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trade stock, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
Pre-Announcement Play:
Play Date: 02/16/2010
IBM (International Business Machines--$125.23; +1.23; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
After Hours: $124.97
EARNINGS: 01/19/2010
STATUS: Double bottom. A familiar pattern in the market, the short double bottom following the selloff from mid-January. IBM put that pattern in place right at some support at 122 from the September peak as well as the October consolidation range. Gapped higher Tuesday and filled the gap intraday before rebounding to close with a gain. Looking to grab some upside momentum as IBM continues to recover and rally toward the next resistance from 130 to 132.50.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/IBM.wmv
Volume: 6.777M Avg Volume: 6.474M
BUY POINT: $125.44 Volume=7.5M Target=$131.95 Stop=$121.48
POSITION: IBM 10D 125.00 - Apr. $125c (53 delta)
Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 02/16/2010
ATW (Atwood Oceanics--$34.03; +1.01; optionable): Offshore drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atw.html
After Hours: $34.03
EARNINGS: 02/03/2010
STATUS: Rolling. Taking another look at ATW as it consolidates laterally just below its prior range. ATW rolled up and down from October through January, then tried to break higher to start February for another roll upside, but it stalled and fell through the bottom of the range. It did not implode, however, holding at the bottom of the September consolidation. It looks as if it broke down from the range, but it has held and is trying to break back inside. If it can do it ATW has shown something of a false breakdown and likely rolls nicely back up in the trading range.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ATW.wmv
Volume: 1.083M Avg Volume: 1.001M
BUY POINT: $34.21 Volume=1.3M Target=$39.45 Stop=$32.03
POSITION: ATW 10F30.00 - June $30c (70 delta) &/or Stock
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/16/2010
DECK (Deckers Outdoor--$101.32; +1.82; optionable): Footwear and accessories
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/deck.html
After Hours: $99.49
EARNINGS: 10/22/2009
STATUS: ABCD. Good run from late December through early January that broke DECK out of a 9 week trading range between 90 and 100. Surged on good volume out of the trading range, moving up to 112 on the run. It has stair-stepped back the past 5 weeks, making a lower high and a lower low, at least since the January peak. That surge in December and January followed by that step back contained within the confines of that prior surge sets up the ABCD pattern. Tuesday DECK was up, moving through the B point. That is a legitimate buy point for us, particularly given the room to run to the upside and given the top of the October to December range is at that level; wanted to see it break it. Looking to use options here as we get better leverage on the rally to the upside.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DECK.wmv
Volume: 202.502K Avg Volume: 428.766K
BUY POINT: $101.56 Volume=500K Target=$112.44 Stop=$94.45
POSITION: DECK 10D100.00 - Apr. $100c 53 delta)
Play Date: 02/16/2010
SINA (Sina.com--$37.43; +1.37; optionable): China internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
After Hours: $36.04
EARNINGS: 11/16/2009
STATUS: SINA fell out of a 2 month lateral consolidation, starting the fall mid-January. Fell straight to the 200 day SMA to start February and has bounced some but failed to get off that support. Thursday it showed good volume as it bounced upside, and Monday SINA bounced again on rising, above average volume once more. Looks as if it has set its near term bottom here and we are looking to move in as SINA continues to the upside.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SINA.wmv
Volume: 1.103M Avg Volume: 1.077M
BUY POINT: $37.61 Volume=1.4M Target=$43.85 Stop=$35.11
POSITION: SINA 10F35.00 - June $35c (58 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 02/16/2010
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$47.43; +0.27; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $47.16
EARNINGS: 02/09/2010
STATUS: Looking at CTSH again as it bounced off some support just over a week back and rallied back toward the January peak at 49. Tuesday CTSH showed an evening star doji as it tapped at the January peak on the intraday high (48.34). It fell back to flat on the close. That move up to the Tuesday high also was a move back to the Fibonacci 78% retracement level. Combined with that evening star doji CTSH looks very interesting for another run lower. As it falls below the Friday close and holds the move we move in. A run to the target lands a 75%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CTSH.wmv
Volume: 3.703M Avg Volume: 3.42M
BUY POINT: $47.12 Volume=4M Target=$43.08 Stop=$48.54
POSITION: CTSH 10P47.50 - Apr. $47.50p (-48 delta)
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Pre-Announcement:
Play Date: 01/14/2010
CNMD (Conmed--$22.48; 0.00; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnmd.html
After Hours: $22.48
EARNINGS: 02/04/2010
STATUS: Triangle. Still looking solid, gapping some Tuesday but not holding the move. That is fine as it remains in good buying position. It also was not a day for the medical appliances overall. Being patient and waiting for this good pattern to reveal a good upside break. To recap: To recap: CNMD has put together back to back triangles, the first from October to mid-December. That yielded a breakout, but it could not push higher. CNMD fell back and has now formed a shorter triangle, using the 50 day EMA as support. Started to push higher Thursday though volume was weak. Solid pattern and if it gets some volume on the upside it is a buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CNMD.wmv
Volume: 92.292K Avg Volume: 142.497K
BUY POINT: $22.89 Volume=265K Target=$26.45 Stop=$21.56
POSITION: CNMD 10E20.00 - May $20c (69 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/04/2010
HOLX (Hologic--$16.09; +0.09; optionable): Medical appliances, equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
After Hours: $16.00
EARNINGS: 02/01/2010
STATUS: Gap test. Still looking super, just not giving us the break higher yet. It either will or it won't, and it is getting ripe to show us something. To recap: HOLX set up a cup base but faded right before earnings to start February. It held the 50 day EMA, however, and earnings were solid, gapping it higher on strong volume. The gap moved it through key resistance at 16. The past two sessions it is testing, coming back modestly and still holding the gap move. May come back to 16ish before it starts higher, but if it holds in this general range of the close and starts higher it has held the gap up point, a bullish near term indication. That hold is one we want to buy when HOLX bounces higher off that test.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HOLX.wmv
Volume: 5.324M Avg Volume: 3.627M
BUY POINT: $16.41 Volume=5M Target=$19.91 Stop=$15.68
POSITION: HOLX 10F15.00 - June $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 01/29/2010
IPAR (Inter Parfums--$13.62; +0.40; no options): Perfume
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ipar.html
After Hours: $13.21
EARNINGS: 11/09/2009
STATUS: Breakout test. Getting all dressed up to move higher, starting to bounce Tuesday though showing very little volume. Wanted to see a bit more given it was a breakout move, or at least the resumption thereof. To recap: IPAR might be ready to spritz higher. It has put in a very steady, orderly test of the late January break from the 5 month cup base and started to break higher Thursday. No volume but any solid trade on the move higher will be good. Nice setup.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HOLX.wmv
Volume: 52.045K Avg Volume: 76K
BUY POINT: $13.52 Volume=150K Target=$16.00 Stop=$12.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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