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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
New Pre-Announcement Play:
Play Date: 02/01/2010
GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee Roasters--$84.41; -0.41; optionable): Coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmcr.html
After Hours: $84.50
EARNINGS: 01/27/2010
STATUS: Breakout test. GMCR gapped higher last Thursday on a strong earnings report, clearing a 3 week downtrend that consolidated the December rally. Friday it sold back thanks to the market selling, then Monday GMCR tested a bit lower, holding the 10 day EMA on the low and then rebounding, showing a candlestick doji. GMCR keeps percolating higher every time it dips, and we are looking to move in on this rebound to give us the buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/GMCR.wmv
Volume: 1.231M Avg Volume: 1.638M
BUY POINT: $85.77 Volume=2M Target=$99.88 Stop=$80.91
POSITION: GJCR 10F85.00 - June $85c (54 delta) &/or Stock
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 02/01/2010
SII (Smith International--$31.58; +1.26; optionable): Oil and gas equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sii.html
After Hours: $31.42
EARNINGS: 01/27/2010
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nicely formed 3.5 month base, using the 200 day SMA on the lows as support, a good indication the bigger money is backing it, buying it up at that level. This is its second base off of the March low; it has not enjoyed the success of other stocks in terms of percentage gains, but it looks as if its time is nigh. It has moved laterally the past four weeks, holding the line as most stocks sold hard. It is straining at the breakout point and we are looking for a solid move higher that can hold the break into the last hour to give us the buy. Looking for SII to clear the pattern peak at 34 and rally on toward the October 2009 pause before it finished falling into the abyss that started this bottom.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SII.wmv
Volume: 3.927M Avg Volume: 6.026M
BUY POINT: $32.04 Volume=8.2M Target=$38.94 Stop=$29.81
POSITION: SSI 10G31.00 - July $31c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Index Play:
Play Date: 02/01/2010
GLD (Gold ETF--$108.35; +2.39; optionable)
After Hours: $108.19
STATUS: Double bottom. We were watching gold and as it came down to test the December bottom it started to slow, trying to put in a double bottom. It gapped lower Friday then gapped higher Monday and rallied well, holding almost all of its session gains. That is an island reversal, and we are ready to move in as GLD continues higher. Looking at this as a trade at this point; it will meet some resistance likely at 113.50, the 'hump' in the pattern, but it should move on through that and on toward the prior high near 119 if it means business on this move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/GLD.wmv
Volume: 14.902M Avg Volume: 21.536M
BUY POINT: $108.87 Volume=24M Target=$118.00 Stop=$104.97
POSITION: GLD 10D108.00 - Apr. $108c (53 delta)
Downside:
Play Date: 02/01/2010
CAT (Caterpillar--$52.94; +0.70; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
After Hours: $53.06
EARNINGS: 04/23/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. CAT set up a nice triangle and broke higher the second week of January only to fritter it away and then collapse to end the past two weeks. Last Thursday it gapped below key support at 54, the bottom of the prior base that started in October. It has since worked its way back up toward that level, but could only managed a modest gain and showed a doji on Monday. Watching for CAT to turn back over and start to sell off once more toward the August peaks at 48ish, the top of a consolidation before it started higher. A move to that target lands us a 45%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CAT.wmv
Volume: 7.159M Avg Volume: 8.302M
BUY POINT: $52.64 Volume=11M Target=$48.91 Stop=$55.22
POSITION: CAT 10Q55.00 - May $55p (-52 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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