|
|
us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
On Monday and Wednesday we provide the best plays for the next session and the summary table. Full comments will be on Tuesday and Thursday reports.
BONUS PLAYS:
Downside:
NCR (NCR Corp.--$35.36; +1.15; optionable): Software; information technology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
STATUS: Put. NCR is trending down since the market topped in March. After selling down to 34, NCR rebounded up to test the 50 day MVA early last week. It has sold off on some very strong volume. Monday it bounced higher on lower volume, testing the 10 day MVA on the high (36). We are looking for another move higher to test the 18 day MVA (36.33) before it rolls over on this next round of selling. We will look at taking positions after a failed test of the 18 day.
Volume: 600.2K Avg Volume: 480.272K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $35.75. Next: $35.25 Volume=625K Target=$31.15 Stop=$38
POSITION: NCR VH - Oct. $40 put (-63 delta) or NCR VI - Oct. $45 put (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncr.html
Upside:
GISX (Global Imaging Systems--$20.09; +1.04; optionable): Retail: GPS systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gisx.html
STATUS: Ascending wedge. After breaking out of a cup with handle in January, GISX is now in a 6-month ascending wedge. This is a combination pattern that we like, and GISX, though not at a new high, is not far from one (26.25). Monday say the stock on a solid move on stronger, above average volume. A solid performer in this market, and we are looking for a strong breakout. Accumulation weeks lead distribution weeks 7 to 3 in the base. Relative strength is already breaking out on this move, a bullish sign.
Volume: 172.8K Avg Volume: 160.909K
BUY POINT: $20.85 Volume=185K Target=$25.48 Stop=$18.25
POSITION: Stock and/or GHQ KW - Nov. $17.50 call (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gisx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS
EDMC (Education Management--$42.94; +1.45; optionable): Researching a date for this split candidate, but the pattern has formed up well.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edmc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 12-2-98 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $47. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Made the strong move!!
Volume: 737.9K Avg Volume: 234.454K
BUY POINT: $42.05 Volume=334K Target=$53 Stop=$39.50
POSITION: Stock and/or UKN LG - Dec. $35 call (Low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/edmc.html
TFX (Teleflex--$57.8; +0.35; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-17-02 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed a time for the release at this time.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tfx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in mid May of 1997 at a price of $52. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Ascending wedge. Still looks ready in the wedge following the breakout of a cup with handle base in February. Monday it followed Friday's big volume spike with another good volume day, but turned back from the breakout. May take another session or two to get it together, but looks to be doing so. After breakouts we like these types of patterns as they allow the stock to consolidate while holding its gains. Accumulation weeks are ahead of distribution weeks 5 to 2 in the recent base.
Volume: 252.2K Avg Volume: 129.363K
BUY POINT: $58.35 Volume=188K Target=$70.1 Stop=$55.15
POSITION: TFX JJ - Oct. $50 call (87 delta) or TFX JK - Oct. $55 call (68 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tfx.html
PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
JILL (J. Jill Group--$36.96; +0.94; optionable): Splits 3:2 on 7-1-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jill.html
STATUS: Started a move with just a test of the 10 day MVA (35.50) as opposed to the 18 day MVA. Not a lot of volume, but again, we don't get too upset about that on these plays.
Volume: 205.4K Avg Volume: 267.318K
BUY POINT: Aggressive can still get in at this point, but there is some time for a pullback before the split. Volume=300K Target=$39.96 Stop=$33.25
POSITION: JUI IF - Sept. $30 call (83 delta) and/or stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jill.html
TRBS (Texas Regional Bancshares--$50.17; +0.43; no options): Splits 3:2 on 7-01-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trbs.html
STATUS: Not much of a move, but volume jumped to above average levels Monday on the small move up. Could be a signal to get ready for a breakout of the short and abrupt v-shaped cup with handle. Good 3 to 1 accumulation during the base. Relative strength is breaking out now ahead of the price move, a bullish sign. Again, there are no options but the pattern shows good accumulation and can thus give us a nice breakout and move up after the split as well.
Volume: 76.1K Avg Volume: 60.863K
BUY POINT: $51.25 Volume=11K Target=$61.51 Stop=$47.50
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trbs.html
THC (Tenet Healthcare--$71.4; -3.35; optionable): Getting killed on this Supreme Court news, breaking through the 50 day MVA (72.75) Monday on strong volume. We will see if it comes back to test that level to either exit, or if it recovers to let it run some more.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES
AZO (Autozone--$81.35; +0.39; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
STATUS: Still testing the breakout, holding firm at support at 80. It again tried to move over 82 on the high, but could not pull it off. That makes four straight sessions it has tried. Still looks solid as it consolidates the breakout. We can take positions on a move over 82.50 or let it make a further break over 83.50. Either way we need to see volume move up on the move.
Volume: 932.5K Avg Volume: 1.002M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 82.50. Then $83.50. Volume=1.5M Target=$99.5 Stop=$77.66
POSITION: AZO IO - Sept. 75 call (71 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/azo.html
BONUS:
ODSY (Odyssey Healthcare--$34.5; -0.26; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odsy.html
STATUS: Keep an eye on ODSY. It is not selling off as is it works through the ascending wedge, riding up the 50 day MVA. Monday it showed some above average volume on a move up off of the 50 day MVA (33.50). It may be getting ready for a breakout here. Aggressive positions at 35.30.
Volume: 137.2K Avg Volume: 177.818K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 35.50. Breakout: $36.10 Volume=250K Target=$42 Stop=$33.57
POSITION: Stock and/or UPE JF - Oct. $30 call
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/odsy.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
We have put all plays in a summary table that contains the date the stock was put on the report (so you can go back and check out the details of the play) and the other pertinent information. This provides more information than the watchlist summaries and still contains comments when appropriate. VIEW THIS IN COURIER NEW, 12 FOR BEST RESULTS. You can also easily print the table from the website (www.investmenthouse.com) from the 'current reports' section. If you just want to print the table you can cut and paste it to a word document setting the font to Courier New size 12. Just left click on the beginning of the table and drag to the table end. After selecting, right click and select 'copy.' Paste into your word processor. Select it all and choose Courier New, font size 12.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ACF 06/17 Put 26.76 +0.56 29.2 25.2 1.8M 1.9M 33
ACXM 05/30 A Wedge 16.98 -0.1 17.7 21 875K 653K 16.05
ADVP 06/22 Put 25.12 -0.64 25.25 21 2.5M 2.4M 28
AET 06/13 Saucer 48.45 -1.93 50.35 60 2.8M 1.2M 46.83
AMGN 06/20 Put 41.78 +1.33 40.9 37 19M 13M 44.20
ATK 06/06 Put 67.4 -1.93 104.4 60 457K 352K 71
AXP 06/19 Put 37.1 -0.2 37.75 34.05 5.2M 4.7M 41
AZO 06/18 Test BO 81.35 +0.39 83.5 99.5 932K 1M 77.66
BAC 06/11 Put 70.36 +0.1 69.9 65 7.2M 5.7M 73
BBBY 05/11 Flat 36.49 +0.23 36.28 42 3.7M 3.2M 33
BJ 05/25 Put 40.05 -1.25 42.7 40 932K 582K 45
BLI 06/11 Test BO 18.13 -0.79 18.5 22 892K 619K 17.30
BPOP 06/15 cup hdl 32.76 -0.46 32.35 36.5 126K 110K 30.50
CBSH 06/20 BO 44.39 -0.55 46.67 56 257K 120K 43.85
CCRN 05/08 Test BO 34.45 -1.6 32.7 39.75 540K 507K 31.70
CHRZ 04/16 A Wedge 4.05 -0.08 4.2 5.9 168K 74K 4.10
CHS 05/11 Test 50 38.29 +0.02 37.35 43.98 744K 663K 35.95
CMPC 06/12 Test BO 3.64 -0.11 4.1 5.63 105K 141K 3.55
COCO 06/20 cup hdl 31.73 +0.81 29.59 35.55 1.9M 352K 27.25
COCO 06/01 Test 50 31.73 +0.81 28.1 34 1.9M 352K 26.20
COH 06/22 PreSplt 53.13 -1.87 55.51 60 817K 481K 51.62
CTX 05/11 Put 57.05 -0.9 53.5 49 1M 1.2M 56
CUB 06/19 Put 23.25 -1.54 23.99 20.5 172K 133K 26.75
CYMI 06/03 Put 37.16 +1.22 39.45 33.8 1.6M 1.5M 44
DF 06/22 A Wedge 37.55 -0.8 38.76 45 596K 522K 36.25
DNR 05/21 cup hdl 10 +0.1 9.56 12 534K 88K 8.89
EDMC 06/22 cup hdl 42.94 +1.45 42.05 53 738K 234K 39.50
EME 05/21 Put 56.59 -0.31 57.15 50 86K 90K 60
ERES 06/18 PreSplt 23.11 +0.06 23.06 26 228K 100K 21.20
EXPE 06/04 Put 64.8 -2.83 69.6 63.04 3.2M 1.9M 74
FISV 06/18 Put 36.25 +0.16 38.45 34.5 3.4M 1.8M 41.25
FITB 05/25 Put 64.49 -0.38 66.1 62.62 2.2M 1.8M 68
FNF 05/22 Test 18 30.67 -0.33 30.6 35 607K 541K 28.46
FOE 06/01 A Wedge 30.16 +0.25 30.34 35 224K 192K 28.50
FOSL 06/22 BO 22.49 -0.3 23.42 28 190K 138K 21.65
FOSL 06/04 PreSplt 22.49 -0.3 32.1 24 190K 138K 19.90
FTEK 06/12 Test BO 6.75 +0.04 6.92 8.25 50K 66K 6.37
FTEK 06/01 A Wedge 6.75 +0.04 6.65 8 50K 66K 5.95
GB 05/28 Put 23.98 -0.93 24.9 21.3 184K 86K 27
GGUY 06/15 Test BO 3.75 -0.02 3.95 6 28K 140K 3.67
GISX 06/24 A Wedge 20.09 +1.04 20.85 25.48 173K 161K 18.25
GLYN 05/18 BO 22.12 +0.32 20.66 24 76K 175K 19.12
GRMN 05/14 cup hdl 23.16 +0.08 23.4 28 83K 121K 22.05
HCA 06/10 Test BO 49 -1.4 49.6 59 3.7M 2.2M 47.50
HET 06/08 Put 46.54 +0.27 45.5 40 1.3M 1.1M 47.25
HP 06/01 Put 36.16 +0.66 37.45 33 287K 316K 39.80
HSIC 06/20 BO 47.05 -1.05 50.21 60 735K 288K 47.50
HSIC 05/15 BO 47.05 -1.05 49.4 56.9 735K 288K 46.50
HUG 06/18 BO 42.27 +0.27 43.09 52 111K 170K 39.50
JAH 06/19 BO 19.28 -0.12 19.05 23.5 141K 63K 17.25
JAH 05/21 PreSplt 19.28 -0.12 37.6 21.5 141K 63K 17.50
JILL 06/22 PreSplt 36.96 +0.94 34.8 39.96 203K 262K 33.25
KSWS 06/18 PreSplt 24.8 +0.15 48.25 52.5 88K 83K 44.50
MAR 06/12 Put 39.29 -0.46 38.25 34 1000 864K 41
MHP 06/18 Put 58.73 +0.73 59.55 56 1M 556K 61.25
MMSI 06/22 cup hdl 17.7 -1.08 19.5 23.4 190K 157K 18.14
MNTR 06/15 Put 37.82 +0.21 35.95 32.2 69K 117K 38
MUR 06/04 Put 85.95 -1.04 89.5 84 378K 274K 93.50
NCR 06/24 Put 35.36 +1.15 35.25 31.15 600K 480K 38
NEU 06/06 Put 36.7 -0.1 40.9 36 279K 181K 43
NMHC 06/18 cup hdl 9.79 -0.31 13 15.6 16K 30K 11.90
NYT 06/19 Test BO 50.72 -0.83 51.1 61 1M 504K 47.80
ODSY 06/05 A Wedge 34.5 -0.26 36.1 42 137K 178K 33.57
OVTI 06/24 BO 14.26 +1.02 14.55 19.48 592K 326K 12.85
PDCO 05/23 Test 50 49.73 -0.86 49 57 351K 315K 45.75
PFCB 06/06 Put 32.47 -0.98 32.9 28 511K 542K 35.50
PHM 05/25 Flat 58.93 +0.3 55.95 67.45 1.1M 698K 52.03
PNRA 06/17 PreSplt 70.45 -1.01 70.15 76.75 480K 438K 65.24
PNRA 05/18 Test 50 70.45 -1.01 71 80 480K 438K 66.03
PRU 04/22 cup hdl 32.5 -0.65 33.3 38 4M 2.2M 32.50
PRV 06/20 Test 18 23.54 -1.16 26.35 30 386K 547K 24
PRV 06/06 BO 23.54 -1.16 25.1 30 386K 547K 23.70
QCOM 06/05 Put 26.8 +0.68 31.5 25 21M 15M 33.50
RF 04/16 A Wedge 34.85 -0.15 34.96 40.5 541K 494K 34
SRCL 06/22 Test BO 37.49 -1.08 39.25 45 801K 297K 36.55
TECD 06/11 Put 37.65 +0.73 39.35 35 852K 841K 41.50
TFX 06/22 A Wedge 57.8 +0.35 58.35 70.1 252K 129K 55.15
THC 06/22 PreSplt 71.4 -3.35 75.55 80.51 3M 1.7M 73.50
THC 06/17 PreSplt 71.4 -3.35 75.55 80.5 3M 1.7M 73.50
THC 05/14 Test 50 71.4 -3.35 72.5 86 3M 1.7M 67.42
THQI 05/23 Put 29.22 +1.17 31.9 25.1 1.6M 1.1M 34
TKR 05/25 Put 23.52 -0.48 23.4 19 310K 292K 25.60
TRBS 06/20 cup hdl 50.17 +0.43 51.25 61.51 76K 61K 47.50
WB 05/08 Test 50 37.35 -0.62 38.97 45 3.6M 2.6M 36.45
WEN 06/01 BO 39.8 -0.68 38.6 44 1.2M 869K 36.90
WHI 06/08 Test BO 23.4 +0.25 19.59 23.5 230K 69K 19.25
WM 05/08 Test 18 37.72 -0.36 38.8 44 5M 3.6M 37
WTSLA 06/17 cup hdl 22.95 -0.18 25.34 30.75 373K 320K 22.85
YUM 06/01 Test 50 31.9 -0.56 64.21 68 1.9M 793K 60
ZQK 06/12 Test BO 25.3 +0.05 27.1 32 197K 252K 25.20
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock split
|
