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Begin Part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
6-25-02
Consumer confidence, June (10:00): 106.4 actual versus 106 expected and 110.3 prior (revosed form 109.8).
Existing home sales, May (10:00): -0.3% (5.75M actual) versus 5.63M expected and 5.79 prior.
FOMC meeting day 1
6-26-02
Durable goods orders, May (8:30): +0.6% actual verus +0.5% expected and +0.4% prior (revised from +0.8%).
New home sales, May (10:00): +8.1% (1.028M) actual versus 915K expected and 951K prior (revised from 915K).
FOMC announcement (2:15): No changes. Final demand growth has 'moderated.'
6-27-02
Initial Claims, 06/22 (08:30):388K actual versus 390K expected and 398K prior (revised from 393K)
GDP-Final, Q1 (08:30):6.1% actual versus 5.6% expected and 6.1% prior (revised from 5.6%)
Chain Deflator-Final, Q1 (08:30):1.2% actual versus 1.0% expected and 1.0% prior.
Help-Wanted Index, May (10:00):45 actual versus NA expected and 47 prior.
FOMC Minutes, 5/7 (14:00)
6-28-02
Personal Income, May (8:30): 0.3% expected versus 0.3% prior.
Persona spending, May (8:30): 0.0% expected versus 0.5% prior.
Michigan sentiment, revised , June (8:45): 90.8 expected versus 90.8 prior.
Chicago PMI, June (10:00): 58.5 expected verus 60.8 prior.
TEAM TRADES
ERTS: In the software sector, but its pattern is one of accumulation, not distribution. It attempted a breakout last week, but it did not have the volume. We waited. It sold to the 50 day MVA, still in the pattern, and rebounded a bit Wednesday. Today it was up and firing. In a volatile session we watched the stock along with many others all session. Toward the close it had tailed off with the market but it held up very well. Then with about ten minutes left in the session it started to rally back. We had been watching volume and it was solid. We were just watching to see if the stock would respond at the close. It started higher and we decided it was time to enter. The options we were looking at had a 20 cent spread. The market has done one thing, it has narrowed the spread in options. The spread was 9.50 by 9.70; with that spread there was no need to really try to shave it, so we put in a limit at the ask. The stock was moving, the volume was good, so we wanted the position. We were not going to haggle over a nickle or a dime. The trade was uneventful. The narrower spread tempts us less to try and shave fractions, and that usually means pretty quick fills. A quick fill as the stock stalled and then moved up sharply. The options closed at 9.90 by 10. Good volume, good price move, good breakout. Now we see if it can give us the gain and thus the profit.
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: IGEN (again); PTSI; EXAS; LBIX; TSN
Thursday plays:
CNI: Moving up toward a breakout but not there yet.
NWRE: Breakout!
EME: Tight doji at the 50 day MVA.
FDP: Not good at all; falling through the 50 day MVA on above average volume.
Best Plays:
1) CNTE: Nice base from a newer issue.
2) YCC: Finally giving us a chance to get in.
3) NVLS: Could give a quick tank.
4) Continuing stocks shaping up: HLYW; CHGO
New Plays
Upside:
CNTE (Centene Corp.--$29.85; +2.1; no options): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnte.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. A new issue in December, CNTE is going through its first real base, and Thursday started a breakout move on above average, breakout volume. Accumulation weeks in the base outnumber distribution weeks 4 to 1, very solid accumulation. New issues provide some of the best ways to make great money once they go through their first base.
Volume: 230.5K Avg Volume: 128K
BUY POINT: $30.2 Volume=192K Target=$36.25 Stop=$28.09
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cnte.html
YCC (Yankee Candle--$26.92; +0.47; optionable): Candles
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/ycc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. YCC went through its first basing sessions last year and the first part of this year. It blasted out of this last base in early June on massive volume. It has spent the last two weeks consolidating in a flat base and is now just above the 10 day MVA (26.31). Accumulation has been excellent, and of course relative strength is strong. Wednesday it showed a doji that held the 10 day MVA. Thursday it started higher. All it needs now is some more volume on another solid move up.
Volume: 212.8K Avg Volume: 393.181K
BUY POINT: $27.30 Volume=500K Target=$32.75 Stop=$25
POSITION: YCC JX - Oct. $22.50 call (85 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ycc.html
Downside
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$34.77; +1.86; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
STATUS: Put. Has been riding down the 10 day MVA, tanking Wednesday but then reversing and rallying, a move that continued Thursday on lighter though still above average volume. It crossed the 10 day MVA (34.66) in the process. It may rally on up to the 18 day MVA (36.69), but we look for the move to end at that point.
Volume: 11.327M Avg Volume: 9.119M
BUY POINT: After a test of 36.50, 35.95. Breakdown: $34.95. Volume=12M Target=$29.75 Stop=$38
POSITION: NLQ TH - Aug. $40 put (-63 delta) or NLQ TI - Aug. $45 put (-77 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvls.html
PORTFOLIOS: Due to subscriber requests, we are merging the portfolios into one Member Portfolio controlled by the subscribers with periodic surveys on the stocks desired. We had a big response over the weekend and will be putting the new Member Portfolio together soon. If you have not done so, get your choices in now.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
NOC (127.82; +5.57): Huge bounce off of the 50 day MVA on rising, above average volume. NOC is at a point where we can move back in with some positions.
Putting together a great play list for the Member Portfolio. Trying to get stocks that are good long term investments as well as some good volatile stocks that are good trading stocks.
Continuing plays:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABCW 06/20 A Wedge 22.36 -0.47 23.35 27.55 40K 47K 21.65
Back down in the wedge, holding at the 50 day MVA on rising volume. Looks as if it is getting ready.
ACN 05/11 Put 18.82 +0.07 19.7 15.65 968K 3.3M 21.30
Weak bounce up and showing a doji on no volume.
AVY 06/22 Put 62.94 -0.59 63.49 59 791K 399K 66
Falling on some strong volume.
AXP 05/08 cup hdl 37.08 +1.41 43.53 52 5.8M 4.8M 40.48
Bouncing up off of the 200 day MVA.
BLI 06/11 Test BO 19.4 +0.78 18.5 22 1.2M 639K 17.30
Retail continues to look better, and BLI broke to a new high today.
BLL 06/06 Put 41.25 -0.32 41.54 38 546K 484K 44
A doji below the 18 day MVA.
BWA 06/08 Put 56.4 -0.52 59.99 55 395K 346K 63
Could not hold the gain on rising volume. Looks as it if may hit the target.
BZH 06/18 Put 79.7 -0.3 75.95 72 681K 522K 81
Tested the 50 day MVA and turned back down. Volume was lower. Looks ready to fall.
BZH 06/03 Put 79.7 -0.3 74.45 70.45 681K 522K 77
CBSH 06/18 BO 44.19 +0.91 46.67 56 193K 124K 43.85
Recovered but will find trouble at 44.50 at the 50 day MVA.
CEPH 06/25 Put 44.35 +1.09 43.2 38 2.7M 2.1M 49.50
Weak rally attempt and stalling at 45.
CHGO 05/28 Test 18 9.2 +0.35 7.75 10 212K 287K 7.21
Moving up again on some stronger volume.
CHGO 05/09 Test 50 9.2 +0.35 7.3 10 212K 287K 7.02
CLF 05/15 Test BO 26.99 -0.16 28.2 34 47K 81K 26.90
Running out of steam here below the simple 50 day MVA.
CNI 06/26 cup hdl 52.5 +0.55 52.9 63.25 449K 421K 49.55
Moved higher but needs more volume to muster a breakout.
CNTE 06/27 cup hdl 29.85 +2.1 30.2 36.25 230K 128K 28.09
COH 06/03 Put 55.1 +1.9 49.65 45 636K 504K 52
Back over the 50 day MVA but on low volume.
CTSH 06/06 Put 51.61 +1.72 44.65 40.25 214K 172K 47.25
It was time to exit.
DESI 05/29 Test 18 6.62 -0.07 7.25 11 18K 133K 6.74
Testing the 50 day MVA on very, very low volume. Not bad.
DGX 01/31 cup hdl 84.1 -1.52 68.9 100 1.3M 985K 84
Looks ready to fall back as volume rose on a stall below the 50 day MVA.
DLTR 05/09 Flat 37.81 0 38.95 33 1.2M 1.2M 36.22
Still testing the 50 day MVA.
DROOY 05/21 A Wedge 4.3 -0.13 4.85 7 3.3M 4.5M 4.30
Gold suffers when the market rallies. Showing a doji just below the 50 day MVA on very low volume.
ELK 06/01 DB hdl 28.16 +0.68 27.46 34.96 102K 100K 24.95
Showing some good life here. Now just needs some more volume.
ENC 05/06 Rv H&S 8.5 -0.25 7.3 9.5 42K 35K 6.79
Testing the 18 day MVA and rebounding. Good test.
EXAS 06/15 cup hdl 16.58 +1.83 15.3 18.5 956K 100K 12
Blasting off on stronger volume (huge volume).
FDP 06/26 Test 18 24.91 -1.98 27.1 32.5 690K 251K 25.25
Not the move we wanted, tanking to the 50 day MVA on heavy volume.
FHCC 06/11 cup hdl 27.53 +0.33 29.85 36 706K 950K 27.76
Not looking good. Exit time as stalling at the 50 day MVA.
FORG 06/15 Test BO 5.02 +0.12 5.15 6.85 121K 146K 4.20
Good test above the 18 day MVA.
FRX 06/10 Put 71.03 +0.62 72.45 68 1.2M 1.3M 75
Weak move to test the 50 day MVA.
GILD 06/15 Put 32.48 -0.22 32.49 28.25 3.9M 3.5M 34.50
Hit second target.
HARB 06/22 BO 24.04 +0.45 24.11 29 74K 44K 21.75
Doji at the breakout point. Still hanging on but may have to test lower and try the breakout again.
HLT 05/06 Put 13.56 +0.06 14.3 12 2M 1.9M 15.80
Just won't fall. Time to exit.
HLYW 05/29 Test 18 20.4 +0.01 19.25 27 659K 716K 17.9
Looks ready; volume at average or above the past week.
HOTT 06/12 Test BO 26.24 +0.24 27.05 32 429K 711K 24.64
Good bounce up off the 50 day MVA, but stalling at the 18 day MVA. Needs more volume on this move.
HOTT 05/29 Test BO 26.24 +0.24 26.5 32 429K 711K 24.64
IMH 03/26 A Wedge 13.1 +0.14 8.95 11.2 782K 411K 9.50
Holding at 13. Holding up well.
KKD 06/24 Put 31.81 -0.47 33.75 30 1M 521K 36
Bounced, but rolled back over with weaker volume. Looking for next target at 30 as already took some profits.
KMI 06/19 Put 38.6 -0.47 40.75 37 1.6M 670K 43.25
Tanked lower and rebounded on higher volume, but still looks ready to fall further.
LBIX 05/06 Flat 3.1 +0.3 1.95 3.5 304K 111K 1.58
Continues to explode higher. I know some of you are making a nice sum on this one.
LLL 06/10 Put 54.9 +3.55 59.1 54 3.1M 1.4M 62.50
Slammed the target and rebounded but on lower volume. Might stall at 55 to 56.
LTR 06/15 Put 54.55 +0.12 54.95 50.25 773K 475K 57
Stalling below the 10 day MVA.
MBAY 06/25 Dbl btm 4.61 -0.19 5.25 8 201K 161K 4.45
Holding at the 50 day MVA.
NCC 04/30 cup hdl 32.66 +0.41 31.42 37.25 2M 1.1M 29.75
Moving up off of the 50 day MVA on some huge volume.
NCOG 06/22 Put 22.14 +0.18 21.3 18.04 199K 213K 24
Ready to stall at the 200 day MVA with lower volume.
NVLS 06/27 Put 34.77 +1.86 34.95 29.75 11M 9.1M 38
NWRE 06/26 cup hdl 11.7 +1.21 11.2 13.55 760K 142K 10.35
Blasting off on whopping volume.
ORB 06/04 cup hdl 7.55 +0.45 8.02 11.94 306K 331K 7.25
Nice recovery but needs more volume.
PEET 06/18 A Wedge 18.89 +0.51 18.35 22 218K 227K 16.75
Rallying higher on some better volume.
PTSI 06/24 Flat 26.85 +0.98 26.65 31.98 84K 57K 24.20
A good move right at the breakout on some good volume. Looking for more here.
RE 06/11 Put 56.06 -1.79 58.55 54 782K 558K 63
Tanking on some massive volume.
RITA 05/28 Cup 9.72 -0.13 10.1 13.9 250K 98K 9.39
Tried to make the move on some massive volume, but failed, showing a doji. Could still do it.
SAM 06/12 cup hdl 15.99 +0.03 16.85 20.5 43K 36K 15.45
SIE 06/11 Test 18 22.03 +0.68 21.1 25.45 440K 242K 19.62
Moving up on some very solid volume.
SIE 06/11 Test 18 22.03 +0.68 20 24.25 440K 242K 18
SNIC 05/30 A Wedge 7.79 -0.21 8.2 11 314K 311K 6.95
Testing the 50 day MVA again but volume was lower. Needs to bounce soon or exit.
SNS 04/12 Test BO 14.75 +0.36 14.8 18 88K 106K 13.76
Good recovery over the 50 day MVA but on very low volume.
SNS 04/10 Dbl btm 14.75 +0.36 14.65 18 88K 106K 13.76
SRCL 06/22 Test BO 35.76 +0.42 38.5 45 502K 324K 35.8
Holding the 50 day MVA.
STT 05/20 Put 44.4 +1.77 47.35 42.5 2M 1.5M 51.50
Bounced up to the 18 day MVA on stronger volume. It hit the target Wednesday. If it falls again near 43 to 42.50, exit.
TSN 05/22 Test BO 15.55 +0.52 15.15 18 1.3M 976K 14.50
Got the good volume this time!
TSN 05/11 Test BO 15.55 +0.52 14.5 17.5 1.3M 976K 13.48
USAP 05/13 Test 18 11.05 +0.4 15.2 19 50K 97K 14.14
Getting a weak bounce off the 200 day MVA.
USPH 06/19 cup hdl 20.07 +0.19 20.05 25 134K 100K 18.65
Moving higher but no volume.
USPH 06/08 Flat 20.07 +0.19 19.1 24.85 134K 100K 17.25
USPI 05/15 Test 18 29.76 -0.17 28.05 37 181K 374K 26.09
Doji's at the 50 day MVA on low volume. Not good action.
WMT 06/17 DB hdl 57.7 +2.08 59.4 73 8.6M 8M 55.24
Vaulted over the 200 day MVA on averag4e volume.
WTW 05/23 Test BO 42.25 +3.51 43.7 50 1.4M 219K 40.64
Very nice bounce on some massive volume as it put off its issuance of additional shares.
WYE 06/24 Put 52.68 +0.98 53.25 49.15 5.2M 4.1M 55
Testing the 18 day MVA. Looks as if it is going to fall back from here.
YCC 06/27 Test BO 26.92 +0.47 27.3 32.75 213K 393K 25
ZNT 05/23 A Wedge 31.3 -0.4 31.6 37.94 15K 37K 30
Back to the 50 day MVA, but on low volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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