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us stock market, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 2
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: When a target is hit, can we protect our gain with a tight stop or must we sell?
A: There are not absolutes in any position or with most things in life. A target is a projected point to where a stock will rise or fall based on the pattern, support, resistance, the overall market, etc. When it is hit there could be other factors that warrant letting a position ride. With that said, we also like to avoid changing the game plan during the heat of battle, particularly in this market. We have seen stocks rise to hit the target just to turn and fall back down. Today we saw puts hit the targets early and we closed out a lot of the positions that did hit the targets. Later in the session the stocks rallied as the market continues its pattern of selling to new lows and then covering up positions. Those are some good reasons to close out positions in this market.
What we also do, however, especially if the stock is really outperforming the market and showing great resilience, is sell at least part of the position when the target is hit and let the other part ride. This depends upone how fast the stock has risen as well. If it shoots up like a rocket, we are less inclined to let it come back on us; they all test the move to some extent, and in this market the tests can be steep as well. If support is near at hand we can take some money off the table, move the stop (we prefer mental stops to avoid market maker games where possible) and see if the stock will hold and continue its move. If it does we can add to the position then: the test has been successful and the stock is showing us it is worthy of our money. In more stable markets we can let more of the position ride. In this market we are usually happy with a nice gain that hits the target; if the stock pulls back and sets up again, we can play it again with that profit already tucked away.
THE PLAYS
We are keeping the plays to the best of the best and have all plays listed in the summary table to make it easy to follow the action for each session as well as our comments on the action. Our goal is get you onto the best plays and to have a report that is very functional for you to use.
BONUS PLAYS:
Downside
SLM (SLM Corp.--$94.20; +0.29; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
STATUS: Put. SLM broke the 50 day MVA in early June, tested lower, and rallied back up to test. It has been trying to break back, but the resistance is too strong in this head and shoulders pattern with a very weak right shoulder. It gapped lower Wednesday and rallied up to the 18 day MVA again (94.38). Money flow has tanked ahead of the move. Looking for a roll down back toward the 200 day MVA.
Volume: 851.3K Avg Volume: 697K
BUY POINT: $93.78 Volume=850K Target=$89.75 Stop=$96
POSITION: SLM TT - Aug. $100 put (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slm.html
Upside:
CLDN (Celadon Group--$12.60; -0.03; no options): Air freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cldn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CLDN galloped up to 12, making 4 bounces up the 18 day MVA after breaking out in April. It came back to test the 50 day MVA in early June, spending three weeks in a small consolidation at 10. It launched higher a week ago on super volume and is now testing that move, holding right on top of the recent high at 12. The pullback has been on lower volume just as it should be. Looking for a nice bounce from here with super accumulation and relative strength.
Volume: 46.6K Avg Volume: 94.045K
BUY POINT: $12.93 Volume=100K Target=$15.15 Stop=$11.50
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cldn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS
EDMC (Education Management--$42.74; -1.16; optionable): Researching a date for this split candidate, but the pattern has formed up well.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edmc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 12-2-98 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $47. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: Cup with handle. Getting the handle forming here.
Volume: 632.6K Avg Volume: 247.045K
BUY POINT: $44.70 Volume=334K Target=$53 Stop=$39.50
POSITION: Stock and/or UKN LG - Dec. $35 call (Low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/edmc.html
CONTINUING CANDIDATES
HCA (HCA, Inc.--$48.30; -0.09; optionable): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hca.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA after all of that supreme court nonsense, and showing some rising volume on the move. Looks as if it did its testing of the 50 day after this last run up the 18 day MVA. Getting ready for some more positions.
Volume: 3.237M Avg Volume: 2.25M
BUY POINT: $49.60 Volume=3.2M Target=$50 Stop=$47
POSITION: HCA KV - Nov. $42.50 call (82 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hca.html
WEN (Wendys International--$39.57; -0.06; optionable): Hamburger joint
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wen.html
STATUS: Okay, it was making a good move today on good volume. Problem is, it stopped off for a #1 combo meal with biggie fries and drink and the government food police pulled it back at the 18 day MVA. In any event, it looks ready to go now. We are looking for new positions on the move higher.
Volume: 1.781M Avg Volume: 872.636K
BUY POINT: $40.50 (original $40.05). Volume=1.3M Target=$48 Stop=$39
POSITION: WEN LG - Dec. $35 call (78 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wen.html
POST-SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$31.15; -0.76; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Making the test of the breakout as anticipated, with volume rolling in much lower. It held above the 10 day MVA (30.02), just where it should hold. Looking for a good move back up. Hot sector.
Volume: 1.08M Avg Volume: 400.818K
BUY POINT: $31.35 Volume=450K Target=$37.25 Stop=$29.16
POSITION: UCS KE - Nov. $25 call (83 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
FNF (Fidelity National Financial--$29.97; -0.55; optionable): Surety & Title Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnf.html
STATUS: A tight doji on the 18 day MVA with high volume. Looks ready to bounce on this test of the breakout.
Volume: 825.2K Avg Volume: 543.5K
BUY POINT: New positions over $31.05 Volume=650K Target=$36 Stop=$28.88
POSITION: FNF JE - Oct. $25 call (88 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fnf.html
JAH (Jarden--$19.33; -0.1; no options): Rubber and plastics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Ah, easy and uncomplicated business: plastics. Moving laterally along the 10 day MVA. Volume moved up today. It is testing the move higher and it is ready to move up again now.
Volume: 118.7K Avg Volume: 65.318K
BUY POINT: $19.48 Volume=125K Target=$23.5 Stop=$17.25
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
BONUS PLAYS REVISITED
EME (Emcor Group--$56.4; -0.1; optionable): General contractor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eme.html
STATUS: Has been testing the 50 day MVA (56.70) for the past week. Even with all of the good housing news EME has been unable to move over the 50 day MVA even though it has tried each day. Volume has tapered off, and it looks ready to fall back after this low volume attempt to break back over this key level.
Volume: 82.3K Avg Volume: 89.681K
BUY POINT: $55.75 Volume=95K Target=$49.85 Stop=$58.50
POSITION: EME TL - Aug. 60 put (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eme.html
MMSI (Merit Medical Systems--$18.97; +0.20; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmsi.html
STATUS: Very nice recovery after getting dumped on a bit Monday. Today it rallied off of the 10 day MVA on rising, above average volume. Looks ready for the breakout.
Volume: 210.8K Avg Volume: 153.545K
BUY POINT: $19.50 Volume=240K Target=$23.4 Stop=$18.14
POSITION: RMQ JC - Oct. $15 call (80 delta Low OI) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mmsi.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
We have put all plays in a summary table that contains the date the stock was put on the report (so you can go back and check out the details of the play) and the other pertinent information. This provides more information than the watchlist summaries and still contains comments when appropriate. VIEW THIS IN COURIER NEW, 12 FOR BEST RESULTS. You can also easily print the table from the website (www.investmenthouse.com) from the 'current reports' section. If you just want to print the table you can cut and paste it to a word document setting the font to Courier New size 12. Just left click on the beginning of the table and drag to the table end. After selecting, right click and select 'copy.' Paste into your word processor. Select it all and choose Courier New, font size 12.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABY 06/25 Flat 8.9 -0.35 9.55 11.5 1.4M 243K 8.55
ACXM 05/30 A Wedge 16.8 +0.15 17.7 21 715K 624K 16.05
ADVP 06/22 Put 24.46 +0.21 25.25 21 961K 2.4M 28
AET 06/13 Saucer 47.37 +1 50.35 60 1.8M 1.3M 46.83
AMGN 06/20 Put 40.81 +0.15 40.9 37 19M 13M 44.20
ATK 06/06 Put 65 +3 104.4 60 1M 377K 71
AXP 06/19 Put 35.67 -0.65 37.75 34.05 6.1M 4.7M 41
AZO 06/18 Test BO 78.9 +0.67 83.5 99.5 2.2M 1M 77.66
BAC 06/11 Put 67.45 -2.58 69.9 65 11M 5.8M 73
BBBY 05/11 Flat 36.92 +0.47 36.28 42 4.6M 3.2M 33
BLI 06/11 Test BO 18.62 +0.09 18.5 22 1.2M 626K 17.30
BPOP 06/15 cup hdl 32.22 -0.68 32.35 36.5 141K 111K 30.50
CBSH 06/20 BO 43.28 -0.52 46.67 56 259K 122K 43.85
CHRZ 04/16 A Wedge 4.02 0 4.2 5.9 137K 77K 4.10
CHS 05/11 Test 50 36.59 -0.42 37.35 43.98 906K 676K 35.95
CLDN 06/26 Test BO 12.6 -0.03 12.93 15.15 47K 94K 11.50
CMPC 06/12 Test BO 3.58 +0.03 4.1 5.63 105K 137K 3.55
COCO 06/26 Test 18 31.15 -0.76 31.35 37.25 1.1M 401K 29.16
COCO 06/20 cup hdl 31.15 -0.76 29.59 35.55 1.1M 401K 27.25
COCO 06/01 Test 50 31.15 -0.76 28.1 34 1.1M 401K 26.20
COH 06/22 PreSplt 53.2 +2.08 55.51 60 1M 493K 51.62
CTX 05/11 Put 55.92 +0.83 53.5 49 1.2M 1.2M 56
CUB 06/19 Put 21.95 0 23.99 20.5 194K 137K 26.75
CYMI 06/25 H&S 34.08 +0.95 32.95 25.55 2.7M 1.5M 37
CYMI 06/03 Put 34.08 +0.95 39.45 33.8 2.7M 1.5M 44
DF 06/22 A Wedge 36.82 +0.3 38.76 45 805K 537K 36.25
DNR 05/21 cup hdl 10.3 +0.15 9.56 12 266K 97K 8.89
EDMC 06/22 cup hdl 42.74 -1.16 42.05 53 633K 247K 39.50
EME 06/26 Put 56.4 -0.1 55.75 49.85 82K 90K 58.50
EME 05/21 Put 56.4 -0.1 57.15 50 82K 90K 60
ERES 06/18 PreSplt 23.65 -0.15 23.06 26 70K 106K 21.20
FISV 06/18 Put 35.8 +0.64 38.45 34.5 3.9M 1.8M 41.25
FITB 05/25 Put 64.44 -0.23 66.1 62.62 3.4M 1.8M 68
FNF 06/25 Test 18 29.97 -0.55 31.05 36 825K 544K 28.88
FNF 05/22 Test 18 29.97 -0.55 30.6 35 825K 544K 28.46
FOE 06/01 A Wedge 30.22 +0.02 30.34 35 265K 196K 28.50
FOSL 06/22 BO 21.76 -0.19 23.42 28 235K 142K 21.65
FOSL 06/04 PreSplt 21.76 -0.19 32.1 24 235K 142K 19.90
FTEK 06/12 Test BO 6.55 -0.2 6.92 8.25 69K 63K 6.37
FTEK 06/01 A Wedge 6.55 -0.2 6.65 8 69K 63K 5.95
GB 05/28 Put 25.03 +0.32 24.9 21.3 160K 80K 27
GGUY 06/15 Test BO 3.44 -0.05 3.95 6 119K 132K 3.67
GISX 06/24 A Wedge 18.75 -0.46 20.85 25.48 134K 160K 18.25
GLYN 05/18 BO 20.9 -0.71 20.66 24 170K 173K 19.12
GRMN 05/14 cup hdl 22.06 -0.15 23.4 28 143K 122K 22.05
HCA 06/26 Test 50 48.3 -0.09 49.6 50 3.2M 2.2M 47
HCA 06/10 Test BO 48.3 -0.09 49.6 59 3.2M 2.2M 47.50
HET 06/08 Put 44.2 -1.25 45.5 40 1.5M 1.1M 47.25
HP 06/01 Put 35.89 -0.01 37.45 33 277K 310K 39.80
HUG 06/18 BO 41.52 -0.34 43.09 52 132K 169K 39.50
JAH 06/19 BO 19.33 -0.1 19.05 23.5 119K 65K 17.25
JAH 05/21 PreSplt 19.33 -0.1 37.6 21.5 119K 65K 17.50
JCI 06/25 Put 77.15 -1.26 78.3 75 1.3M 442K 81
JILL 06/22 PreSplt 35.5 -0.1 34.8 39.96 180K 261K 33.25
KSWS 06/18 PreSplt 23.98 0 48.25 52.5 101K 82K 44.50
MAR 06/12 Put 38.55 -0.25 38.25 34 931K 875K 41
MHP 06/18 Put 59 +0.39 59.55 56 799K 574K 61.25
MMC 06/25 Put 94.21 +0.85 93.25 89 1.2M 970K 97
MMSI 06/22 cup hdl 18.97 +0.2 19.5 23.4 211K 154K 18.14
MNTR 06/15 Put 36.5 -0.37 35.95 32.2 122K 116K 38
MUR 06/04 Put 83.8 -0.83 89.5 84 198K 271K 93.50
NCR 06/24 Put 34 -0.01 35.25 31.15 1.1M 488K 38
NMHC 06/18 cup hdl 9.45 -0.4 13 15.6 18K 30K 11.90
NYT 06/19 Test BO 50.6 -0.4 51.1 61 1.2M 516K 47.80
ODSY 06/05 A Wedge 32.95 +0.5 36.1 42 235K 181K 33.57
OVTI 06/24 BO 13.48 -0.42 14.55 19.48 519K 337K 12.85
PDCO 05/23 Test 50 49.45 +0.9 49 57 486K 318K 45.75
PFCB 06/06 Put 31.06 +0.52 32.9 28 859K 547K 35.50
PHM 05/25 Flat 57.59 +0.98 55.95 67.45 711K 680K 52.03
PII 06/25 Put 66 -1.15 66.15 62.15 204K 184K 70
PNRA 06/17 PreSplt 33.6 -0.25 35.08 38.38 1.1M 450K 32.62
QCOM 06/05 Put 27.08 +0.72 31.5 25 22M 15M 33.50
RF 04/16 A Wedge 34.45 -0.25 34.96 40.5 664K 499K 34
SLM 06/26 Put 94.2 +0.29 93.78 89.75 851K 697K 96
SRCL 06/22 Test BO 35.34 -2.03 38.5 45 985K 311K 35.8
STJ 06/25 Put 74.19 -0.85 74.45 70.15 760K 700K 76.35
TECD 06/11 Put 36.78 -0.19 39.35 35 473K 795K 41.50
TFX 06/22 A Wedge 55.4 -0.7 58.35 70.1 234K 133K 55.15
THC 06/22 PreSplt 71.85 +0.84 75.55 80.51 2.1M 1.7M 73.50
THC 06/17 PreSplt 71.85 +0.84 75.55 80.5 2.1M 1.7M 73.50
THC 05/14 Test 50 71.85 +0.84 72.5 86 2.1M 1.7M 67.42
THQI 05/23 Put 30.23 +0.43 31.9 25.1 900K 1.1M 34
TKR 05/25 Put 23.13 -0.14 23.4 19 212K 282K 25.60
TRBS 06/20 cup hdl 50.35 +0.06 51.25 61.51 56K 62K 47.50
WB 05/08 Test 50 36.96 -0.64 38.97 45 3.2M 2.6M 36.45
WEN 06/25 Test 18 39.57 -0.06 40.05 48 1.8M 873K 39
WEN 06/01 BO 39.57 -0.06 38.6 44 1.8M 873K 36.90
WM 05/08 Test 18 37.65 +0.05 38.8 44 5.1M 3.6M 37
WTSLA 06/17 cup hdl 23.42 +0.32 25.34 30.75 421K 315K 22.85
ZQK 06/12 Test BO 24.4 +0.03 27.1 32 209K 246K 25.20
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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