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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. We hope you enjoy this new addition.
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Upside:
New Pre-Announcement Play:
Play Date: 02/18/2010
RIG (Transocean--$83.32; -0.81; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
After Hours: $82.53
EARNINGS: 02/24/2010
STATUS: Rolling. RIG is rigging up for a run higher in its range, ragged as it may be. RIG rallied higher into September, clearing the June peak that topped the initial run off the late 2008 low. That moved RIG into a new range and it has traded up and down since. The past three weeks it has come down to test the bottom of the range, tapping low intraday and then bursting back up to close: the buyers are showing their hand at this key level. Now RIG has not surged higher as much of the energy sector has so it is somewhat suspect, but we also know that the market moves in waves, and the drillers have lagged this move. RIG is setting up and on a solid break higher we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/RIG.wmv
Volume: 5.905M Avg Volume: 4.51M
BUY POINT: $84.55 Volume=5.5M Target=$93.88 Stop=$81.44
POSITION: RIG 10E80.00 - May $80c (62 delta) &/or Stock
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 02/18/2010
AET (Aetna--$29.74; +0.13; optionable): Healthcare Plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aet.html
After Hours: $29.74
EARNINGS: 04/29/2010
STATUS: AET has come back to support at the rising 200 day SMA and former price peaks and lows, setting up a solid foundation to bounce higher. You can see the buyers tipped their hand with the week of intraday taps lower at support followed by strong rebounds to close. Wednesday AET broke higher. Thursday it gapped lower but recovered nicely, refusing to give up its gains. As it continues higher we are ready to move in for a run back up to the prior high for a nice gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/AET.wmv
Volume: 4.763M Avg Volume: 6.354M
BUY POINT: $29.94 Volume=8.2M Target=$34.91 Stop=$27.84
POSITION: AET 10G29.00 - July $29c (59 delta) &/or Stock
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/18/2010
ATI (Allegheny Technologies--$44.53; +0.50; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ati.html
After Hours: $44.03
EARNINGS: 04/28/2010
STATUS: ABCD. A pattern we really like is giving us a chance to enter. ATI set up the move with that very strong December to early January run. After that move it needed the rest and this ABCD stair-step lower gave it that rest for the next move higher. It formed the D point in early February, moved laterally, then gapped higher Tuesday. It is working laterally but holding its gain; may come back some more, may not. All we want to see is ATI continue to hold its gains and then break higher. It can do that tomorrow and that will be fine with us, although it is Friday and not our favorite buying day. Nice setup and if gives the green light, we move in for a run back up to the prior high as our initial target.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ATI.wmv
Volume: 1.824M Avg Volume: 2.173M
BUY POINT: $44.84 Volume=3M Target=$51.91 Stop=$41.97
POSITION: ATI 10G42.00 - July $42c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/18/2010
NLST (Netlist, Inc.--$4.06; -0.14; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nlst.html
After Hours: $3.89
EARNINGS: 03/22/2010
STATUS: Something of an ABCD pattern has set up after the explosion higher in November. It has stair-stepped back down, moved laterally last week, then jumped higher Tuesday. Nice, easy fade to test, and now all we need is a good surge back up to give us the buy for a ride back up near the prior peak as our initial target.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NLST.wmv
Volume: 711.933K Avg Volume: 3.473M
BUY POINT: $4.26 Volume=3.5M Target=$6.45 Stop=$3.96
POSITION: NLST 10E2.50 - May $2.50c (92 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/16/2010
ATW (Atwood Oceanics--$33.93; -0.02; optionable): Offshore drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atw.html
After Hours: $33.80
EARNINGS: 02/03/2010
STATUS: Rolling. RIG or ATW? Whichever goes first is fine with us as both are set to rally higher in their ranges. To recap: Taking another look at ATW as it consolidates laterally just below its prior range. ATW rolled up and down from October through January, then tried to break higher to start February for another roll upside, but it stalled and fell through the bottom of the range. It did not implode, however, holding at the bottom of the September consolidation. It looks as if it broke down from the range, but it has held and is trying to break back inside. If it can do it ATW has shown something of a false breakdown and likely rolls nicely back up in the trading range.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ATW.wmv
Volume: 703.947K Avg Volume: 991.714K
BUY POINT: $34.21 Volume=1.3M Target=$39.45 Stop=$32.03
POSITION: ATW 10F30.00 - June $30c (70 delta) &/or Stock
Leader Play:
Play Date: 02/17/2010
IOC (Interoil Corp.--$68.80; +0.45; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ioc.html
After Hours: $67.03
EARNINGS: 2/05/2010
STATUS: ABCD. Nice, nice setup as IOC tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and then rebounded for a gain. Low volume, not a bad thing at all. Nice setup and when IOC makes the move we move in. To recap: IOC set up this pattern with the November to January run, then stair-stepping down and bottoming at the early December gap up point. Good fill and that bounced IOC upside, Monday the stock gapped through the 50 day EMA. Tuesday it faded modestly on light trade, testing the move. May come back a bit more toward the 50 day (66.90) before heading back upside; whether from the Thursday close or after a test we are looking to move in as IOC continues the break higher.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/IOC.wmv
Volume: 595.249K Avg Volume: 1.344M
BUY POINT: $69.04 Volume=1.6M Target=$82.44 Stop=$65.89
POSITION: IOC 10F70.00 - June $70c (47 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 02/17/2010
FWLT (Foster Wheeler--$27.88; +0.32; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fwlt.html
After Hours: $27.50
EARNINGS: 02/25/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. Recovered from a gap lower Thursday, but low volume and FWLT is still below the bottom of the range and looking for FWLT to roll over after testing the bottom of the range. To recap: After trading in a range from September to January, FWLT broke down after what looked to be an ordinary test to the bottom of the range. Instead it wheeled over in early February and sliced through the bottom of the range at 28 as well as the 200 day SMA (28.24). Decent rebound the past week, but Wednesday FWLT gapped higher only to hit the price resistance and the 200 day SMA and rolling over to negative. If it continues we look to move in and ride it to the initial target for a 50%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/FWLT.wmv
Volume: 1.679M Avg Volume: 2.302M
BUY POINT: $27.37 Volume=3M Target=$24.28 Stop=$28.69
POSITION: FWLT 10Q28.00 - May $28p (-49 delta)
Play Date: 02/17/2010
RL (Ralph Lauren--$80.57; +0.27; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rl.html
After Hours: $80.06
EARNINGS: 02/03/2010
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Rallied up to the 50 day EMA once more, closing just below that level. Volume, however, was very low as RL tests that gap lower. Still looks ready to turn back down and continue the selling. To recap: After a solid, long trend higher up the 50 day EMA (80.70), RL gapped lower in early February on its earnings. It broke below a support level at 80 and fell to 75. It reversed there and recovered the past 7 sessions, making its way back to the 50 day EMA. Low volume on that move as RL tapped the 50 day EMA on the Wednesday peak. Looking to move in as RL turns back down and holds the move into the close. A move to our initial target lands a 53%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/RL.wmv
Volume: 562.499K Avg Volume: 1.15M
BUY POINT: $79.44 Volume=1.4M Target=$75.05 Stop=$80.98
POSITION: RL 10P80.00 - Apr. $80p (-45 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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