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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains a link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Post-Split:
Play Date: 02/23/2010
F (Ford Motor Co.--$11.60; +0.39; optionable): The remaining US non-government owned automaker
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/f.html
After Hours: $11.65
EARNINGS: 01/28/2010
STATUS: Triangle. A long time since its last split (2000), but there are several positives for Ford. Nice base and rally from August through early January. For the past 8 weeks while much of the market sold back in steep corrections Ford formed this pattern of higher and higher lows up the 50 day EMA. Then on a rather atrocious market session F broke out of its triangle on rising, above average volume. Maybe it is Toyota's woes and the hearing today regarding its car problems, but this has been building and we are ready to move in as F continues its upside break.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/F.wmv
Volume: 114.688M Avg Volume: 87.941M
BUY POINT: $11.67 Volume=95M Target=$14.22 Stop=$10.88
POSITION: F 10F11.00 - June $11c (64 delta) &/or Stock
Downside: With the market fading from resistance the best setups are downside as we wait for the upside to set up, so we are focusing on the downside tonight.
Play Date: 02/23/2010
BTU (Peabody Energy--$44.83; -1.89; optionable): Coal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btu.html
After Hours: $45.01
EARNINGS: 01/26/2010
STATUS: You can call this an ABCD downside pattern though it is not that well-defined. Just as these patterns set up to deliver continued upside gains they also set up to deliver the downside. After a steady uptrend through early January BTU corrected sharply through early February, its largest correction of the run. It rebounded, stair-stepping to a couple of higher highs . . . looking as if it was going to make the break to the upside. That is the setup. Tuesday BTU broke lower on a shot of above average volume. Ready to play BTU as it continues lower toward the prior low, the initial target on these types of plays. That move lands a 50%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BTU.wmv
Volume: 5.77M Avg Volume: 5.362M
BUY POINT: $44.69 Volume=5.5M Target=$40.77 Stop=$46.11
POSITION: BTU 10P46.00 - Apr. $46p (-50 delta)
Play Date: 02/23/2010
EEM (Emerging Markets ETF--$38.52; -0.91; optionable)
After Hours: $38.56
STATUS: The emerging markets are struggling. Hit a high in January but MACD did not make a higher high as well. It broke lower and rebounded but failed at resistance at 40. Another recovery the past two weeks with the market took EEM back to 40, but it has failed again, turning over Tuesday on very strong volume. Ready to move in as EEM continues to sell toward the prior low at 36. That move lands a 63%ish gain on the put options.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/EEM.wmv
Volume: 103.221M Avg Volume: 71.929M
BUY POINT: $38.46 Volume=85M Target=$36.22 Stop=$39.88
POSITION: EEM 10P39.00 - Apr. $39p (-55 delta)
Play Date: 02/23/2010
IYT (Dow Jones Transportation ETF--$73.59; -0.27; optionable)
After Hours: $73.54
STATUS: IYT peaked in early January but MACD did not make a new high, indeed, making a lower peak. IYT sold into early February. Held some support at 68 and recovered with the stock market over the past two weeks. It made it up to the bottom of the December/early January consolidation that is coincident with the 78% Fibonacci retracement. Showing a big doji at that level and we are looking for IYT to fail and continued lower. The 60 minute chart shows a bear flag, a good confirmation of the setup. A move to the target lands a 65%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ITY.wmv
Volume: 604.446K Avg Volume: 799.863K
BUY POINT: $73.21 Volume=900K Target=$69.15 Stop=$74.69
POSITION: IYT 10P75.00 - Apr. $75p (-59 delta, no OI)
Play Date: 02/23/2010
PBR (Petroleo Brasileiro--$41.83; -0.74; optionable): Brazilian oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pbr.html
After Hours: $41.83
EARNINGS: 02/26/2010
STATUS: PBR is in a continuing downtrend, having just rallied back with the market the past two weeks, making it back up to the trendline formed by the December and January peaks. It failed at that level, gapping higher Monday and rolling over, then selling further Tuesday on strong, above average volume. Managed to recover late to hold the 10 and 18 day EMA, but the 60 minute chart shows a nice bear flag, a good confirmation of the pattern and a good entry point if PBR breaks lower from that short flag. A move to the target lands a 70%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PBR.wmv
Volume: 16.468M Avg Volume: 14.218M
BUY POINT: $41.63 Volume=16M Target=$38.10 Stop=$43.31
POSITION: PBR 10P42.00 - Apr. $42p (-50 delta)
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL
AMX
BBBY
CERN
CNMD
ESRX
FDX
HUM
JOYG
LUFK
NFLX
PNRA
ROST
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 02/19/2010
ABVT (Abovenet, Inc.--$61.10; -0.75; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abvt.html
After Hours: $61.10
EARNINGS: 03/10/2010
STATUS: Down a bit Tuesday, but tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded to cut the downside. Still in its lateral move as it shows great relative strength. As it is holding up we are going to be patient and then if it shows us the move, we move in. To recap: Love new issues for their growth and momentum. ABVT set up an ABCD pattern from December through early February. Nice surge up the past two weeks, moving laterally to end the week as ABVT tests the move off the D point. May take another day or two to set up for a continued move higher. If it does, all the better as we can adjust the buy point if it comes back a bit more toward the 50 day EMA at 60. Either way we look for ABVT to break higher and give us a buy and a run to a new high.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ABVT.wmv
Volume: 97.884K Avg Volume: 124.121K
BUY POINT: $62.08 Volume=175K Target=$69.95 Stop=$59.57
POSITION: ABVT 10F60.00 - June $60c (54 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/19/2010
ITMN (Intermune--$14.78; -0.12; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itmn.html
After Hours: $14.78
EARNINGS: 02/19/2010
STATUS: Plunked lower Monday, but tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and bounced modestly. Fell again Tuesday, but it again held over the 50 day EMA, posting a very modest loss. Showing the relative strength you like to see in market selling. Just have to be patient and let it show us the move if it will. To recap: Something of an ABCD pattern the past four weeks, setup by a strong surge to end January and begin February. The move took it up just over the prior peak before it stair-stepped back to test. It is holding over support at the January, November, and mid-November peaks. Looking for ITMN to rally from here, give us the buy, and then rally back up in the range of the prior high to knock down a 16%ish gain on the stock play. When the market has run and is a bit extended we like plays that don't necessarily have to plow new high ground to give us a solid return, and this is one.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ITM.wmv
Volume: 1.242M Avg Volume: 788.238K
BUY POINT: $15.18 Volume=1M Target=$18.44 Stop=$14.44
POSITION: ITMN 10G15.00 - July $15c (66 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 02/22/2010
TEN (Tenneco Automotive--$19.58; -0.13; optionable): Auto part systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ten.html
After Hours: $19.58
EARNINGS: 02/04/2010
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Great relative strength Tuesday, testing lower and then reversing sharply for a modest loss on rising, average trade. Still a great setup and when it makes the move higher we move in. To recap: Very nice setup from a stock that has solid earnings growth. TEN formed a 7 month base on top of its 50 day EMA, also sitting on top of the August to December base. Like to see new bases form on top of the old ones as it shows the big money is supporting their stocks, adding to positions. Nice bounce then a test last week to near support to form the handle or flag. Monday a nice doji at the 10 day EMA tells us to be watching for the break higher. Looking for a new rally back to the upside to give us the buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TEN.wmv
Volume: 1.165M Avg Volume: 1.304M
BUY POINT: $20.11 Volume=1.8M Target=$23.98 Stop=$18.91
POSITION: TEN 10G20.00 - July $20c (48 delta) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock watch
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