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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/30/2010
AMED (Amedisys--$54.95; -0.73; no options): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amed.html
After Hours: $54.50
EARNINGS: 1/26/2010
STATUS: ABCD. If you look at the close line chart you have a nice ABCD set up after a breakout and run from December to mid-January. That move took AMED over the October 2009 peak. After that run it is testing back, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the lows and rebounding. Snugged up to that level Friday. It is holding above the 38% Fibonacci retracement, showing its strength on this move. Money is moving the way of healthcare as it has stalled in Congress and other stocks in other sectors no longer look as appetizing. Want to see AMED bounce off this test and hold the move toward the close to give us the buy signal.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/AMED.wmv
Volume: 1.375M Avg Volume: 1.119M
BUY POINT: $55.89 Volume=1.5M Target=$67.95 Stop=$53.38
POSITION: - AMED 10F55.00 June $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 01/29/2010
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$56.72; -0.02; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
After Hours: $56.58
EARNINGS: 02/16/2010
STATUS: 38% Fibonacci retracement. TEVA broke sharply higher the third week of December, clearing a very nicely formed 5 month cup with handle base. Strong rally into early January and it is now making its test, coming back to the rising 50 day EMA, tapping that level on the Friday low and rebounding back to flat. That also keeps TEVA above the 38% Fibonacci retracement. This nice hammer doji at that level with the long tail is a good indication to enter off a test of this level. Thus, as TEVA continues higher we are looking to enter some positions.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TEVA.wmv
Volume: 4.368M Avg Volume: 4.922M
BUY POINT: $57.56 Volume=6M Target=$64.32 Stop=$53.53
POSITION: - TEVA 10F55.00 June $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 01/29/2010
IPAR (Inter Parfums--$13.31; +0.02; no options): Perfume
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ipar.html
After Hours: $13.30
EARNINGS: 2/08/2010
STATUS: Breakout test. You may not have heard of IPAR, but it is a consistent winner and it likes to split its stock. Wednesday IPAR broke sharply higher on strong volume, clearing a 4 month cup base. In the market selling Thursday and Friday it was not able to make further headway, but it held its gains nicely. Indeed, Friday it fell back to the 10 day EMA and the breakout point and then bounced sharply to close positive on stronger, above average volume. Nice quick test, and if IPAR continues higher we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/IPAR.wmv
Volume: 114.122K Avg Volume: 115K
BUY POINT: $13.52 Volume=150K Target=$16.00 Stop=$12.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/29/2010
NKTR (Nektar Therapeutics--$11.42; 0.00; no options): Drug delivery products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nktr.html
After Hours: $11.42
EARNINGS: 2/03/2010
STATUS: Flag. NKTR has made us money before and it is setting up to do so again. Big breakout the second week January, clearing a 14 week base that consolidated the March to September run. Excellent action and NKTR is showing great leadership character. Big volume on the breakout and a nice, low volume test the past week. NKTR may come back a bit more as it is still above the 18 day EMA (11.12) that is coincident with the 38% Fibonacci retracement (11.11). If it bounced from here off of this doji, great. If not and it tests further, that is fine as well: we will pick it up as it makes the break back upside off of that test.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NKTR.wmv
Volume: 512.566K Avg Volume: 741.079K
BUY POINT: $11.54 Volume=1M Target=$13.97 Stop=$10.88
POSITION: - NKTR 10E10.00 May $10c (85 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 01/29/2010
XTEX (Crosstex Energy--$9.45; +0.04; no options): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xtex.html
After Hours: $9.44
EARNINGS: 2/05/2010
STATUS: Pennant. Not all energy stocks are suffering; some of the smaller names are performing very well and XTEX is one of them. Strong surge mid-December to early January. Needed a breather, and the current three week pennant over the 18 day EMA is giving it that rest in nice style. While the market and many energy stocks sold off, XTEX is holding near support. May take a few more sessions to firm up and break higher again, but we can wait. When it makes the break and can hold the move intot he close we enter.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/XTEX.wmv
Volume: 315.589K Avg Volume: 391.368K
BUY POINT: $9.84 Volume=525K Target=$11.85 Stop=$9.02
POSITION: - OTEX 10E7.50 May $7.50c (91 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 01/29/2010
ANV (Allied Nevada Gold--$12.67; -0.23; no options): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anv.html
After Hours: $12.66
EARNINGS: 11/05/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. ANV rallied well along with all the other gold and metals stocks. Then it rolled over. Sold hard two weeks back, then spent last week edging higher, but unable to make a serious bounce. It was moving with gold as the yellow metal tries to make a second low to match its December low. ANV's pattern is something of a head and shoulders, now working on the right shoulder. If it breaks lower and can hold the move, we are in for the downside play. A move to the target lands a 46%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ANV.wmv
Volume: 378.503K Avg Volume: 466.162K
BUY POINT: $12.58 Volume=545K Target=$10.82 Stop=$13.72
POSITION: - ANV 10O15.00 Mar. $15p (-46 delta)
Play Date: 01/29/2010
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$45.09; -0.94; no options): Business management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
After Hours: $46.03
EARNINGS: 02/19/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. Nice breakout and run from October through the very beginning of 2010. It tested, bounced, but could not overtake the high. Sold hard through the 50 day EMA a week and one-half back, then rebounded o test that move. It made it to the 50 day and stalled. Thursday it reversed and Friday HMSY was selling again. Volume was up but still below average; not a really convincing move lower, but if HMSY continues to the downside then we are ready to move in for a play down to the July peak near 42. That moves lands us a 50+% gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HMSY.wmv
Volume: 205.13K Avg Volume: 249.497K
BUY POINT: $44.98 Volume=345K Target=$42.00 Stop=$47.21
POSITION: - HMSY 10O45.00 Mar. $45p -46 delta)
Play Date: 01/29/2010
JPM (JP Morgan--$38.94; -0.54; no options): Big banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jpm.html
After Hours: $39.00
EARNINGS: 01/15/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. JPM peaked in October, formed a new base, started toward the breakout the second week of January, then . . . got hit with the rest of the financial stocks. Earnings were not bad but nothing for the financials was good enough. JPM tried to hold the 50 day EMA, but it was a losing proposition. A week back JPM tanked Thursday and Friday, falling through the 200 day SMA (39.90). Bounced back up to that level this past week, but showed a doji there Thursday and then turned back down Friday. Looking for a continued fall after this bear flag, moving back down to where the last upside leg started at 35. That gives us a 40%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JPM.wmv
Volume: 53.655M Avg Volume: 40.069M
BUY POINT: $38.70 Volume=55M Target=$35.21 Stop=$40.39
POSITION: - JPM 10R40.00 June $40p (-48 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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