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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 05/25/2010
FCX (Freeport McMoran--$67.62; +2.06; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcx.html
After Hours: $68.23
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: Rolling. Yes, yes we exited FCX after it gapped higher and stalled Monday. It gapped lower but held last week's low and surged back up on stronger, above average volume. That also put FCX back over the January and early February lows that formed that short double bottom. MACD is showing a positive divergence as it is just over the February valley as FCX makes a lower low. As FCX broke back up into the range Tuesday after a short trip below it (no real downside follow through), we are ready to move in again and see if this time FCX can deliver to the upside for us.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/FCX.wmv
Volume: 22.098M Avg Volume: 15.548M
BUY POINT: $68.18 Volume=20M Target=$78.92 Stop=$64.94
POSITION: FCX 10H65.00 - Aug. $65c (62 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/25/2010
RTH (Retail Holders Trust--$96.67; +0.57; optionable)
After Hours: $96.14
STATUS: ABCD. Retail is still the leading sector in the market, so a look at the RTH is worthwhile, particularly given RTH is sporting a solid ABCD pattern and is putting in a short double bottom at the 200 day SMA. Great run from February through late April, then getting caught in the market selling in May and stair stepping back. Gapped lower last week, falling below the May 6 low but holding at the 200 day SMA. It is trying to bounce at that support, and that would form the D point in an ABCD pattern. Gapped to the 200 day SMA on Tuesday and then reversed for a gain on strong, above average volume. If RTH can continue the break higher it is a buy for a run back up toward the top of the pattern near 106.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/RTH.wmv
Volume: 2.947M Avg Volume: 2.204M
BUY POINT: $96.92 Volume=3M Target=$106.94 Stop=$93.48
POSITION: RTH 10J95.00 - Oct. $95c (61 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/25/2010
SCSS (Select Comfort--$9.93; +0.26; optionable): Air beds
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scss.html
After Hours: $9.93
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: Pennant. Yes we closed SCSS last week when it gapped lower and started to fall below the March and April peaks. It was selling but then reversed last Thursday, recovering those levels. It is now pinching off at what looks to be the end of a month-long test back to the 50 day EMA and those prior peaks. Last Thursday saw an undercut and intraday reversal on rising, above average volume. Tuesday SCSS bounces nicely on rising trade. Looking for a break over the down trendline in the pattern to give us the buy. Want to see that break hold into the close to trigger our buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SCSS.wmv
Volume: 572.36K Avg Volume: 746.614K
BUY POINT: $10.09 Volume=900K Target=$11.95 Stop=$9.38
POSITION: SCSS 10I10.00 - Sept. $10c (44 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/25/2010
SNDK (Sandisk--$43.18; +1.37; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sndk.html
After Hours: $43.50
EARNINGS: 04/21/2010
STATUS: Triangle. Looking at a new entry point on this one as SNDK has set up a triangle after a strong break higher in April on its earnings report. Another stock where earnings put a near term cap on an upside run, necessitating a consolidation. Not a bad consolidation at that, this 5 week range with higher lows up the 50 day EMA and lower highs just over 43. Solid, above average volume Tuesday as SNDK reversed from a gap lower, rallying to close just below the top trendline of the pattern. If SNDK can continue the move and make the break through the buy point and hold it, we move in. We can then see how it tests the breakout, and if it holds above the pattern on the test, we can add to the position as it moves back up off that test.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SNDK.wmv
Volume: 11.718M Avg Volume: 10.902M
BUY POINT: $43.74 Volume=12M Target=$49.89 Stop=$40.68
POSITION: SNDK 10J43.00 - Oct. $43c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/25/2010
SSO (ProShares SP500 Ultra ETF--$35.30; +0.08; optionable)
After Hours: $35.85
STATUS: This is a play on the SP500 and a bounce after the large caps undercut the February lows and reversed intraday. That undercut and reversal often triggers the upside rebound, and we are looking for a run up to the January peak at 40.70. The 2x leverage on this ETF makes it a good vehicle to play a rebound move in an otherwise downside run.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SSO.wmv
Volume: 48.317M Avg Volume: 20.535M
BUY POINT: $35.51 Volume=30M Target=$40.65 Stop=$33.02
POSITION: SSO 10I34.00 - Sept. $34c (62 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/25/2010
TEN (Tenneco Automotive--$21.53; +0.37; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ten.html
After Hours: $21.53
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: ABCD up. TEN made us money on its last run and it is setting up to do the same now. Good upside volume the past several sessions as TEN tested over the 200 day SMA, held, and started back up. Looking back at the pattern you see a break higher in early February off the 50 day EMA and a steady rally through early May ahead of the flash crash. It has stair-stepped back this month, making a lower high then last week a lower low right over the 200 day SMA. That is the ABCD pattern, forming the D point this week as TEN broke higher. Gapped lower Tuesday then reversed for a gain. If TEN can continue upside then we are ready to move into the play for a run back up to the prior high in the pattern at 27 (closing).
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TEN.wmv
Volume: 2.318M Avg Volume: 1.155M
BUY POINT: $21.80 Volume=2M Target=$26.74 Stop=$19.45
POSITION: TEN 10J20.00 - Oct. $20c (65 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 05/22/2010
BONT (Bon-Ton Stores--$12.92; -0.36; optionable): Department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bont.html
EARNINGS: 05/20/2010
STATUS: ABCD. Short bounce up Monday, then stepped back Tuesday as it gapped lower. Very common to see the gap lower and subsequent rebound Tuesday, and held solidly at the D point in the pattern with this move. As it holds this level it is ready to make that break higher, so now we just play the waiting game. Will be patient, but ready to jump on it when it takes the step up to our buy point that sticks. To recap: Strong surge from mid-March through late April as BONT cleared a 4 month cup with handle base. Strong surge and consolidating that move in May during the 'flash crash', subsequent bounce, and then more selling last week. That stair-step back put in the lower high and lower low that is characteristic of the ABCD pattern, all within that strong surge from March to early May that delineates the boundaries of the pattern. A very nice setup to the pattern and watching for a solid upside move through our buy point that sticks the move toward the close. That is our trigger to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BONT.wmv
Volume: 268.98K Avg Volume: 256.248K
BUY POINT: $13.33 Volume=384K Target=$18.00 Stop=$12.40
POSITION: BONT 10J12.50 - Oct. $12.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/24/2010
IWM (Ishares Russell 2000--$64.19; -0.01; optionable)
After Hours: $63.79
STATUS: ABCD. A gap lower followed by selling put IWM below the 200 day SMA, but a nice rebound back finished things flat for the session. Second bounce up off this support, with the first seen on Friday with the gap to the moving average that reversed strongly back up. Doing just what it needs to at a key level and is ready to make its move. To recap: The small caps are setting up, and now we will see if they can deliver upside. A solid run from February through late April is being tested in that familiar stair-step back, holding the January peak on the May 6 flash crash, bouncing, and then coming back this past week to make a lower low at the 200 day SMA, bouncing off that level Friday. The pattern is set up and now we see if IWM can deliver upside with a continued bounce as seen on Friday. The market is still treacherous with a lot of downside expectations, but if you see these patterns and they start to move as expected, then you have to move in as well.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/IWM.wmv
Volume: 76.023M Avg Volume: 73.884M
BUY POINT: $64.32 Volume=100M Target=$73.95 Stop=$62.54
POSITION: IWM 10H64.00 - Aug. $64c (55 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/10/2010
LSCC (Lattice Semiconductor--$4.70; -0.10; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lscc.html
After Hours: $4.75
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: Flag. LSCC has tested lower, now forming something of an ABCD pattern as it tests and holds the 50 day EMA. Nice doji Friday, and followed that with a little up and down action Monday and Tuesday. Thanks to a gap down, LSCC did finish negative Tuesday, but as it bounced off the lows at the 50 day EMA, it looks ready. Still just waiting for that move higher that sticks. To recap: A rather deep flag, but given the market issues last week we can live with that. LSCC broke higher two weeks back, taking off after a lateral consolidation into earnings. Nice surge on good volume, and then the test back this week to fill the modest gap on earnings. After that gap fill LSCC is heading back up, gapping Monday though on low volume. Still solid, still looking for LSCC to make the run higher from here, and if it continues we will ride the move up with it.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/LSCC.wmv
Volume: 3.274M Avg Volume: 2.403M
BUY POINT: $5.08 Volume=3M Target=$6.78 Stop=$4.84
POSITION: LSCC 10I5.00 - Sept. $5c (86 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/19/2010
NETL (Netlogic Microsystems--$27.69; +0.85; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/netl.html
After Hours: $27.50
EARNINGS: 04/29/2010
STATUS: Fibonacci retracement double bottom. During the selling last week NETL hung in at the 61% Fibonacci retracement level, showing it is likely sold out and ready to start higher. It was moving up Friday, but then faded back on us to start the week. Not to worry, though, as the stock really started working Tuesday, showing a solid upside push after testing down intraday. Not quite enough for a buy, but if it can keep it up and stick the move, it looks ready. To recap: Great run from February to early May. Then the pullback that fell into the flash crash. That move took NETL down to the 61% Fibonacci retracement. Not enough to play it off of that move so we put it on the watch list and waited. NETL bounced up through last Wednesday and then faded again the past 5 sessions back to the 61% retracement level. Now this is something you can play off the 61% retracement: a double bottom. Want to see a solid break higher from here that can stick; that is our buy. Your target is back up at the prior high, plenty of upside to make some solid gain. The stop point is close so this is a good risk/reward point. Been looking to get back into NETL, and have been watching this set up.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NETL.wmv
Volume: 2.051M Avg Volume: 1.644M
BUY POINT: $27.82 Volume=2M Target=$34.89 Stop=$26.37
POSITION: NETL 10G25.00 - July $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/17/2010
NTRI (Nutrisystem--$21.56; -0.08; optionable): Weight loss systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntri.html
After Hours: $21.35
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Still looking for NTRI to shed the 200 day SMA and make its break upside. Nice hold at support to end last week and is starting this week in the same fashion. Doing its job for now, and just have to wait for the play to come to us with a shove higher off this solid support level. To recap: Don Shula, Dan Marino, Lawrence Taylor. Lots of former football players learning to retrain their minds to lose the habit of eating. Seems to work as NTRI just reported good earnings; or maybe more accurately, the marketing works? Whatever the case, NTRI rallied well through late December then rolled over and sold off into this 6 month base. Tried to hold the 200 day SMA, gapped below it in March but then fought back. Gapped above it two weeks back. Gap below, gap above. Tested that gap last week and rallied nicely to a new post-March high. Nice test the past two sessions, holding just over the 10 day EMA on the close. Very good action and we are looking for NTRI to continue higher from here and give us the buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NTRI.wmv
Volume: 903.493K Avg Volume: 1.536M
BUY POINT: $22.02 Volume=2M Target=$28.89 Stop=$20.48
POSITION: NTRI 1021.00 - Sept. $21c (67 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/24/2010
PII (Polaris--$57.99; -0.37; optionable): ATV's, PWC's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pii.html
After Hours: $59.13
EARNINGS: 07/12/2010
STATUS: A nice stretch down to the 50 day EMA and Friday lows before climbing back up to finish with a doji. After that close off the high Monday, PII just went for a check up at support and after the bounce back still looks good. Could be ready to start up off this move so will see if it gets traction and can track higher now. To recap: PII remains solid, testing its 50 day EMA last week, holding and bouncing off that level Friday. Monday PII was up again, gapping higher Monday and surging off that gap. It could not hold the move, or at least a lot of it, but it did maintain the gap, so we are watching this pattern to see if PII can continue higher off this level and give us the entry. Very solid action as is often the case with PII.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PII.wmv
Volume: 1.381M Avg Volume: 426.848K
BUY POINT: $58.78 Volume=650K Target=$67.92 Stop=$54.78
POSITION: PII 10I55.00 - Sept. $55c (86 delta) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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