stocks shaping up: TSN looks ready to bounce again. USPH: making the move on good volume. USPI: Nice test of the 18 day MVA.
New Plays
Upside
HARB (Harbor Florida Bancshares--$23.96; +1.57; no options): Savings & Loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/harb.html
STATUS: Wedge. ABCW worked out so well we went looking for more. HARB broke out of 7-month cup with handle base in April, ran up to 24, and has formed this wedge/trading range on top of the 50 day MVA at 22 and the top at 24. Accumulation in the wedge is 2 to 0. Relative strength is already breaking out. It looks as if it wants to go higher as well now.
Volume: 123.8K Avg Volume: 39.409K
BUY POINT: $24.11 Volume=85K Target=$29 Stop=$21.75
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/harb.html
Downside
AVY (Avery Dennison--$63.76; -1.41; optionable): Paper products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avy.html
STATUS: A good performer off of the September bottom, but it double topped in May and then crashed through the 50 day MVA on some big volume late in the month. It has now come back up to test that breach, stalling at the 50 day MVA (64.45) the past four sessions. Friday the stock tested 65.69 once again and then rolled over on rising volume. We are looking for it to fall to the March and April lows near 58. It may simply need a new base, but that move back down to the bottom of the range will give us a nice gain.
Volume: 399.9K Avg Volume: 403.272K
BUY POINT: $63.49 Volume=400K Target=$59 Stop=$66
POSITION: AVY VN - Oct. $70 puts (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/avy.html
NCOG (NCO Group--$21.55; -0.85; optionable): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncog.html
STATUS: Put. NCOG made a lower high in April and rolled over to the 200 day MVA (22.22), closing at that level Thursday. Friday it gapped higher and then broke below the 200 day on rising, above average volume. It has formed somewhat of a head and shoulders pattern with a very weak right shoulder that rolled over Friday. It is still close to the 200 day MVA, so we are looking at positions from here without a test of the 200 day MVA though it could do that early Monday before continuing lower.
Volume: 381.8K Avg Volume: 204K
BUY POINT: $21.3 Volume=350K Target=$18.04 Stop=$24
POSITION: GCQ UE - Sept. $25 put (-60 delta) or GCQ UF - Sept. $30 put (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ncog.html
Upside revisited: In keeping with the game plan to focus money in winners we look at TSN as it is in another buy point.
TSN (Tyson Foods--$15; -0.08; optionable): Chicken parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsn.html
STATUS: After a strong break to a new high Monday and Tuesday, TSN pulled back to test the move as the market sold off hard. TSN used lighter volume when it sold back and held above the 18 day MVA (14.79) and started back up. A lower volume pullback to test the break to a new high that held above the breakout point. One of the leaders in the market, and we want to take a few more positions as it continues to rise.
Volume: 1.025M Avg Volume: 962.09K
BUY POINT: $15.15 Volume=1M Target=$18 Stop=$14.50
POSITION: Stock and/or TSN JV - Oct. $12.50 call (83 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tsn.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK, ICUI; RMCI, and JNC.
JNC: Sold out of the position.
LLL: The put looks ready to roll down.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
SRCL (Stericycle--$38.57; -0.69): Finally giving a pullback, tapping the 10 day MVA on the low on some slightly higher volume. Looks as if we are finally going to get another entry point on a move over 39.25.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
Here is what we have on the portfolio revamp (top vote getters thus far): PG; MMM; NOK; JNJ; LUV; SEBL. Get your choices in soon.
Continuing plays:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABCW 06/20 A Wedge 23.4 +0.51 23.35 27.55 117K 49K 21.65
Super move on volume.
ACN 05/11 Put 19.7 -0.27 19.7 15.65 2.4M 3.2M 21.30
Just won't break down. A doji Friday. Will close if no down move Monday.
ACV 05/22 Put 51.28 -0.9 53.95 50.5 285K 202K 55.25
AVY 06/22 Put 63.76 -1.41 63.49 59 400K 403K 66
Falling on higher volume again.
BLI 06/11 Test BO 18.92 +0.02 18.5 22 1.3M 609K 17.30
Holding steady on good volume.
BLL 06/06 Put 43.66 +0.08 41.54 38 647K 466K 44
Trying to break the 50 day MVA but not able yet.
BOBE 05/22 A Wedge 31.94 -0.11 31.9 38 279K 242K 30.25
Testing the move and holding up well.
BWA 06/08 Put 58 -0.31 59.99 55 350K 345K 63
Fell again but does not want to break below 57 yet.
BZH 06/18 Put 78.58 -0.62 75.95 72 480K 525K 81
Ran into the 50 day MVA and fell a bit. We will see if it falls this week.
CBSH 06/18 BO 44.94 -0.66 46.67 56 67K 121K 43.85
Not there yet; low volume pullback again.
CCRN 05/08 Test BO 36.05 -0.51 32.7 39.75 148K 514K 31.70
So far okay, but a very low volume high. We don't want to let it go lower.
CHGO 05/28 Test 18 8.51 -0.08 7.75 10 87K 303K 7.21
Not a bad test at all.
CLF 05/15 Test BO 27.02 -0.08 28.2 34 214K 79K 26.90
COH 06/03 Put 55 +0.74 49.65 45 598K 475K 52
May be ready to move back up. Time to exit.
CTSH 06/06 Put 48.97 +0.35 44.65 40.25 94K 165K 47.25
Testing the 50 day. Time to exit.
DESI 05/29 Test 18 7 -0.3 7.25 11 77K 133K 6.74
DLTR 05/09 Flat 38.17 +0.42 38.95 33 1.4M 1.2M 36.22
Holding at the 50 day on rising volume.
DROOY 05/21 A Wedge 4.9 -0.14 4.85 7 6.2M 4.2M 4.30
Holding up okay. Volatile.
ELK 06/01 DB hdl 27.6 -0.41 27.46 34.96 83K 101K 24.95
Lower volume. Okay for now.
ENC 05/06 Rv H&S 8.85 +0.45 7.3 9.5 35K 35K 6.79
Plowing higher and higher.
EXAS 06/15 cup hdl 14.83 -0.06 15.3 18.5 282K 93K 12
Just held its ground.
FDP 05/21 A Wedge 27.24 -1.18 24.75 29.7 161K 240K 23.02
Low volume pullback.
FHCC 06/11 cup hdl 29 -0.35 29.85 36 827K 975K 27.76
Still looking good. Low volume pullback.
FORG 06/15 Test BO 5.38 -0.16 5.15 6.85 355K 134K 4.20
FRX 06/10 Put 69.5 -1.94 72.45 68 1.3M 1.2M 75
Still tanking.
GILD 06/15 Put 31.18 -1.61 32.49 28.25 4.6M 3.4M 34.50
Ditto.
HARB 06/22 BO 23.96 +1.57 24.11 29 124K 39K 21.75
HI 06/11 Put 49.68 -0.12 52.25 48 2.7M 3M 55.50
Doji. Close to the target. If it cannot break below 49 exit.
HLT 05/06 Put 13.79 +0.19 14.3 12 1.7M 1.9M 15.80
Gapped lower but rallied to close at the 18 day MVA.
HLYW 05/29 Test 18 20.25 +0.49 19.25 27 778K 801K 17.9
Looking good on a stronger volume move higher.
HNT 05/11 Test 50 27.65 -0.46 29.25 33 1.1M 765K 27.50
Below the 50 day, but on the S. Ct. ruling. Don't think this will last.
HOTT 06/12 Test BO 26.71 -0.16 27.05 32 322K 705K 24.64
Testing the 18 day MVA on low volume.
HOTT 05/29 Test BO 26.71 -0.16 26.5 32 322K 705K 24.64
HUM 06/20 cup hdl 16.55 -0.21 17.34 21 1.2M 1.2M 16
Doji on rising volume, holding the 10 day MVA.
IGEN 06/17 Put 34.85 +0.23 35.15 32 132K 240K 37
Looks ready still.
KMI 06/19 Put 40.2 -0.52 40.75 37 730K 678K 43.25
Heading down but needs to break 40.
LBIX 05/06 Flat 2.4 -0.07 1.95 3.5 94K 104K 1.58
Held up well in the market.
LLL 06/10 Put 57.39 -0.51 59.1 54 1.5M 1.1M 62.50
Still looks ready to head lower.
LTR 06/15 Put 55.49 -0.61 54.95 50.25 725K 450K 57
Now tanking, undercutting the 200 day on strong volume.
MEOH 04/03 cup hdl 7.4 -0.04 7.9 9.5 142K 249K 7.35
Closed it out.
NCC 04/30 cup hdl 32.43 -0.18 31.42 37.25 1.4M 1.1M 29.75
Higher volume test of the 50 day. Not bad.
NCOG 06/22 Put 0 0 21.3 18.04 0 0 24
ORB 06/04 cup hdl 7.19 -0.21 8.02 11.94 202K 336K 7.25
PEET 06/18 A Wedge 18.06 +0.11 18.35 22 108K 219K 16.75
Trying to make the break but could not muster the volume.
RE 06/11 Put 60.05 +0.29 58.55 54 485K 582K 63
Again looks to be rolling over at the 18 day MVA, but it has left us here before.
RITA 05/28 Cup 9.82 +0.35 10.1 13.9 58K 109K 9.39
Good move but needs volume.
SAM 06/12 cup hdl 15.9 -0.02 16.85 20.5 27K 37K 15.45
SCLD 06/01 cup hdl 2.7 -0.04 3.54 4.95 19K 79K 3.15
Drying up under the 50 day MVA.
SIE 06/11 Test 18 21.4 -0.6 20 24.25 277K 238K 18
Lower volume move down to test the breakout.
SNIC 05/30 A Wedge 7.56 -0.73 8.2 11 615K 284K 6.95
Fell all the way to the 50 day MVA on continued strong volume. Has to bounce here or we will have to close it out. Was promising.
SNS 04/12 Test BO 14.05 -1.05 14.8 18 399K 97K 13.76
Hammered Friday. All we could see was the announcement of its 400th restaurant. Will look for a bounce back to 14.50 to exit if it cannot move over that level.
SNS 04/10 Dbl btm 14.05 -1.05 14.65 18 399K 97K 13.76
STT 05/20 Put 43.17 -0.48 47.35 42.5 2.8M 1.4M 51.50
A doji near the target. If it gets below 43 again we will take the gain.
TCH 06/17 Test BO 9.19 -0.74 10.3 13.5 117K 0 9.58
Tanked without ever hitting the buy. Forget it.
TMPW 05/28 Put 23.49 0 26.95 22.65 3.2M 2.5M 30.50
Continues to ride down the 18 day MVA.
TSN 05/22 Test BO 15 -0.08 15.15 18 1M 962K 14.50
UNP 06/12 Cup 64.49 -0.08 64.08 73 1.6M 1.2M 61
Looking good with a volume spike Friday.
USAP 05/13 Test 18 15.3 +0.3 15.2 19 3.6K 97K 14.14
Holding up but no volume.
USPH 06/19 cup hdl 19.73 +0.08 20.05 25 95K 91K 18.65
Still climbing. Just holding for now.
USPH 06/08 Flat 19.73 +0.08 19.1 24.85 95K 91K 17.25
USPI 05/15 Test 18 28.86 -2.64 28.05 37 620K 350K 26.09
Dropped hard to the 50 day MVA on strong volume. No news that we could see. Has to hold above 28 on the close.
VWKS 05/14 Test BO 7.14 -0.46 8.15 12.25 477K 593K 7.58
Closed the position.
WFMI 06/01 BO 44.96 -1.03 49.1 57 751K 610K 46
Closed the position.
WMT 06/17 DB hdl 54.98 -1.52 59.4 73 15M 7.7M 55.24
Did not complete the double bottom pattern.
WTW 05/23 Test BO 41.23 -0.5 43.7 50 253K 184K 40.64
Falling to the 50 day MVA on that above average volume. Not below the stop on the close or exit.
ZNT 05/23 A Wedge 31.87 +0.08 31.6 37.94 89K 34K 30
Good volume spike again on Friday. Looks good, but we need to be vigilant in this market.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
top stock pick
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