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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains a link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/19/2010
ABVT (Abovenet, Inc.--$61.80; +0.12; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abvt.html
After Hours: $61.89
EARNINGS: 03/10/2010
STATUS: Love new issues for their growth and momentum. ABVT set up an ABCD pattern from December through early February. Nice surge up the past two weeks, moving laterally to end the week as ABVT tests the move off the D point. May take another day or two to set up for a continued move higher. If it does, all the better as we can adjust the buy point if it comes back a bit more toward the 50 day EMA at 60. Either way we look for ABVT to break higher and give us a buy and a run to a new high.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ABVT.wmv
Volume: 138.524K Avg Volume: 129.445K
BUY POINT: $62.08 Volume=175K Target=$69.95 Stop=$59.57
POSITION: ABVT 10F60.00 - June $60c (54 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/19/2010
EBIX (Ebix, Inc.--$15.99; -0.01; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebix.html
After Hours: $15.99
EARNINGS: 03/08/2010
STATUS: Flag. Strong run through October 2009 and now working on a 4 month base. After hitting support EBI jumped higher and looks as if it is starting the move back up to form the right side of the base. Nice test last week after EBIX jumped off of support at 14 (from January, December and August). Nice flag, and as EBIX breaks higher once more we are looking to move in to positions.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/EBIX.wmv
Volume: 216.635K Avg Volume: 936.924K
BUY POINT: $16.16 Volume=1.2M Target=$19.81 Stop=$15.31
POSITION: EBIX 10F15.00 - June $15c (62 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/19/2010
MTW (Manitowoc--$12.25; -0.08; optionable): Construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtw.html
After Hours: $12.26
EARNINGS: 02/02/2010
STATUS: Flag. MTW set up an ABCD pattern January to the second week of February after breaking out from a 3.5 month trading range. Nice pattern that yielded a good surge just over a week back. After that initial run TIE tested to end last week, coming back to the 10 day EMA on lower, below average volume. Very nice 1-2-3 flag pullback, and as MTW bounces up off of this support we are ready to move into the play for an initial run up to some resistance all the way back to the October 2008 peak.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MTW.wmv
Volume: 1.87M Avg Volume: 3.395M
BUY POINT: $12.42 Volume=4.2M Target=$15.45 Stop=$11.55
POSITION: MTW 10F12.00 - June $12c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/19/2010
TIE (Titanium Metals--$12.06; +0.28; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
After Hours: $12.06
EARNINGS: 02/22/2010
STATUS: TIE based out nicely from June through December, breaking out and surging through early January. Then it dove. A complete dive down to the prior base. It did manage to hold at 11, right on top of the base, gapping back up last week then moving laterally, testing the gap. Friday TIE found some more volume and broke above the lateral consolidation. The bid looks to be back into the stock and as TIE continues higher we are ready to move in for a rally back toward the prior high. Again, with the market a sitting on a two week run we like plays that don't have to break any new ground to make us a solid return.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TIE.wmv
Volume: 3.63M Avg Volume: 3.489M
BUY POINT: $12.16 Volume=4.2M Target=$14.94 Stop=$11.32
POSITION: TIE 10F10.00 - June $10c (90 delta) &/or Stock
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 02/19/2010
ITMN (Intermune--$15.33; -0.21; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itmn.html
After Hours: $15.29
EARNINGS: 02/19/2010
STATUS: Something of an ABCD pattern the past four weeks, setup by a strong surge to end January and begin February. The move took it up just over the prior peak before it stair-stepped back to test. It is holding over support at the January, November, and mid-November peaks. Looking for ITMN to rally from here, give us the buy, and then rally back up in the range of the prior high to knock down a 16%ish gain on the stock play. When the market has run and is a bit extended we like plays that don't necessarily have to plow new high ground to give us a solid return, and this is one.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ITM.wmv
Volume: 793.423K Avg Volume: 763.545K
BUY POINT: $15.88 Volume=1M Target=$18.44 Stop=$14.77
POSITION: ITMN 10G15.00 - July $15c (66 delta) &/or Stock
New play on a current position:
Play Date: 02/19/2010
SHLD (Sears Holding Corp.--$95.04; +0.64; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shld.html
After Hours: $95.02
EARNINGS: 02/23/2010
STATUS: Flag. Looking at some new positions on SHLD as it side-steps after bouncing off the 50 day EMA and the gap fill of that big surge higher in January. Earnings are reported on Tuesday or Monday after the close there is some confusion as to the exact timing. Either way, we want to pick up a few positions ahead of results as the gap has been filled and SHLD is in great shape to move higher. Retailers have been pretty fairly rewarded as well for their results. Set up well for a run back to that prior high at 105.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SHLD.wmv
Volume: 829.256K Avg Volume: 1.848M
BUY POINT: $95.47 Volume=2.4M Target=$104.89 Stop=$92.11
POSITION: SHLD 10F95.00 - June $95c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 02/19/2010
BRCM (Broadcom--$31.60; -0.12; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
After Hours: $31.62
EARNINGS: 04/21/2010
STATUS: Rolling. BRCM has rallied back just below its January peak where it failed and sold off into late January. This has carved out a rolling range for BRCM with the low at 26, the peak at 32. Indeed, in February and January BRCM tried to break through but reversed twice as the sellers overran the buyers. The stock fell. Right now BRCM has slowed its move below that prior peak, showing a doji Friday. That alone is not an indication of a rollover; it would be better if BRCM rallied on up to those prior highs and was thrown back again, leaving long candlestick wicks on the upside. May happen, may not. If it rolls over from here, especially with a bit of a gap lower to start next week, that is good enough of an entry point for us. Our target is the 200 day SMA at 28 as our initial point to take some profits (58%ish at that point). We will take some off the table there and then see if BRCM can fall back to the prior lows in the range near 26.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BRCM.wmv
Volume: 6.488M Avg Volume: 8.268M
BUY POINT: $31.38 Volume=10M Target=$28.11 Stop=$32.12
POSITION: BRCM 10Q32.00 - May $45p (-47 delta)
Play Date: 02/19/2010
PFWD (Phase Forward--$12.02; +0.11; optionable): Business services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfwd.html
After Hours: $12.01
EARNINGS: 02/04/2010
STATUS: Gap test. Pretty massive gap lower in early February on earnings results. PFWD gapped below support ranging from 13 to 12. Over the past two week market rally. PFWD has recovered from the selloff point on the day of the gap back up to the gap point and resistance at 12. Volume was very low Wednesday to Friday as it hit the 10 day EMA and resistance at 12. Looking for this to stall PFWD out for a further selloff as big gaps through support tend to continue in the direction of the gap after a test. Looking for a move back down to the next support level at 10. That move lands an 80%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PFWD.wmv
Volume: 401.493K Avg Volume: 495.116K
BUY POINT: $11.78 Volume=650K Target=$10.04 Stop=$12.21
POSITION: PFWD 10P12.50 - Apr. $12.50p (-65 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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