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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: LBTX; WYE, KKD
Tuesday plays:
PTSI: Holding the pattern.
KKD: Dropped like a stone.
WYE: Fought it for awhile, but dropped like another stone.
Best Plays:
1) CEPH: Tanking big time.
2) SRCL: Very nice pullback to test the breakout.
3) Continuing stocks shaping up: RITA; ELK; EXAS
New Plays
Downside
CEPH (Cephalon--$43.40; -4.14; optionable): Drugs
http://biz/yahoo.com/p/c/ceph.html
STATUS: Put. Has been trending lower since March, and after testing the 18 day MVA Monday and Tuesday, CEPH tanked today on rising, above average volume. The move pushed it to its September 2001 lows and it really looks to be heading lower with a lot of speed. We are looking to get onto this one and let it run down to the target for us. It has the momentum to really move well.
Volume: 4.132M Avg Volume: 2.042M
BUY POINT: $43.20 Volume=300K Target=$38 Stop=$49.50
POSITION: CQE TJ - Aug. $50 put (-86 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ceph.html
Upside
MBAY (Mediabay--$5.01; +0.36; no options): Catalog retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbay.html
STATUS: Hard to put a label this one, but it is a short double bottom that made a breakout move Tuesday on some very strong volume. Accumulation in this short base has been solid at 3 up weeks to 1 down week. Relative strength is breaking out and money flow is well out ahead of the move higher. May not be one we want to hold forever, but it can give us a nice return nearer term.
Volume: 445.6K Avg Volume: 159.318K
BUY POINT: $5.25 Volume=250K Target=$8 Stop=$4.45
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mbay.html
Revisited stocks:
SIE (Sierra Health Services--$20.76; -0.28; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sie.html
STATUS: This market selling has given some nice pullbacks to some strong volume breakouts. SIE is no exception as it has spent the past three sessions pulling back to test the 10 day MVA on lighter volume. It is still above the breakout point. Even though it is in the health care plan area, this stock has mostly gone under the radar of those wanting to sell off the bigger stocks in the field. We also believe the court ruling case has been overblown. We are looking to pick up SIE on a rebound from here.
Volume: 291K Avg Volume: 237.818K
BUY POINT: $21.10 Volume=300K Target=$25.45 Stop=$19.62
POSITION: SIE IC - Sept. $15 call (83 delta) SIE LC - Dec. $15 call (80 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sie.html
SRCL (Stericycle--$37.37; -0.12; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
STATUS: SRCL has continued the pullback to test the screaming breakout, and after a bit of a volatile session Monday on above average volume. Tuesday it tested the 18 day MVA on below average volume and showed a doji. It is holding above the breakout on this test, another good sign. We look for this leader to bounce up from here. A good point for new or additional positions.
Volume: 392.7K Avg Volume: 306.5K
BUY POINT: $38.25 Volume=450K Target=$45 Stop=$36.55
POSITION: URL KG - Nov. $35 call (71 delta) and/or stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/srcl.html
PORTFOLIOS: Due to subscriber requests, we are merging the portfolios into one Member Portfolio controlled by the subscribers with periodic surveys on the stocks desired. We had a big response over the weekend and will be putting the new Member Portfolio together soon. If you have not done so, get your choices in now.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
We have some great new choices. Get your votes in.
Continuing plays:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABCW 06/20 A Wedge 22.92 -0.08 23.35 27.55 30K 50K 21.65
Holding up well showing a doji Monday on low volume.
ACN 05/11 Put 18.75 -0.4 19.7 15.65 2.8M 3.2M 21.30
Returning to its falling ways.
AVY 06/22 Put 64.95 -0.05 63.49 59 466K 402K 66
AXP 05/08 cup hdl 36.32 -0.78 43.53 52 5.1M 4.7M 40.48
BLI 06/11 Test BO 18.53 +0.4 18.5 22 1.4M 624K 17.30
Holding the 18 day MVA, but a big volume spike today. In this market we have to be careful.
BLL 06/06 Put 42.02 -1.63 41.54 38 455K 476K 44
Starting to fall again, but volume was still below average.
BOBE 05/22 A Wedge 29.9 -1.27 31.9 38 337K 244K 30.25
Ugly fall on rising, above average volume. Needs to hold 30 or we have to exit.
BWA 06/08 Put 57.12 -1.04 59.99 55 333K 349K 63
Getting closer to the target. Still falling.
BZH 06/18 Put 78.16 +0.31 75.95 72 1.1M 518K 81
A big doji at the 18 and 50 day MVA on some huge volume. Again not a good response to housing numbers.
BZH 06/03 Put 78.16 +0.31 74.45 70.45 1.1M 518K 77
CBSH 06/18 BO 43.8 -0.59 46.67 56 165K 122K 43.85
Has broken the 50 day MVA on stronger volume. Never gave us the move.
CEPH 06/25 Put 43.4 -4.14 43.2 38 4.1M 2M 49.50
CHGO 05/28 Test 18 9.05 +0.12 7.75 10 263K 289K 7.21
Managed a gain on stronger volume in a bad market. Not bad.
CHGO 05/09 Test 50 9.05 +0.12 7.3 10 263K 289K 7.02
CLF 05/15 Test BO 27.6 +0.25 28.2 34 48K 81K 26.90
Hanging on very well, but right at the 50 day MVA.
COH 06/03 Put 51.12 -2.01 49.65 45 737K 487K 52
Falling again on strong volume. May give those still in it a gain in the end.
CTSH 06/06 Put 48.41 -1.01 44.65 40.25 152K 168K 47.25
Tested the 50 day MVA on the low and bounced a bit. Might be the last exit point.
DESI 05/29 Test 18 6.91 -0.09 7.25 11 48K 135K 6.74
Another tight doji on the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
DGX 01/31 cup hdl 83.41 -2.3 68.9 100 1.4M 956K 84
DLTR 05/09 Flat 38.58 -0.31 38.95 33 1.1M 1.2M 36.22
DROOY 05/21 A Wedge 4.72 +0.16 4.85 7 6.1M 4.4M 4.30
ELK 06/01 DB hdl 27.66 -0.23 27.46 34.96 119K 100K 24.95
Holding well in the pattern, showing an above average volume day holding the 10 day moving average.
ENC 05/06 Rv H&S 8.83 -0.17 7.3 9.5 33K 36K 6.79
Might be rolling over after the strong move.
EXAS 06/15 cup hdl 14.39 0 15.3 18.5 86K 98K 12
Very nice pullback on below average volume while holding the 18 day moving average.
FDP 05/21 A Wedge 27.16 +0.16 24.75 29.7 293K 247K 23.02
A nice pullback to the 10 day MVA. Very orderly.
FHCC 06/11 cup hdl 27.9 -0.47 29.85 36 691K 951K 27.76
Still in the pattern, but insurance is struggling.
FORG 06/15 Test BO 5.11 -0.2 5.15 6.85 185K 140K 4.20
Holding up well.
FRX 06/10 Put 70.81 +0.78 72.45 68 1.3M 1.3M 75
Tried to rally, but showed a doji and closed below the 18 day MVA.
GILD 06/15 Put 32.15 -0.97 32.49 28.25 3.5M 3.4M 34.50
Tested the 200 day MVA and reversed.
HARB 06/22 BO 24.33 +0.35 24.11 29 86K 42K 21.75
HI 06/11 Put 49 -1 52.25 48 2.5M 3M 55.50
Heading lower again.
HLT 05/06 Put 13.89 +0.29 14.3 12 1.5M 1.9M 15.80
HLYW 05/29 Test 18 20.63 +0.31 19.25 27 687K 755K 17.9
Rising higher on slightly above average volume.
HOTT 06/12 Test BO 25.94 -0.81 27.05 32 847K 704K 24.64
Closed below the 18 day MVA on rising, above average volume.
HOTT 05/29 Test BO 25.94 -0.81 26.5 32 847K 704K 24.64
HUM 06/20 cup hdl 14.92 -0.67 17.34 21 1.7M 1.2M 16
Never gave the buy; tanking.
IGEN 06/17 Put 32.99 -1.25 35.15 32 201K 235K 37
Tanking as we wanted on rising volume.
IMH 03/26 A Wedge 12.95 +0.33 8.95 11.2 608K 403K 9.50
A quick test of the 10day MVA and bouncing.
KKD 06/24 Put 30.5 -3.4 33.75 30 2.8M 457K 36
KMI 06/19 Put 40 -0.2 40.75 37 566K 670K 43.25
Continuing its slow move lower.
KMI 05/25 Put 40 -0.2 44.75 40.25 566K 670K 41.62
LBIX 05/06 Flat 2.95 +0.4 1.95 3.5 408K 106K 1.58
What a move on some very strong volume.
LLL 06/10 Put 54.51 -2.09 59.1 54 12M 1.1M 62.50
Plowing lower on massive volume.
LTR 06/15 Put 53.12 -1.51 54.95 50.25 760K 461K 57
Tanked again on continued strong volume. It did not recover today.
MBAY 06/25 Dbl btm 5.01 +0.36 5.25 8 446K 159K 4.45
NCC 04/30 cup hdl 32.07 -0.3 31.42 37.25 927K 1.1M 29.75
Not a bad day. Lower volume and holding the 50 day MVA.
NCOG 06/22 Put 21.4 +0.09 21.3 18.04 205K 210K 24
Holding below the 200 day MVA with a doji that tested it. Still looks ready to fall.
ORB 06/04 cup hdl 6.83 -0.78 8.02 11.94 340K 331K 7.25
Not a good day, selling down to the 50 day MVA on rising volume. Still in the pattern.
PEET 06/18 A Wedge 18.1 -0.39 18.35 22 138K 224K 16.75
PTSI 06/24 Flat 25.44 -0.36 26.65 31.98 41K 60K 24.20
RE 06/11 Put 58.55 -0.54 58.55 54 242K 564K 63
Rolling down but on no volume.
RITA 05/28 Cup 9.73 +0.16 10.1 13.9 119K 102K 9.39
Showing another volume spike.
SAM 06/12 cup hdl 16 +0.1 16.85 20.5 19K 37K 15.45
SCLD 06/01 cup hdl 2.59 +0.09 3.54 4.95 9.4K 67K 3.15
SIE 06/11 Test 18 20.76 -0.28 20 24.25 291K 238K 18
SIE 06/11 Test 18 20.76 -0.28 21.1 25.45 291K 238K 19.62
SNIC 05/30 A Wedge 8.9 +0.21 8.2 11 372K 304K 6.95
Struggling now with somewhat of a double top.
SNS 04/12 Test BO 13.6 -0.63 14.8 18 180K 103K 13.76
Could not hang on, falling on continued above average volume.
SNS 04/10 Dbl btm 13.6 -0.63 14.65 18 180K 103K 13.76
SRCL 06/22 Test BO 37.37 -0.12 38.5 45 393K 306K 35.8
STT 05/20 Put 43.25 -0.29 47.35 42.5 1.4M 1.4M 51.50
Tested the 18 day MVA and then started down again.
TMPW 05/28 Put 23.03 -0.48 26.95 22.65 1.7M 2.6M 30.50
Hit the target.
TSN 05/22 Test BO 14.92 -0.23 15.15 18 997K 971K 14.50
Tried to move but then fell back on us. Pitched us a curve today.
TSN 05/11 Test BO 14.92 -0.23 14.5 17.5 997K 971K 13.48
UNP 06/22 Cup 61.24 -2.8 64.9 73 1.4M 1.2M 60.36
Got hammered today on big volume.
USAP 05/13 Test 18 10.9 -3.75 15.2 19 317K 94K 14.14
Slaughtered.
USPH 06/19 cup hdl 19.95 +0.19 20.05 25 276K 95K 18.65
Rising again on some good volume.
USPH 06/08 Flat 19.95 +0.19 19.1 24.85 276K 95K 17.25
USPI 05/15 Test 18 30.34 +1.78 28.05 37 541K 364K 26.09
A bounce higher to the 18 day MVA.
WMT 06/17 DB hdl 55.1 -0.65 59.4 73 8.6M 7.9M 55.24
Tried a move over the 50 day MVA but could not hold it and rolled back down.
WTW 05/23 Test BO 40.01 -0.49 43.7 50 593K 194K 40.64
Below the 50 day MVA on strong volume.
WYE 06/24 Put 50.2 -1.71 53.25 49.15 3.9M 4M 55
ZNT 05/23 A Wedge 31.77 -0.12 31.6 37.94 64K 36K 30
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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