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world stock market, us stock market
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6/01/2010 Investment House Daily
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Technical Summary, Economy, and the Next Session. This allows you to choose the segments you are interested in without having to find the segment in a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
MARKET OVERVIEW
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TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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SUMMARY:
- Market comes back from early gap lower. Then gives it back and more.
- Fear trade back in vogue as sellers drive the life from the oversold bounce.
- Solid construction, very decent ISM unable to offset China PMI, ECB worry re banks, Canada rate hike.
- Light volume helps sellers send stocks lower late.
- APPL's success spawns DOJ review. A company spawns a new generation of technology and its progeny and gets threatened while FRE and FNM spawn an economic meltdown and get 'unlimited' funding. That is what is wrong with this country.
- Stock market continues to thrash around in its correction with rather typical back and forth gyrations.
- Bounce off February lows needs a B-12 shot.
Nice comeback, for awhile.
On Friday the SP500 fell back from the 200 day EMA, and Tuesday it did further damage. It fell back from the 200 day EMA yet again, this time starting lower. There was some bad news out in the world, and it started with China. Its PMI was down more than was anticipated, and that set the Asian markets off to the downside. The ECB said its banks now have a greater exposure than they did back in 2008 and 2009. That instilled a lot of confidence, sending the dollar and US bonds higher (and the Euro lower) premarket. The bank of Canada raised interest rates 25BP. That could have a dampening effect and was treated that way. In the bigger picture, that moved Canada's interest rates all the way to 0.5%. It was not exactly scorching to the upside, but the result of that triumvirate of news was that futures were way down. Indeed, the Dow futures were down 100 points at one time before they started mounting a rebound into the open. Stocks were down premarket but managed to come back toward the open. Then they rallied through to the upside and were actually positive the start the session. That was not a bad move at all. It shows that maybe the oversold bounce still has legs to it.
The May ISM fell, but it was not as much as thought. It came in at 59.7, and that got things back on track. Construction spending in April came in at 2.7%, and it was only expected to rise 0.1%. March doubled to 0.4% from 0.2%. Quite solid economic data on the US front, and that helped the market move back up. There was some back and forth intraday, and then after lunch the market started to move higher again. It capped out just below the morning peak, and it sold off sharply and bounced. We had an intraday head and shoulders forming, and it rolled over right at the close from Friday and tumbled down into the close. Volume was light, and that helped. Just a few players can move the market a lot when volume is light but it was light compared to what? NYSE volume was still above average on the session, so it was not that light. Nonetheless, the data from overseas overwhelmed the positive US data. It seems like no one believes the US can keep it going, and it sent the market down.
There were some pretty hefty losses across the board. The SP500 lost 1.72% on the session; it was not taking things lightly. NASDAQ lost 1.5%, SP600 lost 2.9%, and NASDAQ 100 lost less than 1% at 0.94%. That was gratis AAPL because it was up over $6.00 at one point during the session. It gave half of it back, but it was able to pull the rest of the market to the upside. One of the things that hurt the market on the day was the US Attorney General thinking of bringing criminal charges against BP. That really shot that stock indeed much of the market lower. There was a gap down that the market was never able to recover from. It was ugly. Regardless of the reason for the selling, it was a fact that the market was unable to move higher and capitalize on the bounce off the SP500 February lows. The market has not totally given up the move, but the life is definitely ebbing from this oversold bounce if it cannot hold in this range and continue back to the upside.
OTHER MARKETS.
Dollar. The dollar was at the top of its range during the session. With the news coming out of the ECB, you can imagine that the dollar was taking off. Premarket it hit a four-year high against the Euro at 1.2185 Euros, but it backed off toward the close (1.2232 Euros versus 1.2268 Friday). The dollar is still in its uptrend. It has something of a pennant formed and, after a nice rally higher, the pennant can lead to the new breakout. The ECB has been trying to report that things are better. China backs the European bonds and currency, so there must be something there, right? That helped the Euro last Thursday, but it did not jar the dollar out of its pattern.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Bonds. Bonds rallied after falling on that jolt from the Chinese shot of confidence in the EU and its bonds. Bonds were trading at 3.24% on the 10 year premarket versus the 3.30% on Friday. By the close they gave back some of that closing at 3.26%. Still a decent move higher, and I doubt you will see bonds sell off until there is empirical evidence that the ECB and the EU is pulling out of its dive.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg
Gold. Gold had a nice day as well. It gapped higher and rallied to the upside ($1,227.10, +12.10). Very solid move for gold. The importance of this move is it cleared the closing high from 2009 the prior all-time high on gold. We had a rally, a test of the 50 day EMA, a move back up, a pause at the prior high, and then a break through that prior high. That is a bullish move for gold.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Oil. Oil was down on the session. It had a rebound off the lows of its range and is giving back some of that oversold bounce for the second day ($72.58, -1.39). It is still in decent shape. It can take a pause here and continue higher, as can SP500. Is there any reason for it to? A lot of that lies with what happens in Europe. Will it pull everything else down, or can it pull out of its dive and let everything else continue to recover? That is what we will find out.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
As you can see from these other markets, the fear trade was definitely back on to start the new month. I was looking for some new money for the new month, but that was overshadowed from the news out of Asia and Europe. There was very little new money coming in, and what did come in was overrun late in the session as the bids dried up and the sellers had their way. The fear trade is back on. You have the dollar, US bonds, and gold moving higher on fear. Gold moving on the fear of inflation, and the other two on the fear that Europe will collapse. Oil is heading lower, and that is on fear as well fear that Europe will collapse and there will not be as much demand for it. It has moved down despite the well in the Gulf billowing out thousands upon thousands of barrels of oil per day. That is lovely. The problem is not necessarily with the well, but the fact that it will likely result in the cancellation of a lot of offshore drilling. That will not help the US moving forward, but nonetheless oil remains lower. Oil traders in that market do not believe there will be enough demand to warrant driving the price higher, near term, despite the longer-term cancellation of a lot of offshore drilling.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
INTERNALS
Breadth. Breadth was healthy at -4.5:1 on NASDAQ. It was also a solid -3.3:1 on the NYSE. Those are sharply negative numbers, and this selling and buying tends to produce sharp numbers upside our downside. That is part of the volatility of the correction. As the market bounces back and forth the buyers and sellers are thrown back and forth, and there is a lot of short covering and selling. The breadth numbers are quite impressive; they were not so impressive late last week on the bounce higher. That was an indication that bounce was not too strong, and they have run back up on the downside. Downside strong; upside not so strong.
Volume. At just over 2B on NASDAQ, volume was rather weak and still below average. It dropped 3.8%, so maybe there was not as much of a hammer behind in move. That is how it was on Friday as well, and that has not stopped the move downside at all. Just a few players can send things lower if there is not much volume in the market. The NYSE volume was down as well 1.6% to 1.43B, but that is still above average. It is relative to what the volume has been. It is lower than it has been during the mid or later part of May, but it is still nothing to sneeze at with this kind of loss.
CHARTS
SP500. SP500 did stall at the 200 day EMA on Thursday, falling back from that on Friday. That represents the 38% Fibonacci retracement of this April to mid-May selloff. A 38% level that holds suggests that momentum remains strong. That would indicate that momentum to the downside remains strong. Thus we sold out of our SSO the upside position on the SP500 and we picked up some downside. That does not mean that it will sell off and crash to new lows, but with this downside momentum off of the 200 day EMA and 38% Fibonacci retracement, it was worth taking those positions and hedging to the downside. We also picked up others such as PCLN on that move. Does that mean it will break down? We could still very easily see it hold this level at the February lows. We could see it hold where it is now because that is a long-term support line. The tumble back on significant volume was something I felt was worth taking a play on to the downside in the event it continues lower. This is still a correction, it is still in this range, and it still has the ability to bounce. It has held twice now. If you look back, it makes three times it has held at this level from roughly 1050-1070 and has bounced back. I am still looking for the possibility of a bounce there because there is still a lot of oversold pressure, and the index really has to bounce higher before it can make a significant turn lower. Unless things will totally collapse then it will go much lower and will be much worse than any of the data suggests right now.
Looking at the US data, things are not falling off the table. Perhaps down the road after the stimulus is used up they will, and maybe that is what the market predicts. For now it has not done that; for now it is showing a normal correction that we see in some slowing GDP numbers. That is not unusual after coming off a bottom of a recession. GDP numbers and economic numbers slow a bit, but that does not mean a roll over and collapse. Although the ECRI report does suggest a noticeable slowing coming, and that dovetails with what I said about the summertime way back in the spring: That there would be another drop, and we would have an economic slowdown in the summer.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ showed similar action, once again unable to move past the level it hit on Thursday. It turned over and sold off after trying to rally back up to that level, and indeed turning nicely positive on the day. On the close it broke the 200 day EMA. It still has not gotten to its February low, but it has gotten close. There is plenty of support down at that level. If AAPL holds up, we could see NASDAQ hold were it held on the May 6th flash crash and make a new bounce up. Again, it has already sold quite a bit, similar to SP500. There is a lot of downside pressure still built up that the little bounce did not relieve. If we get another selloff and a hold in this range, it would be a fourth hold and there would be plenty of strength to bounce upside at that point. Again, it is thrashing around in a correction as is the SP500. The action on Tuesday was disappointing but not catastrophic. It is catastrophic if you look how it is still working through this correction and it has not broken any major support. This is a very important support line here, and also at the lower level where it held in February. Those are important support levels that have gone back over a decade. This is a good point for them to step up and hold if they are going to hold.
SP600. SP600 was the big loser on the day, down 2.89% on the session. It is still holding above its January peak and is coming down for its third test. Could there be a triple bottom? We will see. They say there are no triple bottoms, but I have seen them many times. There is still the ABCD pattern, and it is trying to give it up. If it holds here, it has a good possibility of making a new break higher.
SOX. The semiconductors have shown relative strength over the past several weeks. They have made something of a double bottom at a prior support level, and they bounced. They have sold off, Friday and Tuesday, but they are still showing relative strength throughout the sector. This is not necessarily a deadly pattern, but not necessarily a great pattern either. It is a short-term positive with this double bottom and break higher. We will see if it can muster some upside from this range.
LEADERSHIP
Retail. Retail has been the relative strength leader, and indeed the overall leader in the market. TJX had a strong move up off the double bottom. It broke through the 50 day EMA and held up quite nicely on Friday and Tuesday. No real selling here. Indeed, volume was high with a modest loss on Tuesday, and that suggests the buyers are stepping in to support the stock. That is exactly what you want to see. ROST was one of the leaders on all the financial stations on the day. It supported a gain on the session, although it closed well off its high and below the 50 day EMA. It is still in its ABCD pattern and trying to punch through. Since it is a discounter, it may have a better chance to do that than most stocks. PNRA had a big move up Thursday and has just moved sideways Friday and Tuesday. It is ignoring the market selling. There is a double bottom with handle action. If it makes a break higher, that is a good buy if it can make the move. Remember what I always say: Until a stock makes the move, it is just a pretty picture.
Semiconductors. Semiconductors are showing relative strength, although there is some backsliding going on with some of the stocks. VSEA moved off its low, but it is sliding back down. Volume is still low, but it is churning. It is having a hard time moving anywhere, and it is not exactly a pretty pattern. LRCX is a bit better. There is a double bottom at the 200 day, a bounce, and it is trying to hold. A bit of relative strength there. NVLS looks even better. There was a nice break higher, a little double bottom over a support level, and a new break higher. It looks like it could be forming a double bottom with handle. Notice that it has come back to the 18 day EMA, holding just over the 50 day EMA on tame volume. Not back action at all. That is the relative strength I am talking about.
Metals. Metals are backsliding a bit, but they are not breaking down. FCX is one of the stocks that rolled down to the bottom of its range, undercut and broke higher. It is selling back, and it sold back Tuesday right to the old support level. We will see if it holds. There are interesting points here for a lot of stocks. It could even set up something of a reverse head and shoulders and make a move off this support level. That is a pattern you often see off a support level. If it shows it to us, we are already in some positions and could pick up some more and catch it on the upside. It was down, yes, but its day was not over. It was not ruined. MTL is the same kind of pattern kind of a double bottom. If it comings back down, it can hold. It is holding at a key support level, and it could make the break higher as well.
Energy. It is not only the BP-related companies that are getting the snot kicked out of them. CVX bounced back up last week, but looks like it is turning back down. It is in a trading range, and we will see if it can hold the support level. APC, a BP stock, was bludgeoned today. It gapped lower when it was announced that the top-kill method has not worked. I thought we were told by the head man that everything was under control. They have been there since day one, but they have also been unable to stop it since day one. APA is an onshore company, and it is selling off as well. It tried to make its move, went over a key level last week, but then it gapped lower on Tuesday. Not a good time for the energy sector.
AAPL held the NASDAQ 100 up singlehandedly. When it finally slid off its high, NASDAQ 100 slipped negative. AAPL made an important move over the gap point last week, doing so on Friday, and it continued higher Tuesday. It is showing a lot of strength. The concern is that it is at its 78% Fibonacci retracement of this initial selloff. I am not even going to the May 6th low; I am at the level from last week. This is the 78% retracement, and it hit it on the high on Tuesday. The problem with this pattern is that the double top below the prior high at the 78% Fibonacci retracement is a pretty accurate downside signal. It is one that many traders play right off the bat. I am looking at a downside play on AAPL simply because it is in position to move lower. It may not do it. AAPL is a very strong stock, but this is an important move. If it stalls and continues lower especially with a gap you have an evening star doji, a gap lower, and you have a reversal signal. That would be a decent signal to move in and play the downside.
The interesting thing about AAPL is that the Department of Justice said it is looking into AAPL's business, particularly with respect to the music industry. It seems to have cornered the market on the music industry, kind of dictating what some of the studios and artists do. It has created the technology that everyone wants to use to play it, and that puts it in the position to do those types of things. This company has remade itself and is coming up with new technologies that have impacted millions of people. It has done a tremendous job of coming up with new technologies. If you go into many stores, there are hundreds of peripherals for iPhones and iPods. I am sure it will be the same for the iPad now. AAPL has spawned jobs not only within its company, but thousands upon thousands more throughout the economy here and the rest of the world in servicing its products and technology. As a reward to that, the Department of Justice is saying it is too successful and will investigate them.
Contrast that with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Those are two of the primary contributors to the financial collapse in 2008. They underwrote crap mortgages and passed them off as if they met the standards and could be packaged and sold. They were primary contributors to the crisis and the meltdown. How did they get rewarded? Did anyone get fired? Did heads roll? Maybe some people left, but they left with packages of $100M or more. Nice golden parachutes. The companies are still around and, not only that, now they will get unlimited funding to continue doing exactly what they did to cause the crisis. Now our lawmakers want more and more loans made, and they do not care who they are made to and what standards are used to do it. They want to get these mortgages out there.
They are right to a certain extent. We need to allow people who qualify to get mortgages because that is the way to come out of a recession. We are too strict on those wanting to borrow when things are getting better when they should be lending to them. Banks are still under restriction and are still concerned about making loans that are considered a bit risky. We need to make those loans, but the problem is we will have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out producing crap once more, and we will be the ones what have to pay for that. You and I paid for that the people who are actually making things work in the economy. It is those people who have jobs and are being productive and being entrepreneurs and have businesses that are producing the income that the tax revenue came from. All those who are responsible and practiced their own austerity and did not get overextended those are the ones who have to pay to bail out the very people who were not austere. They did not practice common sense or self-control and limit what they were spending.
Frankly, that is what is wrong with this country today. Everything we tend to do in this country rewards those who cause the problems. They get in trouble and are bailed out. It does not just happen to big banks, but it happens up and down the line except for those who are actually doing the work. They do not get bailed out because they have the means to protect themselves. Of course they do, and they should, but the problems is everyone else should be held to the same standard whether a company or an individual. We all have the means to protect ourselves. We all should train ourselves well enough to not get taken advantage of. I know I am getting on the soap box, but that is one of the problems we have. We bail out those who should be able to take care of themselves, and we use others to pay for it because they are the only ones with the money. That is just wrong, but that is the way it happens and the way it will continue to happen. And as we see with AAPL, if you become too successful, you are a victim. Whether it is the Department of Justice that says it will investigate your success, or it is just that you make a lot of money because you have a better idea or service that people want. Then you will be regulated and taxed more and more because you can afford it. It is an interesting thing that we have going on in the US, and it is why there is a bit of unrest in the country right now.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 35.54; +3.47
VXN: 36.23; +4.62
VXO: 34.86; +4.03
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.9; -0.31
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 39.3 versus 43.8%. Another substantial drop on top of the fall from 47.2% the prior week. Down from 56.0% before that, the high on this move, falling short of the 60% to 65% considered bearish, but not that short. As with horseshoes, it was close enough. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 29.2% versus 24.7%. After holding at 24.7% for two weeks the bears' ranks swelled after falling to 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: -34.71 points (-1.54%) to close at 2222.33
Volume: 2.043B (-3.79%)
Up Volume: 368.288M (-80.293M)
Down Volume: 1.747B (+109.573M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 4.58 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.11 to 1
New Highs: 35 (-1)
New Lows: 63 (+27)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -18.7 points (-1.72%) to close at 1070.71
NYSE Volume: 1.432B (-1.61%)
Up Volume: 106.725M (-142.116M)
Down Volume: 1.315B (+118.126M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 3.3 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.96 to 1
New Highs: 66 (-8)
New Lows: 58 (+21)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: -112.61 points (-1.11%) to close at 10024.02
Volume DJ30: 222M shares Tuesday versus 244M shares Friday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
WEDNESDAY
This short week started on Tuesday and will culminate on Friday with the jobs report. There is a lot on the way, including the ADP employment survey on Thursday, production activity, initial claims, continue claims, factory orders, and ISM services. This is all on the day before the jobs report. We are leading up to a big finale for the weekend. The market is peeling back from the oversold bounce last week, and we have a market still in its correction. It is flopping around like a fish, and it can stick you with its fins while it flops back and forth. That is what this market can do; it can stick you as it whips back and forth. We are at a point where there is key support on SP500, the NASDAQ, and the SOX. This range is key support. It is not given up yet, and it has been tested 3 times. They are coming back again to test. The more it tests and holds, the stronger the support tends to be if it can hold. It has held many times before, although the crash the 2008 wiped it out. It has now recovered that level.
We do not want to take too many full positions. We have been taking positions but do not want to overload on any particular one. We want to continue to take good risk/reward positions. When you have these stocks coming down in the bottom of ranges whether it is an index or stock that is a decent risk/reward. I see a lot of patterns that have set up, and they have clear points where we would want to get out and clear points where we would leave them to run. It is undecided right now whether it will roll back over. Indices are still at key support levels. The bias is still down, and everyone is very negative about the market. That is fine; we are in a correction. It is understandable, but we have to be able to keep our heads and watch what the going on even with the gloom out there.
We have some positions we took last week and the week before that are getting close to their stop points because of this two-day pullback. If they go down and it hits our stop point and does not rebound intraday, we will have to honor those. I do not want to risk them breaking down. We could still see them hit our stop points and see the market overall stop, hold these levels, and then rebound. If it does, fine. We will get back in if we need to, but we do not want to get caught in the event it comes down and hits our stop point, we do not get out, and it dives lower down to the next support. Avoid getting stuck as much as possible by the fish fins as it flops around on the deck. I will continue to look for stocks that are in good position in terms of risk/reward, whether it is upside or downside. They are setting up for a reason. If there is a bullish pattern setting up, it is for a reason. It may not pan out, but it is setting up. These patterns are patterns because they tend to set up and break higher. If they had never worked, you would not pay any attention to them. They work more times than not.
We will keep at it and keep playing what works. Do not become so gun shy that you do not do anything. Look at the 60 minute chart to give better entry points. Do not put all your money to work, and cut back on the size of your position. The market is in a correction. Maybe it will break down. Maybe it is telegraphing that the economy will collapse or slow down and double dip. If so, the market will break down, but we will see it do that. It will come back and test and we can play that. For now, it has not broken down. We will continue to look for patterns that set up upside or downside. These are patterns that historically prove to be winners. If they work and make the move, we will play them. We just cannot put everything we have at risk.
Those are the cards that the market is dealing, and we will play them. We will make some money off of it, too. We have to be smart and willing to say "we were wrong" sometimes and move on. When we are right, those have much more reward than they do risk, and that is where you make your money. Have a great evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2222.33
Resistance:
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
The 50 day EMA at 2345
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2434 is the May 2010 high
2453 is the August 2008 peak
Support:
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2229
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1070.71
Resistance:
1078 is the October range low
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1101 is the October 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 1105
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 1139
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
Support:
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,024.02
Resistance:
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,285
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
The 50 day EMA at 10,594
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
Support:
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
June 01 - Tuesday
Construction Spending, April (10:00): 2.7% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.2%)
ISM Index, May (10:00): 59.7 actual versus 59.4 expected, 60.4 prior (no revisions)
June 02 - Wednesday
Pending Home Sales, April (10:00): 4.3% expected, 5.3 prior
Crude Inventories, 05/29 (10:30): 2.46M prior
Auto Sales, May (14:00): 4.1M expected, 3.9M prior
Truck Sales, May (14:00): 4.8M expected, 4.9M prior
June 03 - Thursday
ADP Employment Survey, May (08:15): 56K expected, 32K prior
Productivity-Rev., Q1 (08:30): 3.4% expected, 3.6% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q1 (08:30): -1.6% expected, -1.6% prior
Initial Claims, 05/29 (08:30): 455K expected, 460K prior
Continuing Claims, 05/22 (08:30): 4600K expected, 4607K prior
Factory Orders, April (10:00): 1.7% expected, 1.3% prior
ISM Services, May (10:00): 55.5 expected, 55.4 prior
Crude Inventories, 05/29 (11:00): 2.46M prior
June 04 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, May (08:30): 500K expected, 290K prior
Unemployment Rate, May (08:30): 9.8% expected, 9.9% prior
Hourly Earnings, May (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Average Workweek, May (08:30): 34.1 expected, 34.1 prior
End part 1 of 3
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