Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 05/26/2010
GS (Goldman Sachs--$140.30; -2.26; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
After Hours: $140.00
EARNINGS: 07/12/2010
STATUS: GS looks as if it is beaten up enough. Price hit a lower low on this pullback after peaking in November 2009, but the momentum appears to be turning. GS has hit a long term support level from lows back in 2006 and one in early 2008. Upside volume has been building in the recent action. Wednesday it gapped higher but stalled at the 18 day EMA and reversed to close lower but on lower trade and still working laterally as it has for the past week. Looking at a 60 minute chart MACD is showing a nice positive divergence, making higher highs and higher lows as than at similar highs and lows the past month. GS faded after gapping higher and rallying early Wednesday. Want to see GS hold in this range and make a bounce to the upside. If it can make that move and make it stick, then we are ready to move in for a bounce up toward the late 2009 lows near 160.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/GS.wmv
Volume: 17.08M Avg Volume: 17.914M
BUY POINT: $141.31 Volume=20M Target=$160.42 Stop=$135.52
POSITION: GS 10J140.00 - Oct. $140c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/26/2010
SCSS (Select Comfort--$10.14; +0.21; optionable): Air beds
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scss.html
After Hours: $10.17
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: Triangle. Yes we closed SCSS last week when it gapped lower and started to fall below the March and April peaks. It was selling but then reversed last Thursday, recovering those levels. It is now pinching off at what looks to be the end of a month-long test back to the 50 day EMA and those prior peaks. Last Thursday saw an undercut and intraday reversal on rising, above average volume. Tuesday SCSS bounces nicely on rising trade. Wednesday it blasted higher but then gave most all back: it managed, however, to hold over the down trendline in the triangle. Looking for SCSS to continue this break over the down trendline to give us the buy. Want to see that break hold into the close to trigger our buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SCSS.wmv
Volume: 1.828M Avg Volume: 746.614K
BUY POINT: $10.18 Volume=900K Target=$11.95 Stop=$9.38
POSITION: SCSS 10I10.00 - Sept. $10c (44 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/26/2010
SMTC (Semtech--$17.94; +0.07; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smtc.html
After Hours: $18.61
EARNINGS: 05/26/2010
STATUS: If you look at a weekly chart you can see SMTC setting up a double bottom with handle base from summer 2009 to today, currently working on the handle since mid-April. It is using the 200 day SMA as support for the handle, and is indeed forming a small triangle the past three weeks; an extra goose for the upside perhaps. Volume spiked the past two sessions on the upside, and though SMTC gave back most of the Wednesday move it is still in good shape to move higher with the rest of the semiconductors. Of course after the Wednesday action we want to see the move stick toward the close to trigger a buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SMTC.wmv
Volume: 2.112M Avg Volume: 844.211K
BUY POINT: $18.08 Volume=1.2M Target=$20.92 Stop=$16.81
POSITION: SMTC 10I17.50 - Sept. $17.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/26/2010
TRN (Trinity Industries--$20.93; +0.71; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trn.html
After Hours: $20.84
EARNINGS: 07/30/2010
STATUS: ABCD Up. The railroads rallied nicely from February through April, as did much of the market, but moves by stocks such as TRN were stellar and needed a pullback to rest and consolidate. It has done so by setting up an ABCD pattern as it stair-steps back from the April high at 72. A lower high and a lower low set up the pattern with the D point forming just over the 200 day SMA. Held there last Friday and bounced, tested it again Tuesday and bounced, and then TRN was up Wednesday. Though it closed off its high after tapping the 10 day EMA, TRN still looks very strong here. If it can continue to the upside we are looking at a buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TRN.wmv
Volume: 1.272M Avg Volume: 1.245M
BUY POINT: $21.31 Volume=1.5M Target=$26.98 Stop=$19.02
POSITION: TRN 10J20.00 - Oct. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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