Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 05/24/2010
GLD (Gold ETF--$116.84; +1.62; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gld.html
After Hours: $116.83
STATUS: Looks as if GLD is coming back to life after a weeklong (actually a 7 day job) pullback following the move to a new all-time high. It could not hold the near support or the December 2009 peak, but instead came back to the 50 day EMA Friday, gapping to that point, showing a doji, and then gapping back up on Monday. If it can continue to move higher it is in a good risk/reward position for us to move in and see if we can catch another leg higher as GLD moves off of the 50 day EMA support level.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/GLD.wmv
Volume: 14.337M Avg Volume: 17.504M
BUY POINT: $117.21 Volume=38M Target=$122.24 Stop=$114.31
POSITION: GLD 10H116.00 - Aug. $116c (55 delta)
Play Date: 05/24/2010
IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$64.20; -0.87; optionable)
After Hours: $63.79
STATUS: ABCD. The small caps are setting up, and now we will see if they can deliver upside. A solid run from February through late April is being tested in that familiar stair-step back, holding the January peak on the May 6 flash crash, bouncing, and then coming back this past week to make a lower low at the 200 day SMA, bouncing off that level Friday. The pattern is set up and now we see if IWM can deliver upside with a continued bounce as seen on Friday. The market is still treacherous with a lot of downside expectations, but if you see these patterns and they start to move as expected, then you have to move in as well.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/IWM.wmv
Volume: 76.023M Avg Volume: 73.884M
BUY POINT: $64.94 Volume=100M Target=$73.95 Stop=$62.64
POSITION: IWM 10H64.00 - Aug. $64c (55 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/24/2010
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$24.65; -0.28; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
After Hours: $24.73
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: NVLS looks promising here with strong upside volume kicking in at an important support level that has held many times over the past decade. Of course it didn't hold in the 2008 bear market, but it has recovered the level and is acting as if it does not want to let it go. After a rally from February through late April, NVLS tested back with the market, but during the May twin dips it has tested back to the 61% Fibonacci retracement level, forming a double bottom at that point. Something of a head and shoulders from late March, but with the longer term support and the double bottom at the Fibonacci retracement level as well as the spotty track record of head and shoulders patterns, we are looking for NVLS to break to the upside. Friday NVLS was surging on volume. It came back well off the high but it also held onto a good chunk of the move. Monday NVLS faded slightly on lower, below average volume. Still solid, and looking for NVLS to continue higher, and as it does we are ready to move in if it can make that move stick.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NVLS.wmv
Volume: 3.097M Avg Volume: 3.112M
BUY POINT: $25.21 Volume=4M Target=$28.95 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: NVLS 10I24.00 - Sept. $24c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/24/2010
PII (Polaris--$58.36; +1.02; optionable): ATV's, PWC's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pii.html
After Hours: $59.13
EARNINGS: 07/12/2010
STATUS: PII remains solid, testing its 50 day EMA last week, holding and bouncing off that level Friday. Monday PII was up again, gapping higher Monday and surging off that gap. It could not hold the move, or at least a lot of it, but it did maintain the gap, so we are watching this pattern to see if PII can continue higher off this level and give us the entry. Very solid action as is often the case with PII.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PII.wmv
Volume: 1.381M Avg Volume: 426.848K
BUY POINT: $58.78 Volume=650K Target=$67.92 Stop=$54.78
POSITION: PII 10I55.00 - Sept. $55c (86 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/24/2010
URI (United Rentals--$11.89; +0.08; optionable): Rental and leasing service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uri.html
After Hours: $11.89
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: ABCD. This is the perfect business for a weaker economy or even a slow recovering economy. The pattern is also a nice one as well, the classic ABCD stair-step after a big surge in late April to early May. Last week URI tested the 50 day EMA and has held, making a lower low on the pullback from the B point while also holding inside the strong 'A' move higher. As URI makes the move higher and can make it stick, we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/URI.wmv
Volume: 1.6M Avg Volume: 1.843M
BUY POINT: $12.23 Volume=2.2M Target=$14.69 Stop=$11.44
POSITION: URI 10I10.00 - Sept. $10c (73 delta) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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