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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside: Looking at some stocks capable of moving quickly to take advantage of a further market bounce. Short term trades versus our more typical trades for weeks to months. Again, not getting married to them unless they show us they want to get hitched.
Play Date: 05/29/2010
BIDU (Baidu.com--$73.21; -0.29; optionable): Chinese internet search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
After Hours: $73.15
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: Our current position in BIDU is in the money and near term BIDU is pausing after a good run Thursday. On the 60 minute chart BIDU is consolidating in a flat line, forming the handle to a double bottom with handle pattern formed over the past two weeks (on the hour chart). We are looking to use this short pattern as a new entry point for a continued run back up toward the May peak, playing BIDU's continued momentum into and after its split.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/BIDU.wmv
Volume: 10.417M Avg Volume: 16.647M
BUY POINT: $74.28 Volume=20M Target=$82.11 Stop=$71.98
POSITION: BIDU 10I73.00 - Sept. $73c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/29/2010
DLTR (Dollar Tree--$62.59; +0.06; optionable): Discount retail stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dltr.html
After Hours: $62.38
EARNINGS: 08/02/2010
STATUS: Pre-Split. DLTR is one of the super discount retailers that is performing well. After a rally off the 50 day EMA DLTR is taking a short respite, and looking at the 60 minute chart this rest is setting up for a move upside. Indeed late in the session Friday DLTR started to bounce off the pullback. Very simple here. DLTR has momentum after announcing a split and heading toward its actual split. We are looking to catch it as it continues back to the upside and resumes its run.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DLTR.wmv
Volume: 1.445M Avg Volume: 1.23M
BUY POINT: $62.89 Volume=1.6M Target=$67.75 Stop=$61.65
POSITION: DLTR 10H60.00 - Aug. $60c (64 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/29/2010
JCG (J. Crew Group--$45.64; +1.78; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcg.html
After Hours: $45.98
EARNINGS: 08/23/2010
STATUS: JCG is one of the retailers showing good momentum in a haggard market. It is currently in a stair-step test lower that commenced in May. Though testing, it is not breaking down, indeed, using the 200 day SMA as support on the flash crash and then on the second test last week. It held and Friday was surging on very strong volume as it reported strong Q1 results. Now it closed well off the high Friday, just managing to hold over the 50 day EMA. The 60 minute chart shows JCG forming a flag after a sharp break higher that broke it out of a short double bottom pattern. This flag is giving us an opening to move into a stock that is showing good relative strength in a weak market.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JCG.wmv
Volume: 5.046M Avg Volume: 1.764M
BUY POINT: $45.88 Volume=2.4M Target=$50.92 Stop=$44.57
POSITION: JCG 10 I45.00 - Sept. $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/29/2010
NFLX (Netflix--$111.15; +2.29; optionable): Mail order DVD, game rentals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
After Hours: $111.30
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: We are looking at another position on NFLX as this strong stock sets up another buy point. Yes it was up on Friday when most stocks were lower, and while that may discount it for a new buy for some, if you look at the hourly chart you can see NFLX is giving an opportunity to enter on this run. After that strong upside break it is testing, forming a flag pattern, indeed a handle, to a cup with handle base formed from mid-month. We are simply watching for a break over the down trendline in the short flag, a break that holds up toward the close, to give us a new entry point in one of the stronger stocks in the market. A move to the target lands us 53+% on our option play.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NFLX.wmv
Volume: 4.028M Avg Volume: 2.693M
BUY POINT: $111.89 Volume=3.2M Target=$122.00 Stop=$108.39
POSITION: NFLX 10G110.00 - July $110c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Downside: Some of these are ready to fall now. Others such as SPY and CAT likely have more upside before they roll over. There is the possibility that does not occur, and as such we have CVS, PCLN, and indeed we have written the current SPY play for a failure at the 200 day SMA, something of 'just in case' downside plays.
Play Date: 05/29/2010
CVS (CVS Corp.--$34.63; +0.04; optionable): Drug stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvs.html
After Hours: $34.54
EARNINGS: 08/04/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. Unlike many plays that have formed the old standby ABCD up pattern, CVS formed a broad umbrella top from the early April peak on into early May. That rounded top has the same and opposite effect of a rounded bottom: it sets up a move in the opposite direction. CVS started that move with the early May flash crash. It bounced but failed, gapping through the 200 day SMA. Last week CVS rebounded to the 200 day SMA, but on Friday it was showing a doji on the candlestick chart right at that key level after tapping the gap down point on the intraday day high. If CVS fails at this point, holding a move through the buy point, we are ready to move in for the downside play. A move to the initial target lands a 90%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CVS.wmv
Volume: 19.128M Avg Volume: 10.532M
BUY POINT: $34.33 Volume=12M Target=$30.65 Stop=$35.11
POSITION: CVS 10T35.00 - Aug. $35p (-50 delta)
Play Date: 05/29/2010
PCLN (Priceline.com--$191.16; -6.43; optionable): Online travel booking, bidding
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
After Hours: $191.75
EARNINGS: 08/09/2010
STATUS: Bear flag. PCLN made us a lot of money on its upside run and while we are a bit late to the party on the downside, it is setting up for a new downside move that can make us some solid coin. PCLN held the 200 day SMA on the flash crash low. It bounced, but just modestly before rolling over and giving up the 200 day without much of a fight. The past week PCLN rebounded to test that move, but on Wednesday it hit the 10 day EMA, and the rest of the week it could not get past that point. Friday it broke lower from that level on rising, above average volume. A failure at the 10 day EMA indicates a weak stock, and if it continues lower we are ready to move in. A move to the initial target lands a 43%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PCLN.wmv
Volume: 1.651M Avg Volume: 1.37M
BUY POINT: $190.77 Volume=1.9M Target=$177.65 Stop=$197.89
POSITION: PCLN 10S190.00 - July $190p (-43 delta)
Play Date: 05/29/2010
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$109.37; -1.39; optionable)
After Hours: $109.37
STATUS: We anticipate that SPY will continue on up to the January peak along with SP500, and if it makes that move we will adjust the buy point on this play accordingly. In case it does not make that move, however, and fails here at the 200 day SMA, we want to be ready to play the downside on it. Thus after the Friday selling we prepared this play. If SPY and the market stumble from Friday, we are ready to move in on the downside. A run to the initial target lands a 40%ish gain.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/SPY.wmv
Volume: 297.933M Avg Volume: 237.503M
BUY POINT: $108.74 Volume=310M Target=$104.45 Stop=$110.87
POSITION: SPY 10T109.00 - Aug. $109p (-53 delta)
Play Date: 05/29/2010
TEX (Terex--$21.76; -0.74; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tex.html
After Hours: $21.76
EARNINGS: 04/21/2010
STATUS: Still anticipating TEX to bounce to the January peak (23.89) before it stalls. Friday it was down but it tapped at the 200 day SMA on the low and rebounded. Looking for TEX to continue higher from here and hit that 200 day. When it does we look for a rollover to jump in for a turn back to the downside.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TEX.wmv
Volume: 2.06M Avg Volume: 2.649M
BUY POINT: $23.54 Volume=2.7M Target=$18.44 Stop=$24.11
POSITION: TEX 10V24.00 - Oct. $24p
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock watch
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