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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains a link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
New Pre-Announcement Play:
Play Date: 03/09/2010
CRR (Carbo Ceramics--$64.88; +1.23; optionable): Oil and gas equipment, services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crr.html
After Hours: $64.78
EARNINGS: 04/26/2010
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After hitting a new rally high in early January upon breaking from the November to early December trading range CRR slid back and then struggled in early February. It gapped lower but it held support at the top of the prior range. It eventually dipped a bit lower to end February, but CRR held the bottom of the range and volume bounced. It bounced right back up to the top of the range and slid laterally last week. That action formed the short reverse head and shoulders pattern. Tuesday CRR was starting to break higher out of the pattern, moving on a strong shot of above average volume. If it can continue the move it can give us a nice trade up to the prior high as our initial target and then we see where it can take us from there.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CRR.wmv
Volume: 440.884K Avg Volume: 295.874K
BUY POINT: $65.03 Volume=400K Target=$71.94 Stop=$61.91
POSITION: CRR 10F60.00 - June $60c (72 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 03/09/2010
MON (Monsanto--$71.28; -0.74; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
After Hours: $71.28
EARNINGS: 04/07/2010
STATUS: Rolling. Yes we have a downside play on this one, but if MON continues to show support at this 70ish level. It has held here on and off since October 2008. After a lower test in October and a subsequent rally, MON has come back to test and thus far hold this higher support level. If it can hold it on this next test it will be a buy for us. It can still come back lower to 70 as it did to start the month, and if it does we will adjust our entry accordingly. It is getting close so we want to be ready in the event it holds support and starts back up. Of course we will close the rest of the downside position as well.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MON.wmv
Volume: 8.332M Avg Volume: 5.281M
BUY POINT: $72.38 Volume=8M Target=$83.88 Stop=$69.88
POSITION: MON 10G70.00 - July $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 03/09/2010
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$43.89; +1.64; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
After Hours: $43.82
EARNINGS: 04/26/2010
STATUS: Another oil stock that has come back to what looks to be a true support point at 40-41, holding it late last week and then bouncing this week, jumping Tuesday on very strong trade. If it can continue the move then we are going to move in and try to ride it up near the prior high or if not, the October peak just over 50.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SWN.wmv
Volume: 12.646M Avg Volume: 4.583M
BUY POINT: $44.55 Volume=5.2M Target=$51.68 Stop=$41.43
POSITION: SWN 10F43.00 - June $43c (56 delta) &/or Stock
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 03/09/2010
GLW (Corning--$18.40; +0.05; optionable): Telecom equipment, flat panel glass
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glw.html
After Hours: $18.30
EARNINGS: 04/26/2010
STATUS: Cup. After a solid rally from November to early January, GLW is working on an 8 week base, and it looks as if it has bottomed. It touched down in early February intraday, tapping the late November consolidation range as well as the August 2009 high. It bounced then came back and tested again on the intraday low, snapping back once more. Plenty of buyers supporting GLW at that point, a level coincident with the 61% Fibonacci retracement. A double bottom is a good signal at that point. It rallied back to the bounce point after the prior low and on Monday gapped through that level as well as the 50 day EMA. If GLW can continue we are ready to move in with some positions for a rally back up to the prior high as our initial target.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/GLW.wmv
Volume: 13.155M Avg Volume: 15.351M
BUY POINT: $18.48 Volume=18M Target=$21.38 Stop=$17.19
POSITION: GLW 10H18.00 - Aug. $18c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 03/09/2010
HK (Petrohawk Energy--$21.37; +0.43; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hk.html
After Hours: $21.41
EARNINGS: 05/03/2010
STATUS: Rolling. Petrohawk is caged in an 11 month trading range from 20 up to 26. It has used this level as support during just about all of the base, and HK is coming back to test that level right now. It has not hit the bottom and shown a reversal yet so we are still looking for the stock to hold in this 20 to 21 range and give us another reversal indication as in September, November and December, and in February. Something similar to a reach lower and then a reverse off the lows on the close. That would be followed by a higher close to give us the trigger. Of course if HK turns upside from here (where it did in early February) and moves through our buy point on the close, then we can go ahead and enter. We just have to let it finish setting up, but we wanted to have it on the report as it is getting close.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HK.wmv
Volume: 7.476M Avg Volume: 5.249M
BUY POINT: $21.64 Volume=7M Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.28
POSITION: HK 10F20.00 - June $20c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/09/2010
GOOG (Google--$560.19; -2.29; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
After Hours: $559.00
EARNINGS: 01/21/2010
STATUS: Flag. GOOG gapped over a couple of important points last Friday. It cleared the October peak, the November gap over that peak, and the January gap back down. Okay, three points. That makes the move all the more impressive. It has tested this week, filling the gap on the Tuesday low and rebounding off the lows. We are looking for a resumption of the upside move, holding our buy point into the close to give us the entry point.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/GOOG.wmv
Volume: 3.178M Avg Volume: 3.197M
BUY POINT: $564.44 Volume=4M Target=$609.45 Stop=$554.11
POSITION: GOOG 10F560.00 - June $560c (52 delta) or GOOG 10F570.00 - June $570c (44 delta)
Downside Plays:
Play Date: 03/09/2010
BTU (Peabody Energy--$47.78; -0.40; optionable): Coal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btu.html
After Hours: $47.83
EARNINGS: 01/26/2010
STATUS: ABCD down. We are looking at BTU or KOL, whichever breaks first. BTU has a lot of currents. It bumped 46ish three times October, November and December, finally breaking higher in January. It could not hold the break, however, and within two weeks was heading lower, breaking the uptrend. Rebounded started February, stair-stepping higher. That set up the ABCD pattern with the D point currently forming. Trying to sell off and break that key level once more that it could not hold on the January breakout. Looking for it to hold a break lower through this support. A move to the initial target lands a 45%ish gain and that short changes the move: it should go down to the A point at 40 so if it is selling well we will let it keep running.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BTU.wmv
Volume: 4.619M Avg Volume: 5.448M
BUY POINT: $47.44 Volume=6.2M Target=$42.67 Stop=$49.65
POSITION: BTU 10R49.00 - June $49p (-47 delta)
Play Date: 03/09/2010
X (US Steel--$60.23; -0.80; optionable): Steel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/x.html
After Hours: $60.40
EARNINGS: 04/26/2010
STATUS: ABCD down. Not the clearest, but there is a bit of a hitch on the rebound in February, forming the B and C points. Rallied up to the D point, gapping Monday then gapping lower Tuesday. This action coincides with X's move up to the 78% Fibonacci retracement. It is not completely developed yet, but if X breaks hard to the downside we want to be ready to move in and take advantage of it. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/X.wmv
Volume: 20.844M Avg Volume: 16.795M
BUY POINT: $59.53 Volume=22M Target=$52.55 Stop=$61.84
POSITION: X 10S60.00 - July $60p (-45 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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