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world stock market, us stock market
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2/22/10 Stock Split Report
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Stock Split Report Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: ATHR; BUCY
Trailing stops: FCX
Stop alerts: GOOG
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the SSR alert service you can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertssr.html
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Technical Summary, Economy, and the Next Session. This allows you to choose the segments you are interested in without having to find the segment in a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
MARKET OVERVIEW
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MarketOverview.wmv
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TechnicalSummary.wmv
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/Economy.wmv
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NextSession.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- A test would be normal after the run, though this one was a little harsh.
- Consumer confidence rattles stock investors, sends dollar, bonds jumping.
- German business confidence falls for first time in 11 months.
- UK still ready to do 'whatever seems appropriate', making investors wonder what is out there.
- NASDAQ holds support, SP600 sports tamer selling, but SP500, NYSE are more precarious.
- Upside test on life support after this sharp reversal.
There are tests, then there are sharper drops.
After the two-week run to the upside, a test would be expected. On Tuesday, it was harsh for a test. There was over 1% loss on SP500, and that was mirrored throughout the other indices. The day did not start of badly. The futures gapped lower from Monday, but were still in decent shape. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that prices were still down but improving. That offset a weaker German business confidence and the UK saying that the ECE would do whatever is necessary to help the economy. On top of that, San Francisco Fed President Yellen said economic conditions in the US supported the extraordinarily low rates that The Fed was currently maintaining. That was not great news, but it would not keep the market down. As stocked opened, they rallied to the upside and turned positive. There was a weak open, and a good recovery after a nothing day on Monday where the indices traded in a flat range. This looked to be shaping up nicely, but then the February Consumer Confidence numbers came out. They missed badly with a 20% drop from the prior month. There is a big disconnect between the consumer and what the economists think is happening in the economy. When Consumer Confidence came out, the market gapped lower and the individual indices turned over sharply. When the news came out, the NASDAQ gapped lower and did not get much better after that. They sold off through lunch and did make an afternoon recovery. That was a credible rebound, but they faded back late in the day. They did not go to session lows, but they did give up a decent bounce that gave hope for a turn back to the upside. In the end, SP500 broke below the 1105-1100 support range. It is now back in the lower quarter of the November-December consolidation. NASDAQ bounced off the 2205 level. That is an important support level, and it managed to hold it on the day. SP600 held up decently, and SOX is at support as well. There is still upside possibility, but the day was very negative overall. It was not the easy pullback you would like to see in a simple 1-2-3 test.
OTHER MARKETS
Dollar. The dollar performed well against a basket of currencies, as well the Euro (1.3512 Euros versus 1.3596 Monday). It rallied to the upside. It did not take out its prior high, but hit a new closing high on this run. This run is off the late-November low and starting in early December. It was a very solid and credible run for the dollar, and it has had two back-to-back closes below 1.36. That level acted as the bottom of the range for the dollar versus the Euro, which had been 1.36-1.38. It is now trying to make a break out of that range to the upside.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Bonds. Bonds reversed their recent selling. As the US economy looked weak and Europe had questions raised due to German and UK issues, there were moves into US bonds. The 10 year supported a significant move (3.68% versus 3.80% Monday). I talked on Monday about the bond coming down and testing the prior support level, and that is exactly what it did. There was a nice rebound, a sell off, and now it is holding and trying to bounce on stronger volume. Worries about the economy make bonds more appealing. Ben Bernanke fired a warning shot across the bow of bonds investors that they need to start moving to the sidelines with the discount rate hike, but the economy will trump. If it remains low, they are not doing anything with the Fed funds rate, which is the key rate that everyone watches. Thus, bonds rallied and yields fell.
Looking at the TIPS, it has pulled down to the 78% retracement on the Fibonacci chart. It bounced and came back to that level again and is trying to bounce from there. That particular level can lead to powerful continuation moves. When there is a selloff down to the 78% level, that typically shows a lot of lost momentum. When it tests it again and holds, however, it sometimes forms a solid support level and continues back to the upside. That could indicate that bonds are in for a rally period for now.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tip.jpeg
Oil. Oil had a tougher day. It fell as the dollar rallied. If there are worries about the economy here, in Europe, and elsewhere, that means less demand for oil. It was down over $1.00. It managed to rally to an interim peak in its range and sold back. It showed a doji on Monday and sold back on Tuesday. We will see how it holds near the bottom of the rage at $76. That will be an important point on this test. We will see if it can hold, rebound, and challenge the peak at $82-83. Thus far, oil has been contained inside this range, even with the world economies looking as if they were improving. There is a question mark thrown up now, but this is how things work in this market. One week, things look rosy and everyone is talking about new highs on all of the indices. The next week, some economic data comes out or there is an issue in Europe, and then everyone is talking about a double dip recession or a test to the March 2009 lows. It swings back and forth because the market is very news driven. There are two sides of the market right now, and they are very opinionated on what they believe will happen. We just want to play the market. Where it goes and ultimately ends up, while it will have a direct bearing on our lives, does not have a direct bearing on our trading in swing trades. Therefore, we will watch the market, trends, and trading ranges. We will keep an eye out for other news that can represent the flier out of right field that can hit you in the ear but is hard to play for that. You play the trends, you play what the stocks and the market tells you, and you go from there.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
Gold. Gold also had an off day, but it is still above the trendline formed by the December, January and February peaks. It is moving laterally. Even though it lost ground, it is still holding up ($1,103.20 -11.60).
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
The other markets, in addition to the stock market, showed a worried and nervous session. Investors moved to the safety of the US dollar and US bonds when the specter of problems both abroad (Europe) and domestic (Consumer Confidence) raised issues regarding the future viability of this recovery in the various economies on both sides of the Atlantic.
TECHNICAL
INTERNALS
Breadth. Breadth was almost 2:1 decliners on NASDAQ and 2.3:1 decliners on the NYSE. That is how it has been of late. The bigger gains and losses have been tied to the NYSE. The small caps and mid-caps are playing a large role in the movement of those indices, particularly given that the financials have been in flatline mode for the past several weeks.
Volume. Volume was up on both the NASDAQ and NYSE. It rose almost 20% on NASDAQ to 2.1B, putting it above average. The volume on NYSE rose to over $1B, but it was not above average. There is a mixed picture with volume, but there was increased selling on rising volume on both NASDAQ and NYSE nonetheless. That shows that the players in the market where dumping their shares.
CHARTS
NASDAQ. NASDAQ sold off 1.3%, but managed to hold 2205 on the low. That was spot on the button with the tops of the November and December consolidations, and it bounced modestly. There was higher volume 2.3B on this particular charting service and that is above average. It shows that the selling was stronger relative to the buying. Overall, I am pleased that NASDAQ held the 2205 level.
SP600. The small cap index sold off, but it was down less than 1% and held above the October peak. It was quite tame selling compared to SP500 and NASDAQ.
SOX. The SOX formed a double bottom in late January and early February, and it bounced. It made it over resistance, but turned back down. It is also at a support level. The question is whether it will hold this support level and continue higher. That will be a key factor. Can NASDAQ, SP500, and SOX hold near support? SP500 and the NYSE have already rolled over pretty hard without breaking resistance, so they do not have any support to hold near term. Are the growth indices going to be the indices that give us direction? They are fighting it out right now, but all of them were down on Tuesday. Near term, that indicates there will be more selling than on just this single day. I usually like to see a nice, 1-2-3 pullback something like what we saw on AAPL as it moved up last week and then came back to test at the 50 day EMA. There was a 1-2-3 step back, and it was in position to move higher. That did not pan out, as AAPL has broken down below that level, but the point is I want to see an easier test than just a huge selloff on day one of greater than 1%. That shows the sellers are not just profit taking, they are jumping on it and trying to kick it while it is down.
SP500. SP500 fell through 1105 and 1100, coming to rest on the 18 day EMA. There is some support interlaced in the consolidation from November and December at 1095, but once an index falls into a prior trading range, it typically goes to the bottom of that range. That would put it at
1085-1080, and that is not a great move. SP500 never really broke out of the range. It got over some of the key resistance, but did not clear the November and December peaks and has been thrust back.
NYSE. The NYSE is a broader measure than the SP500. Looking at the closing levels, it has effectively broken its short-term uptrend on rising volume. It rallied to the middle of its November-December consolidation. It did not even come close to breaking through the top of that, or come close to the October peak before turning back down. If the selling continues, this could get gruesome, and there could be the bigger test I was talking about when the indices rally up to test a prior peak. SP500 did not make it to that level. It did touch the November and December peaks, but did not come back up to test the bottom of the January peak as NASDAQ did. NASDAQ came within 30 points of that level. SP600 definitely came up to that level, testing it on Monday with a gap higher to a doji and then reversing. There is a rally up to that key point on one, and it is close enough for horseshoes on two of the indices. They turned down on volume. This could be the selloff that was one of the possibilities with this kind of corrective move after a strong uptrend. We may get more downside; indeed, that is what one would anticipate in the near term. With the question of whether there is a hold of support and a reversal, we will have to let the buyers tell us what they want to do.
LEADERSHIP
Financials. JPM is down 2.4%. MS fell 2%. It tried to rally but reversed as well. WFC was down 2.6%. It rallied on Monday and gave it all up and more on Tuesday. So much for the financials leading. That is another reason the SP500 and NYSE are struggling.
Industrials. Industrials were down, but not D.O.A. DE held up nicely. There was a 1% loss, but there was a nice, easy test of the gap higher. TEX was down almost 4%, but it was not totally gutted. This is a similar pattern to the NYSE, so there is some caution, but it was not a complete runaway to the downside. JOYG was down 2.5%, but it bounced up off a support level to close.
Technology. Technology was a problem. I was looking for technology to bounce off 2205, but AAPL broke down through that nice pullback. It is now looking at 195 support (and possibly 190) again. There is a lower high, and there could be trouble for the people in Cupertino. GOOG turned over on higher volume and made a nice rally. It looked to be in trouble last week, and it continued higher. That reversal intraday Monday was a warning. It sold on Tuesday, and we were not taking any chances I did not want it coming down to 525 on us. If it does, we will look at a new play and see how it sets up.
Energy. Energy was having trouble across the board. CHK gapped lower and sold off almost 3% on rising above-average volume. HAL gapped lower, fell 2.6%, and volume was average. It was still higher than it has been. CVX gapped lower and sold off 1.25% on stronger volume. It managed to hold near the 200 day EMA, but energy is struggling since the European and US economies maybe back in the double-dip recession mindset. That pressures all of the industrials, energy, and commodities.
THE ECONOMY
The Case-Shiller Housing Price Index saw a decline of 3.08% in December, and that was an improvement. Prices have been declining at a slower rate for 7 months. There are positive areas, as there were last month. Dallas is one notable, and there are others throughout the country showing positive increases in housing prices. That said, Professor Shiller believes that prices will fall once more. He said they cannot sustain this improvement given the economic outlook. That raised questions of a double dip.
Business confidence was down in Germany for the first time in 11 months, with bailouts as the likely cause. German businesses are concerned about footing the bill with Greece and other potential bailouts. They have already had to recover from a recession on their own, and it was quite difficult for the past 10 years. They had to absorb East Germany and convert everything in their economy to handle such large-scale production. There were the workers, meshing unions, and expectations for pensions along with the reality of having to compete in the world economy. They will now have to bail out Greece and potentially other countries, and you can bet that a concern with the future of their businesses. The drop in confidence makes a lot of sense.
Consumer Confidence in the US was down in a rather unprecedented tumble (46.0 versus 55.0 expected; 56.5 in January). The US has not seen a fall like this in 27 years. It hit a 10-month low in confidence, but the more impressive number was the size of the decline. Current conditions were the lowest science 1983 at 19.4. They were at 25.2 in January. The jobs outlook is weighing on investors. They feel their wages are on the decline, and those viewing jobs as plentiful fell to 3%. Granted, it was only at 4.6%, but that is a significant percentage drop nonetheless. The number of those who found jobs hard to get also jumped considerably. This picture does not match what the economists are predicting. Many say we will have a good 2010. After this report, many were saying we would have not such a great 2010 as far as consumption.
Retail prices continue to build in a good outlook for the consumer. They were down on Tuesday, but they still are building in good guidance into their earnings. They are seeing something with the consumer that was not picked up in the confidence report. Confidence says one thing, but consumers often do another. When there is a very high consumer confidence level, that does not necessarily indicate that consumers are going to run out and buy. Just as when they are low, that does not mean the consumers will crawl into their shells. Retailers believe there will be improvement in sales based on what they are actually seeing in their stores. Consumers may be worried, but that is not translating into a wholesale pullback thus far. If the unemployment rate continues to climb and more consumers enter into the market but cannot find work, then you will see consumer actions mirror what they say in the confidence surveys. 46% is a recessionary number. Jobs, future, bailouts, healthcare many things would fall into the category of worrying the consumer. As with jobs, at some point they become a leading indicator versus the "say one thing and do another" indicator that confidence often is.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
The VIX rose $1.43 on the session. It bounced off a support level at 20, but it is also well below the prior peaks. That is a long way to go. It will have to ratchet up quite a bit to challenge the January and February peaks, but it does not take much to get volatility surging. It was just a one-day turn in both of these instances that sent it rocketing higher. While it is down well in the range, it can turn rapidly. There is also a higher low. It did make a lower low after the February low, but it still is in position to rally from here. As it turns on a dime, that can propel it over these levels. Remember what caused this spike and the spike in February: worries about Greece and the EU. Now there are renewed worries with Germany one of the stalwarts of the EU and the US which was presumed to be following Germany higher. That could be the kind of fear that ratchets up volatility rapidly as the selling picks up.
VIX: 21.37; +1.43
VXN: 21.55; +1.12
VXO: 20.73; +2
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.05; +0.21
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 35.6%. Moved back over the 35% threshold level below which suggests bullishness. Bulls fell even as the market rallied for two weeks. Bounced up from 34.1% last week. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Getting close to the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 27.8%. As bulls rose bears did as well, indicating more bearishness in the market still despite a modest tick higher in the bulls. Up from 26.1% the prior week and 22.2% before that. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market, so still a ways off even though bulls are falling to a bullish level. Continuing the rise from 16%ish on the lows this leg where it held for several weeks. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: -28.59 points (-1.28%) to close at 2213.44
Volume: 2.157B (+18.86%)
Up Volume: 445.733M (-476.058M)
Down Volume: 1.839B (+896.864M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.96 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.12 to 1
New Highs: 60 (-85)
New Lows: 13 (+3)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -13.41 points (-1.21%) to close at 1094.6
NYSE Volume: 1.081B (+14.41%)
Up Volume: 137.662M (-327.935M)
Down Volume: 935.889M (+465.772M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.31 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.01 to 1
New Highs: 137 (-90)
New Lows: 16 (-3)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: -100.97 points (-0.97%) to close at 10282.41
Volume DJ30: 190M shares Tuesday versus 158M shares Monday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
WEDNESDAY
NASDAQ is testing 2205. Can it hold in this range? It could move down to 2185-2190 and still be in good shape because it would be over the October peak. SP600 is still in good shape with a relatively mild loss and mild pullback. It tested the January consolidation lows, and that gives you pause as to whether it will turn back down. As of Tuesday, it was holding up relatively well. SOX is at a potential support level, although it had a hellacious drop on Tuesday. It fell right to the bottom of this support range and bounced a bit. We will have to see what happens with the SOX, small caps, and NASDAQ. They are all growth areas, and it is a positive for the market if the growth holds up. No matter what you say about the growth areas, it was not an easy 1-2-3 pullback. You like to see those modest pullbacks on light volume because that shows little selling. When you see the harsher selloffs on rising volume with 1-2% losses in the indices, that raises concern that a rollover is commencing.
With that in mind, we honor our stops on the upside plays. We will not let plays get out of hand to the downside. At the same time, we will be looking for possibilities. As the market tests, we will look for stocks that hold up well. Whether it is those that make a 1-2-3 pullback, those that hold the near Fibonacci retracement, or other support levels that they bounce off traditionally. If they hold up, you put them on the watch list. When the market makes the turn, if they are still holding up, those will be the ones we will look to buy into. We will also be looking for downside opportunities as well. One day of harsh selling does not mean the selloff is over, particularly if we get the kind of pullback that occurs after the test of the higher level. If it holds true with history, you get a deeper selloff and it takes it lower. If it does take it down, we then have plenty of downside opportunities still to come and will continue to look for them. We still have to see how this pans out. One day does not make a change in the trend. Even though SP500 and the NYSE do not look that friendly to the upside, we still cannot say it will actually tumble down another 10-15% based on one day's trade. You can often get a selloff and then a reversal; that happens a lot these days. We have been watching this move rally higher on lower volume, and then there is a pretty vicious reversal. You have to be cautious. You have to watch your stops on the upside plays, be willing to take them off the table, make the downside plays, and take what the market gives. If it is giving the downside, we will take it as far as it will go. We will button them up when it looks like it is going to turn, and then see what stocks have been holding support. Those that are looking good when the market starts to bounce will be the ones that take off, and we will jump on them. Have a great evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2213.44
Resistance:
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2453 is the August 2008 peak
Support:
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
The 50 day EMA at 2208
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2191 is the October 2009 peak
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2143 is the October 2009 range low
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
2060 is the August peak
2048 is the early October 2009 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 2047
2015 from an early August 2008 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 1094.60
Resistance:
1101 is the October 2009 high
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 1095
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The August peak at 1040
The 200 day SMA at 1030
The early October 2009 closing low at 1025
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
Dow: Closed at 10,282.41
Resistance:
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,963 is the July 2008 low
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 10,283
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 9501
9430 is the early October low
9387 is the mid-October peak
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
February 23 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, December (09:00): -3.08% actual versus -3.1% expected, -5.34% prior (revised from -5.32%)
Consumer Confidence, February (10:00): 46.0 actual versus 55.0 expected, 56.5 prior (revised from 55.9)
February 24 - Wednesday
New Home Sales, January (10:00): 354K expected, 342K prior
Crude Inventories, 2/19 (10:30): 3.08M prior
February 25 - Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims, 02/20 (08:30): 458K expected, 473K prior
Continuing Claims, 02/13 (08:30): 4570K expected, 4563K prior
Durable Orders, January (08:30): 1.5% expected, 0.3% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, December (10:00): 0.7%; prior
February 26 - Friday
GDP - Second Iteration, Q4 (08:30): 5.7% expected, 5.7% prior
GDP Deflator - 2nd, Q4 (08:30): 0.6% expected, 0.6% prior
Chicago PMI, February (09:45): 59.0 expected, 61.5 prior
Michigan Consumer Sentiment, February (09:55): 74.0 expected, 73.7 prior
Existing Home Sales, January (10:00): 5.50M expected, 5.45M prior
End part 1 of 3
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