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us stock market, trend trading stock
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2/18/10 Stock Split Report
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Stock Split Report Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: MFLX; PCLN
Buy alerts: RIMM; SINA; TSL
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: BCSI
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the SSR alert service you can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertssr.html
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The Market Summary video is broken into component parts to facilitate viewing: Market Overview, Technical Summary, Economy, and the Next Session. Click on the link to the portion(s) you wish to view.
MARKET OVERVIEW
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MarketOverview.wmv
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TechnicalSummary.wmv
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NextSession.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- Market overcomes softness to continue the rebound.
- SP500 moving through its next resistance as NASDAQ extends its break.
- LEI, Philly Fed outweigh higher jobless claims, producer inflation in favor of the buyers.
- Looked as if a test of the January high was very possible for NASDAQ, SP600 small caps. After Fed raises discount rates after hours, a bit of rough sledding could be ahead Friday morning.
Market looked ready to rest, but after a slow start SP500 moved through 1105.
Market looked ready to rest, but after a slow start SP500 moved through 1105.
After a week of gains and the last two days of gapping higher, the market looked tired. SP500 bumped up against its next resistance from 1100-1105. The futures were lower across the board to start the session as all indices were trading down. WMT had its earnings, but it missed on revenues. The question was whether buyers are trading up and going to other retailers or just not buying at WMT anymore because things are tight. Either way, it missed and its guidance was a disappointment. That overshadowed beats by AMAT and NVIDIA. It did not help that jobless claims were higher again (473K versus 438K; 442K the week prior). Producer prices were up, so they did not help either. That suggests there is some kind of inflation going on. With a 1.4% gain overall, that was mostly oil. It is always oil, is it not? As long as we are this reliant on crude oil, and we do not produce much of our own, we will have a large trade deficit and problems with prices when we have to import ever-rising oil. The market was set for a lower open, and it made sense after the gains to this point. Even though NASDAQ had broken through its resistance at 2205, SP500 has not done that. It was tired and slumped at the open.
The Leading Economic Indicators did not come in as good as expected, but they posted another gain at 0.3%. That makes it in the neighborhood of eight straight months of rise. Then the Philadelphia Fed Index came out, showing an upside gain (17.6 versus 15.2 the prior month). That news helped the market put together a recovery and a rally back to positive by mid-morning. The dollar had been stronger, trading premarket at 1.3585 Euros. It started to lose some of its mojo, but as soon as it broke below 1.36, it turned back around and moved back above that level. It did the same thing last week and in weeks before. As it moved back down against the Euro, stocks recovered, oil went higher, gold went higher, and there was a general recovery across the market. It got extra speed until the afternoon and rallied up to the close. That put all of the indices positive by the end of the day. They were not huge gains, but it was not too bad. 0.7% NASDAQ, 0.8% Dow, 0.5 SP500. Small caps were leading with almost 0.9% of a gain. Notable laggards were semiconductors. They were down early and managed to rally back and put in a gain for the session, but they were definitely bringing up the rear. That is something to watch given they were helping lead the way out of the mess that the market had put itself in. Overall, it was not a bad session because SP500 made the break up through the 1100-1105 range. It still has work to do. There are many intraday peaks in the roughly 1115 range that it has to clear. It made a big move in clearing the October peak and this initial range in the November and December consolidation.
You might have been wondering what all the after-hours nonsense was about on the SPY chart. DELL announced decent earnings, although it was not a blowout. They were better than most people expected for an aging industry, but it was not DELL. The Federal Reserve as Bernanke indicated in a speech over a week ago raised the discount rate 25BP, up 20.75%. That is the rate that banks charge one another for their short-term loans. In other words, if a bank needs to get cash to cover its reserve requirements (or for whatever reason), it can go to another bank and pay the discount rate for the loan. What the Fed is trying to do is wean the banks off coming to the Federal Reserve for their short-term liquidity requirements and go back to the open market where they should be getting their money. The discount rate does not have any impact on the Fed funds rate and what the Fed does, but it was a first step in taking back the stimulus. The discount rate is always done first, and that is kind of the shot across the bow to the markets and the world, saying we are going to start moving into the direction of taking back the stimulus. The discount rate shows they are already taking those steps; it is not just talk anymore. As seen in the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, it is not just a matter of taking the stimulus back. It is when they will do it and the speed at which the Fed moves. Some, such as Hoenig, would prefer to see the Fed move more rapidly. Maybe this is something done to appease him and those feeling uncomfortable with rising prices as we saw in the PPI on Thursday.
OTHER MARKETS
Dollar. The dollar was up early, but it came back by the end of the session to close flat. It was flat against the Euro (1.3612 versus 1.3610 Wednesday) as well as flat on the DXY0. The dollar stagnated on the session, but it was stronger again after hours. When the US indicates it will raise interest rates, that always strengthens our currency. It makes the time instruments and money funds more valuable because rates are (in theory) moving higher, and you will be able to obtain more interest payment for lending your money. The dollar was up, but we will see if it can break out of this range on Friday. This is a range that stalled out on this recovery, and it is in the middle of a consolidation level from last summer that spanned June and early July. In addition, there is other trash along the way in December of 2008 and back in October and September as well. It is consolidating along that resistance point and holding its gains. That is exactly what a stock or index will do before it makes the next move. With this move by the Federal Reserve, it looks like that next move will be to the upside.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Gold. Gold was up as well, but modestly. I want more of a test from gold. This three-point trendline is a good one. It broke through it, tested on Wednesday, and then Thursday it tested again and bounced. I would have liked to see it slide another day or two and start back up, but we may not get the chance and will have to move in. We will have to see how it plays out now that the Fed has made its move. This should be a negative impetus to move into gold because (again, in theory) raising interest rates will help curb inflation and thus make gold less alluring as an inflation hedge. If it continues higher, this is a good trend break we can try to play with initial resistance at 1150, but on up to the prior peak.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Oil. Oil has held up remarkably well even though the dollar is still holding gains near the top of the range it has been trading in over the past couple of weeks after a strong move higher. You can see that oil closed higher ($79, +1.79). It is trading in the range and moving back toward the prior peaks in that range. It has room to run. PPI was in large part influenced by the rising price of oil. If you take out crude, it fell to 0.3%. Oil played a big roll, but as oil rises, our prices rise. That is why the Fed is getting interested in curbing inflation down the road. The interesting aspect of this rally will be whether oil will makes a break higher or break down once it gets back up in the $82.00 range.
It used to be a game were you played the breakout. Indeed, you still do play the breakout because if they are valid, you can move in. Now, you usually see a test. Oil made the breakout in January. It cleared the October peak and looked violent in doing so and then it came back for an easy test. That was no big deal, but then it surged back up and was thrown back down. That was a clue that this was not going to hold. It broke lower, closing below the prior peak, and then it was downhill from there. It was a false breakout. Down here, it looked like oil was trying to sell off. It had two big days down, but it reversed intraday when it came down to the prior close. That was not the classic undercut at that low and then reversal, but you get the idea of how it worked and is working lately. That is what makes the test at $82.00 (and up to $83-84.00 where it reached last time in January) even more important.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
Bonds. Bonds struggled again. The 10 year closed up (3.80% versus 3.74% Wednesday). That means bonds sold, and their interest rates moved higher. The 2 year closed at 0.8 7%. There was a record of just over a month ago, with respect to the spread between the 2 and 10 year. There is now a new record on the spread between the 10 year and 2 year. The 10 is trying to move up, The Fed is trying to hold the lower rates down, but now that the Fed is bumping the discount rate higher, we should see the short-end rally as well. There is a very steep yield curve, but the problem is if they become detached (such as the 10 year being dominated by market forces while the 2 year is dominated by the Fed trying to artificially hold rates lower). Then they become disassociated and the move of one does not mean anything with respect to the other. That makes sense: one is controlled by the government and one by the market. That is dangerous because they can explode in opposite directions, and the 10 year could spike higher in a big inflation run. I am sure it is one of the reasons why the Fed says they have to start raising rates. The 10 year wants to go up and rates all over the place want to go up but they are trying to hold them down. That typically leads to problems. Under Greenspan (and all Federal Reserve chairs), they talk about the imbalances created in the marketplace and financial markets in particular. Yet, the fact that the Fed is setting rates contra to market forces is what creates the imbalances. It is like building a dam on a river when it wants to flow downhill. You are stopping in and force builds behind the dam. The dam has to be strong enough to hold it. The problem with the Fed, by definition of its job, is it will create the very imbalances it says it trying to alleviate or avoid creating. When they meddle with the markets like this and do not fully understand them (The Fed is famous for thinking it is smarter than the markets), then we get problems. Right now, the Fed realizes it has a problem with rates trying to run higher. It needs to raise rates because if they become detached, then the 10 year and the 30 year take off to the upside. That puts pressure on our Treasuries because then they do not relate to reality or relate even less than they normally do and their worth declines.
This is a key level for bonds. They have been running in the 3.6-3.78 range, similar to the dollar versus the Euro. That is where they have been holding. They have sold down to this point, and that means interest rates have rallied higher. Bonds reversed off their lows today, just as they did in mid-to-late December and in mid-November as well. If it breaks, yields will jump higher and we will see a quick move higher in the 10 year. It might do that now that the Fed has raised the discount rate. That is an indication it will take steps with the Fed funds rate in the somewhat-near future.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tip.jpeg
TECHNICAL
INTERNALS
Breadth. Breadth was 1.45:1 on NASDAQ and 2.2:1 on the NYSE. Not very strong as we have seen in the other moves of late, but given that the market reversed and closed higher, it was not bad.
Volume. Volume was a disappointment. It was down and basically flat on NASDAQ at 1.99B. It was also down modestly (almost 6%) on the NYSE to 961M shares. There was less-than-impressive volume as the market has moved higher and as the SP500 move through the October peak.
CHARTS
SP500. SP500 did break through 1105, closing at roughly 1106. That takes it over the October peak but still keeps it in the November-December range. It is still in need of breaking through 1115-1117 to mean a lot. It is significant in the fact that it shot down this level and is taking out the lower peak it made in early February. It is following NASDAQ and the other indices higher, which is what you would expect it to do. It looks like it can make this test to the prior peak and maybe go up to 1128 or so at the bottom of the range. We will have to see what happens in the wake of the Fed raising the discount rate.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ was inspiring in that it continued its move, breaking over 2205, even though volume remains subdued and below average. It could easily rally up to the 2275-ish range that is the bottom of the January peak/consolidation. It could easily take the other indices up with it. It did not look like it would have the energy to do that, but it has been steadily moving higher. It likes like there will be a test of this area, which is the lick log for the entire market. After this kind of correction, following a strong run, there will be a test that often fails. That will be the key point for the move: Does it fail and consolidate a little bit lower and move higher, or will it go into a more significant consolidation after such a long run off the bottom in March of 2008?
SP600. The small caps were also performing as well. They were continuing the move over their October peak, and they are almost at the bottom of the January consolidation right now. They closed at 334, and when they get to 335-336, they are touching the intraday lows. It might be a preview for the other indices as the small caps move up and bump this level. The big "if" as we look at SOX is whether this hike in the discount rate will upset it and truncate their drive toward that prior high. If they were going to fail when they got to that point, the fact that some of these indices NASDAQ and the SP600 are almost there could be the kind of news that would have the sellers avoiding the Christmas rush and getting out now. We will have to see how that plays out.
SOX. The SOX struggled on Wednesday and Thursday. It was lower, but it made a comeback and managed to hold the break over that early-December consolidation level. While it was not a pair of strong days for the semiconductors, they did what they had to do after a good run higher, holding over a key support level. They have been lagging and, if they turn down, they tend to lead the moves. While they were lagging on the upside, maybe they were indicating on Thursday that they were ready to lead back to the downside. We will just have to see how it plays out. They are in mid-range, and they bounced up almost 50% of recovery as to what they gained. When you look at that, they are ripe for at least a pullback or consolidation before continuing higher.
LEADERSHIP
Energy. APC has gone crazy, hitting a new rally high. It has a reverse head and shoulders and a breakout. A nice play would be to play it off the breakout when it comes back to test that level. CVX is another one to always watch. It has set up something of a double bottom, testing right now and starting back up on volume. It has room to run. It would be more of a trade because there is a significant resistance point.
Technology. RIMM is coming back to life after the gap down in September. It based, it struggled, and it gapped higher. It formed a base, we picked it up, and it moved sharply higher. It came back to test, and we picked up more of it as it is starting to break higher once more. GOOG looks solid as well. While the action on Wednesday worried me as it came down after that good volume move up on Tuesday it held and bounced higher on rising trade on Thursday. It still looks like it has life in it. We are still keeping our stop relatively close, but I like what I see with the rounded action. It shows the volume pushing up and trying to strain it to a break higher. We will see if it happens. It is a pretty picture, but pretty pictures do not mean anything until they put money in your pocket.
Retail. Home builders are doing well. HD just took off like a shot. Some areas have taken off, gapping higher, and then continuing to gap and run. LOW formed a bottom, was testing the prior lows, and then it gapped three times. It is showing serious gaps to the upside, and it is difficult to play those without some kind of test back. You can see a great picture and have a great setup, and then the gaps come along and you kick yourself for not chasing them. When you chase them, however, most of the time they come right back on you. You should wait until you have a better set up. The restaurants are still going okay after shaking off BWLD last week. PNRA is holding up. PFCB has been up and down, but it posted a good move on Thursday. Some of the stocks are going crazy PCLN gapped higher on strong earnings. NFLX is also doing well, finally talking off like I thought it would after this gap. It is doing what you would expect it to do on a breakaway gap, i.e. one that surges on strong volume past a resistance point, holds is gap or most of it, and then continues back up. That is exactly what you look for. Indeed after PCLN consolidates, if it can hold the move over the 230 level and consolidates, we would look to pick up more shares as it does the same thing that NFLX did. It is coming back, consolidates a little and then starts to move up that is when we would start to move back in. SHLD is doing quite well. It came off a gap fill and then bounced off that level. A test here is another opportunity to move in, and it is testing. If it comes back down around the 18 day EMA for a day or two, and then early next week starts back up, you have room to ride it up to 105. That is a nice option run.
Financial. Financials were not impressive. JPM was up barely. GS was down. WFC held steady. There was not a lot of excitement and that is why, even though SP500 moved up, it did not surge higher.
Semiconductors. We were saying how SOX itself might pose a problem as it was trying to start lagging already as it bumped at the early-December consolidation level. There are interesting patterns out there. BRCM is moving in a big range. If it stalls out here, MACD might undercut or form a lower peak than the December peak and create a divergent top. If it rallies further up to this prior peak, we would look to play it to the downside and maybe catch a roll back lower. That seems counterintuitive right now with the market moving up, but you have to look ahead to see what is setting up. MRVL is in the same area as BRCM. It made a strong move. There is the A,B and C. The question is whether it makes a D point. The D point would bring it back down around the 17-16.5 level, and we could play that. You can play the downside move even though it is setting up an ABCD pattern because even if it turns out to be a bullish play, you have a nice, long run. You have one to three (maybe more) dollars to the downside on a $20 stock. That will give you a good put play to the downside. If it gets down to this level and holds near 17-16.50, then you take your gain, or start taking some off the table. If it starts back up, you have the ABCD pattern in place and can play it accordingly back to the upside. It is like a chess game. You are looking down the road. Anything can change, but you are watching out for it. VSEA had something of a bearish look to it. You can see it is trying to set up a head and shoulders pattern, but you never really know when a head and shoulders will set up. There is another feature I was looking at. It had this run, but it rolled over at the top and sold off sharply. It bounced, made a lower low, and bounced again making a higher peak. This is called a downside ABCD pattern. This strong corrective move shows it did damage to the stock. When coupled with the more bearish head and shoulders look, you could get a downside play on VSEA. There are three points roughly to the bottom of the pattern, so that could give a decent move. I would like to see it come down more to the 26 level where this consolidation from last summer is. That would give you an excellent move. I will keep watching that, of course.
Leadership is somewhat scattered. It is doing its work. It is putting in bases in some cases, and in other cases is running crazy to the upside out of no real base at all. It shows that money is still being put to work in the market, but it is going to places that the big money feels it needs to be put. You just have to be in the right stocks and right areas as it takes off or as it comes back. That is why I want to look down the road a few moves just to see where the money is coming in and if any of the big money is showing its hand as to where it wants to support or sell stocks.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 20.63; -1.09
VXN: 20.65; -0.75
VXO: 19.63; -1.56
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.8; -0.12
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 34.1%. Sharp decline in bulls as the impact of the prior 4 week decline finally hit. Of course it hit just as the market bounced this past week. Still, it is now below the 35% level, down from 38.9%, and that is considered bullish for the market overall. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls continue to run, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Getting close to the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 26.1%. A commensurate rise in bears, jumping from 22.2%. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market, so still a ways off even though bulls are falling to a bullish level. Continuing the rise from 16%ish on the lows this leg where it held for several weeks. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +15.42 points (+0.69%) to close at 2241.71
Volume: 1.992B (-0.29%)
Up Volume: 1.39B (+42.432M)
Down Volume: 634.72M (-48.497M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.45 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.46 to 1
New Highs: 102 (-20)
New Lows: 13 (-3)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +7.24 points (+0.66%) to close at 1106.75
NYSE Volume: 961.003M (-5.82%)
Up Volume: 711.903M (+32.887M)
Down Volume: 237.641M (-93.141M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.21 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.03 to 1
New Highs: 105 (+19)
New Lows: 12 (-4)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +15.42 points (+0.69%) to close at 2241.71
Volume DJ30: 185M shares Tuesday versus 193M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
FRIDAY
The question for Friday is how the market and investors will handle the Fed raising the discount rate and how they feel about it right before the weekend. Stocks have run higher. They have been up over a week, and it a good time to dump some shares for those who want to sell. They were doing it after hours on Thursday. We will see how this plays on SP500, as it just cracked 1105 and is in the teeth of the November-December consolidation. It will have pressure on it to sell back. Even NASDAQ will be under pressure because it has had such a strong run on light volume. It broke through this level, but it will have pressure on it because this is starting to exert gravity on it. It will be pushing down on the techs, and they could easily come back to test the 2205 level. That will be a critical test for it on the way back down. Obviously, that was a key level to break, and we will see just how the low volume move upside can handle some selling that is worried about the Fed raising rates and potentially taking the punchbowl away from the market and this long rally it has had. That is tempered with the fact that Bernanke does not want to pull a Japan, raise rates prematurely, and cut off at the knees any nascent recovery before it gets the chance to have the private sector take hold and get off the government teat (so to speak).
Friday will open a bit lower. I do not like to buy on Friday, and this might be one where we let the action work out. We have great plays, and we have good stop points on them. We have some other plays we are looking to buy into, and maybe we will get something out of it. It may show a move we cannot resist. The problem is, the Fed has stepped in, and that will take some time to reverberate through the market. After some initial selling, there may not be a lot of action because a bunch of the players will want to sit tight and see what happens next week. There would be a propensity to take some profits off the table anyway, given that the market has run very well over the past week and then some. With the weekend coming up, they would want to lock in some gains. The Fed will give them the reason to do that early on. We will see some downside. We will see how NASDAQ holds at the 2205 level. We will see how the SP500 does at its 1100 level as it comes back to test that and the October peak. We will have to see how much strength there is with the financials not participating in the run today and helping out. If they start selling, they will take away from the SP500's strength. We have some downside plays in hand; we have some upside plays in hand. Friday we might take it easy and let things work through the system into early next week. I do not want to get too happy with the "buy" button until we see how the Fed action shakes out. Have a great evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2241.71
Resistance:
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2326.28 is the January high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2453 is the August 2008 peak
Support:
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2205 is the November 2009 peak
The 50 day EMA at 2205
2191 is the October 2009 peak
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2143 is the October 2009 range low
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
2060 is the August peak
2048 is the early October 2009 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 2040
2015 from an early August 2008 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 1106.75
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 1098
1101 is the October 2009 high
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1150 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
Support:
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The August peak at 1040
The 200 day SMA at 1027
The early October 2009 closing low at 1025
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
Dow: Closed at 10,392.90
Resistance:
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
Support:
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 50 day EMA at 10,274
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 9562
9430 is the early October low
9387 is the mid-October peak
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
February 16 - Tuesday
Empire Manufacturing, February (08:30): 24.91 actual versus 18.00 expected, 15.92 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, December (09:00): $63.3B actual versus $50.0B expected, $126.4B prior (revised from $126.8B)
February 17 - Wednesday
Housing Starts, January (08:30): 591K actual versus 580K expected, 575K prior (revised from 557K)
Building Permits, January (08:30): 621K actual versus 620K expected, 653K prior
Export Prices ex-ag., January (08:30): 0.7% actual versus 0.5% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, January (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Industrial Production, January (09:15): 0.9% actual versus 0.7% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.6%)
Capacity Utilization, January (09:15): 72.6% actual versus 72.6% expected, 71.9% prior (revised from 72.0%)
Treasury Budget, January (14:00): -$42.6B actual versus -$46.0B expected, -$91.9B prior
Minutes of FOMC Meet, 1/28 (14:00)
February 18 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 02/13 (08:30): 473K actual versus 438K expected, 442K prior (revised from 440K)
Continuing Claims, 02/6 (08:30): 4563K actual versus 4500K expected, 4563K prior (revised from 4538K)
PPI, January (08:30): 1.4% actual versus 0.8% expected, 0.4% prior
Core PPI, January (08:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Leading Indicators, January (10:00): 0.3% actual versus 0.5% expected, 1.2% prior (revised from 1.1%)
Philadelphia Fed, February (10:00): 17.6 actual versus 17.0 expected, 15.2 prior
Crude Inventories, 2/12 (11:00): 3.08M actual versus 2.42M prior
February 19 - Friday
CPI, January (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior
Core CPI, January (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
End part 1 of 3
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