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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains a link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
With many leaders extended after the latest run we are looking at some plays that are not necessarily ready to split but have solid fundamentals and solid prospects.
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 03/06/2010
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$20.40; +0.27; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $20.16
EARNINGS: 05/28/2010
STATUS: This is another stock that can break either way but with the market in rally mode we are looking at a potential upside move. MRVL gapped upside in early December and rallied into early 2010. It has since tested, falling to the gap up point just below 17 that is coincident with other price points prior. It held and bounced, making a higher low at the 50 day EMA and bouncing again. Last week it tested, and Friday surged on tremendous volume. Thus even though it has set up a potential ABCD downside pattern, it is showing a lot of upside strength and we are going with that if it continues the break higher. If not well, we can always flip. Take what the market gives, right?
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MRVL.wmv
Volume: 38.196M Avg Volume: 12.467M
BUY POINT: $20.63 Volume=18M Target=$24.88 Stop=$19.19
POSITION: MRVL 10H20.00 - Aug. $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/06/2010
CTCM (CTC Media--$16.49; +0.42; optionable): Broadcast TV
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctcm.html
After Hours: $16.33
EARNINGS: 04/29/2010
STATUS: Flag. The past week CTCM has come back on lower volume to test a strong move to end February. Friday it tapped at the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded to positive, indicating that there are buyers at the 16 level, a point of prior peaks and valleys. This 5 month base is an excellent consolidation of the March to October run, and it has started the break higher. After this flag the past week CTCM is ready to run again.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CTCM.wmv
Volume: 233.591K Avg Volume: 439.639K
BUY POINT: $16.61 Volume=650K Target=$19.94 Stop=$15.38
POSITION: CTCM 10E15.00 - May $15c (78 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 03/06/2010
EJ (E-House China Holdings--$18.82; +0.52; optionable): Chinese property management/development
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ej.html
After Hours: $18.97
EARNINGS: 03/09/2010
STATUS: ABCD. Think big when looking at this pattern, i.e. starting back in March 2009. Great rally and then the stair-step back to form the pattern starting with the October 2009 peak. Formed the D point in January and February, and broke over the B point to start March. It is now testing that move, a nice little flag back to the B point and then bouncing Friday on strong, above average volume. There is a down trendline from the October peak, and as EJ continues this bounce and breaks that trendline we are ready to move in for a run back toward the prior high near 24.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/EJ.wmv
Volume: 1.086M Avg Volume: 923.082K
BUY POINT: $19.08 Volume=1.2M Target=$22.91 Stop=$17.77
POSITION: EJ 10H17.50 - Aug. $17.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 03/06/2010
GLD (Gold ETF--$110.81; -0.02; optionable)
After Hours: $110.97
STATUS: Call this what you want, a double bottom with handle or an ABCD that broke higher and is testing. Either way you have a bullish pattern that rallied early last week then spent Thursday and Friday testing on lower, below average volume. May come back to 110ish to complete the test or it could break higher from here. Either way we are looking at the next solid break higher that holds into the close as our entry point. Looking for a ride up to the prior peak near 120 as that is the point in an ABCD you birddog as your initial target. Using options on this to leverage our play.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/GLD.wmv
Volume: 11.091M Avg Volume: 19.529M
BUY POINT: $111.23 Volume=20M Target=$117.48 Stop=$109.65
POSITION: GLD 10F110.00 - June $110c (56 delta)
Play Date: 03/06/2010
MFW (M&F Worldwide Corp.--$35.37; +1.02; optionable): Check and check related products, direct marketing, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mfw.html
After Hours: $35.37
EARNINGS: 02/22/2010
STATUS: Triangle. This is not an ABCD pattern as the D point from late February made a higher low. It has formed a small triangle or channel into early March, however. The stock can break either way from this, but there is a lot of upside volume backing the move and volume jumped Friday as MFW made a higher low and rallied toward the breakout. It is in a good risk/reward point in that it can run up to the prior high and make us some great money while we have a good stop loss point. Another relatively new issue that still has a lot of momentum.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MFW.wmv
Volume: 108.998K Avg Volume: 109.938K
BUY POINT: $35.65 Volume=165K Target=$42.38 Stop=$33.69
POSITION: MFW 10H35.00 - Aug. $35c (56 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
Play Date: 03/06/2010
WDC (Wester Digital--$39.25; -0.18; optionable): PC data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wdc.html
After Hours: $39.20
EARNINGS: 04/21/2010
STATUS: Rolling. WDC is sitting on a support level that spans back to the summer of 2008. It rallied to a new rally high to start 2010, then fell to this support level. Bounced in February and then came back to this support the past week. It tests it on the lows and rebounds, showing the buyers are still here. Looking for a break higher that can hold the move toward the close to give us the entry for a run back up toward the top of the range near 46.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/WDC.wmv
Volume: 4.501M Avg Volume: 4.375M
BUY POINT: $39.78 Volume=6M Target=$45.95 Stop=$37.93
POSITION: WDC 10G39.00 - July $39c (57 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL
AMX
BBBY
CEDC
CERN
CNMD
DBRN
ESRX
FDX
HCSG
HUM
JOSB
JOYG
KSU
LUFK
NFLX
PNRA
ROST
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 03/04/2010
ARO (Aeropostale--$25.56; +0.56; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aro.html
After Hours: $25.42
EARNINGS: 03/11/2010
STATUS: Breakaway gap. Gapped higher Friday once more, trading post-split. Surged to 26.15 but then gave back as much as it gained on the session. Breakaway gap so if ARO can hold in this vicinity, say near 25, and starts back upside we will step into some positions. To recap: ARO posted solid same store sales and a 3:2 stock split. The news gapped ARO over the 200 day SMA and out of a 9 week base. In the move it also cleared resistance from last August. Very interesting because ARO gapped lower in early November; this gap up from roughly the same area creates an island reversal that tends to run in the direction of the second gap. This breakaway gap could have triggered a new rally toward the prior highs at 44. We are looking to pick up positions as it continues higher and then look to see if it tests or consolidates as to when we can pick up more positions.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ARO.wmv
Volume: 2.986M Avg Volume: 2.331M
BUY POINT: $25.21 Volume=2.6M Target=$28.45 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: ARO 10G25.00 - July $25c (52 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 02/25/2010
MDZ (MDS, Inc.--$8.26; -0.05; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdz.html
After Hours: $8.28
EARNINGS: 03/11/2010
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle, fading back last week once more. Very low trade as it tested, showing very few sellers. Still set up well, and if MDZ gives us the move we move in. To recap: A very nicely formed 19 week cup with handle base gave way to a breakout last Friday, gapping out of the pattern. This week MDZ has tested, filling most of the gap while holding the rising 10 day EMA on the Thursday low before reversing for a strong gain. Excellent setup for a new run higher and we are ready to move in as MDZ continues the move higher.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MDZ.wmv
Volume: 254.268K Avg Volume: 508.48K
BUY POINT: $8.44 Volume=900K Target=$10.35 Stop=$7.85
POSITION: MDZ 10E5.00 - May $5c (95 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
CONTINUING DOWNSIDE PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/02/2010
TS (Tenaris--$43.56; -0.19; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ts.html
After Hours: $43.56
EARNINGS: 05/05/2010
STATUS: Gap fill. TS filled some more of the gap last week, gapping higher Wednesday. It tried to continued higher Thursday but after gapping upside it reversed. Friday it was weak again in a strong market. Still looking for a turn back down and if it shows itself then we move in. To recap: TS rallied in February to match its January rally peak. It gapped higher to match the peak and then reversed intraday, closing at the low. It gapped down the next session; the sellers answered the attempt to break the old high with a tail kicking. Then things got worse. TS gapped lower last week on massive volume. Rebounded Friday to Tuesday, but after gapping higher Tuesday it rolled over below the 50 day EMA. Looks as if TS has filled all of this gap it is going to fill. Looking to move in as TS continues lower; if it gaps lower that is cool. A move to the initial target lands a 52%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TS.wmv
Volume: 3.505M Avg Volume: 1.769M
BUY POINT: $43.44 Volume=2.2M Target=$39.88 Stop=$44.54
POSITION: TS 10P45.00 - Apr. $45p (-60 delta)
Play Date: 03/04/2010
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$31.09; +0.09; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
After Hours: $31.09
EARNINGS: 04/26/2010
STATUS: ABCD down/head and shoulders. Held the line Friday, but still in the same weaker pattern. Just being patient to see if VSEA makes the turn back down as the ride to that level is a pretty nice one. To recap: VSEA has formed the familiar head and shoulders pattern spanning November to the present. The pattern is unusually well formed. During the past 10 weeks it has also formed an ABCD downside pattern, rallying this past week to the 50 day EMA, making a higher high over the mid-February peak, but running into resistance at the 50 day EMA. It ran into that level Tuesday and has stalled; after tapping it on the Tuesday and Wednesday highs VSEA gapped to that level Thursday but rolled over and closed negative. Looking for a continued downdraft to move in. A run to our initial target near 28 lands a 40%ish gain. There is some support at 28 but that is also the neckline, and we would anticipate VSEA breaking lower through that level. Thus we will leave some positions open to see if VSEA can make the play down to that next support level and really ramp up the gains.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/VSEA.wmv
Volume: 308.883K Avg Volume: 687.9K
BUY POINT: $30.77 Volume=825K Target=$28.04 Stop=$31.84
POSITION: VSEA 10Q35.00 - May $35p (-69 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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