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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
Leader Plays: Market leaders become split candidates
Play Date: 02/09/2010
CRL (Charles River Labs--$36.16; +0.47; optionable): "Lab animal expertise" is what they say but they supply animals for testing items from the biotech arena
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crl.html
After Hours: $36.16
EARNINGS: 02/08/2010
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After a long, steady uptrend from November 2008 through October 2009, CRL needed a break to consolidate and set the foundation for a new move. It has formed the current 15 week base, now working on a handle or final shakeout before a new break higher. Used the 200 day SMA on the pattern low as support, showing the big buyers still wanted it and used that dip to accumulate shares. Volume rallied as it bounced in early January, faded in the handle, and is up the past few sessions as it tested the 50 day EMA on the low. Earnings came out Monday and CRL bounced some Tuesday but struggled to hold all the move. It held up well, and we are simply going to be patient and see if CRL delivers a solid upside move post earnings.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CRL.wmv
Volume: 1.559M Avg Volume: 757.186K
BUY POINT: $36.44 Volume=1.2M Target=$41.94 Stop=$34.77
POSITION: CRL 10E35.00 - May $35c (56 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/09/2010
MJN (Mead Johnson Nutrition Company--$46.60; +0.55; optionable): Infant formula
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mjn.html
After Hours: $46.60
EARNINGS: 01/28/2010
STATUS: Ascending triangle. MJN looks to be in the latter stages of its first big base since its IPO in February 2009. After a solid rally through early October, MJN needed a consolidation so it formed this 4.5 month ascending triangle, making higher lows up the 50 day EMA below a relatively constant top at 46 to 47. Making a higher low at the 10 day EMA right now, and after a long pattern that is pinching off, that higher low at the 10 or 18 day EMA often precedes the breakout move. Thus we are simply watching and looking for a solid break higher that clears our buy point and can hold the move toward the close. That shows the breakout has some staying power so we use that signal to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MJN.wmv
Volume: 1.569M Avg Volume: 4.17M
BUY POINT: $47.21 Volume=6M Target=$54.55 Stop=$45.54
POSITION: MJN 10E45.00 - May $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/09/2010
SJT (San Juan Basin Royalty Trust--$20.76; +0.36; optionable): Oil and gas royalty trust
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sjt.html
After Hours: $20.71
EARNINGS: 11/09/2009 (no confirmation of next earnings)
STATUS: ABCD. SJT blasted off out of a 16 week trading range, clearing the top of the range on the gap. Rallied on to 23 and that was the breakout run peak. SJT has tested the past three weeks, but has held the gap up point on both tests. That is an indication of the strong support for the breakout move. This stair step test has not only tested and held the gap up, it has also formed an ABCD pattern based on the intraday low hit last Friday that undercut the last January low. This pattern has a lot of positives and we are ready to move in if SJT can make the move through the buy point and hold it heading into the close.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SJT.wmv
Volume: 149.689K Avg Volume: 254.516K
BUY POINT: $20.91 Volume=350K Target=$24.74 Stop=$19.77
POSITION: SJT 10G20.00 - July $20c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 02/09/2010
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$54.11; +2.32; optionable): Heavy mining machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
After Hours: $54.22
EARNINGS: 02/19/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. BUCY formed something of a head and shoulders pattern starting in late December. It made a lower high to start February and broke lower through last Friday. It reversed that session and bounced this week. Tuesday BUCY rallied to the 50 day EMA on the high, matching the closing high from early February. It faded back from that level, closing just below the 10 day EMA. Lower volume on the bounce though it was still above average. It gapped higher Tuesday, and if it gaps lower Wednesday and cannot fill the gap or tries and fails, that is our cue to move right on in. A move to our initial target lands us a 45%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BUCY.wmv
Volume: 3.186M Avg Volume: 2.679M
BUY POINT: $53.88 Volume=4M Target=$47.91 Stop=$56.04
POSITION: BUCY 10P55.00 - Apr. $55p (-45 delta)
Play Date: 02/09/2010
CRR (Carbo Ceramics--$63.73; -0.27; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crr.html
After Hours: $63.73
EARNINGS: 02/04/2010
STATUS: Bear Flag. CRR made a higher price high in early January, and as it did MACD made a lower high, showing a divergent top, an indication the upside move has lost momentum. CRR hung on for January as it faded lower to the November peaks and bounced. Then it announced earnings and gapped lower, gapping through the 50 day EMA and the November peak. CRR rebounded the past three sessions, but has not filled nearly all the gap, tapping the 50 day EMA on the Tuesday high (also the late January high) and fell back on rising, above average volume. Looking for CRR to break the November peak closing prices as our entry point. With that we anticipate CRR will fall near the late November/early December closing lows. That move lands us a 63%ish gain. No issues with that.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CRR.wmv
Volume: 319.264K Avg Volume: 297.978K
BUY POINT: $63.38 Volume=450K Target=$58.32 Stop=$66.08
POSITION: CRR 10C65.00 - Mar. $65p (-52 delta)
Play Date: 02/09/2010
IYT (Dow Jones Transportation ETF--$69.75; +1.20; optionable)
After Hours: $69.85
STATUS: Bear flag. IYT (transports) formed a broad umbrella top starting early December. Note how price hit a rally high at that point but MACD made a lower high. As it made a higher high in early January MACD made another lower high. Momentum definitely ebbing. It fell into January, bounced, then fall last week to the August peaks. It has bounced starting with the Friday reversal day, but volume fell below average this week as IYT tapped the 10 day EMA on the Tuesday high and fell significantly away from that level. Looking for IYT to fall down to the bottom of the range near the 200 day SMA near 66. That move gives us a 60%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/IYT.wmv
Volume: 732.668K Avg Volume: 869.595K
BUY POINT: $69.42 Volume=1.2M Target=$66.39 Stop=$70.52
POSITION: IYT 10O80.00 - Mar. $70p (-49 delta)
Play Date: 02/09/2010
QID (QQQ Proshares UltraShort ETF--$21.14; -0.44; optionable)
After Hours: $21.06
STATUS: Looking again at NASDAQ 100 as it failed to follow through on the Friday reversal, sagging back Monday as it gave away an early gain. QID is the mirror of the QQQQ: as QQQQ moves, QID moves the opposite direction at twice the speed. Tuesday QID was up, but after gapping higher it gave away the move after tapping the 10 day EMA on the high, showing a doji at the close. QQQQ has made lower highs, and in addition to that we like how the 60 minute chart looks as it shows a downside ABCD pattern. We are ready to move in as QID moves higher (as NASDAQ 100 moves lower) and ride QID as NASDAQ moves to its next support. A move to the target lands a 75%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/QID.wmv
Volume: 33.999M Avg Volume: 15.296M
BUY POINT: $21.24 Volume=20M Target=$24.21 Stop=$20.66
POSITION: QID 10D21.00 - Apr. $21c (59 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING PLAYS IN POSITION TO MOVE:
Play Date: 02/04/2010
HOLX (Hologic--$16.03; +0.03; optionable): Medical appliances, equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
After Hours: $16.04
EARNINGS: 02/01/2010
STATUS: Gap test. Still in the test after the early February earnings gap higher. Holding near support at the 10 day EMA, and just being patient for the break higher. To recap: HOLX set up a cup base but faded right before earnings to start February. It held the 50 day EMA, however, and earnings were solid, gapping it higher on strong volume. The gap moved it through key resistance at 16. The past two sessions it is testing, coming back modestly and still holding the gap move. May come back to 16ish before it starts higher, but if it holds in this general range of the close and starts higher it has held the gap up point, a bullish near term indication. That hold is one we want to buy when HOLX bounces higher off that test.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HOLX.wmv
Volume: 2.934M Avg Volume: 3.662M
BUY POINT: $16.41 Volume=5M Target=$19.91 Stop=$15.68
POSITION: HOLX 10F15.00 - June $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 02/08/2010
SLG (SI Green Realty--$44.26; +0.08; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slg.html
After Hours: $43.64
EARNINGS: 01/25/2010
STATUS: Rollover. SLG looked ready to break down Tuesday, but it recovered to hold the near support at 44. Volume was up, however, so we look for it to finish the break lower and give us the downside move. To recap: SLG is another stock we are playing again as it starts to break to the downside. It peaked in late December but MACD failed to do the same. It has made two lower highs since. Friday SLG tried to reverse and made some upside progress, but it could not punch back over the 50 day EMA after falling back through it last Thursday. Monday was the classic gap and rollover, making a new closing low this year, closing just below the range formed since late January. Looking to move in as SLG continues lower. A move to our initial target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 1.827M Avg Volume: 1.869M
BUY POINT: $44.04 Volume=2.5M Target=$40.03 Stop=$46.41
POSITION: SLG 10Q45.00 - May $45p (-50 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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