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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains a link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
New Pre-Announcement Play:
Many potential split plays are extended right now and we are waiting to see if they set up new buy points in a market test.
Play Date: 03/12/2010
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$42.28; +0.94; optionable): Housewares retail stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
After Hours: $42.28
EARNINGS: 04/05/2010
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BBBY started to break higher Friday on good volume, moving out of a 10 week base after a three week lateral consolidation/handle. This base formed below all-time highs hit from 2003 to 2005. Important point for BBBY; if it breaks through it is in position for a nice run. It has laid the foundation and now it is making the break, joining the retail moves higher. BBBY has received some downgrades holding it back while others rallied, but BBBY looks ready to move higher in the retail move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BBBY.wmv
Volume: 4.248M Avg Volume: 2.859M
BUY POINT: $42.45 Volume=3.2M Target=$47.77 Stop=$40.24
POSITION: BBBY 10H41.00 - Aug. $41c (60 delta) &/or Stock
Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/13/2010
SNIC (Sonic Solutions--$10.57; -0.09; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snic.html
After Hours: $10.57
EARNINGS: 05/28/2010
STATUS: Flag. Good run through late December and now SNIC has set up a good consolidation, a 12 week base consolidating the run. Nice surge to start March, fading back last week to form the handle/flag pattern. Nice easy test of the March surge, setting up the next break higher. Friday the stock tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and bounced sharply on strong volume: buyers were there to push it back up. We are ready to move in if SNIC can continue the break higher on some solid volume and start the next run.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SNIC.wmv
Volume: 708.859K Avg Volume: 458.256K
BUY POINT: $10.88 Volume=600K Target=$13.42 Stop=$10.14
POSITION: SNIC 10H10.00 - Aug. $10c (59 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
Play Date: 03/13/2010
TSTC (Telestone Technologies--$18.93; -0.28; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tstc.html
After Hours: $18.86
EARNINGS: 03/29/2010
STATUS: Triangle. Relatively new issue, coming public in late 2004. Good run from September through January, and has since consolidated, forming the current 10 week triangle. It has made a pair of higher lows, making the second last week at the 18 day EMA to end the week. It is reaching the point it is going to show us a break, one way or the other, and with its continuing uptrend still in place, we are watching for a break to the upside through our buy point to hold toward the close and give us the entry point. Very solid earnings growth ratings.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TSTC.wmv
Volume: 461.236K Avg Volume: 900.997K
BUY POINT: $20.18 Volume=1.2M Target=$24.24 Stop=$18.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
Play Date: 03/13/2010
VIT (Vanceinfo Technologies--$22.47; +0.39; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vit.html
After Hours: $22.20
EARNINGS: 05/05/2010
STATUS: Flag. A new issue in 2008, VIT just broke out from a 2.5 month base to start lat week, moving to a new high on the break. Strong volume as it surged higher, then testing back to end last week on low trade, holding at the highs of the base on the intraday lows. Its bounces off the lows Thursday and Friday shows buyers still picking up shares as it tested. Watching for VIT to finish its pullback, and as it breaks higher off the test that is when we move in to continue the breakout run.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/VIT.wmv
Volume: 696.691K Avg Volume: 608.587K
BUY POINT: $22.68 Volume=950K Target=$26.94 Stop=$21.09
POSITION: VIT 10H22.50 - Aug. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 03/13/2010
CNQ (Canadian Natural Resources--$73.32; -0.18; optionable): Canadian tar sands
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnq.html
After Hours: $73.50
EARNINGS: 11/01/2007
STATUS: Rolling range. CNQ, because of its tar sands operations, has its fortunes tied to the price of crude oil. Thus its pattern the past 6 months mirrors that of crude. It is therefore at the top of its range this past week, bumping the January high but thus far unable to move through. It tried the move Friday but was pushed back on rising though still below average volume. Not a reversal yet, but note that MACD is lower than at the January high; no crossover so it is no signal yet, just something worth watching as the week develops. A gap lower would be a good indication that it is failing this move. If it makes the break lower through the buy point and holds it into the last hour then we move in. A run to the target lands a 45%ish gain, and that is just the midpoint of the range. We can take some gain there then if it holds we close it all. If it folds and heads lower, we let it ride.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CNQ.wmv
Volume: 1.547M Avg Volume: 1.547M
BUY POINT: $72.76 Volume=2M Target=$68.24 Stop=$74.66
POSITION: CNQ 10R75.00 - June $75p (-56 delta)
Play Date: 03/13/2010
CRM (Salesforce.com--$75.71; +0.29; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
After Hours: $75.60
EARNINGS: 05/17/2010
STATUS: Bear reversal. This stock has not reversed, but we are watching as it is weakening on this move. Last week CRM edged past the December/January peak, but it did so on low volume, showing a candlestick doji Friday. MACD has not topped out and turned over, but it is below the peak in January, and if CRM stalls here it is likely to make a lower high. Again, this is not a reversal, but with the low volume on the test of the last peak, if it gives us a gap lower off this rally high or a sharp reversal on volume we are looking to move in for a trade lower in the range. A move to the initial target lands a 48%ish gain. That is a rather conservative move, down to the January gap down point and halfway down in the range. If it sells harder the next support and the bottom of the range is at 65.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CRM.wmv
Volume: 1.035M Avg Volume: 1.996M
BUY POINT: $74.54 Volume=2.2M Target=$70.04 Stop=$76.57
POSITION: CRM 10Q75.00 - May $75p (-48 delta)
Play Date: 03/13/2010
MEE (Massey Energy--$50.29; +0.73; optionable): Industrial metals and minterals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mee.html
After Hours: $50.25
EARNINGS: 04/26/2010
STATUS: Bear reversal? A new rally closing high for MEE Friday, but the momentum is waning and we are watching to see if it reverses and trades back down in its range. On the February low MACD made a lower low than it did at higher prices on the way up. Right now MACD has not crossed over, but as with CRM, if the price stalls here then it is ready to do so. Needs to work laterally a bit this week and then show a break lower on volume that holds to the close to be convincing. If we see that and it also moves through the buy point it is a good risk/reward for the downside move to the initial target at the middle of the range, a 40%ish gain on the option play. Again, it may not set up, but this is what you watch for as stocks trade up and down; if the set up you have great entry points.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MEE.wmv
Volume: 5.131M Avg Volume: 4.442M
BUY POINT: $49.21 Volume=5.5M Target=$44.15 Stop=$51.24
POSITION: MEE 10S50.00 - July $50p (-48 delta)
Play Date: 03/13/2010
PAY (VeriFone Holdings--$23.06; +0.07; optionable): Electronic payment solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pay.html
After Hours: $23.03
EARNINGS: 06/02/2010
STATUS: PAY has enjoyed a nice steady rally since December, rising and then testing, then rising again. An exceptionally strong spurt in March has taken it to the 167% Fibonacci extension without the traditional pause at the 127% first. That equates to an overextended stock near term. When this happens you often get a test back toward the breakout point before it turns back up. On the 60 minute chart PAY is showing a lower high at the 61% Fibonacci level, another indication PAY is ready to start the test back. We are looking to play it to the downside if it reverses and is set to close below the buy point. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PAY.wmv
Volume: 996.815K Avg Volume: 1.03M
BUY POINT: $22.71 Volume=1.5M Target=$20.65 Stop=$23.51
POSITION: PAY 10S25.00 - July $25p (-70 delta)
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL
AMX
BBBY
CEDC
CERN
CNMD
CRR
DBRN
ESRX
FDX
HCSG
HUM
JOSB
JOYG
KSU
LUFK
MON
NFLX
PNRA
ROST
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/09/2010
CRR (Carbo Ceramics--$65.17; +0.85; optionable): Oil and gas equipment, services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crr.html
EARNINGS: 04/26/2010
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Holding at the 50 day EMA to end last week, still in position to make the next break higher. To recap: After hitting a new rally high in early January upon breaking from the November to early December trading range CRR slid back and then struggled in early February. It gapped lower but it held support at the top of the prior range. It eventually dipped a bit lower to end February, but CRR held the bottom of the range and volume bounced. It bounced right back up to the top of the range and slid laterally last week. That action formed the short reverse head and shoulders pattern. Tuesday CRR was starting to break higher out of the pattern, moving on a strong shot of above average volume. If it can continue the move it can give us a nice trade up to the prior high as our initial target and then we see where it can take us from there.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CRR.wmv
Volume: 272.558K Avg Volume: 297.743K
BUY POINT: $65.03 Volume=400K Target=$71.94 Stop=$61.91
POSITION: CRR 10F60.00 - June $60c (72 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 03/09/2010
MON (Monsanto--$72.35; +0.74; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
After Hours: $72.36
EARNINGS: 04/07/2010
STATUS: Rolling. Gapped higher Friday on the POT increased guidance. Could not do anything with the gap, however. We will see if MON holds and can continue the move. If so we are very interested in playing this roll higher. To recap: Yes we have a downside play on this one, but if MON continues to show support at this 70ish level. It has held here on and off since October 2008. After a lower test in October and a subsequent rally, MON has come back to test and thus far hold this higher support level. If it can hold it on this next test it will be a buy for us. It can still come back lower to 70 as it did to start the month, and if it does we will adjust our entry accordingly. It is getting close so we want to be ready in the event it holds support and starts back up. Of course we will close the rest of the downside position as well.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MON.wmv
Volume: 6.163M Avg Volume: 5.368M
BUY POINT: $72.38 Volume=8M Target=$83.88 Stop=$69.88
POSITION: MON 10G70.00 - July $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS
Play Date: 03/11/2010
ATW (Atwood Oceanics--$36.91; +0.20; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atw.html
After Hours: $36.73
EARNINGS: 05/03/2010
STATUS: Flag. Still working laterally in the flag, gapping modestly higher Friday but unable to advance the ball. Still ready to make the roll. To recap: ATW is trading in a 5 month range from 32 to just over 40, and it has started the move up off the bottom already, but the past few days is making a test of that initial move. Thursday ATW held the top of a range of support in the middle of the trading range, and we are looking to pick up a trade on this up to the prior highs in the range as our initial target. If it breaks out, we will definitely have part of our position to work for us, but we are also looking to take some gain when it hits the target. The option play lands a 44%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ATW.wmv
Volume: 554.569K Avg Volume: 943.444K
BUY POINT: $37.04 Volume=1.2M Target=$40.35 Stop=$35.66
POSITION: ATW 10F35.00 - June $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 03/11/2010
DIOD (Diodes--$21.22; +0.01; optionable): Electronic and semiconductor products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
After Hours: $21.20
EARNINGS: 05/07/2010
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the test, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the Friday low and rebounding nicely to hold the 10 day EMA. That shows the buyers are still there, moving in on the dips. Being patient and looking for the break higher. To recap: After a strong run off the November 2008 bottom through September 2009, DIOD banged around in a trading range through this month. It made the breakout last week showing some very strong upside volume. This week it is testing, coming back to the breakout point, tapping it on the Thursday low. We are going to wait patiently for the test to complete and then when it breaks higher and can hold the move into the close that is when we move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DIOD.wmv
Volume: 347.066K Avg Volume: 270.223K
BUY POINT: $21.61 Volume=400K Target=$24.94 Stop=$20.57
POSITION: DIOD 10F20.00 - June $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 03/11/2010
JCP (J.C. Penney--$30.56; +0.35; optionable): Department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcp.html
After Hours: $30.56
EARNINGS: 05/14/2010
STATUS: Flag. Gapped higher Friday but could not extend the move. Still in the lateral flag, and if it makes the move it is a buy. To recap: JCP led retailers from 2003 to 2007 then fell upon hard times. It was on the mend then sold off starting October 2009 into February this year. Things changed, however, with its earnings announcement in February. It gapped higher, starting a reversal of that trend. It just came off its second rally of the move, coming back to test Tuesday through Thursday, holding over the 200 day SMA it cleared on this last move. There is support at 30 from prior price points as well, so breaking through and a good test sets it for a continued run upside. It may take another day or two to finish the consolidation. When it makes the break higher and can make it stick into the close we are looking to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JCP.wmv
Volume: 3.627M Avg Volume: 5.198M
BUY POINT: $30.55 Volume=6.4M Target=$35.94 Stop=$29.38
POSITION: JCP 10H30.00 - Aug. $30c (56 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/10/2010
HTCH (Hutchinson Technology--$7.52; -0.12; optionable): Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/htch.html
After Hours: $7.51
EARNINGS: 04/27/2010
STATUS: Flag. Still hugging the 50 day EMA as of the Friday close, gapping higher that session but unable to hold the move. Nice setup, just waiting for the move higher. To recap: HTCH is rolling back up in its range after holding a support range back in mid-February. It edged higher but mostly laterally through Monday, but then gapped higher that session, clearing the 50 day EMA on strong volume. Tested Tuesday and Wednesday, sitting right on top of the 50 day on lower, below average trade. Nice test may take another day or two to finish. When HTCH breaks higher we are ready to step in as it resumes its move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HTCH.wmv
Volume: 238.447K Avg Volume: 390.192K
BUY POINT: $7.81 Volume=500K Target=$9.94 Stop=$7.04
POSITION: HTCH 10E7.50 - May $7.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 03/10/2010
JAZZ (Jazz Pharmaceuticals--$11.35; -0.11; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jazz.html
After Hours: $11.35
EARNINGS: 03/03/2010
STATUS: Flag. Still in the fade back, holding the 10 day EMA on the lows. Just waiting for the consolidation to finish and a bounce higher that can make the move stick. To recap: JAZZ continues to set up, and after bolting higher to start March and breaking resistance at 11, it has come back to test that level this week. Tuesday JAZZ sold to 11 and held. Wednesday JAZZ jumped off that level and the rising 10 day EMA on stronger, above average volume. That is a successful test of the breakout from the 6 month base, and we are looking to move into JAZZ as it continues higher, i.e. we can take some positions early Thursday if it tests or starts where it closed. If it gaps big away from us, well, that will stink. A nice easy test would be great.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JAZZ.wmv
Volume: 330.486K Avg Volume: 377.711K
BUY POINT: $11.81 Volume=575K Target=$13.97 Stop=$10.92
POSITION: JAZZ 10F10.00 - June $10c (63 delta) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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