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world stock market, us stock market
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5/27/10 Investment House Alerts
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MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: GS; LSCC; NETL; PII; SCSS; TRN; WRLD
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Technical Summary, Economy, and the Next Session. This allows you to choose the segments you are interested in without having to find the segment in a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
MARKET OVERVIEW
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MarketOverview.wmv
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TechnicalSummary.wmv
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/Economy.wmv
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NextSession.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- Investors finally find a move they can support.
- China stands behind the EU and its bonds, touches off a rally that was set to blast.
- GDP written down, initial jobless claims remain pesky.
- This is just a bounce for now, nothing to get married to.
This time the buyers didn't forget the gravy.
Investors finally found a move they could support on Thursday. Could it have been real buying that marks the end of the correction? Possibly. Was it news driven? China said it fully backs the EU debt and was not planning on selling any of it. As if China would say anything else given it holds as much European debt as it does US debt. Was it the fact that Spain passed an austerity package? Who cares if it was by just one vote? What is one silly little vote, right? Or was it simply economic reports? US came out with its GDP, and it was not as good as expected at 3% versus 3.3% expected. Initial jobless claims remain very pesky, holding at 460K versus a mere 455K anticipated. Maybe just maybe it was an oversold market that was looking for an excuse to bounce and for those shorts to cover some of their positions. That makes a lot of sense.
The market was an oversold powder keg with the drubbing it has received since May began. All of this has occurred in May: The two massive down legs on big volume, huge volatility, and tremendous downside breadth. There were extremes on breadth as well as new lows, and it was a powder keg ready to blow. When China said they believe in the Euro and the European debt, that was the spark that exploded the powder keg and sent stocks screaming higher. It did not hurt that there is a three-day weekend in the US with Memorial Day on Monday. When all this hit the fan, the shorts basically capitulated on the day, threw it in, and started to cover. Looking at a five-minute chart of the session, it was a steady move all day. This is unlike the day before with the rollover into the close after a gap higher. On Thursday there was the gap higher, the further rally, a midday pause it did not lose any ground and then an afternoon build higher. It was stair-stepping up with a sprint into the close. Classic short covering. I will talk more about why this is short covering (other than what I've been saying for a month) in the technical session.
The market was extremely oversold and ready to bounce. With the reversal after the SP500 undercut its February low on Tuesday, we saw that there was some buying. Whether it was short covering or buyers coming in, that remains for us to say. Of course it was obviously short covering it starts all rallies. The question will be whether the real long-term buyers (and these days "long term" can mean a month) pick up the torch, take the baton, and continue higher. They were certainly doing that on Thursday as the indices surged and closed at session highs.
It was not just the markets; all trades reversed. The dollar was down, oil was up, and bonds were clobbered. They were all heading the opposite direction they have moved in recently. If China is so confident in the Euro, then you would expect these trades to turn. One would sell dollars in favor of the beaten-down Euros. Of course they were doing that, but the question is how long they will continue. This was a notable reversal of roles for those other markets as well as the stock market. Stocks poured it on late. The shorts were throwing logs on the fire and the momentum went straight up into the close. SP500 is at the 200 day EMA, so there was no major reversal to end the day, but the move itself does not indicate any major reversal either. There was the undercut of the February lows and the reversal off that, and the market is rebounding, but you do not typically overcome this kind of a bloodletting with just a straight shot back to the upside. Of course not. Note that volume was lower on the NYSE as well as the NASDAQ. That bolsters the idea that this was an oversold condition that needed to be relieved, and the Chinese news (along with a few other news stories) provided the trigger to send it higher. It may just be a short-covering bounce, but it was a violent reversal without a doubt. This is the kind of violent reversal or bounce that happens when the market is oversold and there is short covering. There can be some vicious upside as vicious as some of the downside days along the way. After all, there is ugly selling here, and then there has to be covering. There are bargain hunters coming in as well.
We have to be concerned about what to do here. We have been moving into the long side over the past few days, and I think it will benefit us quite well on this run up to the January peak. We do not want to get married to anything right now. Be smart and take what the market gives. Thursday was giving a lot to the upside with the SP600 moving up 4% as it bounces further off of its January peak. SP500 rallied a strong 3.3% as it continued its bounce. NASDAQ was no slouch either as it put in a 3.7% move, rising almost 82 points. DJ30 always has the impressive point totals; it was up 285, but it was just a mere 2.85% gain. SP600 was up 4%. A nice rocket shot higher. There are some extremely solid numbers, and this is what happens with these kinds of oversold bounces.
OTHER MARKETS.
Dollar. The dollar peeled back (1.2361 Euros versus 1.2180 Wednesday). One of the reasons it sold was China said they were fond of the European bonds and the Euro. Of course that meant it was time to sell the dollar. The dollar is near that prior high it actually bumped it from just two weeks back. This is matching roughly the high back in 2008 and early 2009, and it is feeling a push at that point. The move is being repelled at this juncture, and it did not help that the Euro was rallying because of China. The question is whether we got a temporary double top in place that would cause the dollar to sell more aggressively to the downside. It is hard to believe, just because China says it likes Europe, that this will absolve Europe of its problems. The dollar will likely test and then continue higher.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Bonds. Bonds were hit hard (10 year US Treasury 3.35% versus 3.19% Wednesday). Bonds were hit hard given that Europe is now considered an acceptable risk. US bonds sold off on that, which would make some sense. US bonds should be losing some ground given all of the liquidity out there that the Fed will have to remove. They SHOULD be selling. They have only been kept higher because of the worries about Europe. If Europe is suddenly all right, US bonds are not needed for their safe-harbor status as much, and they will sell as investors move out. That is what I see on the chart: A big gap lower, although it is still something of just a continuing uptrend.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg
Gold. Gold is at an interesting juncture right now. It has rallied back to its December peak and is showing a doji. It rallied nicely, and it made a higher low after selling back off that new high. It is an important level for gold. If it failed here, it could step back down and maybe set up an ABCD pattern. It has set up a nice base, it broke out, and now it has tested the 50 day and bounced. Again, it is a key level. What will it do here? It could come down, hold, and bounce again, or it could set up the ABCD pattern. How it trades off of this doji will be instructive. If it continues higher, then it has the mojo. The thing is, gold was not as big an issue when Europe started looking better. Inflation will be an issue, however, with a trillion dollar baby in the Eurozone, the debt in the US, and the money we have all printed. According to the Phillips Curve, that is particularly true if the rest of the economies improve. That should drive inflation higher and would make gold more of a valued commodity. How it moves here will give an insight as to what investors around the world are thinking with respect to inflation and economic strength ahead.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Oil. Oil had a great day. It is bouncing off the top of its trading range. Is it because of the technical position it needed to bounce? I think that is part of it because there was the reversal on Tuesday, the rally on Wednesday, and then the continued move higher on Thursday. It continued that surge on Thursday. It was aided by the fact that, if Europe is okay, then oil will be in more demand. There was a bit of a double reason for the move higher, but mostly I consider this technical at this point. A technical move bouncing off the bottom of its range, but that is all right. Everything has to bounce after it gets sold hard, and that is exactly what has happened.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
TECHNICAL PICTURE
INTERNALS
Breadth. The breadth was very strong. Advancing issues on NASDAQ were up 6.7:1. On the NYSE, advancing issues led 8.5:1. Very strong moves. That is what we have seen both up and down: Lopsided breadth. These moves are extreme, and that shows the market is still bouncing around in a correction, trying to set a base, find a bottom and consolidate. The figures show high volatility in the price moves as well as in the internals. Big downside breadth on down day, big upside breadth on up days.
Volume. Volume was disappointing. It fell 21% on NASDAQ to 2.3B. It fell 27% on the NYSE to 1.4B. It is still above average on the NYSE and marginal on the NASDAQ. This was not a strong move not as strong as the moves we have seen in the selling. There was good upside volume on the reversal day, and maybe that will carry over and push the market higher. For now, this was not a very strong move in terms of the volume, and that is indicative of short covering. Breadth was huge. It is not a slam dunk; there are conflicting indicators. There is huge breadth and weaker volume, but I think the huge breadth can be explained away by the market volatility. It is being whipsawed back and forth. Volume is very telling at this stage because it shows that the upside was not a huge rush of big institutions coming in to buy. It was more of a short-covering move were shorts covered their positions, and thus volume was not commensurate with the price gains or the breadth.
CHARTS
SP500. SP500 is continuing the reversal after undercutting the February lows on Tuesday. Strong move that brought it to the 200 day EMA, gaining 35 points. There is interim resistance here. From the February peak there is a close at 1110, and that is where people are looking for resistance. I think it will be able to make it at least to the bottom of the January consolidation, and more likely up at the peak near 1145. It has been a terrific bounce. It has good roots to it. A test, a bounce, a selloff, and then a couple of tests lower that both reversed sharply. Then there was today's explosive move higher. It has plenty of momentum to take it up to that level, and that is what I am anticipating. After that we have to reevaluate. It becomes problematic in my book, and it may turn right back over and sell off. It has good foundation under it now as the buyers finally found a move they could sink their teeth into.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ is continuing its move higher, gapping through the 200 day EMA and closing at a session high. I am also looking for a move for NASDAQ up to the January peak; intraday that looks to be at 2326. It held important, long term important support as it tested lower last week and earlier this week. Now it has bounced off that level. As with SP500, the January peak is key because that tells how much strength this buy has, or whether it is just a short covering bounce that will roll back over.
SP600. SP600 was in better shape to begin with, and it posted a very nice 4% move. It has its reversal on Tuesday as well, tapping at the 200 day EMA while holding on the close above the January peak. It has blasted to the upside, and it is not as well defined. It could head up to this March peak at 368, or it could make it all the way up to the range right before the mid-May peak at around 372. It has a ways to run, but it starts to get strong in the range outlined by this top line on the chart.
SOX. A big 5% move in the semiconductors. SOX bounced off a double bottom and a long term key support level on Tuesday, and it is rallying sharply higher. The high from January will be an important high for it at 371. It closed at 361, so with another 10 points it will have an important level it will test. The chips have looked better. They have had good relative strength during this pullback, as has retail. I would like to see the chips break through and move and challenge the gap up point from early April. It opened at 389 that day, and that is the gap up point. Having closed at 361, that gives SOX plenty of room to run to the upside.
LEADERSHIP
I can talk about a lot of things with respect to leadership, but on this kind of day stocks are breaking to the upside. There are tremendous surges upside, and you do not get the same look as you would on a more sustained move where there are definite leadership groups leading the market higher, setting up, and breaking higher. Today was just a mad rush back up. Leadership stocks such as retail move well, and there were chips stocks moving also. Even some of the transportation stocks moved well. There was a wide group of stocks rallying, and some of these were off of patterns, such as TRN, which set up an ABCD pattern. Others were just shooting higher with no real plan other than the short covering from a big selloff.
Stocks such as LSCC in the semiconductors moved up off of a nicely-formed pullback. That is expected in a nice pattern from a stock that was set up well. In retail, PII has a nice triangle and gapped higher out of that. There are leaders that are moving higher, but with 8:1 breadth, not all of those stocks will be from good patterns given the gutting that most of them took over the past month. Indeed, most of them are from terrible patterns that are just making oversold bounces similar to the market. We cannot take too much out of this as far as major shifts in leadership. What I do know is there were leaders that set up well in retail as well as the semiconductors. We are seeing also transportation setting back up as with the rails and TRN and CSX. They were moving back up off of tests and patterns. A lot of them were ABCD patterns and moving back to the upside.
Metals were interesting as well. MTL rallied off of its trading range, and you will see a lot of that taking place. FCX was the same thing. We moved into it and it is moving off the bottom of a trading range. It undercut that trading range, came down to the lower level of that range, and undercut the top part of it and reversed. That was a great buy signal, and of course we moved in on that. You get the idea. Leadership stocks that set up well are doing well. Other stocks are rebounding furiously as well because that is the nature of a short-covering bounce.
THE ECONOMY
Second GDP read for Q1 not as glowing.
The big story of the day was the GDP. This is the second iteration of the GDP, and it came in at 3%. 3.3% was expected, and the first reading at 3.2%. Things did not improve as much as thought. The day was overshadowed by the news of China backing the EU. What was lost was the economic data in the US while overall still improving is starting to show issues. The Leading Economic Indicators put in a negative reading for the first time in a year. Housing starts jumped, but inventories surged in existing home sales. We are having problems along the way. Some of these are growing pains, so to speak, with existing home sales and increasing inventories. When there are more inventories, people feel like the market has improved. Those sitting on the fence and waiting put their house on the market. It is similar to when people are out of work and have left the jobs market suddenly see things are getting better. They reenter the jobs market and the unemployment rate jumps higher. That is just a growing pain you have to go through before things get better. There could be slowing along the way, and the GDP is reflecting that some of the expectations are greater than the actual numbers coming in.
Durable goods orders were widely varied on Wednesday as they came back from April with 2.9% overall. That is much better than expected, but if you took out transportation they fell 1% when they were expected to gain 0.7%. The revisions were excellent, but we have to see what happens the next month. Is that -1% minus transportation going to hold up? Does it get worse from there? Those are concerns that a weaker-than-expected GDP brings up, but only in a rather lukewarm or moderate terms. The economy cannot maintain the same pace; it will ebb and flow just as any market does. It is not a straight shot back up, so do not get bent out of shape about one data point. When you see several of them start to stack up, you can say there may be a bit of slowing. It does not mean the double dip is upon us, but it means that things are slowing naturally and normally, and they could bounce back up. Continue to watch the stock markets and bond markets. Right now they are not saying great things about the future but, again, this is just a normal correction. That is particularly true when you consider how far the stock market has run to this point.
Jobless claims continue to hold 450K+.
Initial claims were pesky again at 460K versus 455K expected. That was better than the 474K from the prior week. They are still much too high, and that will continue to plague the jobs market. We can create a lot of jobs through government spending, but they are only one-time hits. They will not produce. It is the land of the lotus eaters with respect to government jobs. They take money from taxes, they give it to people to spend, and the government does not produce anything. It just takes. Some people make the argument that those people are working, spending, and consuming. That is true, but it is only a small fraction of what happens when a private sector job is created. In a private sector job, a company needs an employee because it is growing. It hires that employee, and then there is the consumption. That requires more of the goods from that employer and other employers and companies that manufacture them. It is a much stronger effect when a company needs to grow a job and hire an employee versus the government creating something out of thin air. That employee will only take from the economy that pays the government salary.
On Friday the interesting points will be the Chicago PMI and the Michigan Sentiment statement. It is always nice to see what the sentiment is, and the regional manufacturing is important because there has been a bit of backsliding in that of late. Again, you cannot continue in a straight line gain forever, but I want to see how much pullback we are having right now. Another big topic will be personal income and spending. If you do not have the income, you cannot maintain the spending. They are both expected to move up a fraction of a percent.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 29.68; -5.34
VXN: 30.3; -6.02
VXO: 28.4; -5.81
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.04; -0.01. Pretty high for a day where the market surged, still suggesting not all are rushing to the bullish side.
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 43.8% versus 47.2%. Continuing the drop though not quite as precipitous as the prior week that saw a fall from 56.0%. Looks as if that was the high on this move, falling short of the 60% to 65% considered bearish, but not that short. As with horseshoes, it was close enough. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. Over the 35% threshold level below suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 24.7% versus 24.7%. Holding steady after the strong surge higher from 18.7%. Hit a high of 27.8% level on this leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +81.8 points (+3.73%) to close at 2277.68
Volume: 2.321B (-21.42%)
Up Volume: 2.192B (+933.908M)
Down Volume: 118.21M (-1.668B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 6.71 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.26 to 1
New Highs: 31 (+11)
New Lows: 22 (-37)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +35.11 points (+3.29%) to close at 1103.06
NYSE Volume: 1.422B (-26.73%)
Up Volume: 1.382B (+339.713M)
Down Volume: 38.053M (-842.752M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 8.54 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.51 to 1
New Highs: 77 (+2)
New Lows: 41 (-14)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +284.54 points (+2.85%) to close at 10258.99
Volume DJ30: 265M shares Thursday versus 316M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
FRIDAY
I expect to see more of the same on Friday. Not the explosive move higher; indeed, early on we could get a pullback. After a strong move up, a market tends to retrench a little. I anticipate the same forces that helped send the market higher to continue to unwind. That would be the oversold nature of the market, and that pressure has to be released. While Thursday was a big release of that pressure, it was not the entire move in my opinion. I still think we will see a move up to the January peak on SP500 and NASDAQ, and that would put SP500 at roughly 1150. That gives another 47 or so points higher, and that can make money for us. We took great positions the past few sessions to the upside as stocks started to reverse and race higher. That puts us in position to benefit as they continue up toward the January peak.
We do not want to get married to these positions. We do not want to be beguiled into believing this move is a new bull market run. Maybe it will turn out to be that way. If it is, we will be in there because you know how we work. We will take some profits when we get to a resistance point, and if it continues higher, we will let it run. If it does not, we will take the rest of it off the table. That way we ensure that if there is a run that continues, we are not out of it. Do I really think that will be the case? Of course what I think does not matter, but it pays to be ready. I still expect this to simply be a bounce higher and no more than that. The volume was anemic compared to the other volume seen on the move to the downside. We will see if the weaker upside volume continues to lag as the market continues higher. If it does, we have to be ready to take gain off the table on our upside positions when the move runs out of gas and we see some kind of signal. Maybe there is a gap to a doji and a gap down, and then the market moves laterally and fails. Sometimes there is a very clear signal, and sometimes it is not so clear. You know where the key levels are; the January peak will be one of them. Just watch how the market reacts. If you have good gain and it starts to become problematic, the smart move is to bank at least part of that gain.
With all of that in mind, I am still looking for a bounce ahead of the three-day weekend. We will likely not be buying many more positions. We took great positions over the past few days, and I do not want to load up heading into a three-day weekend. You have to worry about coming back on Tuesday and getting a gutting. If we get another barn burner of a move that takes SP500 up to the bottom of the January consolidation, that would put it around 1133. That is not too far from 1150. If you have good gain in some of the upside, you might want to consider taking some of that off the table. If there is a quick reversal and a surge higher, or if there are two big surges off of a reversal day, then that might be something you want to consider taking given the pattern that the market is in with two big legs lower. We could take some off and then let it ride through the weekend and see what happens on Tuesday. There could very well be another move, or it could be sold. It just depends. It is a long weekend and a lot can happen in that period.
A lot of bad news is out there. All it took was one halfway decent story about China backing Europe to spark the powder keg and blast stocks higher. Overall the bias remains to the downside. Near term, the likelihood is decent news versus bad news. Thus we can get the kind of report over the weekend that might further the rally into the start of next week. Then we could get some nice gain and look at closing down some positions if the move runs out of steam as the week progresses. I just want to reiterate that we are not wedded to these positions. There are great stocks, but the reason we are getting into them is they are either in a good pattern, or they are in really good position to bounce and can run like the wind when they get going. We want to use that to make money. We do not want to kid ourselves into believing this is the bottom or the end. It may turn out to be, but we do not have any evidence that that is the case. Thus, we are playing this as a bounce to make money on. When we make money on the bounce, we will take money on the bounce. We will leave some because it can always go higher, but we will not be foolishly throwing all of our money at it only to see it roll back on us.
We are starting to get what we have been looking for: That oversold bounce. We will continue to let plays run higher. We may have one or two to pick up, but I do not anticipate buying much on Friday. Have a great evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2277.68
Resistance:
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
The 50 day EMA at 2354
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2434 is the May 2010 high
2453 is the August 2008 peak
Support:
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2227
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1103.06
Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 1105
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 1144
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
Support:
1101 is the October 2009 high
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,258.99
Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 10,278
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
The 50 day EMA at 10,637
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
Support:
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
May 24 - Monday
Existing Home Sales, April (10:00): 5.77M actual versus 5.65M expected, 5.36M prior (revised from 5.35M)
May 25 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, March (09:00): 2.4% actual versus 3.0% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.6%)
Consumer Confidence, May (10:00): 63.3 actual versus 58.3 expected, 57.7 prior (revised from 57.9)
FHFA Housing Price I, March (10:00): 0.3% actual versus -0.4% prior (revised from -0.2%)
May 26 - Wednesday
Durable Orders, April (08:30): 2.9% actual versus 1.5% expected, 0.0% prior (revised from -1.2%)
Durable Orders ex Transportation, April (08:30): -1.0% actual versus 0.7% expected, 4.8% prior (revised from 3.5%)
New Home Sales, April (10:00): 504K actual versus 425K expected, 439K prior (revised from 411K)
Crude Inventories, 05/22 (10:30): 2.46M actual versus 0.162M prior
May 27 - Thursday
GDP - Second Estimate, Q1 (08:30): 3.0% actual versus 3.3% expected, 3.2% prior
GDP Deflator - Second, Q1 (08:30): 1.0% actual versus 0.9% expected, 0.9% prior
Initial Claims, 05/22 (08:30): 460K actual versus 455K expected, 474K prior (revised from 471K)
Continuing Claims, 05/15 (08:30): 4607K actual versus 4600K expected, 4656K prior (revised from 4625K)
May 28 - Friday
Personal Income, April (08:30): 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior
Personal Spending, April (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior
PCE Prices - Core, April (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Chicago PMI, May (09:45): 60.0 expected, 63.8 prior
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, May (09:55): 73.2 expected, 73.3 prior
End part 1 of 3
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