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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: NWRE blasted off on good volume. ENC moving up on very solid volume.
Tuesday plays:
IRN: Bumped higher, but not making the breakout yet.
LLL: Dumped lower on strong, above average volume as we wanted.
CHUX: Not bad; testing lower in the handle on rising though still below average volume.
Best Plays:
1) DNA: Heading lower
2) ABCW: Looks ready.
3) Watchlist/continuing: HTLD and INLD
New Plays:
Upside:
SLGN (Silgan Holdings--$42.14; +1.43; no options): Packaging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slgn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Got to move all of those goods consumers are buying, and SLGN is showing a nice, 11-week cup with handle pattern, ready to break to a new high. Volume was strong today as the stock moved up towards the breakout of the pattern. Accumulation is solid in this base with accumulation weeks leading distribution weeks 3 to 1. Relative strength is excellent as the stock holds up in a bullish pattern as the large caps tank.
Volume: 157.1K Avg Volume: 121.772K
BUY POINT: $43.25 Volume=185K Target=$51.95 Stop=$38.55
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/slgn.html
Downside:
DNA (Genentech--$27.15; -2.10; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dna.html
STATUS: Put. Biotechs are having a hard time shaking off the dips, and DNA joined the crowd, heading to a new closing low Tuesday on rising, above average volume. Why look at a new low? New lows lead to lower lows. It may try to test back up toward the 28 level first after such a strong move down, but we are willing to take at least some positions a further move down.
Volume: 3.544M Avg Volume: 3.344M
BUY POINT: $26.95 Volume=3M Target=$22.95 Stop=$30.50
POSITION: DNA TG - Aug. $35 put (-72 delta) OR DNA UG - Sept. $35 put (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/dna.html
Revisited:
ABCW (Anchor Bancorp--$23.42; +0.08; no options): Savings & Loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abcw.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Blasted off the last session of June on a very high volume breakout, and has tested lower the past week on declining volume. That is just what you like to see. Tuesday volume moved back to above average levels as the stock showed a doji that tested the 18 day MVA on the low (23.13) and 24 on the high. That is a shooting star doji and is indicative of a potential move higher. Getting ready for the move, and savings and loans are in good patterns.
Volume: 68.3K Avg Volume: 52.636K
BUY POINT: $24.12 Volume=78K Target=$29 Stop=$22.35
POSITION: Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/abcw.html
BLI (Big Lots--$18.65; +0.65; optionable): Discount retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bli.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. BLI made a big move in late June, but then immediately tested back to the 50 day MVA in the first part of July. Volume shot up on the test of the 50 day MVA 4 sessions back and it has moved higher on steadily rising volume, moving well Tuesday on rising, above average trade. It hit 19 on the high and pulled back; 19 is acting as some resistance. The action was based on some good retail preannouncements, and for new positions moving forward we are looking for a break over 19.10 on continued above average volume.
Volume: 1.035M Avg Volume: 725.59K
BUY POINT: New positions: $19.10 Volume=750K Target=$22 (initial). Stop=$17.30
POSITION: BLI JW - Oct. $17.50 call (61 delta) and/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bli.html
PORTFOLIOS: Due to subscriber requests, we are merging the portfolios into one Member Portfolio controlled by the subscribers with periodic surveys on the stocks desired. We had a big response over the weekend and will be putting the new Member Portfolio together soon. If you have not done so, get your choices in now.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CUB, EBAY, HOTT; LOW, NOC, PG, QLGC, RCII, SRCL, WM
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
EBAY 07/02 Test 50 57.05 +0.81 57.95 63 8.7M 6M 57
Being added to the S&P 500 and was up $3 after hours. That puts it back over the 50 day MVA that it broke Monday and could not move over Tuesday during the regular session.
HOTT 07/06 Test 50 27.11 +0.41 0 0 882K 654K 0
Shot up to 28 on the high but gave back almost $1 of that move. Volume was good as it continued to move higher, today in response to the good retail news.
PG 07/05 Put 87.9 -2.45 89.48 85.25 3.5M 3.5M 83.22
Tanking as it forms the last part of the right shoulder to the head and shoulders pattern. Volume ran up to average levels.
Continuing/Watchlist:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol AvgV Stop
ABCW 07/09 Test BO 23.42 +0.08 24.12 29 68K 53K 22.35
ABCW 06/20 A Wedge 23.42 +0.08 23.35 27.55 68K 53K 21.65
ACN 05/11 Put 16.6 -0.97 19.7 15.65 3.9M 3.5M 21.30
Moved lower and closer to the target. Anything close to the target works.
AVY 06/22 Put 60.1 -1.43 63.49 59 335K 405K 66
Tanking close to the target as well.
AXP 05/08 cup hdl 36.16 -0.84 43.53 52 4.7M 4.9M 40.48
AYI 07/05 cup hdl 17.1 -0.05 18.7 22.44 33K 97K 16.95
Big shooting star doji on the 18 day MVA. Not bad and getting ready.
BLI 06/11 Test BO 18.65 +0.65 18.5 22 1M 726K 17.30
BWA 06/08 Put 56.25 -1.43 59.99 55 320K 354K 63
Tanking on rising volume.
BZH 06/18 Put 74.65 -0.75 75.95 72 529K 517K 81
Tapped close to the target and rebounded. Still think it will fall but may want to take gains anywhere near 72.50 to 72.75.
BZH 06/03 Put 74.65 -0.75 74.45 70.45 529K 517K 77
CHGO 05/28 Test 18 9.35 -0.59 7.75 10 251K 262K 7.21
Stronger drop to the 18 day MVA but volume still below average.
CHGO 05/09 Test 50 9.35 -0.59 7.3 10 251K 262K 7.02
CHUX 07/03 cup hdl 24.02 -0.48 26.1 31.34 114K 161K 23.95
CLF 05/15 Test BO 26.95 +0.7 28.2 34 69K 81K 26.90
Moving up over the 50 day MVA on rising volume. Decent, but a long way from redemption.
CNI 06/26 cup hdl 51.71 -0.59 52.9 63.25 431K 436K 49.55
Still in the handle though fell Tuesday on rising volume.
COH 06/03 Put 24.63 -1.11 24.82 22.51 1.3M 536K 25.55
Tanking but a long way to go to the target. If it gets back to 24 and holds we will exit.
CUB 07/06 Cup 20.7 +0.12 0 0 92K 154K 0
DESI 05/29 Test 18 4.97 -0.12 7.25 11 72K 140K 6.74
DLTR 05/09 Flat 33.31 -2.88 38.95 33 3.8M 1.2M 36.22
Murdered Tuesday on strong volume. That test of the 50 day MVA ended.
DNA 07/09 Put 27.15 -2.1 26.95 22.95 3.5M 3.3M 30.50
DROOY 05/21 A Wedge 4.49 +0.34 4.85 7 3.8M 4.5M 4.30
Good day for gold and DROOY was up, but it is making lower highs right now.
EBAY 07/02 Test 50 57.05 +0.81 57.95 63 8.7M 6M 57
ELK 06/01 DB hdl 26.2 -0.4 27.46 34.96 164K 99K 24.95
No, no, no. Below the 50 day MVA on rising volume. Exit.
ENC 05/06 Rv H&S 9.15 +0.28 7.3 9.5 58K 38K 6.79
EXAS 06/15 cup hdl 13.18 +0.18 15.3 18.5 75K 131K 12
FDP 06/26 Test 18 25.6 -0.18 27.1 32.5 196K 265K 25.25
FDP 05/21 A Wedge 25.6 -0.18 24.75 29.7 196K 265K 23.02
FHCC 06/11 cup hdl 26.8 -0.86 29.85 36 717K 887K 27.76
Definitely the wrong way; forming a head and shoulders. Not worth the risk.
FORG 06/15 Test BO 4.68 -0.02 5.15 6.85 50K 157K 4.20
FRX 07/05 Put 70.01 -3.34 72.45 68 2M 1.3M 75
Plunged and looks as if it will make the target this time around.
HARB 06/22 BO 24.15 +0.15 24.11 29 31K 52K 21.75
HLT 05/06 Put 13.09 -0.06 14.3 12 1.6M 2M 15.80
HLYW 05/29 Test 18 19 -0.19 19.25 27 434K 705K 17.9
Trying to hang on but now below the 50 day MVA. Will give it some room.
HOTT 07/06 Test 50 27.11 +0.41 0 0 882K 654K 0
HOTT 06/12 Test BO 27.11 +0.41 27.05 32 882K 654K 24.64
HOTT 05/29 Test BO 27.11 +0.41 26.5 32 882K 654K 24.64
HTLD 07/02 cup hdl 22.27 +0.35 24.19 29 100K 239K 22
Another doji above the 18 day MVA. Looks ready to move up or tank.
INLD 05/18 cup hdl 3.2 +0.02 3.1 4.75 192K 761K 2.50
Moving up toward the breakout but will need some volume.
IRN 07/08 BO 11.75 +0.25 12.05 14.74 63K 68K 10.45
Not a bad move. Getting close.
IVGN 07/01 Put 29.28 -1.03 28.65 23.55 814K 1.1M 32.55
Heading lower, but not with a lot of pop.
KKD 07/05 Put 32.7 -0.3 33.75 29.5 485K 560K 34.50
Another doji below the 18 day MVA. Not tanking with the market, but we will give it some more time.
KMI 06/19 Put 39.42 -0.23 40.75 37 688K 700K 43.25
Doji below the 18 day MVA, unable to break through. Looks ready to fall and needs to do it.
KMI 05/25 Put 39.42 -0.23 44.75 40.25 688K 700K 41.62
LBIX 05/06 Flat 3.07 +0.17 1.95 3.5 119K 122K 1.58
Gapped higher one more time but on low volume.
LLL 07/08 Put 46.7 -2.35 48.97 45.25 3.5M 1.5M 52.55
LOW 07/06 Test 50 44.65 -1.6 0 0 4.1M 4M 0
MANT 07/03 Cup 23.75 +0.51 24.25 29.25 174K 94K 21.92
Still holding well in the pattern.
MDC 07/05 cup hdl 50.65 -0.65 53.21 63.85 437K 196K 49.49
Went to the door to breakout and then sold hard Tuesday on very strong volume. Not good handle action.
NCC 04/30 cup hdl 32.51 -0.49 31.42 37.25 1.2M 1.2M 29.75
It too reversed from the breakout point to settle back in the pattern again.
NCOG 06/22 Put 18.88 -0.14 21.3 18.04 196K 224K 24
NOC 07/06 Test 50 121.04 +0.74 0 0 1.7M 1.3M 0
NWRE 06/26 cup hdl 12.13 +1.39 11.2 13.55 1.1M 159K 10.35
Blasted off on huge volume.
ORB 06/04 cup hdl 6.31 -0.35 8.02 11.94 1.1M 348K 7.25
Wow, what a plunge. Never hit the buy.
PEET 06/18 A Wedge 15.65 -0.85 18.35 22 202K 242K 16.75
PEET has it in for us it seems. Good accumulation, but it tanked Tuesday on rising volume, undercutting the 50 day MVA on rising volume. Looking for a test for a better exit point.
PG 07/05 Put 87.9 -2.45 89.48 85.25 3.5M 3.5M 83.22
PHLY 07/01 Test BO 42.5 -0.82 46.25 52.25 37K 82K 42.50
Not getting any better as it gives back the entire breakout. Time to leave.
PTEK 07/02 Test BO 5.8 +0.08 5.76 7.99 322K 291K 5.24
Trying the move, but no volume held us back on new positions.
PTSI 06/24 Flat 25.4 -0.57 26.65 31.98 46K 60K 24.20
Still hanging in there.
QLGC 07/06 Test 18 37.51 -1.01 0 0 9.6M 11M 0
RCII 07/06 Cup 52.8 -1.83 0 0 185K 385K 0
RITA 05/28 Cup 8.75 -0.8 10.1 13.9 104K 105K 9.39
Abrupt break below the 50 day MVA. Could not muster the continued breakout and this is what it gets you.
RML 07/02 Flat 17.85 -0.05 19.37 23.25 97K 147K 18.01
ROOM 07/05 Put 44.83 -0.68 44.35 38.85 441K 928K 46.25
SAM 06/12 cup hdl 15.8 -0.05 16.85 20.5 21K 34K 15.45
SIE 06/11 Test 18 20.75 -0.33 21.1 25.45 300K 266K 19.62
Took the day off.
SLGN 07/09 A Wedge 42.14 +1.43 43.25 51.95 157K 122K 38.55
SNIC 05/30 A Wedge 8.24 -0.01 8.2 11 159K 325K 6.95
SNS 04/12 Test BO 14.6 +0.18 14.8 18 89K 111K 13.76
Rallied back to the 50 day MVA on some better volume, though still low. Needs to hold here and keep moving. If it stalls we exit.
SNS 04/10 Dbl btm 14.6 +0.18 14.65 18 89K 111K 13.76
SRCL 06/22 Test BO 32.32 -0.79 38.5 45 275K 372K 35.8
TEN 06/29 BO 7.72 -0.25 6.71 9.35 346K 204K 6.24
Pulled back a bit on some lighter volume after the strong move. Still in good shape.
TSN 05/22 Test BO 13.03 -0.44 15.15 18 1.1M 1M 14.50
It was time to leave, falling further on rising volume.
TSN 05/11 Test BO 13.03 -0.44 14.5 17.5 1.1M 1M 13.48
UNP 06/22 Cup 61.87 -1.02 64.9 73 1.4M 1.2M 60.36
UNP 06/12 Cup 61.87 -1.02 64.08 73 1.4M 1.2M 61
WM 07/06 Cup 36.35 -1.23 0 0 3.1M 3.5M 0
WTW 05/23 Test BO 41.6 -0.85 43.7 50 1.1M 296K 40.64
Wasn't ready. Fell back to test the 50 day MVA as volume shot up. There is support at the 50 day MVA, so we see if it can bounce form here.
YCC 06/27 Test BO 26.36 -0.02 27.3 32.75 139K 408K 25
Holding up okay.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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