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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
New Pre-Announcement Play:
Play Date: 02/13/2010
JOYG (Joy Global--$47.28; -0.18; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
After Hours: $47.32
EARNINGS: 03/03/2010
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. JOYG was not immune to the selling in January as it gave up a breakout from a 10 week base formed at the 50 day EMA. It reversed the third week of January, break down through the bottom of the base. It ended up at the 200 day SMA the first week of February and there it held. That is an important support level for the big funds; they either buy or sell at that level, and as JOYG held the line there for a week, they were picking it up, supporting the stock. Moreover, this level has held more than once in the long past as support. Late in the week volume started to rise and JOYG started higher off that level. Something of a double bottom at this level and we are looking to move in for a run back up into the base. That moves gives us a nice gain on a simple rebound play.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JOYG.wmv
Volume: 2.616M Avg Volume: 3.163M
BUY POINT: $48.24 Volume=4M Target=$55.00 Stop=$44.86
POSITION: JOYG 10G46.00 - July $46c (57 delta) &/or Stock
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/12/2010
CAGC (China Agritech--$17.30; -0.03; no options): Organic fertilizers, China
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cagc.html
After Hours: $16.96
EARNINGS: No date confirmed
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A new issue in September 2009, CAGC rallied nicely through January and then tested in the recent selling, forming its first real base. It fell back to the 50 day EMA at the bottom of the 5 week pattern, a level coincident with the December lateral consolidation. Nice gap higher a week back on a strong earnings report. It has slid laterally since, holding the gains and in great position to move higher from here. It also announced a split on the earnings date, effective the date of the announcement. Very solid action and we are looking to move in as CAGC breaks higher and clears this lateral consolidation.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CAGC.wmv
Volume: 532.693K Avg Volume: 1.063M
BUY POINT: $17.61 Volume=1.2M Target=$21.32 Stop=$15.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
Play Date: 02/13/2010
HANS (Hansen Natural--$39.23; +0.11; optionable): Monster drinks, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hans.html
After Hours: $39.23
EARNINGS: 11/05/2009
STATUS: After a good run starting mid-December (as with most stocks, right?) HANS peaked out the third week of January and tested back, taking a breather after that move. It has come back to the 50 day EMA and the Fibonacci 38% retracement, the near retracement that signals the momentum is still solid. It is also holding over the October peak; three layers of support here, and it shows as HANS worked laterally over that level this money. We are looking for HANS to make the next break higher and give us the entry for the next run.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HANS.wmv
Volume: 543.227K Avg Volume: 711.63K
BUY POINT: $39.41 Volume=875K Target=$44.94 Stop=$37.68
POSITION: HANS 10F38.00 - June $38c (62 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/13/2010
TSL (Trina Solar--$24.33; +0.90; optionable): Solar equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsl.html
After Hours: $24.31
EARNINGS: Last announced 11/19/2009. Date not confirmed for next announcement.
STATUS: TSL sported a solid uptrend through mid-January, then broke sharply lower mid-month as it headed for its stock split. A pretty hefty haircut, but it held at the 61% Fibonacci retracement and has angled higher the past four weeks, moving up to the 50 day EMA and the early December consolidation range at 24. Volume jumped Friday as TSL broke through the 50 day EMA. If it can continue this move we are looking to play the upside as TSL recovers. Our target is at the January peak; doesn't have to break new ground there, and we can take some of the gain off the table and see if TSL can deliver a breakout.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TSL.wmv
Volume: 3.907M Avg Volume: 3.361M
BUY POINT: $24.68 Volume=4M Target=$29.91 Stop=$22.54
POSITION: TSL 10F23.50 - June $23.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/13/2010
FNSR (Finisar--$11.40; +0.29; optionable): Networking equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnsr.html
After Hours: $11.40
EARNINGS: Second week of March
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. FNSR is working on a base on base setup. It formed a 3 month base through early January, then broke out to start 2010. Rallied over 11 and then in the market selling it faded, holding the 50 day EMA on the lows, coincident with the November and December peaks. Gapped higher on Wednesday with a strong shot of volume, paused Thursday, then was back up Friday on another shot of stronger trade. FNSR is in position to break free of some resistance and as it continues we are ready to move into the play.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/FNSR.wmv
Volume: 1.341M Avg Volume: 899.586K
BUY POINT: $11.57 Volume=1.2M Target=$13.97 Stop=$10.55
POSITION: FNSR 10F10.00 - June $10c (74 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/13/2010
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$28.76; -0.20; optionable): Dental equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
After Hours: $28.76
EARNINGS: Last announced 11/19/2009. Current date not confirmed.
STATUS: Pennant. PDCO is in a 5 week pullback to the 50 day EMA, consolidating the early January breakout of a 4.5 month cup wit handle base. Solid break but then the market started to struggle some and PDCO faded back to the 50 day EMA, moving laterally the past three weeks as it sits on top of the prior base. Volume started to jump to end last week as buyers support it at this key level. PDCO looks very good to bounce from here and continue the breakout move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PDCO.wmv
Volume: 1.895M Avg Volume: 1.188M
BUY POINT: $29.09 Volume=1.3M Target=$33.89 Stop=$27.97
POSITION: PDCO 10D25.00 - Apr. $25c (85 delta) or PDCO 10G30.00 - July $30c (48 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 02/13/2010
EGOV (Nic, Inc.--$7.34; +0.07; optionable): eGovernment services using the internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/egov.html
After Hours: $7.34
EARNINGS: 02/04/2010
STATUS: EGOV flattened out from October in December, running out of steam in its uptrend. MACD indicated as much as it made lower highs as EGOV made higher price highs on the move. Tested in January, and then gapped sharply lower in early February on earnings. That move gapped EGOV through the July to September consolidation range from 7.50 to 8. Volume was huge. This is a classic breakaway gap to the downside. Those gaps tend to continue in the direction of the gap. EGOV bounced Thursday and Friday, but when it turns back over we look to move in for a further drop to the downside. A move to the target lands a 70%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/EGOV.wmv
Volume: 301.782K Avg Volume: 318.581K
BUY POINT: $7.21 Volume=400K Target=$6.04 Stop=$7.62
POSITION: EGOV 10/7.50 - Apr. $7.50p (-50 delta)
Play Date: 02/13/2010
HAL (Halliburton--$30.02; -0.14; optionable): Oil and gas services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hal.html
After Hours: $30.02
EARNINGS: 04/19/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. HAL has weakened with this last rally in January. It rolled over to end the month, tried to hold the 50 day EMA but failed. A quick test bumped that level and faded again, making a lower low in early February. The pattern formed a head and shoulders top. The past week HAL recovered back up to the neckline in the pattern. Friday volume bounced above average as HAL went nowhere. Maybe that was just the SP500 rebalance, but HAL is butting against significant resistance at 30 to 30.50. Watching to see if HAL turns over early next week, and if so that is when we move in on the downside play. A run to the target lands a 65%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HAL.wmv
Volume: 14.981M Avg Volume: 14.133M
BUY POINT: $29.65 Volume=18M Target=$26.55 Stop=$30.44
POSITION: HAL 10P31.00 - Apr. $31p (-55 delta)
Play Date: 02/13/2010
MA (MasterCard--$225.48; -3.52; optionable): Consumer credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
After Hours: $225.61
EARNINGS: 02/04/2010
STATUS: Breakaway gap. MA formed a short head and shoulders pattern from late December to early February. Not necessarily fatal in itself. When earnings hit, however, MA suffered a big gap downside on very strong volume. Last week it rebounded, but just modestly, stalling out below 230, a resistance point from prior highs and lows. These breakaway gaps tend to continue moving in the direction of the gap, and indeed on Friday MA started to turn back down. We are looking to move in as it continues to the downside, and heads toward the 200 day SMA near 210. A move to the target lands a 48%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MA.wmv
Volume: 1.484M Avg Volume: 1.54M
BUY POINT: $224.42 Volume=2M Target=$212.00 Stop=$230.11
POSITION: MA 10P230.00 - Apr. $230p (-54 delta)
Play Date: 02/13/2010
SSD (Simpson Manufacturing--$24.67; +0.44; optionable): Small tools, accessories
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssd.html
After Hours: $24.67
EARNINGS: 02/02/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. SSD bounced up and down in a trading range from August into late January, holding at 24 on the lows in the range. SSD gapped lower to start February after it announced earnings. The move took SSD quickly down to 21 where it rebounded and recovered the lost ground through Friday. Indeed, it just about filled the gap, stalling just below the 200 day SMA on the close. This is an important resistance level given the size and regular moves in the trading range. We are going to watch and see if SSD turns back over at the bottom of the prior range. If so we move in and ride SSD back down to the prior low as our initial target to take some gain. A move to that level lands a 60%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SSD.wmv
Volume: 285.756K Avg Volume: 269.21K
BUY POINT: $24.35 Volume=300K Target=$21.32 Stop=$25.21
POSITION: SSD 10R25.00 - June $25p (-54 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock watch
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