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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/11/2010
CRS (Carpenter Technology--$28.23; +1.01; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crs.html
After Hours: $28.23
EARNINGS: 01/26/2010
STATUS: ABCD. Classic setup as CRS trades at the 50 day EMA, starting back up Thursday on rising, average trade. CRS broke from a 12 week base in mid-December, and rallied higher through early January, peaking near 33. It has tested since, making a lower low and a lower high. That stair-step lower is the ABCD pattern that looks like the start of a downtrend but actually just consolidates the gains and shakes out the weaker holders. MACD remained strong, moving to a new high as the stock price moved to a new high; thus this is just a rather normal correction after a good move. Started higher Thursday, and if CRS continues upside it is a buy for a run up to the prior peak.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CRS.wmv
Volume: 569.743K Avg Volume: 537.198K
BUY POINT: $28.38 Volume=675K Target=$32.94 Stop=$25.88
POSITION: CRS 10F25.00 - June $25c (78 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/11/2010
TEX (Terex--$19.07; +0.69; optionable): Heavy arm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tex.html
After Hours: $19.00
EARNINGS: 07/22/2009
STATUS: Rolling. TEX has a lot going for it as it prepares to roll higher in its range from 18 to 25 spanning October to the present. It has held 18 twice before and over the past week is showing signs it is ready to hold again as it has moved in a flat lateral move as the rest of the market sold back. This range is sitting right on top of the prior range as well, an indication that the big money is quietly accumulating shares. Also, the 200 day SMA turned upward sloping in August, and then increased its speed to the upside through the present, now riding up just below the bottom of this range. That creates a double layer of support, and it is evident by the way TEX is acting. It is under accumulation from the big funds, and as it bounces back up in its range we are ready to move in as they move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TEX.wmv
Volume: 2.075M Avg Volume: 2.349M
BUY POINT: $19.22 Volume=2.8M Target=$23.77 Stop=$17.71
POSITION: TEX 10G18.00 - July $18c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/11/2010
CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$25.13; +0.73; optionable): Natural gas exploration, production
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html
After Hours: $25.19
EARNINGS: 02/17/2010
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. During the past week when the market sold further, CHK held the line at the 200 day SMA (24), trying to put in a higher low in its larger rolling pattern from early September. It held the line at this support and on Thursday started to bounce. Volume was up, but it was still well below average. Of course what we are looking for here is not a breakout but a roll back up in its range. Thus volume is not the primary factor here. A good start and if CHK continues higher then it is a good risk/reward entry point for us as our upside is up close to 30 with a clear stop point.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CHK.wmv
Volume: 9.545M Avg Volume: 14.742M
BUY POINT: $25.22 Volume=18M Target=$29.44 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: CHK 10G24.00 - July $24c (67 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/11/2010
PCLN (Priceline.com--$208.90; +2.50; optionable): Hotel room bidding, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
After Hours: $208.33
EARNINGS: 02/17/2010
STATUS: PCLN reversed on us and broke back above the 50 day EMA Thursday on rising volume. It looked to be breaking lower in late January and then again in early February, but it held the November gap up point (strong earnings) as it recovered from some selling in February on its earnings release. That move tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement, making a double bottom at that point. That is a pretty good indication a stock wants to move back up and that is what PCLN is doing. Ready to grab this run to the upside off this double bottom up to the prior peak.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PCLN.wmv
Volume: 858.114K Avg Volume: 1.176M
BUY POINT: $209.22 Volume=13M Target=$229.91 Stop=$199.77
POSITION: PCLN 10D210.00 - Apr. $210c (55 delta)
Downside:
Play Date: 02/11/2010
MSTR (Microstrategy--$84.54; +0.51; optionable): PC business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mstr.html
After Hours: $84.03
EARNINGS: April
STATUS: Bear flag. MSTR gapped sharply lower two week's back, gapping below a key consolidation level at 85, a consolidation formed after MSTR gapped UP in late October. Over the past week MSTR has rallied back, but Wednesday and Thursday it bumped its head at the gap down point and thus far cannot break through. This is an island reversal on a big scale, and that typically means more downside to come when you have a gap up then a gap down. Thus as MSTR rolls back down we are ready to enter for the ride back toward the prior gap up point at 76 to 77. That move lands us a 45%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MSTR.wmv
Volume: 151.659K Avg Volume: 133.721K
BUY POINT: $83.56 Volume=200K Target=$77.48 Stop=$85.21
POSITION: MSTR 10P85.00 - Apr. $85p (-50 delta)
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL
AMX
BBBY
CERN
CNMD
ESRX
FDX
HUM
JOYG
LUFK
NFLX
PNRA
ROST
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 01/14/2010
CNMD (Conmed--$22.46; +0.08; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnmd.html
After Hours: $22.38
EARNINGS: 02/04/2010
STATUS: Triangle. CNMD continues to work on its pattern, holding in a tight range over the 50 day EMA and price support at 22. Note how it sold off last week but then immediately rebounded to continue the pattern. That shows the buyers are still with it. Nice, but we have to be patient and see if CNMD shows us the break higher. To recap: CNMD has put together back to back triangles, the first from October to mid-December. That yielded a breakout, but it could not push higher. CNMD fell back and has now formed a shorter triangle, using the 50 day EMA as support. Started to push higher Thursday though volume was weak. Solid pattern and if it gets some volume on the upside it is a buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CNMD.wmv
Volume: 105.486K Avg Volume: 143.133K
BUY POINT: $22.89 Volume=265K Target=$26.45 Stop=$21.56
POSITION: CNMD 10E20.00 - May $20c (69 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/04/2010
HOLX (Hologic--$16.11; +0.08; optionable): Medical appliances, equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
After Hours: $16.03
EARNINGS: 02/01/2010
STATUS: Gap test. HOLX continues to look good and on Thursday it improved even more with a bounce off of some rising volume. We have been patient and it looks as if that is about to pay off. Indeed if you feel a bit aggressive you can move in as it continues higher from here without waiting for a move through 16.41. To recap: HOLX set up a cup base but faded right before earnings to start February. It held the 50 day EMA, however, and earnings were solid, gapping it higher on strong volume. The gap moved it through key resistance at 16. The past two sessions it is testing, coming back modestly and still holding the gap move. May come back to 16ish before it starts higher, but if it holds in this general range of the close and starts higher it has held the gap up point, a bullish near term indication. That hold is one we want to buy when HOLX bounces higher off that test.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HOLX.wmv
Volume: 3.634M Avg Volume: 3.632M
BUY POINT: $16.41 Volume=5M Target=$19.91 Stop=$15.68
POSITION: HOLX 10F15.00 - June $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 01/29/2010
IPAR (Inter Parfums--$13.41; +0.18; no options): Perfume
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ipar.html
After Hours: $13.18
EARNINGS: 11/09/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. IPAR might be ready to spritz higher. It has put in a very steady, orderly test of the late January break from the 5 month cup base and started to break higher Thursday. No volume but any solid trade on the move higher will be good. Nice setup.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HOLX.wmv
Volume: 59.36K Avg Volume: 76K
BUY POINT: $13.52 Volume=150K Target=$16.00 Stop=$12.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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