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Begin Part 2 of 2
Best Plays, Part 2:
1) DTC: Trying to make its move.
2) SALM: Starting a breakout after all this time.
3) JBHT: Nice pullback.
4) NFB: Still in that orderly pullback.
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside
ATH (Anthem--$69.2; -3.3; optionable): Health care plans
Play Date: 06/08/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ath.html
STATUS: This did not perform at all as the stock tanked to the 50 day MVA on rising, above average volume. The continued backlash of the Supreme Court ruling is having its impact. we do not want to let it fall below this level. Good that it held the 50 day MVA.
Volume: 2.219M Avg Volume: 1.341M
BUY POINT: Holding for now until it shows its stripes. Original buy at $72.75. Volume=1.4M Target=$86.75 Stop=$67.66
POSITION: ATH IN - Sept. 70 call (62 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ath.html
CMPC (Compucom Systems--$3.64; -0.11; no options):
Play Date: 06/12/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmpc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Not good at all, gapping lower and well below the breakout point. It managed to recover for a slight loss on rising volume, but this is not the action you want on a nice, uneventful test. We will watch it and see if it reforms and gives us the buy.
Volume: 77.3K Avg Volume: 145.227K
BUY POINT: Watching for now (never hit buy point of $4.10). Volume=200K Target=$5.63 Stop=$3.55
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmpc.html
DTC (Domtar--$12.05; -0.01; no options):
Play Date: 06/17/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dtc.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Tried for the breakout Monday, reaching a high of 12.27 but was unable to hold it. Volume rose nicely to above average levels, but it is always a concern when a breakout attempt is pushed right back down. We will see if it will form up again and try another strong volume breakout. Again accumulation has been excellent in the base.
Volume: 88K Avg Volume: 59.954K
BUY POINT: $12.22 Volume=175K Target=$15 Stop=$11.36
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dtc.html
ECOL (American Ecology--$3.96; -0.04; no options):
Play Date: 06/20/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecol.html
STATUS: Forming up very nicely in the ascending wedge, testing the 10 day MVA the past three sessions on low volume. Monday it showed a doji with the low tapping the 10 day (3.86). Looks as if it is preparing for a breakout move.
Volume: 13.8K Avg Volume: 40.636K
BUY POINT: $4.35 Volume=65K Target=$5.96 Stop=$3.65
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ecol.html
FTEK (Fuel Tech--$6.75; +0.04; no options): Industrial electrical equipment
Play Date: 06/12/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ftek.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Holding the 18 day MVA well, rising today on higher though still below average volume. So far so good, but it is going to have to make a run at the high again soon after it turned back following Tuesday's strong move.
Volume: 49.7K Avg Volume: 65.909K
BUY POINT: $6.92 Volume=88K Target=$8.25 Stop=$6.37
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ftek.html
IO (Input/Output--$9.50; -0.20; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
Play Date: 06/22/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/io.html
STATUS: Trading play. Still in the small ascending wedge, showing a doji on the close Monday on lower, below average volume as it holds above the 10 day MVA on the close (9.43). Holding up very well and we look for the breakout to give us the play.
Volume: 86K Avg Volume: 106.59K
BUY POINT: $9.95 Volume=160K Target=$12 Stop=$9.12
POSITION: IO KU - Nov. $7.50 call (85 delta, Low OI) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/io.html
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$30.61; -0.44; optionable): Trucking
Play Date: 06/01/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout now. A very nice and orderly test of the breakout last week, JBHT is pulling back toward the 10 day MVA (29.88) on lower though still above average volume. We look for the 10 day MVA to hold for a move back up. At that point we can look at new positions.
Volume: 772.7K Avg Volume: 492.363K
BUY POINT: $30.02 after a test of 29.72. Volume=545K Target=$36 Stop=$25.40
POSITION: JHQ KX - Nov. $22.50 calls (delta 63) and/or stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jbht.html
MMSI (Merit Medical Systems--$17.7; -1.08; optionable): Merit Medical Systems
Play Date: 06/22/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The handle turned violent with a plunge today on rising, above average volume. Not what we were looking for. Will keep an eye on it, but needs to settle back down and rebuild.
Volume: 189.8K Avg Volume: 157.227K
BUY POINT: $19.5 Volume=240K Target=$23.4 Stop=$18.14
POSITION: RMQ JC - Oct. $15 call (80 delta Low OI) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mmsi.html
NFB (North Fork Bancorp--$38.75; -0.16; optionable): Regional bank
Play Date: 06/22/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nfb.html
STATUS: Test of breakout. NFB continues to pullback, testing the 50 day MVA on the low (38.11) and then rebounding to the close. Volume rose and was above average on the action. You like to see volume rise on tests of the 50 day MVA that do not breach it; that shows big money is stepping up to buy at that point. We look for the stock to continue its move up for us. Again, this presents a good 'add to' point if it can bounce on some volume.
Volume: 766.3K Avg Volume: 646.772K
BUY POINT: $39.20 Volume=750K Target=$45 Stop=$37.50
POSITION: NFB KG - Nov. $35 call (84 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nfb.html
SALM (Salem Communications--$29.8; +0.89; no options): Salem Communications
Play Date: 06/03/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/salm.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. After a 4-week handle patience was running a bit thin with SALM. Then Monday it gives a nice move on the strongest volume since the handle started (above average). It looks as if it is attempting the breakout move.
Volume: 100.6K Avg Volume: 66.454K
BUY POINT: $30.17 Volume=100K Target=$36.2 Stop=$27.50
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/salm.html
SSNC (SSS&C Technologies--$14.1; +0.86; no options):
Play Date: 06/22/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssnc.html
STATUS: Testing breakout from ascending wedge. SSNC blasted off again today after a successful test of the breakout. Volume surged back above average on the strong move.
Volume: 157.1K Avg Volume: 70.181K
BUY POINT: Riding positions taken and new ones taken today at $13.40. Volume=80K Target=$16 Stop=$11.75
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ssnc.html
Downside
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$25.12; -0.64; optionable): Health services
Play Date: 06/22/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Test of breakdown. ADVP hit the buy point today, traded lower, then rebounded with the rest of the market. It closed lower but showed a doji on the candlestick chart. May try to test a bit higher on any market rally, but the 18 day MVA (26.46) should act as a barrier. We are going to let it work for us. After any rebound we will look at more positions when it turns back down.
Volume: 2.45M Avg Volume: 2.401M
BUY POINT: $25.25 Volume=300K Target=$21 Stop=$28
POSITION: QVD UZ - Sept. $32.50 put (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/advp.html
IGT (International Game Technology--$57.40; -0.61; optionable): Electronic poker
Play Date: 06/22/2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Test of 200 day MVA breach. IGT also hit the buy point today. Volume was not huge but it is starting the move lower. It too was able to rebound in the afternoon, but it closed below the buy point and we like the move starting back down. It may test higher toward the 10 day MVA (58.53); we will look at further positions on more selling.
Volume: 613.2K Avg Volume: 1.021M
BUY POINT: Original buy at $57.70. Volume=1M Target=$53.50 Stop=$61.50
POSITION: IGT TM - Aug. $65 put (delta available Monday)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/igt.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
We have put all plays in a summary table that contains the date the stock was put on the report (so you can go back and check out the details of the play) and the other pertinent information. This provides more information than the watchlist summaries and still contains comments when appropriate. VIEW THIS IN COURIER NEW, 12 FOR BEST RESULTS. You can also easily print the table from the website (www.investmenthouse.com) from the 'current reports' section. If you just want to print the table you can cut and paste it to a word document setting the font to Courier New size 12. Just left click on the beginning of the table and drag to the table end. After selecting, right click and select 'copy.' Paste into your word processor. Select it all and choose Courier New, font size 12.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ACF 06/17 Put 26.76 +0.56 29.2 25.2 1.8M 1.9M 33
Tested 25 again but bounced.
ADVP 06/22 Put 25.12 -0.64 25.25 21 2.5M 2.4M 28
AET 06/13 Saucer 48.45 -1.93 50.35 60 2.8M 1.2M 46.83
Turned down hard on above average volume, slicing toward the 50 day MVA. Health care continues to get hit as the ripples get wider.
AMGN 06/20 Put 41.78 +1.33 40.9 37 19M 13M 44.20
Rebound today to test the 18 day MVA. Don't want it to close over that level.
APSG 06/15 Test BO 11.9 -0.05 12.25 16 163K 44K 11
ATH 06/22 Test BO 69.2 -3.3 72.75 86.75 2.2M 1.3M 67.66
ATMI 06/18 Put 21.46 +0.94 23.85 20.05 576K 466K 26
Modest rebound but on stronger, above average volume.
AXP 06/19 Put 37.1 -0.2 37.75 34.05 5.2M 4.7M 41
Tested 36 on the low and rebounded with the market.
BGG 05/11 Put 37.58 +0.71 39.4 35 166K 137K 42
BL 05/21 cup hdl 23 0 23.85 27.5 15K 17K 22
BLC 05/25 Flat 22.85 -0.15 24.25 30 366K 266K 22.55
BPOP 06/15 cup hdl 32.76 -0.46 32.35 36.5 126K 110K 30.50
Tested the 18 day MVA on the low and made a big comeback. May snug up to that level (32.30) a bit more before rising.
BYBI 05/23 BO 11.4 +0.27 9.7 12.75 31K 50K 9.02
Small gain on light volume. Would be nice if it had some trade behind it.
CAND 06/19 BO 4.26 +0.06 5.05 6.95 142K 295K 4.45
Doji at the 50 day MVA. About the best we could ask for today given Friday's dump lower.
CAND 06/06 BO 4.26 +0.06 4.98 6.95 142K 295K 4
CBRL 06/15 Test BO 31.78 -0.14 32.5 40.25 767K 864K 30.22
Still testing, tapping the 50 day MVA on the low and rebounding. Not much life right now as volume was lower.
CERN 05/20 A Wedge 51.87 +1.35 56.1 60 458K 434K 53
Nice rebound but still below the simple 50 day MVA.
CI 06/15 Put 96.7 -1.65 99.9 95.2 1.1M 758K 103.50
Tanking lower.
CMPC 06/12 Test BO 3.64 -0.11 4.1 5.63 105K 141K 3.55
CTX 05/11 Put 57.05 -0.9 53.5 49 1M 1.2M 56
Tested 56 on the low, but feel it might give us some more downside.
CVH 06/05 Test BO 29.3 -1.81 32.6 39 857K 459K 29
Collapsing below the 50 day MVA.
CYMI 06/03 Put 37.16 +1.22 39.45 33.8 1.6M 1.5M 44
A lower volume bounce up from 35.
DTC 06/17 cup hdl 12.05 -0.01 12.22 15 88K 60K 11.36
ECL 05/23 cup hdl 45.54 +0.13 47.8 57.36 384K 354K 44.45
ECOL 06/20 A Wedge 3.96 -0.04 4.35 5.96 14K 41K 3.65
ERTS 05/30 Cup 61.64 -0.36 66.12 79.5 5.4M 3M 61.49
To the 50 day MVA on rising volume. Pattern went to heck.
FRX 06/10 Put 70.03 +0.53 72.45 68 1.5M 1.2M 75
FSS 05/22 DB hdl 25.14 +0.04 25.8 31 204K 198K 23.99
Not bad action in the handle.
FTEK 06/12 Test BO 6.75 +0.04 6.92 8.25 50K 66K 6.37
FTEK 06/01 A Wedge 6.75 +0.04 6.65 8 50K 66K 5.95
GISX 06/24 A Wedge 20.09 +1.04 20.85 25.48 173K 161K 18.25
HGR 05/20 Test 50 14.94 +0.14 12.6 19 131K 130K 11.72
HI 05/20 Put 50 +0.32 53.45 48.5 2.5M 3M 56
Held its ground Monday but no volume to back it.
HLT 05/06 Put 13.6 -0.19 14.3 12 1.5M 1.9M 15.80
HSIC 05/15 BO 47.05 -1.05 49.4 56.9 735K 288K 46.50
HSY 06/12 Put 64.76 -0.19 65.35 61 402K 455K 67.25
Still lower but rebounded off the lows as did most stocks.
IBC 06/08 BO 28.48 -0.32 28.6 34.96 340K 258K 26.6
Took a day off with a doji over the 10 day MVA.
IGT 06/22 Put 57.4 -0.61 57.7 53.5 613K 1M 61.50
IMDC 05/20 Put 27.39 -0.15 29.9 26 167K 214K 32
INTU 05/30 cup hdl 43.25 -0.95 45 54 5.4M 2.8M 41.85
Not much better. A doji over the 50 day MVA. May try a bounce but got reamed last week.
IO 06/22 A Wedge 9.5 -0.2 9.95 12 86K 107K 9.12
ITN 05/13 DB hdl 11 -1 13 16.5 742K 100K 11.75
Closed it out.
JBHT 06/01 A Wedge 30.61 -0.44 28.72 36 773K 492K 25.40
KROL 06/06 BO 22.05 +0.5 20.2 24 458K 379K 19.50
Bouncing up off the 50 day MVA on rising volume.
LGND 06/15 Put 13.59 -0.38 13.95 10.05 561K 601K 15.35
Tested 13 with a doji and bounced. Not convinced it is going higher.
MMSI 06/22 cup hdl 17.7 -1.08 19.5 23.4 190K 157K 18.14
MNTR 06/15 Put 37.82 +0.21 35.95 32.2 69K 117K 38
Slight gain to test the 50 day MVA on lower volume. It may just break back down.
MTB 06/11 Put 84.34 -1.38 82.95 77.75 341K 247K 85.60
Before we could do anything it started falling again on stronger volume. No complaints.
NCR 06/24 Put 35.36 +1.15 35.25 31.15 600K 480K 38
NFB 06/22 Test 18 38.75 -0.16 39.2 45 766K 647K 37.50
NFB 04/13 BO 38.75 -0.16 36.55 43.5 766K 647K 37.50
NX 06/01 Test 50 42.4 -1.75 36.5 43.8 370K 129K 33.94
Hit the target.
OVTI 06/24 BO 14.26 +1.02 14.55 19.48 592K 326K 12.85
PBG 05/30 Test 18 32.6 -0.5 32.75 36 1.4M 1.2M 30.46
Showing some cracks. May not give us the bounce, but too early to tell.
PCLE 06/08 BO 10.88 +0.54 11.5 19.94 776K 713K 10.25
Wild day as it tested lower but rallied to recover over the 50 day MVA.
PCLE 05/06 cup hdl 10.88 +0.54 10.27 13 776K 713K 9.40
PETC 06/19 BO 24.26 +0.06 26.25 31 204K 237K 24
Tight doji on the 50 day MVA.
PETC 06/01 Test BO 24.26 +0.06 25.85 31 204K 237K 24.04
PNR 06/08 Put 47.15 -1.04 44.7 39.75 348K 278K 47
Gave the test to 46. It still may test lower to that level again or beyond, giving a better exit point.
QCOM 06/05 Put 26.8 +0.68 31.5 25 21M 15M 33.50
RE 06/11 Put 59.09 -0.96 58.55 54 279K 575K 63
Heading back down again.
REY 06/19 cup hdl 28.58 -0.44 31.15 37.38 313K 291K 28.97
Stinker. Never gave the buy point and died.
SALM 06/03 cup hdl 29.8 +0.89 30.17 36.2 101K 66K 27.50
SSNC 06/22 Test BO 14.1 +0.86 13.4 16 157K 70K 11.75
SSNC 06/15 A Wedge 14.1 +0.86 12.65 16 157K 70K 11.50
TEVA 06/04 cup hdl 63.1 -0.32 68.05 80 536K 885K 63.29
Hanging on with another doji.
TEVA 05/15 BO 63.1 -0.32 62.1 67 536K 885K 60.50
XL 06/24 Put 88.01 -0.34 87.38 82.65 761K 870K 90.50
XRAY 05/25 A Wedge 37 -1.25 40.35 48.25 459K 348K 37.53
Total collapse ongoing.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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