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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains a link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 03/02/2010
PDS (Precision Drilling--$8.27; +0.32; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pds.html
After Hours: $8.05
EARNINGS: 04/23/2010
STATUS: ABCD. Strong rally to start 2010 set up the pattern. PDS hit a new rally high on the move and then started to correct with the market, stair-stepping back to the 50 day EMA as well as the September and October peaks, holding those levels as it formed the B point in early February and again at the D point later that month when PDS tested just a bit lower. Great volume Tuesday as PDS jumped back to the upside. We can move in here or wait for a break over the B point at 8.50. We are going to take at least some positions on a continued move from here to ride PDS up toward 10 where the next serious resistance resides.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PDS.wmv
Volume: 1.847M Avg Volume: 1.661M
BUY POINT: $8.38 Volume=2M Target=$9.98 Stop=$7.79
POSITION: PDS 10F7.50 - June $7.50c (88 delta) &/or Stock
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/02/2010
BMRN (Biomarin Pharmaceuticals--$21.22; +0.55; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmrn.html
After Hours: $20.67
EARNINGS: 10/28/2009
STATUS: After a 7 week trading range over the 50 day EMA to consolidate the November to January move, BMRN looks as if it is ready to get on the move once more. Solid move Tuesday on strong, above average volume, the first above average trade in three weeks. Looking to pick up some positions as BMRN moves through our buy point, then we will let it run and makes its next test. That is when we will add to the position. Solid stock that we used to play frequently looks ready to move once more.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BMRN.wmv
Volume: 1.728M Avg Volume: 1.296M
BUY POINT: $21.32 Volume=1.4M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.83
POSITION: BMRN 10G20.00 - July $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 03/02/2010
WCRX (Warner Chilcott--$27.49; +0.94; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wcrx.html
After Hours: $27.28
EARNINGS: 08/07/2009
STATUS: Cup. After a short 7 week base consolidating the November to early January run, WCRX looks ready to start to the upside again. Friday WCRX surged, Monday it sold off but note how it rebounded off support at last week's low to close over the 50 day EMA. Monday WCRX was up again. Ready to move in as WCRX continues higher.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/WCRX.wmv
Volume: 1.78M Avg Volume: 1.507M
BUY POINT: $27.61 Volume=1.8M Target=$31.94 Stop=$25.68
POSITION: WCRX 10G25.00 - July $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 03/02/2010
CUB (Cubic Corp.--$34.74; -0.07; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cub.html
After Hours: $34.74
EARNINGS: 02/26/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. CUB tried for a new high in January but there was no volume. It couldn't hold it up. Sharp selloff in February took CUB below some pretty important support at 34. It reversed through last week and on into Tuesday. Tried to extend the move Tuesday but reversed on the close. Watching for CUB to break lower through the 10 day EMA (34.45) for a downside play; a gap lower would be nice. A run to the target lands a 70%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CUB.wmv
Volume: 98.476K Avg Volume: 136.236K
BUY POINT: $34.41 Volume=200K Target=$31.35 Stop=$35.44
POSITION: CUB 10P35.00 - Apr. $35p (-50 delta)
Play Date: 03/02/2010
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$112.20; +0.31; optionable)
After Hours: $112.24
STATUS: ABCD downside. SPY is still rallying, but we are looking ahead to what may happen given the pattern and the Tuesday action, that gap higher to an evening star doji. The pattern started in mid-January with that sharp selloff through the first week of February. A rebound to the last week of February, then a dip, then the rally the past three sessions. That has formed that pattern and now we see if SPY gives us the buy, e.g. a gap lower or a lateral move for a day or two that fails. Then we move in. A run to the initial target lands a 45%ishg gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SPY.wmv
Volume: 160.992M Avg Volume: 183.47M
BUY POINT: $111.84 Volume=195M Target=$108.77 Stop=$112.85
POSITION: SPY 10P113.00 - Apr. $113c (-52 delta)
Play Date: 03/02/2010
TS (Tenaris--$42.89; +0.15; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ts.html
After Hours: $43.05
EARNINGS: 05/05/2010
STATUS: Gap fill. TS rallied in February to match its January rally peak. It gapped higher to match the peak and then reversed intraday, closing at the low. It gapped down the next session; the sellers answered the attempt to break the old high with a tail kicking. Then things got worse. TS gapped lower last week on massive volume. Rebounded Friday to Tuesday, but after gapping higher Tuesday it rolled over below the 50 day EMA. Looks as if TS has filled all of this gap it is going to fill. Looking to move in as TS continues lower; if it gaps lower that is cool. A move to the initial target lands a 52%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TS.wmv
Volume: 2.003M Avg Volume: 1.722M
BUY POINT: $42.72 Volume=2.2M Target=$39.88 Stop=$43.58
POSITION: TS 10P45.00 - Apr. $45p (-60 delta)
CONTINUING PLAYS IN POSITION TO MOVE:
Leader:
Play Date: 02/25/2010
MDZ (MDS, Inc.--$8.41; +0.08; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdz.html
After Hours: $8.36
EARNINGS: 03/11/2010
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher Tuesday but was all over the map intraday so we held off. If it can continue the move from here, settling down in the process, it is a buy. To recap: A very nicely formed 19 week cup with handle base gave way to a breakout last Friday, gapping out of the pattern. This week MDZ has tested, filling most of the gap while holding the rising 10 day EMA on the Thursday low before reversing for a strong gain. Excellent setup for a new run higher and we are ready to move in as MDZ continues the move higher.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MDZ.wmvVolume: 1.229M Avg Volume: 500.443K
BUY POINT: $8.44 Volume=900K Target=$10.35 Stop=$7.85
POSITION: MDZ 10E5.00 - May $5c (95 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 03/01/2010
BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings--$43.36; +0.06; optionable): Wings restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwld.html
After Hours: $43.36
EARNINGS: 04/26/2010
STATUS: Breakaway gap. Sold off Tuesday but then recovered for a modest gain. Still looking for BWLD to sell off once more and continue that sharp downside gap. To recap: BWLD gapped lower mid-February, filling the mid-January upside gap on the move. The past two weeks BWLD rebounded, making it back to the 50 day EMA that is coincident with the September, October, and November peaks late last week. Doji at that level Friday, then selling back down Monday on rising volume, the highest volume in over a week. These breakaway gaps tend to continue in the direction of the gap, and with the Monday move we are looking for BWLD to head lower from here after failing at resistance. That move to the bottom of the range near 39.50 lands a 55%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BWLD.wmv
Volume: 412.02K Avg Volume: 445.477K
BUY POINT: $43.17 Volume=500K Target=$40.04 Stop=$44.31
POSITION: BWLD 10P45.00 - Apr. $45p (-60 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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