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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
New Pre-Announcement Play:
Play Date: 02/04/2010
CNMD (Conmed--$22.27; -0.39; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnmd.html
After Hours: $22.27
EARNINGS: 02/04/2010
STATUS: Triangle. Looking at CNMD again as it has announced earnings and held its pattern. Specifically, it has formed a larger triangle the past 4 months, merging two triangles into one. Sold back on earnings but nowhere near the level of the market; just a normal pullback to the 50 day EMA as the rest of the market broke lower. Nice higher low and we are just being patient and letting CNMD show us it is ready for the move higher.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CNMD.wmv
Volume: 336.859K Avg Volume: 142.629K
BUY POINT: $22.89 Volume=265K Target=$26.45 Stop=$21.56
POSITION: CNMD 10E20.00 - May $20c (69 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 02/04/2010
HOLX (Hologic--$16.20; -0.25; optionable): Medical appliances, equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
After Hours: $16.45
EARNINGS: 02/01/2010
STATUS: Gap test. HOLX set up a cup base but faded right before earnings to start February. It held the 50 day EMA, however, and earnings were solid, gapping it higher on strong volume. The gap moved it through key resistance at 16. The past two sessions it is testing, coming back modestly and still holding the gap move. May come back to 16ish before it starts higher, but if it holds in this general range of the close and starts higher it has held the gap up point, a bullish near term indication. That hold is one we want to buy when HOLX bounces higher off that test.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HOLX.wmv
Volume: 4.564M Avg Volume: 3.672M
BUY POINT: $16.41 Volume=5M Target=$19.91 Stop=$15.68
POSITION: HOLX 10F15.00 - June $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
Leader Play:
Play Date: 02/04/2010
SHLD (Sears Holding Corp.--$89.88; -3.05; optionable): Retail department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shld.html
After Hours: $89.88
EARNINGS: 11/19/2009
STATUS: Gap fill. SHLD made us a nice chunk on its last rally; we were in the stock when it made that gap higher in early January. SHLD has come back to fill the gap over the past three weeks, Thursday closing right at the intraday highs before it made the gap. It can come back a bit more toward the 50 day EMA (87.92) before it rebounds, but this is where you start watching, looking for the point where SHLD holds and reverses, holding the upside move into the close. That is when we step in, looking for a rally back up off the gap fill.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SHLD.wmv
Volume: 1.871M Avg Volume: 1.859M
BUY POINT: $90.56 Volume=2.4M Target=$104.89 Stop=$87.64
POSITION: SHLD 10F90.00 - June $90c (55 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 02/04/2010
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$24.53; -1.35; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
After Hours: $24.53
EARNINGS: 11/24/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. As BCSI made a new price high in mid-January MACD failed to make the same move, showing a divergent top. It tumbled through the end of the month, then bounced Monday to Wednesday, bumping up against resistance at 26. Thursday BCSI rolled over with the market. Significant selloff, but it still has plenty of room to the downside before it finds support. May bounce some Friday, and if so we let it come back some but look for positions ahead of the close. If it continues to the downside first we can start a few positions and then see how it reacts, i.e. if it tests back up to set up another round of downside. A move to the target lands a 65%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BCSI.wmv
Volume: 593.447K Avg Volume: 593.329K
BUY POINT: $24.38 Volume=700K Target=$22.18 Stop=$26.44
POSITION: BCSI 10P25.00 - Apr. $25p (-83 delta)
Play Date: 02/04/2010
MON (Monsanto--$75.48; -2.06; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
After Hours: $75.00
EARNINGS: 04/07/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. MON received an upgrade and other positives Wednesday, and it surged higher only to roll over and close below resistance at 78. Nice tombstone doji on top of a low volume relief bounce from the prior selling. Great set up and on Thursday MON gapped lower. It was not a huge lower, however, and it still has plenty of downside room before support, and we are looking to play that move. If it bounces some we can wait and then move in as it rolls over again. If it continues lower we can start some positions, then see if there is a late market bounce and add some more at that point. A move to the target lands a 53%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MON.wmv
Volume: 4.521M Avg Volume: 5.265M
BUY POINT: $75.18 Volume=6M Target=$70.15 Stop=$77.82
POSITION: MON 10P75.00 - Apr. $75p (-46 delta)
Play Date: 02/04/2010
SNDK (Sandisk--$25.65; -1.27; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sndk.html
After Hours: $25.73
EARNINGS: 01/28/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. SNDK is setting up for another downside play for us as it tested the late January gap lower on earnings, forming a bear flag through Wednesday. It sold with the market Thursday, but even that downside session did not take it out of position for making us some money on a further selloff. SNDK gapped higher in December, and this gap lower has formed something of an island reversal. The bounce through Wednesday formed the bear flag to test that selloff and reversal. There is room easily down to our initial target as it continues lower from the Wednesday close. It may bounce some early and then stall; if so we adjust our buy point and buy on the move lower. If it bounces late we can pick up positions before the close thanks to the short covering. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SNDK.wmv
Volume: 9.526M Avg Volume: 9.15M
BUY POINT: $25.46 Volume=12M Target=$23.22 Stop=$27.48
POSITION: SNDK 10P26.00 - Apr. $26c (-52 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
top stock pick
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