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world stock market, us stock market
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3/11/10 Stock Split Report
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Stock Split Report Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: HK; VSEA
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Technical Summary, Economy, and the Next Session. This allows you to choose the segments you are interested in without having to find the segment in a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
MARKET OVERVIEW
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MarketOverview.wmv
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TechnicalSummary.wmv
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/Economy.wmv
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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SUMMARY:
- Familiar theme: soft start leads to a new bid and a drift higher to positive territory.
- SP500 at January high is the talk of the market, but SP500 is a laggard, not a leader.
- China inflation data dominates early market action, US economic reports.
- Jobless claims pretty much in line though still weather tainted.
- Trade deficit shrinks, but not due to rising exports.
- Friday after a good run with SP500 at resistance. Not expecting much . . .
Soft start then a melt higher into the close and not a sign of sellers.
The SP500 spent another day tickling at the January peak, and it came within half a point of making that level. That had all the financial stations and technicians buzzing about whether it would break it or fail, but let us take a reality check. It is there, but the level is not the key; it is how it reacts around that level. It is not whether it goes up and stays above for a day or two, but it is what it does after it gets here and what it does on some volume. It is close now and it has been time to watch it, but this does not say anything but that it has had a good run and it is at another high. The other indices are there as well, and maybe it is time to take a rest. It did not say there is a reversal, and it did not say it would go further. We have to watch what happens and let the sign posts of the market tell us what is down the road.
Other than the SP500 getting to the level, we have to look at the themes, and that takes us to how the index reacts at that level. The themes of late, particularly over the past couple of days, have been mediocre. There is a quiet start, a recovery, and then a melt higher late in the day. The sellers tried to come in on Wednesday in the last hour and pushed on the stocks. They did not succeed; the market rebounded up and closed at session highs. On Tuesday, they came in and had more success and pushed the market down harder, but the market managed to come back up again. That is the theme: soft starts, narrow trading ranges, and then a melt higher. Sometimes the sellers showed up and sometimes they did not. Over the past three days, the sellers have shown up in fewer numbers each day. On Thursday, they barely showed up at all in the afternoon and let the SP500 kiss that January high. Are the sellers playing possum or giving up? That is why there is so much fascination with this level. The sellers are probably still there and merely waiting for their opportunity. The bigger picture is that NASDAQ and the SP500 have already crushed through their January peaks. With these great runs, they are likely extended and need the pullback. It just so happens that SP500 is right at its January peak. It was a laggard, but the financials finally got on board over the last few days and pushed it higher. That is what got SP500 to this level, and now they may have a pullback. That will have the technicians buzzing about failing at this point, but is there really a failure? NASDAQ, SP600, and SP400 already broke through. They would be just testing, and they are the market leaders rather than the SP500.
Weekly jobless claims came out and were a bit worse than expected at 462K. That is still a pretty onerous amount, but it is lower than the prior week, so people were feeling better about the jobs picture. There is not much comfort out there, but there is always hope. The trade deficit was better than expected at -37.29M. It did not hit the -41B expected, but is that necessarily a good thing? We import a lot of goods when US consumers and businesses are doing well. The fact that we imported less oil and automobiles indicates we are not spending that much money. That is not necessarily a great economic sign, even though it will raise GDP because imports lower GDP.
Those were not the real stories moving the market, however. The futures were already down when they came out, and they did not change much when that news hit. China's inflation story is what brought the futures lower. Their inflation jumped a lot higher than expected, rising 2.7% (a 16-month high). That led to worries that the Chinese central bank will have to take more action sooner rather than later. Recall they have raised bank reserves at least twice over the last few months in an attempt to slow down the expansion. New loans leapt past expectations, so raising the reserves is not slowing the lending down. Production surged 20.7%, and that is the most in more than 5 years. That does not sound bad we would love to have these kinds of problems but the issue is that China creates major bubbles. 50% of all the office space in Beijing is vacant. It is being built, but is vacant. At the same time, all available land is being snapped up with prices and interest rates rising rapidly even though no one is using the space. These are telltale signs of the bubble. There is more than one bubble in China, and it literally has the tiger by the tail as it rides this great expansion. The Chinese government knows things are getting out of control. It could end ugly, and it would not end well for the other economies that depend on China to suck up a lot of resources and grow the GDP's of the resource and mineral producers around the world. Who knows when it will end; bubbles can go for quite some time. We have seen them last here for longer than anyone could expect, but the money runs out eventually, and then it all starts to collapse. Maybe China can engineer something that no other government has in the past, but I would not bet on it. Maybe it will be a growth engine and spur the rest of the world economy on, and we will all live happily into the next ten years. I will not be dreaming about it because we have to deal with reality.
OTHER MARKETS
Dollar. The dollar weakened on Thursday as the session progressed, and the stock market recovered from the weak early open. It is stair stepping higher on the SPY chart. The dollar ended down modestly, but it was not hammered (1.3675 Euro versus 1.3650 Wednesday). It was trading below 1.36 with regularity until the later part of this week when it bumped up toward the top into the 1.36-1.37 range. The dollar is still working in this lateral consolidation, similar to what it did in December and January after the initial break of the downtrend. There is nothing to get too worried about with respect to the dollar peaking out. There is resistance from the summer of 2009 as well as some points in late 2008. It is normal for the rally to stall and consolidate at prior consolidation or key levels where the market or index rallied or stalled prior. This is normal activity and nothing to get upset about. The thing with financial stations today is we have all the information at our fingertips, so we tend to overreact or get too impatient and let normal patterns and consolidations work. We want it to consolidate now, but by definition, that is not how the process works.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Oil. Oil spent another day on the top of its range. It was not a bad day, but it was not able to go anywhere ($82.11, +.02) After Wednesday, it broached the level and was thrown back. It is still testing. There is no clear sign of a reversal, and no clear sign it will break through. It rallied up to the level and stalled, and it has not shown what its next move will be. It is interesting to note that with China's production surging over 20%, the price of oil hardly wiggled. That indicates it may be overbought right now, but that does not mean it is necessarily going to crash back down into the lower parts of the range.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
Gold. Gold was virtually flat ($1,108.20, +.10). It seems strange it could have such a small change with such a large price, but that is the way it worked out. It is back at some support. It has pulled back and will try to make a bounce. The question is whether it will make the bounce that takes it over the peaks at about 1150, or maybe delivers a new run. It is definitely basing and trying to set up, and it has a reverse head and shoulders. Often they form at the bottom of a cup and can send the stock, commodity, or index higher. We will be watching that.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Bonds. Bonds continued their own lateral march. The 10 year sold off somewhat (3.73% versus 3.72% Wednesday). The big moving part of the curve is still the short end. It is still gaining ground, but bonds are walking laterally. They continue to erode in price overall, thus pushing yields higher. That makes sense if the economy is improving, and particularly if the Fed has turned from saying rates will be left alone to talking about the necessity of a hike in the future.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tip.jpeg
TECHNICAL
INTERNALS
Breadth. SP500 1.3:1 advancers over decliners; 1.5:1 NYSE. With the SP500 moving up along with the mid caps and small caps, breadth will remain decent. It was down from the 2.1 advantage held on Wednesday, however. There has been strong, solid, positive volume on the move higher, and as the market slows its upside move, you would expect to see the breadth slow as well. That is exactly what is happening.
Volume. Volume is showing the same thing, dropping below average at -14% on NASDAQ to 2B. NYSE volume was down 15%, slowing to 975M. That was also below average. There were two days above average on Tuesday and Wednesday as it pushed up to the January high. It is a positive to see the volume spike as it moved in, although it is hard to call it a spike it is more of a swelling mosquito bite of volume. Then it backed off as it tapped that level on Tuesday. There is not a lot of power on in this move, but it is not dead move either.
CHARTS
SP500. SP500 is the buzz and everyone is watching it, although it is not the leader. You need to turn the bell cow, as the saying goes. In other words, you should watch the leaders; they are the ones to influence. SP500 had not been the leader because the financials have not done well. They have been performing over the past few days, and that is when SP500 got its act in gear and broke up over the range of the November and December consolidation. Now that the financials are active, it may make the breakout, but it is not the strongest one. As it is matching the prior peak, looking at MACD is interesting. It looks like it might try to make a higher high and show increasing momentum. That has not happened yet, but it would be a positive. It would add to the fact that NASDAQ and the small and mid-caps have already broken out. Does it matter that it is at this level? Yes, it does. Does the Thursday action mean anything? No, it does not. It is how it acts around here that matters. Does it break above it and come back and test? Does it turn and flee from here and, if so, how hard? Does it just come down and test the last move, or does it shoot higher and then reverse and sell hard? There are different scenarios that could play out, but looking at indices such as the NASDAQ, I do not think it will turn tail and run (at least not hard).
NASDAQ. NASDAQ had lower, below-average volume; trade backed off as it made a new rally high. That is never a good thing, but volume has been good on the move higher since March started. I am not too concerned about one day of declining volume, particularly given that the run is significantly aged right now and will likely need to test the January peak it broke through. I cannot get too worried about a lower-volume day because a test would be natural, and it may or may not come on Friday, Monday, or Tuesday. Momentum continues on until something requires it to slow. There are plenty of buyers that continue to nip at the heels of the market and push it higher while the sellers although they tried on Tuesday and Wednesday have decided to let the buyers run their course and run out of ammunition before they try again. The important point is that NASDAQ is a leader and SP500 is a follower. SP500 is a weight dragging on NASDAQ, and now that the large caps are at their January high, maybe they will exert negative influence on NASDAQ to get it to make the test. There is no issue with that. Healthy markets have to test, and this has been a significant run with just one three-day pullback along the way.
SP600. Without a doubt, the SP600 has been a leader in this rally, and it was up again on Thursday. It also had the low NYSE volume, so there was not a lot of power and it did not make a new high. Wednesday, the index surged and fell off the high to close. Thursday it was unable to close over that level, and that indicates something of a spinning top pattern on the candlestick chart. That can suggest a change is coming after a strong run, but it is not as clear as perhaps a doji where it surged up and faded way off the high. There is still plenty of momentum, but it is not the greatest place to step in to buy the entire small cap market, per se. It is a good momentum play nonetheless, and if you get a pullback, you would have opportunity arise. NASDAQ, SP600, and even the SP400 are well above their January peaks. They still have great momentum and are still trending higher, but they are due for a pullback at some point in the near future.
SOX. SOX had a banner day on Wednesday, breaking over the 350 range and holding it in check. It was not able to do anything on Thursday; indeed, it was just an inside day. The highs and lows are inside the Wednesday highs and lows. This could be a continuation session where it pauses and continues higher. This is a neutral reading. Since it has broken higher, we will see if it can continue. It will be important if it breaks to the downside and closes below 350 off of this. If it tried higher, stalled the next day, and then broke lower. We will see what happens. Indeed, there were some chip patterns (such as VSEA) that we picked up some puts onto the downside that actually broke lower on sharper volume. I thought it was worth some positions as we have good risk/reward for that particular play. There are leaders and then there are followers in this market. The leaders are obviously in control as they always are it is just they are to the upside right now but the laggards are exerting some pressure on them. Even the leaders get tired and have to rest. That would mean a pullback on the way, and that would not be a surprise.
LEADERSHIP
Financial. Over the past week, financials have started to move. GS initiated the run with a break over resistance at 160, and it has continued to move higher and did so on Thursday. Volume has not been huge, but it does not matter. It is recovering from this selloff and is helping lead SP500 to the upside. JPM was up again, and it shows the same kind of action. It was consolidating to start March and then broke higher this week, helping SP500 rally. WFC broke higher as well and has been rallying, and that also helps the SP500 move. It has happened in several regional banks over the country as well. Financials are finally on the move, and that is helping the SP500, SP400, and the SP600 move up. Many of the small regionals are small-to-mid-cap companies.
Retail. Retail continues to be a leader. ANN continues to move higher and garners more volume as it does. It had impressive moves to the upside, grabbing more momentum and dragging money in with them. This is where it gets almost frightening at times because stocks that are extended and have made impressive runs start grabbing more and more volume. That is pulling people who feel like they missed the train; they are getting yanked in and that pushes stocks violently higher. The problem is that if volume really cranks up after strong runs, then that is a sign that new money is coming in, smart money is exiting, and there is a lot of volume and turnover. Once the volume is gone, the sellers are out, and the buyers have used their money, then there is no one left to buy and it comes down. That is why you have to watch out on strong runs. I am not saying ANN is ready to collapse, but I am saying it is a strong run and it will eventually have to come back and test. We will have to watch the severity. It is making good money for us right now, as it has been. Its volume is not such to the extreme that one would think it is having a climax run. It just broke back above average as it broke higher, and that shows more buyers coming into it.
PNRA has consolidated well. It is setting up, it broke higher, tested, and now it is breaking higher again on volume. Note how the volume was up on the break, and it is up again as it broke higher after the test. That is the kind of price-volume action you like to see, with volume coming in on the upside. After this breakout, PNRA still has plenty of room to run. This is another thing happening across the retail space from restaurants to apparel stores to apparel manufacturers.
Energy. Energy has been a laggard and is trying to come back. UPL has been rolling in a range and has come off the bottom with some volume. It was disappointing that it could not keep most of its gain today, but it is still in a strong move off the bottom. There is solid support here, and this has happened on many stocks I have been looking at. HK is similar. It is moving up off the low and showing rising volume as it moves up. It also closed off its high, but it has been in a range, and I am looking for it to break higher off this range nonetheless. It made a higher low, broke higher, and we are seeing if these can carry through. After lagging the rest of the market, we will see if they can rally as some of the other parts of the market that led the move higher may take a break.
Technology. AAPL continued with the modest gain on Thursday, but it was one that led the move higher with the iPad. The announcement that it would be out in April gapped it higher on a breakaway run. It never came back, so we are letting our positions run and I am happy for that. I would have liked to get in a new position. On GOOG we were able to get into a new position, as it was up again on Thursday. It had a bit lower volume, but was still solid. It did close off it high which was a bit disappointing as it touched into the mid-January range. But it has a lot of positives behind it, and I expect a little push higher. It may then come back and test. We are letting this one run because it looks to be set up very well. MSFT looks like it might try to make a break higher. It has a rounded bottom, a higher low, and it is starting to crack to the upside. There is no volume yet, but it might make the break. The thing with MSFT is that you can make this $2.00 play here, and it may go further. It is a slow mover now a cash cow but it is an important stock for the NASDAQ because it is so heavily market-gap weighted. If MSFT does break to the upside and rallies $2.00, that will put a lot of influence on the NASDAQ to keep it moving higher.
THE ECONOMY
Please see Economic discussion in the Economic Video:
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/Economy.wmv
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 18.06; -0.51
VXN: 19.09; +0.01
VXO: 17.51; -0.34
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.93; +0.11
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 42.1%. Bulls rising but slowing the move (41.4% last week) after the 5 point run the prior week. Rising from 35.6% and over the 35% threshold level below which suggests bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Getting close to the 35% level that is the threshold for what is considered a bullish climate. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level. Dramatic rise from 21.3% in November 2008, the bottom on this leg. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator.
Bears: 22.7%. Down from 23.3% last week, also slowing the move after dropping from 27.8%. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market, so still a ways off even though bulls are falling to a bullish level. Continuing the rise from 16%ish on the lows this leg where it held for several weeks. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +9.51 points (+0.4%) to close at 2368.46
Volume: 2.081B (-13.9%)
Up Volume: 1.301B (-473.343M)
Down Volume: 833.077M (+118.865M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.33 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.8 to 1
New Highs: 195 (-45)
New Lows: 9 (+1)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +4.63 points (+0.4%) to close at 1150.24
NYSE Volume: 975.615M (-14.43%)
Up Volume: 683.878M (-173.722M)
Down Volume: 268.462M (-3.68M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.52 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.1 to 1
New Highs: 378 (-162)
New Lows: 39 (-4)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +44.51 points (+0.42%) to close at 10611.84
Volume DJ30: 150M shares Thursday versus 186M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
FRIDAY
The important retail sales for February will be out with a decline overall expected due to automobiles. That is anticipated from the export/import data showing that automobile imports were down. If you take them out, retail sales are expected to gain slightly. March is supposed to be a good month for retail sales because Easter falls in March this year. Retailers are excited. Another thing to consider is that same store sales were a lot better than expected, and there was a dichotomy in January's numbers in sales versus same store sales. It will be curious to see how they play out in February when sales were much better than expected when the store chains reported. Michigan Sentiment will be out. We will see if it is on the uptake. Remember, the last time the consumer confidence came out, it was terrible. It was down at 46, which is a bad recession. There was not a lot of hope and joy, and we will see if there are any better feelings in Michigan.
Business inventories will come out. There were wholesale inventories earlier in the week. We will see if there have been any additions to inventories or if they are still in liquidation mode. Businesses are holding inventories as low as possibly given that demand levels are not great. Eventually, you would think there would be a burst higher, but it has not occurred yet.
The buzz on Friday will be about the SP500 and where it closes the week. If it closes below its prior peak, they will be talking about the fact that it could not take it out over the weekend. If it closes above it, they will be talking about how it took it out. It will not matter because trade will likely not be heavy on Friday, and we have to see how it trades around this level for a few sessions. It has taken its time getting there, and NASDAQ stalled and moved laterally for three sessions below it and then gapped and rallied through it. How it handles this area is the most important factor, not just whether it is there. . With the market running higher, we cannot look for short covering on Friday to drive things higher. With the moves by NASDAQ, SP600, and the mid-cap SP400, you have to wonder if there will be profit taking. After all, SP500 is up at its January peak, acting as something of a weight around those indices' necks after they moved higher.
It might be time for some profit taking ahead of a weekend. You do not know what kind of news may come out of China or other places over the weekend. China seems to like to announce its raising of reserve rates over the weekend. Given that the numbers are so strong, that might have some wanting to take some profit before the weekend (not to mention that there has been a nice rally the entire week). There could be more narrow range trading as seen over the past couple of sessions. I still expect there to be a bid under the market overall. In other words, if there is any pullback, it will be viewed as an opportunity to move in. On Thursday, when there was potentially bad news out (i.e., the Chinese story), the market was a bit lower, but not significantly. Then it recovered to end the day, melting higher and closing positive. It overcame "bad news," although it was not that bad. If China made serious austerity measures to slow things down, that could cast more of a pall over the market and would be more what one would consider "bad news" for stocks. The point is that the bid remains under the market, and I anticipate that to remain unless there is something to dramatically alter the current mood. I do not see anything like that coming out. While there may be some narrow range trading and some profit taking on Friday, every dip thus far has been used as a point to buy.
We will be watching how SP500 trades around the January peak, but tomorrow will not tell the whole story. It will not be a trustworthy story unless there is a massive reversal. Trading around it is what I would expect at this point. If it melts higher through it, we will not anticipate that to hold necessarily. That may be the signal that gives the sellers a chance to come in, sell the market, and take some gains off the table. When a stock or index breaks below a certain support level, it accelerates and rebounds. Or there is a breakout, it moves up, and then reverses if it has not been a strong upside or downside move. That is what we may see here. We will see how it reacts to the level, but overall, the market has down a good job of going through the January peak and not worrying at it. It did not treat it as an obstacle with respect to the growth indices. That shows there is a bid underlying the market for better economic times, and it moved the growth stocks up. That is why SP500, while important, will not be the make-or-break issue for the market over the near term. We will be looking at some plays on Friday, but again, since the SP500 has to play out at this level over a few sessions, we will not be too aggressive. That said, given the underlying bid in the market, if we have good upside positions at a good point where we can take positions, we can always accumulate shares on those. If there is a pullback, we might be able to pick up some shares, but on pullbacks we need to be patient and make sure they have made their test. Then we can move in and take our positions. Have a great evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2368.46
Resistance:
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2453 is the August 2008 peak
Support:
2320 to 2326.28 is the January high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
The 10 day EMA at 2315
2292 is a low from January 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 50 day EMA at 2244
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2191 is the October 2009 peak
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2143 is the October 2009 range low
2099 is the mid-September 2008 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 2082
2070 is the September 2008 intraday low
2060 is the August peak
2048 is the early October 2009 closing low
2015 from an early August 2008 peak
S&P 500: Closed at 1150.24
Resistance:
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1185 from late September 2008
1200 from the July 2008 low
Support:
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
The 10 day EMA at 1131
1119 is the early December intraday high
1114 is the November 2009 peak is breaking
The 50 day EMA at 1109
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 1044
The August peak at 1040
The early October 2009 closing low at 1025
The early August intraday peak at 1018
The November 2008 peak at 1006 closing 1007.53 intraday
992 is the August 2009 consolidation low
Dow: Closed at 10,611.84
Resistance:
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,963 is the July 2008 low
Support:
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 10,355.91
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 9715
9654 is the November 2008 high
9625 is the October 2008 closing high
9620 is the August 2009 peak
9430 is the early October low
9387 is the mid-October peak
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
March 10 - Wednesday
Wholesale Inventories, January (10:00): -0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, -1.0% prior (revised from -0.8%)
Crude Inventories, 03/06 (10:30): 1.43M actual versus 4.03M prior
Treasury Budget, February (14:00): -$220.9B actual versus -$222.0B expected, -$42.6B prior
March 11 - Thursday
Continuing Claims, 2/27 (08:30): 4558K actual versus 4500K expected, 4521K prior (revised from 4500K)
Initial Claims, 03/06 (08:30): 462K actual versus 460K expected, 468K prior (revised from 469K)
Trade Balance, January (08:30): -$37.3B actual versus -$41.0B expected, -$39.9B prior (revised from -$40.2B)
Flow of Funds, Q4 (12:00)
March 12 - Friday
Retail Sales, February (08:30): -0.2% expected, 0.5% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, February (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.6% prior
Michigan Sentiment, March (09:55): 74.0 expected, 73.6 prior
Business Inventories, January (10:00): 0.1% expected, -0.2% prior
End part 1 of 3
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world stock market
us stock market
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