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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
New Pre-Announcement Play:
Play Date: 02/05/2010
NFLX (Netflix--$60.84; +0.50; optionable): DVD rentals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
After Hours: $61.16
EARNINGS: 01/27/2010
STATUS: Gap test. NFLX keeps generating better and better earnings, and they gapped NFLX massively higher to end January. That gap took NFLX above the stock's peak in November breakaway gap on massive volume. The past week it is testing the move, but still holding the gap. Nice tail Friday as NFLX rallied back and closed positive. If NFLX continues higher we start moving into some positions.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NFLX.wmv
Volume: 1.586M Avg Volume: 1.595M
BUY POINT: $61.12 Volume=2.2M Target=$69.97 Stop=$58.76
POSITION: NFLX 10F60.00 - June $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/05/2010
ANN (Ann Taylor--$14.65; +0.03; optionable): Women's apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ann.html
After Hours: $14.54
EARNINGS: 11/20/2009
STATUS: Flag. ANN gapped higher to start February as it raised its Q4 guidance. The move did not take ANN out of its 5 month range, but the test is setting up a higher low and that often leads to a breakout move. So, as ANN bounces off of that Friday doji we are looking to move in and see if ANN can deliver the breakout move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ANN.wmv
Volume: 3.701M Avg Volume: 2.264M
BUY POINT: $14.88 Volume=3.2M Target=$17.45 Stop=$13.84
POSITION: ANN 10F12.50 - June $12.50c (91 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/05/2010
RIMM (Research in Motion--$67.75; +1.58; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
After Hours: $67.75
EARNINGS: 03/31/2010
STATUS: RIMM is setting up a higher low after rallying while the rest of the market sold. Friday it sold as well, but held above the 50 day EMA and bounced nicely into the close for a gain. It is right at the week's high, and RIMM is showing excellent relative strength, not to mention the fact that it is posting gains. If it can continue the move higher we are ready to move in with some more positions.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/RIMM.wmv
Volume: 15.475M Avg Volume: 16.405M
BUY POINT: $68.11 Volume=22M Target=$79.94 Stop=$64.76
POSITION: RIMM 10F65.00 - June $65c (63 delta) &/or Stock
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/05/2010
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$70.23; +3.49; optionable): Copper mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
After Hours: $70.77
EARNINGS: 01/21/2010
STATUS: Double bottom. Looking for an upside bounce from FCX after that rather ugly January selloff to the 200 day SMA. Bounced into early February, then dumped back down Thursday. It again found the 200 day SMA and again it held. Thursday FCX posted huge trade as it surged off that level without selling off early as did other stocks. Looking to move in as FCX rebounds and play the bounce. There is some resistance at 76, but we expect the momentum to carry it through that level.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/FCX.wmv
Volume: 37.465M Avg Volume: 14.609M
BUY POINT: $70.66 Volume=20M Target=$84.92 Stop=$65.93
POSITION: FCX 10E70.00 - May $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/05/2010
GOOG (Google--$531.29; +4.51; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
After Hours: $529.32
EARNINGS: 01/21/2010
STATUS: Double bottom. Big rally from July through early 2010, then the steepest decline since the March low. After 5 weeks down it has found support at 525 and has bounced laterally along that level the past two weeks. GOOG has not enjoyed any bounce during this selloff and thus it is due. That it did not sell off further during the late week market dive shows it is sold out for now and thus we are looking to move in as GOOG makes the break higher off of this support level, and we ride it as far as it will go. There is a gap lower at 575, and the initial target is for a fill of that gap.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/GOOG.wmv
Volume: 3.157M Avg Volume: 2.867M
BUY POINT: $533.72 Volume=4M Target=$574.45 Stop=$521.91
POSITION: GOOG 10F530.00 - June $530c (54 delta)
Play Date: 02/05/2010
HUM (Humana--$47.02; -0.15; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hum.html
After Hours: $45.71
EARNINGS: 04/26/2010
STATUS: ABCD. HUM made us some great money on its last run, and over the past four weeks it has carved out an ABCD pattern, consolidating the rally. Friday HUM looks to have made its D point, tapping the 50 day EMA on the low and rebounding nicely. If HUM continues the move then we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HUM.wmv
Volume: 3.15M Avg Volume: 2.791M
BUY POINT: $47.32 Volume=3.5M Target=$54.55 Stop=$45.44
POSITION: HUM 10E45.00 - May $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/05/2010
NETL (Netlogic Microsystems--$48.93; +1.55; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/netl.html
After Hours: $47.38
EARNINGS: 02/02/2010
STATUS: Gap test. NETL gapped on earnings, gapping through the December peak, the high in the rally to that point. Volume was huge and you love to see a gap through resistance on strong volume. Those gaps tend to extend in the direction of the gap. Thursday NETL sold but it also showed relative strength as its pattern was nowhere near failing. Indeed Friday it rallied upside, posting a 3+% gain. Showing a lot of buying interest even in this market, and thus we are looking to move into NETL as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.068M Avg Volume: 480.236K
BUY POINT: $49.14 Volume=750K Target=$56.55 Stop=$46.33
POSITION: NETL 10G45.00 - July $45c (78 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 02/06/2010
NVDA (Nvidia--$16.22; +0.32; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
After Hours: $16.26
EARNINGS: 11/05/2009
STATUS: Bear flag. NVDA put together a couple of gaps to the upside in December as it rallied out of its three month base, but it peaked in January and has sold back. Very volatile the past two weeks, selling off the end January then recovering last week. Friday NVDA bounced back from the Thursday selling, closing just below the 50 day EMA on lower, below average volume. We anticipate NVDA will fail at resistance given the low volume bounce, and when it rolls over we are ready to move in. A move down to our target lands a 60%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NVDA.wmv
Volume: 15.121M Avg Volume: 17.258M
BUY POINT: $72.28 Volume=15M Target=$67.11 Stop=$75.21
POSITION: LZ 10O75.00 - Mar. $75p (-60 delta)
Play Date: 02/06/2010
LZ (Lubrizol--$72.44; -1.13; optionable): Specialty chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lz.html
After Hours: $72.44
EARNINGS: 04/29/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. LZ was cruising through mid-January, then peaked ahead of earnings. Earnings didn't help; LZ plunged on the results. It managed to hold support formed in the 4 month base at 70, bouncing through Thursday. It tried to break through the 50 day EMA that session but failed. Friday it was selling with the rest of the market, but it bounced and recovered nicely to the close. Like the recovery as that keeps LZ in play for a downside run we can profit from. Simply waiting for LZ to start falling again and we move in. A selloff to the target lands a 55%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/LZ.wmv
Volume: 1.457M Avg Volume: 870.148K
BUY POINT: $72.31 Volume=1.3M Target=$67.12 Stop=$75.11
POSITION: LZ 10O75.00 - March $75p (-60 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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