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world stock market, us stock market
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5/25/2010 Investment House Daily
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Technical Summary, Economy, and the Next Session. This allows you to choose the segments you are interested in without having to find the segment in a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
MARKET OVERVIEW
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TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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TO VIEW THE ECONOMY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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SUMMARY:
- And yet another sharp, big intraday reversal after SP500 undercuts the February low.
- The markets remain in turmoil: hiccup or precursor to a double dip?
- Consumer confidence is rising into the turmoil of the markets. It will be tested again by these events.
- Retail remains solid when little else is.
- Market gives back the February to April rally. Expecting a bounce (again), but this far expectations have only led to disappointment.
Another new selloff low, another reversal (number four), a new outcome?
It was another sharp and relatively massive intraday reversal on the market with SP500 understood cutting its February low. The SP500 has now given back 100% (and more) of the rally from February. To date, this rally came off the biggest decline in the shortest period of time for the rally off of the March low. Thus the quality of the move higher has slowly regressed over the past several months. After that low in March of 2009, the market posted a very strong move. It came back in June and July, posted another strong move into the fourth quarter where it took a small breather, and then it rallied into the new year. That set off the biggest decline of the entire rally in terms of how far it fell in the period of time that it fell. Again it has moved up and now has shown the biggest decline since the rally's inception.
There was no new news to set the futures off to a massively sharply lower open. It was the same old stories getting rehashed, yet we are more worrisome than before. There was a story about Germany perhaps banning short selling on more than the original financial institutions it imposed a ban on. That raised fears that the rest of Europe would have to do the same, and that freezes up the markets. If people cannot sell short, then that is a problem. The market makers' job is to provide liquidity for government bonds, private bonds, corporate bonds, etc. If they cannot sell those short as soon as they take a position, they have to go short. What Germany and some other EU countries want to do is effectively prevent them from trading. Of course the government always screws up the markets when it gets involved. It does not understand how they work, and thus its "fixes" cause a myriad of unforeseen problems. That is what likely set the markets off on Tuesday. There are serious problems with the socialist countries in the EU that have for too long spent other people's money. They have a failed system. History has clearly shown that the communist and socialist models simply do not work well (and do not work at all in some cases.)
This causes some to look at the US debt and say our system is not working either. It is a massive amount of debt, but it is not the system that is problem; the problem is trying to emulate what they are doing in Europe. The more we have moved toward Europe, the more problems we have had with our economy. We have flashes of greatness where we go back to what made us great -- the old "dance with who brung ya" mentality. It worked back in the 80's, through the 90's, and into 2000. As soon as we would make the money, however, we would spend it on new entitlements. When the economy inevitably turns down, you cannot pay for these new promises and entitlements that were most recently made in the last great boom. That makes the recessions all the greater, and that is what we are suffering through now. It is not our system but rather our spending that is getting us in trouble. Europe's problem is spending piled on top of a system that simply cannot produce the output of the US.
The futures were massively lower, and pushed the Dow down 200 points premarket. The market started lower with a gap on the SP500 and an immediate selloff through the first 20 minutes of action. The SP500 undercut its intraday and closing low in February, and it gave back 100% of that rally. There is often a reversal when a market, index, or stock undercuts a key point. The shorts cover -- figuring it is as good as it can get at the moment -- and drive stocks back to the upside. That is what happened today. An early selloff, but note it was not a grand rally right away. Stocks bounced back up, but it took a long time for them to actually hit the gas in the last two hours of the session and rally up to eliminate the losses. They were hefty losses indeed: 268 points on the Dow from the low to the close, 70 points on NASDAQ, and 33 points on the SP500. It put them back in good stead. It did not get them all positive, but the market was basically flat at the close. It was quite a feat given the sharp selloff on the open. That brings up questions of the quality of the move. Was it that great? It took a long time for the buyers to step back in; it was not a knifepoint turn and a rally back up. It took the whole day to get there, and that makes me think that there was short covering at the root of the move once more. Of course it was -- you cannot have the kind of selloff we had in May without getting short-covering rallies. We had one last Monday, last Wednesday, last Friday, and then again on Tuesday. We have had one every other day. We have been looking for bounces but have been disappointed. That makes me think of the old adage "Those who expect nothing are never disappointed." I am looking for another bounce because there is some serious support here. At least it is a serious level that the market either has to rally or it does not. There was that impressive rally off the lows, but was it that impressive? We will look at some of the internals shortly.
OTHER MARKETS.
Dollar. The dollar is strong (1.2343 Euros versus 1.2373 Monday). During the morning session premarket, the dollar was at 1.2217, so it was much stronger intraday. As it peeled back, the market did find some strength. The dollar is strong for the same reasons it has been strong all along. Worries about Europe have been hammering the Euro and the pound and, when they get sold, people put money into the dollar. Apparently people are putting money into the dollar versus a lot of other currencies in the world as well. There is a fear that if Europe goes down, a lot of other countries will be hurt. That makes the US look like a much better place to put your money since its economy is still improving.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Bonds. Bonds were all over the map. The US 10 year closed stronger (3.17% versus 3.21% Monday), but it was way off the high. Premarket it was 3.12%, and it got down to 3.11% at one point. Diving lower, almost 3%. Incredible moves in bonds for the same reason as the dollar: It is a flight to safety. The European bond yields are rising and their spreads are widening. Credit default swap prices are higher and their spreads are widening. LIBOR continues to move higher at 0.54% on Tuesday versus 0.51% on Monday. I recently wrote about the importance of LIBOR, the swap spreads, bonds spreads, and the corporate bonds spreads. They are widening because it is going to be the worst month for corporate debt placement in a decade. We are having some of the same problems we had in 2008, but they are just not of the same magnitude -- or at least not all of them. They are heading that way, however.
There are disturbing trends. Mr. Mishkin said there are very perturbing trends in the various financial markets that are leaning back toward 2008. They are not nearly there in a relative term but are picking up the pace. We saw how fast they can get there. If something breaks, then you have a problem. Just think of the trillion dollar baby supposedly supporting the entirety of the EU. What would happen if Spain and Portugal turn over and default one day? A regional bank in Spain had to get taken over, which is not a big deal, but the market is rife with fear over what could happen. It upsets the investors. If there is a real default, then you would see these credit default swaps explode overnight as they did in 2008. That is why we are walking a tight rope. The US is looking better, but we are so dependent on the EU because we have this thing called a "global economy" -- whatever that means. One economy relies on the other, and that is the way we have grown up over the past 50 years. We rely on each other to buy and sell our goods. When one or two (or an entire union) hiccups and falls, that has an inevitable ripple effect on the rest of the planet. The US economy is still in improvement mode and pretty strong. It is not going to just take your money from you like what may happen in China if you decided to invest in those bonds. That makes the US bonds rise.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg
Gold. Gold got back in on the action Monday with a strong surge higher, and it was up again on Tuesday. Not nearly as big, but posting another gain ($1,199.50, +5.50). There was worry about deflation for the last week and a half, and that pushed gold down. There is still a worry about deflation, but what happened? The US economy reported more decent economic data Monday, Tuesday, and late last week. That killed the deflation worries in the US after CPI came in at -0.1 just over a week ago. Now the old fear factor is coming in that the world governments will have to print more and more money. That is an inflation worry, and thus gold becomes more valuable and bounces. It is not a huge bounce -- still below the prior all-time peak from December of 2009 -- so there are questions as to what it will do. It was good enough for us to start moving into more GLD positions.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Oil. Oil is skidding lower. If the EU is still in trouble, then it is still skidding lower as well. Another reversal, perhaps? Here we are at the bottom of the seven-month range. It did sell to a new low on this selloff intraday, but it did reverse. It closed down ($69.43, -0.78 after hours) but it is still in the range and could have an oversold bounce. It is ripe just as the US stock markets are ripe for an oversold bounce. Does that mean it will last? No. It only means it is an oversold bounce. It got sold too much, and the same patterns and fundamental reasons for it to be weak are still there. After a bounce it should fall right back down if nothing else changes.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
Frankly, what will change the problems in Europe? Europe has a much higher risk of something very bad happening than something very good happening. What is the likelihood of the trillion dollars really having an impact? We are not hearing the EU or the ECB doing what they need to do -- what we did in the US -- which is to guarantee everything. We said we would guarantee it all. Whether or not anyone believed it at first, the swap spreads shrunk, the prices went down, LIBOR fell, and everyone trusted each other again. Europe will have to do something like that. The trillion dollars helped for a bit, but it did not break the cycle. As many say, myself included, it bought the EU time, but it is not doing anything else after buying that time. That is a dangerous game. That makes it all the more expensive and difficult to get anything done if the momentum dissipates before they announce the next round of ideas to bolster the PIIGS. Right now we are looking at all of Europe. Either that or the EU will break up and the second tier countries go down while the first tier countries (such as Germany and France) realize they just have to survive. It could be similar to when George Costanza in Seinfeld smelled smoke at a kid's birthday party and ran over the clown and the grandma in a walker to save himself. I think that might be what you see with respect to the EU as Germany and France run to save themselves versus being dragged down by those who were profligate and looked for someone else's money to bail them out.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
INTERNALS
Breadth. The internals were not bad at all. We always see a lag in breadth. In the NASDAQ it was 2:1 decliners over advancers even with the reversal. Of course NASDAQ still finished down 23 points on the session, so having decliners down was not bad. It was massively bad in the middle of the day at -7:1 and worse. The NYSE roughly mirrors NASDAQ at -1.9:1 on breadth. It was massively worse intraday, but the reversal helped ease that negative breadth.
Volume. Volume was interesting. 2.8B shares, up 40% on NASDAQ. Up 43% to 1.9B shares on the NYSE. This was after a very lackluster Monday trade where NASDAQ volume actually fell below average for the first time in months. That action on Monday was not that disconcerting; this selloff and reversal is what you like to see. I like to see that volume pumping back up above average. I can handle that. It is not as high as it was last Thursday and Friday or on the May 6th and 7th flash crash, but it is not doing badly. It is nice to see it bounce back up sharply on these selloffs and reversals. It is the same thing on the NYSE as we watch the reach way down buy the SP500. Look at the volume spike as it reversed and moved back up to just fractionally positive. Very good to see that kind of volume accompany a reversal.
Of course we have seen it before. We saw good volume on Monday a week ago. It was not head and shoulders above the rest of the volume, so maybe that is the difference this time. Same thing last Wednesday, but it was better volume. This is really impressive volume, so we will see if it actually makes the turn. I like to see strong internals -- at least there is something positive going on.
CHARTS
SP500. SP500 undercut the February low, both closing and intraday, and the reversal to positive. It was fractionally positive at 0.38 points, but a gain is a gain. This one may be more important than all the others along the way. The January peak was important, no doubt. There was the long-term support level at 1075 that it went through. That was important, but now it has gone below the most important recent level -- the February low -- and it has reversed. It has set the stage once more for an oversold bounce. I am not saying this is going to be the end of this selloff; I highly doubt it will be. Looking at the action with the January peak, then up to the April peak and then the rollover, you are going to see a bounce here. It may be on this one or on the next bounce attempt. You will see a bounce back up toward the January high, and then you will see what looks like a head and shoulders pattern forming. That could be a rollover, and then we will all get worried about that. That happened a few times back in 2009. It looked like things would roll over in a head and shoulders, and they either never did or only did a bit but reversed right back on all the liquidity.
This will be a bigger version of that. There was the head and shoulders in April through early July, and of course the market rallied right out of that. There was something similar in late 2009 and early 2010, and it rallied right out of that. This is a bigger model, and this will probably bounce up to the 1165-1170 range. Then it may struggle and come back down, raising the specter of the head and shoulder and a huge rollover. It can happen. Lots of major tops are put in by head and shoulders patterns, but we cannot worry about that today. It will not do any good. We are looking to play this move back to the upside. After undercutting that and the buyers running in and sellers running out, it looks like it will try to do that. There are the quality issues I brought up before. They did not come rushing right back in, but you have to give them credit for showing up. That is what we have to go with right now. Take a little grain of salt, but you have to look at the pattern. Hard to argue against a high-volume reversal even if it did come late in the session.
NASDAQ. The NASDAQ did not undercut any February lows, but it did gap lower and rally off of that level. It did not make it back to positive but came close. It is still below the 200 day EMA, but now back over that longer term support level. We will see if that can hold. The pattern is ugly. If I saw this, I would not look into buying it other than if it got too oversold and, because SP500 may bounce, it can bounce back up to its January peak as well. That is when it gets interesting because it has the same type of formation as SP500.
SP600. SP600 held its January peak and undercut it. It held the 200 day EMA, more or less, and then reversed. It still did not make it back to positive, down 0.44% on the session, but it was a heck of a recovery and a nice doji at support. Given that it was a leader on the way up, it looks pretty good. It will obviously want to ride along with the other indices if they put in an oversold bounce.
SOX. Semiconductors had a decent day and were up on the session. 0.58% and they actually reversed and scored a nice gain. Never came close to the February lows, undercutting. A little hiccup in late February and this December consolidation, but it found support at a long-term support level at 335. It has held there quite nicely, and it put in a nice upside move on Tuesday. It looks like it has some legs to rally back up to this January peak along with the rest of the indices. It will be interesting to see how the semiconductors perform because they are showing more snap and pop than the other indices.
LEADERSHIP
I am not going to get too excited about leadership because there is not a lot of it. It remains fragmented and dispersed, but retailers show the kind of leadership that the market needs from more sectors. Maybe the rest of the market will branch out and follow retail. I am not sure that will be the case because the patterns have been damaged. It will take some rebuilding to develop new patterns that they can rally off of.
Retail. TJX posted a nice gain on the day with some very good volume. There was a nice, orderly pullback, and now it is rallying back to the upside. ROST had a nice bounce off of its pullback. It looks to be in the position to make the break higher to at least challenge the prior peaks. If you look around at other stocks, you see the same type of action in retail. DSW had a nice bounce on volume as well. DLTR is rallying once more and moving to a new rally closing high. Retail is somewhat bifurcated. If you look at some of the higher end retailers such as SKS, there are possibilities. It has a potential ABCD pattern and it is trying to move up. Maybe it can, but they are not as in good a shape as a lot of the discounters. Those are performing much better than the traditional big names. JWN is trying to bounce, but its pattern is not nearly as good as the heavy discounters.
Semiconductors. Semiconductors are not making big moves, but they are holding up well and in position to move if the market puts in a bounce. LSCC is in very good shape at the 50 day EMA still. It has not made the move yet. NVLS had a pickup in volume as it gapped and reversed, holding the prior low in early May. There is potential there. RMBS sold off but reversed on solid volume. SNDK bounced nicely off the 50 day EMA the past few sessions, and it is moving on higher volume.
You have retail and semiconductors. Outside of that, there are scattered stocks here and there that are posting leadership. Maybe I will stumble across others tonight that are starting to move, but the usual suspects do not look so good. We could get bounces out of them, however. Lots of stocks have fallen down to long term and important support levels. They can provide us a nice bounce, and we can play that bounce. We will not necessarily get married to them on this move because the market overall looks like refried beans. You realize you get bounces all out of those, but you do not necessarily get strong moves out of them to the upside. At least not lasting strong moves. You get very meteoric shots higher that can burn out quickly, but they can give nice gains as they make the run to the upside.
THE ECONOMY
What is this market action telling you vis- -vis the economy?
Policies are not conducive to a strong recovery, but more of a Great Depression recovery.
Consumer Confidence rallying, but is it rallying at the peak of economic activity?
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/Economy.wmv
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX. The VIX spiked well over 45, moving in on 50 last Friday. It started to sell back the past couple of sessions; indeed it gapped higher on Tuesday, but it could not hold the move and closed lower. You often see big, intraday spikes or gaps higher and selloffs in the VIX. That is volatility by definition. It builds rapidly and it dissipates rapidly. Typically, there are massive spikes. There was a close at 45.79, and usually there are not closes that high. On Friday it rallied to 48.20 on the high before reversing. These big spikes sow the seeds of a rebound. They occur, and then a rebound takes place down the road. It can be several sessions or a couple of weeks depending on how bad the selling is and how violent the market is at this point. This is not anywhere near the way it was in 2008. We are not going to get nearly the spikes or nearly the time required to make the turn. Still, despite all of the gloom, this is an ordinary selloff. It is an ordinary pullback to test what is an extraordinary, liquidity-driven run higher off of the March 2009 lows. This is the Fed pumping in trillions of dollars, buying troubled assets, and maybe some stimulus. This is a liquidity-driven move. The economy has improved -- it has not been a great improvement, but it is improving nonetheless. It has to. If you throw that much money at it and things get as bad as they where (a literal standstill in 2008), you will have economic recovery once the freeze is over.
VIX: 34.61; -3.71
VXN: 36.28; -3.56
VXO: 32.83; -2.36
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.14; +0.2
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 43.8% versus 47.2%. Continuing the drop though not quite as precipitous as the prior week that saw a fall from 56.0%. Looks as if that was the high on this move, falling short of the 60% to 65% considered bearish, but not that short. As with horseshoes, it was close enough. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. Over the 35% threshold level below suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 24.7% versus 24.7%. Holding steady after the strong surge higher from 18.7%. Hit a high of 27.8% level on this leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: -2.6 points (-0.12%) to close at 2210.95
Volume: 2.811B (+40.1%)
Up Volume: 1.208B (+660.163M)
Down Volume: 1.639B (+164.575M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.01 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.87 to 1
New Highs: 11 (-4)
New Lows: 180 (+122)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +0.38 points (+0.04%) to close at 1074.03
NYSE Volume: 1.882B (+43.21%)
Up Volume: 942.218M (+624.806M)
Down Volume: 808.103M (-180.647M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.87 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.58 to 1
New Highs: 80 (+26)
New Lows: 207 (+157)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: -22.82 points (-0.23%) to close at 10043.75
Volume DJ30: 317M shares Tuesday versus 211M shares Monday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
WEDNESDAY
Another situation of the old reversal off the lows and set up to make a move higher. Yes, indeed, it has done it again for the fourth time in less than two weeks. The market has undercut a relatively important level and looks ready to bounce. The SP500 definitely looks in shape to make a bounce to the upside. It is certainly primed. If it do not do it now, the issues are really a problem and the market is actually foretelling that things will get much worse down the road regardless of what the US economy is doing. I say that because we have had a "standard correction" right now, and it is time for the market to start putting in a bottom and forming a base. What happens in standard corrections is that there is a sell off -- 10% or so -- then it finds a logical support level and starts holding and building a base off of that. That is what we are seeing at the February low in SP500. It has given back that entire gain, and it is time if for it to start basing out and using this level as support if it is going to hold up. If it instead goes down and follows the Great Depression scenario, then you will see it start to roll back over and head down into the 825 range. Then it will work laterally for years and years with that up and down rotation that does not take it much out of that range. That would surely be a terrible thing.
For now, we are looking to play the bounce to the upside. I do not want to be too morbid tonight. There are stocks that we can play to the upside, such as retail. We took some positions in those, and there are others that will be setting up and moving. You have the stocks that have been doggedly hanging onto important support levels. SP500 is hanging on at a long term important support point as well as the February point. Again, you would expect it to bounce here, so why not a little upside play with one of your ETFs. You can take some calls on the SPY or one of the 2X leveraged plays like we use on the downside sometimes. When you have a potential for a pretty sharp bounce, you want to take advantage of them and cash in on the volatility. Then again, I do not want to get too married to these positions.
We can look for the stocks that have held up in decent patterns all along, such as retail and some of the semiconductors. Look for those that have been beaten down to a support level but can bounce up inside of their range. If they are still holding their range after all of this beating about the head and shoulders, that is a pretty good indication that the range will hold. Inevitably the selling pressure abates -- markets, indices, and stocks come up for breath and have pretty sharp bounces higher. We can play those individual stocks, and we can play the indices as they make those bounces. We have a play on the IWM for instance, the Russell 2000, and we adjusted the buy point on it if we get a bounce to the upside. You can see it is holding at the 200 day EMA. Right below the January peak it is primed to make a bounce maybe toward this early May peak and that is up near 7150. It closed at 6420, and that is not a bad move for a bounce. We are still in the game of playing bounces, and we are still in the game of not getting overly married to any particular position if it shows it might be running out of gas. I want to at least take some of the gain off the table and take the pressure off as to watching it and what we want to do with it.
If we do get a bounce, I anticipate a move up to this May peak. We do not want to start thinking we are going to get higher than that. If we do, that is great, but if not? If we are not expecting it, we will not be disappointed. We have those three areas we can play, and we will continue to do so. We have been picking up good positions along the way. Fortunately a lot of those positions we have taken over the past few days have not eroded to the point where they are broken. They can make nice moves as the market continues. We will see if this reversal is the one with a difference. Have an excellent evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2210.95
Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 2225
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
The 10 day EMA at 2279
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
The 50 day EMA at 2364
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2434 is the May 2010 high
2453 is the August 2008 peak
Support:
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1074.03
Resistance:
1078 is the October range low
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1101 is the October 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 1104
1106 is the September 2008 low
The 10 day EMA at 1106
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 1148
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
Support:
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,043.75
Resistance:
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,270
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 10 day EMA at 10,345
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
The 50 day EMA at 10,680
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
Support:
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
May 24 - Monday
Existing Home Sales, April (10:00): 5.77M actual versus 5.65M expected, 5.36M prior (revised from 5.35M)
May 25 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, March (09:00): 2.4% actual versus 3.0% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.6%)
Consumer Confidence, May (10:00): 63.3 actual versus 58.3 expected, 57.7 prior (revised from 57.9)
FHFA Housing Price I, March (10:00): 0.3% actual versus -0.4% prior (revised from -0.2%)
May 26 - Wednesday
Durable Orders, April (08:30): 1.5% expected, -0.3% prior
Durable Orders ex Trans, April (08:30): 0.7% expected, 3.5% prior
New Home Sales, April (10:00): 425 expected, 411 prior
Crude Inventories, 05/22 (10:30): 0.162M prior
May 27 - Thursday
GDP - Second Estimate, Q1 (08:30): 3.3% expected, 3.2% prior
GDP Deflator - Second iteration, Q1 (08:30): 0.9% expected, 0.9% prior
Initial Claims, 05/22 (08:30): 455K expected, 471K prior
Continuing Claims, 05/22 (08:30): 4600K expected
May 28 - Friday
Personal Income, April (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior
Personal Spending, April (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior
PCE Prices - Core, April (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Chicago PMI, May (09:45): 60.0 expected, 63.8 prior
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, May (09:55): 73.2 expected, 73.3 prior
End part 1 of 3
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