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Begin Part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers on Wednesday: Again the downside was active with CEPH; TKTX; LTR; NCOG, etc.
Friday plays:
CHUX: Nice doji while still in the handle.
MANT: Moved up to the breakout point while still in the pattern.
LBIX: Still testing the breakout.
TEN: Good move as it continues its breakout.
Best Plays:
1) AYI: Ready for a new high out of a good pattern.
2) ROOM: Moving up to fail at the 200 day MVA.
3) Watchlist/continuing: ABCW; ORB; NWRE
New Plays
Upside:
AYI (Acuity Brands--$17.58; +0.29; no options): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ayi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. New issue in December 2001, AYI has rallied and now is working through its second base. It is in the handle and Friday was moving toward a breakout. With the short session volume was low so we will have to see how it performs when it hits the breakout price. Accumulation in the base is good with 3 accumulation weeks to just 2 distribution weeks. Price/volume action is very good and money flow is rising ahead of the price.
Volume: 45.4K Avg Volume: 98.59K
BUY POINT: $18.7 Volume=170K Target=$22.44 Stop=$16.95
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ayi.html
MDC (MDC Holdings--$50.40; +0.05; optionable): Homebuilder
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After correcting for the past two months, many of the home building stocks have built new bases and are ready to breakout again. Periodic basing is necessary to clear out the shorter term profit taking and set up the next move higher. MDC has moved through a 9-week base, forming a handle last week, moving up Friday in anticipation of a breakout. Accumulation during this base is 3 up weeks on rising volume versus just one down week on rising volume. That is very good accumulation and indicates there are many more buyers than sellers as MDC worked through the base.
Volume: 88.5K Avg Volume: 197.409K
BUY POINT: $53.21 Volume=280K Target=$63.85 Stop=$49.49
POSITION: MDC IJ - Sept. $50 call (65 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mdc.html
Downside
KKD (Krispy Kreme--$32.51; +0.50; optionable): Glazed donuts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kkd.html
STATUS: Put. KKD has made us money on the downside twice of late, and it is now bouncing back up after again bottoming just below 30. As with the rest of the market, it has a bit more momentum on this bounce though it came close to the 18 day MVA on the high (33.74) and fell back on the close. It may have some more upside momentum past the 18 day MVA toward the 50 day MVA right at 36, but we don't think it is going to rally to a new high from here without more bouncing down.
Volume: 660.4K Avg Volume: 559.727K
BUY POINT: From here: $33.75. After a test of 36, 35.50. Volume=750K Target=$29.50 Stop=$34.50
POSITION: KKD TH - Aug. $40 put (-81 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/kkd.html
ROOM (Hotel Reservations--$44.40; +2.22; optionable): Hotel reservations on the net
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/room.html
STATUS: Familiar pattern. ROOM is rallying toward the 200 day MVA (45.75; a familiar affliction after the selling in the market) after breaking down below this key level (previous prices at this level as well) in the last 2 weeks of June. It has held at 40 twice and is making a more serious run now, crossing the 18 day MVA Friday. Volume has been weaker on the rise so we anticipate the 200 day MVA to hold for a turn back down. At that point we move in to take some positions as there is plenty of room to the downside that it can cover in a hurry.
Volume: 165.2K Avg Volume: 942.545K
BUY POINT: After a test of 46, a move back down through $44.35. Volume=950K Target=$38.85 Stop=$46.25
POSITION: URD TJ - Aug. $50 put (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/room.html
PORTFOLIOS: Due to subscriber requests, we are merging the portfolios into one Member Portfolio controlled by the subscribers with periodic surveys on the stocks desired. We had a big response over the weekend and will be putting the new Member Portfolio together soon. If you have not done so, get your choices in now.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
CUB 07/06 Cup 21.07 -1.23 0 0 189K 148K 0
EBAY 07/02 Test 50 60.55 +1.46 57.95 63 2.6M 6M 57
Made the move on Wednesday and now we are looking for the move on up to 63 for a nice gain. This is one that has a lot of call options at the July 65 strike (20K). That will act as a barrier on the upside, so once our target is hit we will take the gain on the options.
HOTT 07/06 Test 50 25.5 +1.16 0 0 161K 692K 0
LOW 07/06 Test 50 44.89 +0.84 0 0 1.9M 4.1M 0
PG 07/05 Put 88.08 -0.28 89.48 85.25 2M 3.5M 83.22
Rallying up to the 50 day MVA (90.15) on lower volume. If it fails there it will be molding the right shoulder in a head and shoulders pattern and opens the door for a downside play.
QLGC 07/06 Test 18 39.88 +2.36 0 0 5.9M 11M 0
RCII 07/06 Cup 55 +0.9 0 0 127K 391K 0
SRCL 06/22 Test BO 33.57 +1.32 38.5 45 210K 378K 35.8
WM 07/06 Cup 37 +0.11 0 0 2.1M 3.7M 0
Continuing/Watchlist:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABCW 06/20 A Wedge 23.89 +0.38 23.35 27.55 18K 55K 21.65
Tested the breakout, holding the 18 day MVA. Looks ready to go again.
ACN 05/11 Put 18.08 +0.58 19.7 15.65 1.3M 3.5M 21.30
Rallied but showed a doji at the 18 day MVA Friday. Low volume bounce looks ready to cave in again.
AVY 06/22 Put 61.12 +0.09 63.49 59 181K 420K 66
Another bouncing on low volume stalling at the 10 day MVA Friday. We were close to closing it, but it bounced. Still in the downtrend and ready to fall.
AYI 07/05 cup hdl 17.58 +0.29 18.7 22.44 45K 99K 16.95
BLI 06/11 Test BO 17.95 +0.31 18.5 22 480K 717K 17.30
Tested the 50 day MVA on high volume Wednesday and bounced. Friday it was up again. Looks ready to move again.
BWA 06/08 Put 57.85 +0.53 59.99 55 92K 358K 63
Cleared the 18 day MVA Friday but still has the 50 day MVA just over 60. Need it to fall now.
BZH 06/18 Put 77.38 +0.57 75.95 72 187K 529K 81
Weak bounce up toward the 50 day MVA.
BZH 06/03 Put 77.38 +0.57 74.45 70.45 187K 529K 77
CHGO 05/28 Test 18 10.16 +0.06 7.75 10 79K 279K 7.21
Another doji at 10.25. Will probably test toward 9.50 before making another move up.
CHGO 05/09 Test 50 10.16 +0.06 7.3 10 79K 279K 7.02
CHUX 07/03 cup hdl 24.7 +0.17 26.1 31.34 60K 163K 23.95
CLF 05/15 Test BO 25.82 +0.01 28.2 34 9.3K 82K 26.90
Back below the 50 day MVA. If cannot break back early this week, exit.
CNI 06/26 cup hdl 52.04 +0.99 52.9 63.25 356K 444K 49.55
Still in the handle, gapping up Friday.
COH 06/03 Put 25.5 +0.5 24.82 22.51 524K 532K 25.55
In a tight range between 25 and 28. On another test of 24 we will exit.
DESI 05/29 Test 18 5.89 -0.04 7.25 11 300 137K 6.74
Still holding at some support at 6 on very tight trade. Looks as if it has a bounce coming up toward 6.50.
DLTR 05/09 Flat 37.69 +2.54 38.95 33 524K 1.2M 36.22
Rebounded over the 50 day MVA Friday but no volume.
DROOY 05/21 A Wedge 3.88 +0.15 4.85 7 2.2M 4.6M 4.30
Bouncing again off of the support at 3.50.
ELK 06/01 DB hdl 27.16 +0.03 27.46 34.96 62K 102K 24.95
Still very good action in the handle, moving slightly lower in a tightening trading range.
ENC 05/06 Rv H&S 8.6 -0.04 7.3 9.5 23K 37K 6.79
Now wedging higher above the 18 day MVA. Looks ready to move again.
EXAS 06/15 cup hdl 13.52 +0.48 15.3 18.5 31K 132K 12
Tanked to the 50 day MVA and recovered and held that level Friday. Maybe gives us a bounce here. Resistance at 15.
FDP 06/26 Test 18 25.38 +0.16 27.1 32.5 128K 266K 25.25
Mounting a comeback, but pretty lame at this point with no real volume.
FDP 05/21 A Wedge 25.38 +0.16 24.75 29.7 128K 266K 23.02
FHCC 06/11 cup hdl 28.3 +0.99 29.85 36 586K 919K 27.76
Recovered the 50 day MVA, but has a wad of resistance from 28 to 29 before even getting the high at 30.
FORG 06/15 Test BO 4.5 +0.28 5.15 6.85 182K 154K 4.20
Bounced up off the 50 day MVA on some good volume, but could not retake 5, closing well off the high. Will see if it can build from here.
FRX 07/05 Put 70.51 +0.91 72.45 68 664K 1.3M 75
Bounced up over the 18 day MVA and is challenging the 50 day MVA at 73. Think it will fail there.
HARB 06/22 BO 23.81 +0.25 24.11 29 30K 52K 21.75
Another doji with a high at 24. Trying to make the move.
HLT 05/06 Put 12.9 +0.26 14.3 12 827K 2M 15.80
Bounced Friday but has a lot of overhead and the 18 day at 13.50.
HLYW 05/29 Test 18 19.5 +0.5 19.25 27 318K 742K 17.9
Recovered the 50 day MVA with a 2-day move, but not sure it will hold.
HOTT 06/12 Test BO 25.5 +1.16 27.05 32 161K 692K 24.64
HOTT 05/29 Test BO 25.5 +1.16 26.5 32 161K 692K 24.64
HTLD 07/02 cup hdl 22.06 +0.06 24.19 29 177K 245K 22
Nice doji on the 18 day MVA while still in the handle. Looks as if it could be ready.
IMH 03/26 A Wedge 11.6 +0.25 8.95 11.2 480K 474K 9.50
Holding the 50 day MVA as it gave back all of the breakout move. This is why we take at least some profits at the target.
IVGN 07/01 Put 31.3 +1.31 28.65 23.55 615K 1.2M 32.55
Rallied right back after we entered, moving over the 18 day MVA Friday but it could not hold the move. A sign of weakness, so we look for the fall again. Might have to take money off the table if it gets back near the buy point.
KKD 07/05 Put 32.51 +0.5 33.75 29.5 660K 560K 34.50
KMI 06/19 Put 38.19 +0.27 40.75 37 425K 710K 43.25
Bounced Friday, but looks like another bounce in its continuing downtrend.
KMI 05/25 Put 38.19 +0.27 44.75 40.25 425K 710K 41.62
LBIX 05/06 Flat 2.8 +0.1 1.95 3.5 59K 120K 1.58
Tested the 18 day MVA and bounced. Still looking good.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 44.89 +0.84 0 0 1.9M 4.1M 0
MANT 07/03 Cup 23.89 +0.59 24.25 29.25 75K 95K 21.92
Gapped up toward a breakout, but not there yet.
MBAY 06/25 Dbl btm 4.7 +0.17 5.25 8 23K 160K 4.45
Did not bounce and is now forming more of a cup base (on the bottom now). May need to form up more before it is ready.
MDC 07/05 cup hdl 50.4 +0.05 53.21 63.85 88K 197K 49.49
NCC 04/30 cup hdl 32.35 +0.35 31.42 37.25 138K 1.2M 29.75
A solid move in the handle Friday on low volume. Ready for a new high if it can get some volume.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 120.95 +1.55 0 0 976K 1.3M 0
NWRE 06/26 cup hdl 10.9 +0.4 11.2 13.55 38K 164K 10.35
Not bad, holding the 18 day MVA with a doji Wednesday and giving a bounce up Friday.
ORB 06/04 cup hdl 7.2 -0.23 8.02 11.94 460K 345K 7.25
Still in the handle and looking closer to a break.
PEET 06/18 A Wedge 16.9 -0.13 18.35 22 48K 246K 16.75
Bounced up off the 50 day MVA, but could not take out the 18 day MVA on the high.
PG 07/05 Put 88.08 -0.28 89.48 85.25 2M 3.5M 83.22
PHLY 07/01 Test BO 44.85 +1.86 46.25 52.25 28K 86K 42.50
Very nice bounce up off of the 50 day MVA after the Wednesday doji.
PTEK 07/02 Test BO 5.68 +0.09 5.76 7.99 74K 291K 5.24
Near the buy point; looking for a volume shot on the move.
PTSI 06/24 Flat 24.7 -1 26.65 31.98 17K 62K 24.20
Turned back Friday after gapping a bit higher. Still banging around from 24 to 26. Needs some more time.
QLGC 07/06 Test 18 39.88 +2.36 0 0 5.9M 11M 0
RCII 07/06 Cup 55 +0.9 0 0 127K 391K 0
RITA 05/28 Cup 9.5 +0.01 10.1 13.9 12K 106K 9.39
Forming a handle to the cup now, testing the 50 day MVA with tow doji's. Now it needs to break over 10.35 for new positions.
RML 07/02 Flat 18.05 +0.01 19.37 23.25 50K 153K 18.01
ROOM 07/05 Put 44.4 +2.22 44.35 38.85 165K 943K 46.25
SAM 06/12 cup hdl 15.65 -0.1 16.85 20.5 21K 37K 15.45
Boring. Going nowhere. Had some of their beer on the Fourth. Good stuff, but it did not help the stock. Still waiting for the breakout.
SIE 06/11 Test 18 19.95 +0.63 21.1 25.45 104K 265K 19.62
Good bounce off the 50 day MVA with good volume Wednesday when it hit that level.
SNIC 05/30 A Wedge 8.05 +0.65 8.2 11 218K 324K 6.95
Recovering over the 50 day MVA. Right at the 18 day MVA, but the pattern is not the bullish breakout of the wedge it was in early June. If it can fight back over 8.75 on strong volume that is a different picture.
SNS 04/12 Test BO 14.1 +0.21 14.8 18 61K 112K 13.76
Bouncing again Friday, but is finding resistance at the 50 day MVA at 14.50. Unless it powers over that level that is now an exit point as the stock has become very, very volatile. Never like that.
SNS 04/10 Dbl btm 14.1 +0.21 14.65 18 61K 112K 13.76
SRCL 06/22 Test BO 33.57 +1.32 38.5 45 210K 378K 35.8
TEN 06/29 BO 7.2 +0.11 6.71 9.35 121K 204K 6.24
Continued its breakout Friday after pausing for a refresher early in the week.
TSN 05/22 Test BO 13.48 0 15.15 18 701K 1M 14.50
Major tank to 13 and now trying to bounce. 50 day MVA is at 14.40 and will provide resistance.
TSN 05/11 Test BO 13.48 0 14.5 17.5 701K 1M 13.48
UNP 06/22 Cup 63.15 +0.37 64.9 73 836K 1.2M 60.36
Not bad action, holding the 18 day MVA. Still awaiting the breakout.
UNP 06/12 Cup 63.15 +0.37 64.08 73 836K 1.2M 61
USPH 06/19 cup hdl 17.42 -0.66 20.05 25 113K 105K 18.65
Dying on the vine.
USPH 06/08 Flat 17.42 -0.66 19.1 24.85 113K 105K 17.25
WM 07/06 Cup 37 +0.11 0 0 2.1M 3.7M 0
WTW 05/23 Test BO 42.6 +0.25 43.7 50 371K 284K 40.64
A ragged double bottom here that needs to clear 44 on some big volume.
YCC 06/27 Test BO 25.72 +0.08 27.3 32.75 81K 411K 25
Tested support at 35 and may be ready to bounce.
ZNT 05/23 A Wedge 29.25 +0.05 31.6 37.94 15K 39K 30
Has totally tanked to the 200 day MVA where it is trying to hold.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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