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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: BZH to the downside; TEN to the upside.
Monday plays:
AYI: Turning the wrong way.
MDC: Turned back from a breakout.
KKD: Turing over at the 18 day MVA.
ROOM: Rallied over the 200 day MVA, but then close below it.
Best Plays:
1) IRN: Looks as if it has the momentum.
2) LLL: Looks as if it has the momentum down.
3) Watchlist/continuing: Some interesting patterns. ABCW still looks good. CNI, ENC, HTLD are solid. LBIX looks as if it wants to make the run. NCC is moving on strong volume.
New Plays: As we wait for the market to tell us what it is going to do, we are concentrating on strong upside and strong downside patterns that have been moving independent of the market.
Upside:
IRN (Idine Rewards Network--$11.5; +0.56; no options): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irn.html
STATUS: Formed a short cup with handle after an ascending wedge in April and May. The stock is a smaller issue leading the market the past 8 months. It spent last week testing a good move on huge volume, and now it is rallying again on stronger volume, though it will need more. Accumulation in this short base is 2 up weeks to 1 down week. It has momentum and looks as if it is ready to take off again.
Volume: 60.8K Avg Volume: 68.954K
BUY POINT: $12.05 Volume=100K Target=$14.74 Stop=$10.45
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/irn.html
Downside:
LLL (L-3 Communications--$49.05; -1.97; optionable): Defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
STATUS: Put. Defense is having a hard time, correcting back from its big run up into the early summer. LLL broke the 200 day MVA (51.97) last week, rallied back Friday, and then rolled back over today on rising volume. It is continuing the downtrend, and we are looking to take some of the money on the continued move down.
Volume: 1.819M Avg Volume: 1.484M
BUY POINT: $48.97 Volume=1.5M Target=$45.25 Stop=$52.55
POSITION: LLL TK - Aug. $55 put (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lll.html
Revisited:
CHUX (OCharleys--$24.50; -0.20; no options): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chux.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CHUX was on our screen today as it tried to make the move higher, tested the 18 day MVA on the low (24.19), and closed in between. Volume was very low on the action as the stock continues to work through its nice little handle. We really like the action and we are going to be ready for this one.
Volume: 40.2K Avg Volume: 160.636K
BUY POINT: $26.10 Volume=250K Target=$31.34 Stop=$23.95
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/chux.html
PORTFOLIOS: Due to subscriber requests, we are merging the portfolios into one Member Portfolio controlled by the subscribers with periodic surveys on the stocks desired. We had a big response over the weekend and will be putting the new Member Portfolio together soon. If you have not done so, get your choices in now.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
CUB 07/06 Cup 20.58 -0.81 0 0 145K 152K 0
EBAY 07/02 Test 50 56.24 -4.31 57.95 63 13M 5.9M 57
Buying PayPal and that tanked the stock. Questions about whether this was a good move sunk the stock. On a test of the 50 and 200 day MVA at 58 it might be prudent to exit new positions and see how things shake out.
HOTT 07/06 Test 50 26.7 +1.2 0 0 692K 652K 0
Strong move up off the 50 day MVA on rising, average volume. Back into the mix, but has to clear 27 in this choppy pattern.
LOW 07/06 Test 50 46.25 +0.56 0 0 3.3M 4M 0
Recovered the 50 day MVA but still has work to do before any buys.
PG 07/05 Put 90.35 +0.47 89.48 85.25 2.8M 3.5M 83.22
Stalled out Monday below the 50 day MVA. Head and shoulders still forming.
QLGC 07/06 Test 18 38.52 -1.36 0 0 10M 11M 0
Rallied up to the 18 day MVA and rolled down. Not one we want to short.
RCII 07/06 Cup 54.63 -0.36 0 0 123K 386K 0
SRCL 06/22 Test BO 33.11 -0.46 38.5 45 323K 370K 35.8
WM 07/06 Cup 37.58 +0.01 0 0 3.1M 3.6M 0
Continuing/Watchlist:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABCW 06/20 A Wedge 23.34 -0.55 23.35 27.55 38K 55K 21.65
On the edge of the breakout but backed off. Still looks solid.
ACN 05/11 Put 17.57 -0.33 19.7 15.65 5.5M 3.5M 21.30
A second doji below the 10 day MVA on rising volume. Not sure we like the looks of it, but are not jumping out just yet.
AVY 06/22 Put 61.53 -1.22 63.49 59 390K 409K 66
Turned back over at the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
AXP 05/08 cup hdl 37 -0.35 43.53 52 4.2M 4.9M 40.48
AYI 07/05 cup hdl 17.15 -1.15 18.7 22.44 125K 97K 16.95
BLI 06/11 Test BO 18 -0.44 18.5 22 797K 717K 17.30
Could not clear the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Not looking great, but holding support at 18.
BWA 06/08 Put 57.68 -2 59.99 55 271K 353K 63
Rolled back over on stronger volume.
BZH 06/18 Put 75.4 -2.73 75.95 72 483K 517K 81
Issued a new buy on this one today.
BZH 06/03 Put 75.4 -2.73 74.45 70.45 483K 517K 77
CHGO 05/28 Test 18 9.94 -0.21 7.75 10 252K 265K 7.21
Taking a needed rest on below average volume.
CHGO 05/09 Test 50 9.94 -0.21 7.3 10 252K 265K 7.02
CHUX 07/03 cup hdl 24.5 -0.2 26.1 31.34 40K 161K 23.95
CLF 05/15 Test BO 26.25 -0.25 28.2 34 18K 81K 26.90
Just holding at the 50 day MVA.
CNI 06/26 cup hdl 52.3 +0.3 52.9 63.25 340K 435K 49.55
Looking very good.
COH 06/03 Put 25.74 -0.07 24.82 22.51 807K 528K 25.55
CUB 07/06 Cup 20.58 -0.81 0 0 145K 152K 0
DESI 05/29 Test 18 5.1 -0.79 7.25 11 223K 137K 6.74
Tanked hard.
DLTR 05/09 Flat 36.19 -1.5 38.95 33 1M 1.2M 36.22
Could not hold the 50 day MVA. Not good.
DROOY 05/21 A Wedge 4.15 +0.27 4.85 7 2.5M 4.5M 4.30
Rallying toward the 50 day MVA, but no volume.
EBAY 07/02 Test 50 56.24 -4.31 57.95 63 13M 5.9M 57
ELK 06/01 DB hdl 26.6 -0.65 27.46 34.96 62K 99K 24.95
Was not ready, falling to the 50 day MVA but on low volume.
ENC 05/06 Rv H&S 8.87 +0.05 7.3 9.5 61K 37K 6.79
Holding well on some strong volume.
EXAS 06/15 cup hdl 13 -0.52 15.3 18.5 107K 132K 12
Holding 13 where there is some support.
FDP 06/26 Test 18 25.78 -0.07 27.1 32.5 208K 263K 25.25
FDP 05/21 A Wedge 25.78 -0.07 24.75 29.7 208K 263K 23.02
FHCC 06/11 cup hdl 27.66 -0.64 29.85 36 476K 898K 27.76
FORG 06/15 Test BO 4.7 +0.2 5.15 6.85 109K 156K 4.20
Still bouncing up from the 50 day MVA, but not getting any volume.
FRX 07/05 Put 73.35 +1.08 72.45 68 1.5M 1.3M 75
HARB 06/22 BO 24 +0.19 24.11 29 36K 52K 21.75
HLT 05/06 Put 13.15 -0.09 14.3 12 1.5M 2M 15.80
A doji at the 10 d on rising volume. If not below 13 Tuesday on more market selling, we exit.
HLYW 05/29 Test 18 19.19 -0.31 19.25 27 556K 706K 17.9
Doji at the 50 day MVA. Trying to hold on.
HOTT 07/06 Test 50 26.7 +1.2 0 0 692K 652K 0
HOTT 06/12 Test BO 26.7 +1.2 27.05 32 692K 652K 24.64
HOTT 05/29 Test BO 26.7 +1.2 26.5 32 692K 652K 24.64
HTLD 07/02 cup hdl 21.92 -0.14 24.19 29 196K 239K 22
Another big doji in the handle.
INLD 05/18 cup hdl 3.18 +0.05 3.1 4.75 1.7M 758K 2.50
IRN 07/08 BO 11.5 +0.56 12.05 14.74 61K 69K 10.45
IVGN 07/01 Put 30.31 -0.99 28.65 23.55 1.1M 1.1M 32.55
Kind of stalling at the 18 day MVA, but not convincing.
KKD 07/05 Put 33 -0.29 33.75 29.5 860K 552K 34.50
KMI 06/19 Put 39.65 +0.65 40.75 37 827K 695K 43.25
Gapped up over the 18 day MVA on strong volume. Needs to fall back fast or we exit.
KMI 05/25 Put 39.65 +0.65 44.75 40.25 827K 695K 41.62
LBIX 05/06 Flat 2.9 +0.1 1.95 3.5 224K 120K 1.58
Got some serious volume but could not hold the high. Still looks good.
LLL 07/08 Put 49.05 -1.97 48.97 45.25 1.8M 1.5M 52.55
LOW 07/06 Test 50 46.25 +0.56 0 0 3.3M 4M 0
MANT 07/03 Cup 23.24 -0.65 24.25 29.25 129K 93K 21.92
Still in the pattern even with the drop Monday.
MDC 07/05 cup hdl 51.3 -1.14 53.21 63.85 283K 194K 49.49
NCC 04/30 cup hdl 33.31 +0.26 31.42 37.25 1.4M 1.2M 29.75
Not bad; good volume.
NCOG 06/22 Put 19.02 -0.75 21.3 18.04 94K 226K 24
Falling again.
NOC 07/06 Test 50 120.3 -3.8 0 0 1.6M 1.3M 0
Back below the 50 day MVA on rising volume, but not a breakdown yet.
NWRE 06/26 cup hdl 10.73 -0.16 11.2 13.55 88K 160K 10.35
Holding up well.
ORB 06/04 cup hdl 6.66 -0.74 8.02 11.94 674K 342K 7.25
PEET 06/18 A Wedge 16.5 -0.4 18.35 22 84K 243K 16.75
Hugging the 50 day MVA.
PG 07/05 Put 90.35 +0.47 89.48 85.25 2.8M 3.5M 83.22
PHLY 07/01 Test BO 43.32 -1.53 46.25 52.25 84K 81K 42.50
So much for Friday's move off the 50 day MVA.
PTEK 07/02 Test BO 5.72 +0.04 5.76 7.99 500K 284K 5.24
Making the move on some better volume, but not a clean break today.
PTSI 06/24 Flat 25.97 +1.27 26.65 31.98 31K 60K 24.20
Recovered nicely. Still in the pattern.
QLGC 07/06 Test 18 38.52 -1.36 0 0 10M 11M 0
RCII 07/06 Cup 54.63 -0.36 0 0 123K 386K 0
RITA 05/28 Cup 9.55 +0.05 10.1 13.9 97K 104K 9.39
Continuing to hold above the 50 day MVA.
RML 07/02 Flat 17.9 -0.25 19.37 23.25 124K 147K 18.01
Slipped below the 50 day MVA on rising volume. Still in the pattern.
ROOM 07/05 Put 45.51 +1.11 44.35 38.85 823K 928K 46.25
Ran into the 200 day, traded over it, but closed below it. May be ready to fall.
SAM 06/12 cup hdl 15.85 +0.05 16.85 20.5 26K 36K 15.45
SIE 06/11 Test 18 21.08 +0.77 21.1 25.45 224K 263K 19.62
Bouncing nicely.
SNIC 05/30 A Wedge 8.25 +0.19 8.2 11 195K 324K 6.95
SNS 04/12 Test BO 14.42 +0.42 14.8 18 49K 111K 13.76
Okay, getting the test of the 50 day MVA that looks as if it might be the last chance to exit.
SNS 04/10 Dbl btm 14.42 +0.42 14.65 18 49K 111K 13.76
SRCL 06/22 Test BO 33.11 -0.46 38.5 45 323K 370K 35.8
TEN 06/29 BO 7.97 +0.62 6.71 9.35 436K 199K 6.24
Nice. Gapped higher on strong volume after last week's buy.
TSN 05/22 Test BO 13.47 -0.41 15.15 18 904K 1M 14.50
Holding at 13.50, but gave up Friday's move. Not good. On any bounce Tuesday we will see if it can get to 14; if not and no volume, we will exit.
TSN 05/11 Test BO 13.47 -0.41 14.5 17.5 904K 1M 13.48
UNP 06/22 Cup 62.89 -0.56 64.9 73 1.1M 1.2M 60.36
USPH 06/19 cup hdl 17.1 -0.32 20.05 25 87K 101K 18.65
USPH 06/08 Flat 17.1 -0.32 19.1 24.85 87K 101K 17.25
WM 07/06 Cup 37.58 +0.01 0 0 3.1M 3.6M 0
WTW 05/23 Test BO 42.45 -0.25 43.7 50 738K 287K 40.64
Doji above the 18 day MVA on strong volume. May be ready to move.
YCC 06/27 Test BO 26.38 +0.43 27.3 32.75 194K 407K 25
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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