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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 3 of 3
HUG (Hughes Supply--$42.22; -2.76; optionable): Plumbing supply. Still no firm date on this one yet, but it is moving quite well.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that HUG has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hug.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice recovery Wednesday, showing a doji on the 50 day MVA on the low and rebounding to close above the 18 day MVA on rising, above average volume. That kind of action shows buyers willing to step in and buy the stock at that level. Friday it bounced more but on that very low volume a half session brings. Looking for additional positions on a further move up on once again above average volume.
Volume: 297.7K Avg Volume: 177.772K
BUY POINT: New positions at 44.95 (original positions $43.09). Volume=250K Target=$52 Stop=$39.50
POSITION: HUG JG - Oct. $35 call (82 delta) HUG JH - Oct. $30 call (66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hug.html
NYT (New York Times--$51.88; +2.03; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-16-02 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-17-98 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $73. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-16-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyt.html
STATUS: NYT got really volatile on us right as it made its new high in mid-June. It gave a false bounce up off the 18 day MVA that failed, and then tested the 50 day MVA (49.44) late last week before it bounced sharply Friday. The Wednesday and Friday moves were both on very low volume, so we cannot put too much faith in the move. It was welcome, however. We like what we see with the recovery, and if we get some volume on a move over 52.35 we will consider new positions.
Volume: 411.6K Avg Volume: 565.363K
BUY POINT: New positions 52.35 (original $51.10). Volume=600K Target=$61 Stop=$47.80
POSITION: NYT JI - Oct. $45 call
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nyt.html
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$33.28; +0.45; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 8-15-02 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: URBN last split its stock 2 for 1 in June 1996. At the time of the announcement the stock price was $35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-25-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized, but URBN has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Still testing the 50 day at 32, unable to make a serious move off of that level. We have to be careful here as the pattern. It has not hit our buy point yet after the test of the 50 day MVA in late June, and it made a lower high at that point. There is resistance at 34 to 35 and the pattern is toppy if it does not clear that level on a return in volume. We are thus keeping the same buy point and there needs to be the volume when it does make the move.
Volume: 51.8K Avg Volume: 265.5K
BUY POINT: $35.55 Volume=395K Target=$42.75 Stop=$31.75
POSITION: URQ LF - Dec. $30c (72 delta) and/or stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
Upside:
ACMR (A.C. Moore--$44.98; +2.10; no options): Splits 2:1 on 8-1-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acmr.html
STATUS: Hit the buy point coming off the 50 day MVA Wednesday but reversed to close lower. Friday it started higher again but on no volume. No real problem there. We think ACMR is going to continue up here, and we will look at new positions on a breakout from the cup with handle pattern it has now formed.
Volume: 90.8K Avg Volume: 104.5K
BUY POINT: New positions on a breakout over 48.02 (original buy point $44.29). Volume=100K Target=$48.55 (initial). Breakout: 48.01. Stop=$41.75
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acmr.html
WHI (W. Holding Company--$23.4; +0.25; no options): Splits 3:2 on 7-11-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/whi.html
STATUS: After a stellar move on the breakout in June, WHI has tanked back to the 50 day MVA in three short sessions on some strong volume. Friday it rallied slightly from that level on that low half session volume. With the stock's good move after the split announcement it shows the ability to move. The split is Thursday, and that gives WHI a good chance to rally back into the split after this pullback.
Volume: 230.1K Avg Volume: 68.545K
BUY POINT: $21.31 Volume=85K Target=$24.25 Stop=$19.82
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/whi.html
CONTINUING CANDIDATES
Downside
AZO (Autozone--$72.96; -3.59; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
STATUS: Put. Back in June we were looking for AZO to breakout. Now it has broken down, crashing through the 50 day MVA (77.47) a week ago, rallying back on Wednesday and Friday to close just below that level. The stock is in the process of forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern if it rolls over here. When it does roll over we are looking at taking some downside positions for the fall.
Volume: 2.169M Avg Volume: 1.047M
BUY POINT: After a test of 77.50, $76.75 Volume=1M Target=$72.25 Stop=$79
POSITION: AZP TQ - Aug. $85 put (-72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/azo.html
WEN (Wendys International--$39.76; +0.82; optionable): Hamburgers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wen.html
STATUS: A quick run to the 50 day MVA Wednesday and a rebound on high volume: buyers came in to support the stock at that level. Friday it started back up again. Once again it looks ready to perform.
Volume: 721K Avg Volume: 936.818K
BUY POINT: New: 40.78 Volume=1.3M Target=$48 Stop=$39
POSITION: WEN LG - Dec. $35 call (78 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wen.html
POST-SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
Upside
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$33.00; +1.35; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: After Wednesday's doji that held the 10 day MVA after the two day pullback, COCO started back up Friday, once again looking very solid. We will look for additional positions on a move over 34 on strong, above average volume.
Volume: 353.7K Avg Volume: 469.136K
BUY POINT: New positions: $34.05. Volume=450K Target=$37.25 Stop=$29.16
POSITION: UCS KE - Nov. $25 call (83 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
On Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday we provide full comments on each continuing play.
We have put all plays in a summary table that contains the date the stock was put on the report (so you can go back and check out the details of the play) and the other pertinent information. This provides more information than the watchlist summaries and still contains comments when appropriate. VIEW THIS IN COURIER NEW, 12 FOR BEST RESULTS. You can also easily print the table from the website (www.investmenthouse.com) from the 'current reports' section. If you just want to print the table you can cut and paste it to a word document setting the font to Courier New size 12. Just left click on the beginning of the table and drag to the table end. After selecting, right click and select 'copy.' Paste into your word processor. Select it all and choose Courier New, font size 12.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABY 06/25 Flat 9.35 +0.07 9.55 11.5 52K 283K 8.55
Still looking very good in the base though volume contracts each time it approaches the breakout point. Still a good base.
ACDO 07/05 Put 43.72 +1.97 44.5 40.15 206K 797K 47.50
ACMR 07/02 PreSplt 44.98 +2.1 44.29 48.55 46K 106K 41.75
ADS 06/27 cup hdl 22.92 -0.08 25.3 30.35 232K 138K 23.25
Broke further Friday, but there is support at 22. A bounce from 22 that cannot get over 23.50 means time to exit.
AXP 06/19 Put 36.67 +0.48 37.75 34.05 2.3M 5M 38.25
Rallied Friday after the Wednesday doji on the 200 day. Stopped at the 18 day MVA, the point we want it to stall or we will consider closing the play instead of riding the stock higher.
AZO 07/05 Put 72.96 -3.59 76.75 72.25 2.2M 1M 79
BAC 06/11 Put 70.09 +1.29 69.9 65 4.1M 6.2M 73
Broke above the 18 day MVA after making a higher low on the last drop. Needs to stall at 71.50 and start down once again.
BBBY 06/27 BO 37.7 +1.38 37.85 45.45 1.6M 3.3M 35.25
BER 06/29 PreSplt 35.91 -0.09 36.89 39.72 115K 145K 35.68
Did not hit the buy point going into the split though it is holding at support at 36. We will watch it for a possible double bottom here.
BGEN 07/01 H&S 38.78 +1.54 38.25 32.25 1.6M 4.8M 42.15
Bounced Friday. Needs to stall at 39.50.
BLI 06/11 Test BO 17.95 +0.31 18.5 22 480K 717K 17.30
Big volume Wednesday on the 50 day MVA test and then up Friday. Good recovery.
BPOP 06/15 cup hdl 32.17 +0.6 32.35 36.5 88K 113K 30.50
Tested the 50 day MVA and started up Friday as well. Too much selling, but held where it had to.
C 06/29 Put 37.78 +0.77 38.6 34.75 11M 14M 41.15
Big jump Friday after the Wednesday doji. Closed below the 18 day MVA. May try a bit higher toward 41 before stalling.
CHBS 06/29 A Wedge 41.19 +1.17 43.58 52.35 170K 410K 39.50
CHRZ 07/02 Test BO 4.65 +0.15 4.55 6.45 44K 106K 4.10
Continues to rebound off of the 18 day MVA.
CHRZ 04/16 A Wedge 4.65 +0.15 4.2 5.9 44K 106K 4.10
CHS 05/11 Test 50 35.51 +1.15 37.35 43.98 460K 749K 35.95
Gapped to the 10 day MVA showing a doji. May try a big higher but will find some resistance at 37. If it hits 37 and falters, time to exit.
CLDN 06/26 Test BO 13 +0.5 12.93 15.15 70K 99K 11.50
CMC 06/27 Test BO 21.8 -0.14 24.02 28.5 29K 58K 22.34
Not making the move, struggling at the 50 day MVA. Never hit the buy.
CMPC 06/12 Test BO 3.65 0 4.1 5.63 58K 150K 3.55
Tried to break the 50 day MVA on the high and then closed with a doji. Monday should tell the tale; if it falls from here we exit.
COCO 06/26 Test 18 33 +1.35 31.35 37.25 354K 469K 29.16
COCO 06/20 cup hdl 33 +1.35 29.59 35.55 354K 469K 27.25
COL 06/29 cup hdl 24.89 +0.33 27.75 33.45 285K 517K 24.85
Never hit the buy and is not performing.
CTX 05/11 Put 55.8 +0.67 53.5 49 570K 1.2M 56
Got the chance to exit Wednesday and then bounced Friday.
CYMI 06/25 H&S 33.01 +2.58 32.95 25.55 691K 1.6M 37
Rallied again Friday after a low volume move up Wednesday. The 200 day is at 35 and we expect it to stall there on this move.
DF 06/22 A Wedge 35.2 -0.3 38.76 45 256K 612K 36.25
Once again left us at the altar without hitting the buy point.
DNR 05/21 cup hdl 9.53 +0.03 9.56 12 15K 111K 8.89
Nice rebound Wednesday and Friday even if no volume.
EDMC 06/22 cup hdl 40.74 +1.75 42.05 53 118K 256K 39.50
Strong move in price but fell back to the 50 day MVA on the close. Possible double bottom forming, but if it cannot clear the 50 day MVA, it starts to look toppy.
EME 06/26 Put 55.96 +0.16 55.75 49.85 77K 97K 58.50
Up to the simple 50 day MVA Friday, but still looks weak.
ERES 06/18 PreSplt 22 +0.36 23.06 26 28K 128K 21.20
Held at 22 and may try to give another move.
ESRX 07/05 Put 48.72 +1.56 49.45 44.85 474K 2.1M 51.50
FITB 05/25 Put 67.27 +1.73 66.1 62.62 1M 2M 68
Nice move, but the wrong way. It cleared some recent resistance at 67. Trying to base, so it looks time to exit before it moves any higher.
FNF 06/25 Test 18 29.12 +0.09 31.05 36 271K 564K 28.88
Turned into a 50 day MVA test, but held and is moving up. Double top in late June, however, is ominous. If it stalls at 30.50 this week we are going to close it.
FNF 05/22 Test 18 29.12 +0.09 30.6 35 271K 564K 28.46
FOE 06/01 A Wedge 28.97 0 30.34 35 147K 220K 28.50
Reversed from the 50 day MVA Wednesday on strong volume then rallied Friday. Has to clear 30.50 this time around.
GB 05/28 Put 23.6 -0.09 24.9 21.3 22K 90K 23.16
A doji at 24 Wednesday and up Friday. Not giving the move we are looking for.
GGUY 06/15 Test BO 2.7 +0.2 3.95 6 15K 111K 3.67
Never hit the buy point and tanked.
GISX 06/24 A Wedge 19 +0.44 20.85 25.48 55K 161K 18.25
Still in the pattern. Waiting for the buy point.
GLYN 05/18 BO 21.82 +0.68 20.66 24 38K 189K 19.12
Not bad action off the 50 day MVA.
HET 06/08 Put 42.46 +0.28 45.5 40 827K 1.2M 47.25
Bounced off of Wednesday doji but will have trouble at 44 and 45.
HUG 06/18 BO 42.25 -0.07 43.09 52 80K 186K 39.50
IVGN 07/01 Put 31.3 +1.31 28.65 23.55 615K 1.2M 32.55
Rallying Wednesday and Friday, but fell back below the 18 day MVA after trading over that level. Indicates it is stalling.
JAH 06/19 BO 18.58 +0.05 19.05 23.5 52K 75K 17.25
Held the simple 50 day MVA, but that is about all.
JCI 06/25 Put 81.04 +0.87 78.3 75 276K 482K 81
Continued to rally without hitting the buy point.
JILL 06/22 PreSplt 24.34 +0.53 34.8 39.96 81K 269K 33.25
Held the 18 day MVA with a doji Wednesday and started rising from that level Friday.
JPM 06/29 Put 31.25 +0.3 33.2 29.25 5.3M 8.2M 34
Bounced from 30, but could not make the 18 day MVA Friday. It should turn at that level.
KSWS 06/18 PreSplt 25.49 +0.92 48.25 52.5 73K 89K 44.50
After testing the 50 day MVA twice, it looks ready to move higher again.
MANT 07/03 Cup 23.89 +0.59 24.25 29.25 75K 95K 21.92
Tried to make the move Friday but could not breakout. We will see this week.
MAR 06/12 Put 36.61 +0.72 38.25 34 433K 944K 41
Rebounded from 35 and is just below the 18 day MVA where it should turn back.
METHA 07/05 cup hdl 11.7 +0.14 12.96 15.55 67K 241K 11.95
MHP 06/18 Put 58.45 +0.2 59.55 56 365K 615K 61.25
Rallying with the market Friday. Should have trouble at 61.
MMC 06/25 Put 47.25 +0.87 46.62 44.5 1.2M 1.1M 48.50
Bounced as well from 46. 49.50 is a problem, but if it does not roll over Monday we will have to consider exiting.
MMSI 06/22 cup hdl 19.3 +0.42 19.5 23.4 77K 185K 18.14
A big doji on the 18 day MVA and trying to move higher now.
MNTR 06/15 Put 35.85 +1.35 35.95 32.2 50K 124K 38
Rebounded up to the 18 day MVA on Friday's high and fell back. Right at the down trendline and should fall back.
NCR 06/24 Put 34.73 +0.73 35.25 31.15 334K 549K 38
Caught fire and rallied over the 18 day MVA. May stall at the 50 day MVA at 36.75, but has recovered sharply.
NYT 06/19 Test BO 51.88 +2.03 51.1 61 391K 565K 47.80
OVTI 06/24 BO 14.1 +0.87 14.55 19.48 89K 386K 12.85
Not bad after the test of the 50 day MVA Wednesday.
PHM 05/25 Flat 53.99 +0.86 55.95 67.45 510K 706K 52.03
Rallied Friday after a high volume test of the 50 day MVA Wednesday as the housing market came under pressure.
PNRA 06/17 PreSplt 33.29 +1.9 35.08 38.38 385K 487K 32.62
Rallied to the 50 day MVA Friday but could not hold above it. May be the last chance to bail on this one.
QCOM 06/05 Put 28.54 +2.16 31.5 25 7.4M 16M 33.50
Has recovered somewhat, gapping higher Friday and moving over the 18 day MVA. Looks as if it will test the down trendline and 50 day MVA at 30. We have taken some profits and may close it out Monday, though it should fail at the down trendline unless the market is really moving.
RF 04/16 A Wedge 35 +0.1 34.96 40.5 330K 510K 34
Nice move Friday to recover the 50 day MVA.
RML 07/02 Flat 18.05 +0.01 19.37 23.25 50K 153K 18.01
Still holding the base.
ROOM 07/05 Put 44.4 +2.22 44.35 38.85 165K 943K 46.25
SRCL 06/22 Test BO 33.57 +1.32 38.5 45 210K 378K 35.8
Fell out of bed without hitting the buy.
SWFT 06/29 cup hdl 21.95 +0.2 23.58 28.25 293K 590K 21.93
Immediately tested lower without hitting the buy point, but still in the pattern.
THC 07/03 Put 48.49 +0.89 47.5 44.05 1.1M 1.8M 49.50
Closed out the upside positions.
TKR 05/25 Put 22.81 +1.04 23.4 19 189K 286K 25.60
Rallying back to the 18 day MVA but is struggling. Should turn at 23.50.
TRBS 06/20 cup hdl 31.92 +0.41 34.18 41.02 32K 64K 31.68
Not the move we wanted. Needs to clear 32 with some volume.
TRI 07/03 Put 41.02 +0.4 41.49 37.25 184K 878K 43
Hit at the 50 day MVA Friday and pulled back. Issued the alert.
URBN 06/29 Test 50 33.28 +0.45 35.55 42.75 52K 266K 31.75
WB 05/08 Test 50 36.09 +0.22 38.97 45 1.6M 2.8M 36.45
Rebounded from support at 36.
WEN 06/25 Test 18 39.76 +0.82 40.05 48 721K 937K 39
WEN 06/01 BO 39.76 +0.82 38.6 44 721K 937K 36.90
WERN 07/02 cup hdl 20.89 +0.41 21.85 26.65 110K 405K 20.32
Still in the handle, but somewhat volatile.
WHI 07/05 PreSplt 23.4 +0.25 21.31 24.25 230K 69K 19.82
WM 05/08 Test 18 37 +0.11 38.8 44 2.1M 3.7M 37
Still in a year long cup with handle.
ZQK 06/12 Test BO 24 +0.95 27.1 32 156K 251K 25.20
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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