|
|
us stock market, trend trading stock
* * * *
6/02/10 Investment House Alerts
* * *
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: ILMN; LNCR; PNRA; WYNN
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: LUFK
******************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Technical Summary, Economy, and the Next Session. This allows you to choose the segments you are interested in without having to find the segment in a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
MARKET OVERVIEW
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MarketOverview.wmv
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TechnicalSummary.wmv
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NextSession.wmv
*******************************************************************
SUMMARY:
- For this session, overseas negatives don't trump US data, President and VP comments re Friday jobs report.
- It stocks started higher, held off sellers, and rallied impressively, it must be Wednesday: back and forth shoving match continues.
- Pending home sales swamp expectations on last vestige of buyer's credit.
- Mortgage applications fall for forth week, coinciding with the end of the credit.
- Heated battle at same support keeps the upside bounce in play. January peak is still a possibility and would really help out the technical picture.
Market shows it is 'not dead yet,' rallies through negatives from Asia, Europe as buyers and sellers pound each other.
The bounce seen in the market, attempted over the past week, did its best impression of Monty Python and the Holy Grail saying, "It's not dead yet." The indices once again held important support levels and bounced. This is after the back and forth tennis match we have seen over the past two weeks. Whether talking about the SP500 or NASDAQ, stocks are bouncing back and forth above a key support level. This is very important because this is a long-term level that has held but for the 2008 collapse. For the past ten years since the 2000 recession and bear market these areas have held. They spent quite a bit of time here bouncing around, and that underscores what an important level it is. You can tell it is important whenever the market spends time at a level and slugs it out, particularly after this kind of severe drop. The bears have not won yet. The bulls have not won yet either, but it looks like they will be able to move higher and maybe test the January peak.
Unlike Tuesday, the overseas negatives did not trump the US data on this session. The President and Vice President made proclamations with respect to the jobs report, saying that it was going to be "well beyond" the last report. They are expecting around 500K jobs. They have seen the numbers they were leaked out, so they know it will be well beyond the 200K+ reported last time. We know it will be because of census workers and people hired by the government to clean up the Gulf. This oil spill added to the mix will be part of the employment we are seeing, but you cannot have an oil spill every month to ramp up the jobs. That is a shame; it would be a dynamic economy with a jobs market built upon census taking and oil spill cleanup. It is all somewhat of a joke, but people will be happy about this because it shows there is money being moved in the economy. Seems like if you spend $787M you can get a few government jobs out of it. It is not enough because they want to spend $200B more in a supplemental jobs package. Am I a bit bitter? Maybe not bitter, but just tired. I am tired of the same failed policies they have tried in the past and in the depression in the 1970's. They are trying to do it again. They say free enterprise is a failed policy and then think that government subsidies are real capitalism. But I digress.
The Japanese Prime Minister announced his retirement, and that bounced the Japanese market for a bit before it rolled back over. Hong Kong retail sales were a snappy 16%. Of course, when you expect 17% that is a letdown. Hong Kong was down. There are reports out that the bank default swaps are still rising. Prices are getting higher and higher, and that shows there is continued concern about the viability of the European banks. Fortunately LIBOR stayed the same at 0.54% where it has held for three days straight. That is some kind of record after it started its run up from 0.21%. It has been on a steady rise ever since, but this is the first plateau in a long time. There are more issues in the EU; every day there is something new. Greece is selling its stake in a lot of its public industries such as the railroads, water facilities, and casinos. It is going private and learning the value of efficiency. It is cutting fixed costs in the government and having private enterprise which can be more efficient do the job. It would be something if Greece turns into a capitalist country and leads Europe out of the trouble. Iran said it is selling 45B Euros in exchange for dollars and gold. It seems it does not want to be heavily invested in the Euro. You have to wonder what Gisele the Brazilian model wants. About a year and a half ago she wanted to be paid in Euros because the dollar was so weak. I wonder if she still wants those Euros. Portugal had a bond auction and were actually able to find buyers, but they had to offer four times the yield they offered in March in order to move them. That is a deal. Sell your bonds and pay four times as much but, hey, who cares? Look at the US. Our debt-to-GDP ratio right now is 90%, and that is before the extra $200B jobs package is passed. Our debt is 90% of our GDP. This is absurd, but it did not matter to the US market on Wednesday because the futures were higher.
The market started higher. There was the gap in the futures, the market tested early, and then it was to the upside all day. In the afternoon there was the leak from the Vice President about jobs, and then the President reiterated it. Then we were off to the races to the close. NASDAQ +2.6%; Dow +2.25%, up 225 points; SP500 +2.6%; SOX +3.6%; SP600 +2.8%; NASDAQ 100 +2.4%. Notice NASDAQ 100 was less than NASDAQ overall after the NASDAQ large caps led the move on Tuesday. They showed much more relative strength than the rest of the market thanks to AAPL, but they took a back seat as everything moved higher on Wednesday. Everything either moves down or everything moves up. It is feast or famine as the buyers and sellers have a knock-down-drag-out. They are going toe to toe and hitting each other each day. Again, the important point is that they are taking shots at each other at this support level. Thus far it has not cracked, and that is a positive for the bulls at least in getting this oversold bounce to move up higher toward the January range.
The interesting thing about the US data trumping that of Europe and Asia is that it was somewhat illusory. The jobs report on Friday and will be mostly made up of oil spill cleanup and census jobs. That is not going to bring in new jobs. When census workers are hired, it does not mean more censuses need to be produced. The same with oil spills. Just because there are a bunch of people put to work to clean an oil spill, is that something you want to do all the time? Of course not. Maybe the federal government will buy more of the things it was supposed to have the in place (boons, etc.) to be ready for the next spill to help boost the economy, but that in itself is short lived. Pending home sales were just a rush ahead of the end of the first time buyer's tax credit. Those are pending sales those with contracts on them get the advantage of continuing credit into the end of this month. We also know that the purchased mortgages for the week were down 4%, and that means down four weeks in a row. That is surprisingly coincident with the end of the first time buyer's credit, and they were also down 40% month-over-month. Tremendous drop after the end of that tax credit in April.
OTHER MARKETS.
Just as Tuesday was marked by the return of the fear trade in a big way, Wednesday was marked by the return to the hope trade.
Dollar. The dollar closed a bit weaker. It was stronger premarket due to Iran selling the Euros in favor of dollars, but by the close it had weakened (1.2243 Euros versus 1.2232 Tuesday). It is still moving laterally, forming something of a pennant after a strong move. In other words, the dollar does not look to be in any trouble here. It is just taking a breather after a strong run higher.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Bonds. With the fear trade off the table, bonds were selling in the US. There was no fear to bring buyers running to the safety of US Treasuries. The treasury that was flat early on at 3.26% on the 10 year ended up closing at 3.35%. Another huge run. It bounced right back up to where it sold from on Tuesday. Still holding this level, still holding at near support, but running into headwinds as there is some hope coming into the mix. I wonder if that hope is only that the news out of Europe is so familiar now and is no longer as scary. In other words, if there is a crisis but everyone becomes numb to it, do you really have a crisis anymore? That is a stupid question, but it is one that I have heard people talk about, believe it or not. Yes, we are still in a crisis. Until the problem is solved, it is a crisis because the potential for the downside is still tremendous. There. Answered that one. Regardless, there was no fear on Wednesday and people left some US bonds. They did not break down by any stretch of the imagination.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg
Gold. Since there was no fear, gold did not do too well on the session. Note there was no catastrophic drop, however. Indeed, it was holding above that late 2009 peak the prior all-time high. Gold faded, but just slightly ($1,225.20, -1.70.). It is holding at that level, and still has no reason to go down because why would it? If the economies are going to do well with the US debt-to-GDP ratio at 90% and $1.25T in junk assets on the Fed's balance sheet, the chance of inflation is quite high. There would be no reason for gold to sell in that case.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Oil. Oil actually posted a fractional gain to the upside ($72.86, +0.25). Not a big move, but after the bounce off the lows in the trading range, it is coming back to test. That is normal action, and we may get more of a pop here. We are coming into the summer drive season, and there may be some pent-up consumer demand out there to get out and move around. Although there are predictions that they will be running out of cash pretty soon.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
As you can see from the markets, the fear trade was off for Wednesday and replaced by more of a calm, "We shall overcome" attitude. The thinking is that the US and its economic data will help Europe and the others out of trouble. We will see about that. Depressions tend to be up and down. There are bull runs inside of a secular bear market, there are upturns in the economy inside of an overall depression.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
INTERNALS
Breadth. Once again breadth was strong. 4:1 upside on NASDAQ after a 4.6:1 on the downside the prior session. Big downside, big upside. It is a slug match. Bears strike one day and the bulls strike back the next day. The bulls and bears are fighting it out at a key level. As much time as they are spending there and as much volatility up and down we are seeing, it is a very important level. Advantage swung to the bulls on Wednesday. The NYSE had 4.7:1 advancers over decliners, and that trumped the 3.3:1 decliners over advancers on Tuesday. There is even more strength on the NYSE, and you can bet a lot of that is because the small cap SP600 rose 2.8%. It does not hurt when the most populated sector of stocks in the market leads the market higher in terms of percentage gains.
Volume. There was an increase in volume on NASDAQ, up 2.5%. At only at 2.1B, however, that is rather light given the recent trade leading into the selling and then the actual selling during May. Volume was down on the NYSE, falling to 1.3B shares. That puts it back just near average and the lowest volume of late. Of course that is not a good thing. When there is an upside session and a powerful-looking one given the percentage gains it is just not that strong. At least the volume is not commensurate with such a powerful move. That lends to the fact that this is more than likely still part of the oversold bounce that looks to get it up near the January peak. It may go higher, but that has to be the logical initial target. The move is not showing that much power to the upside and is just on that light volume. The internals were solidly upside, but we have seen them solidly downside on the down days. It is a back and forth slugfest.
CHARTS
SP500. SP500 was at important long-term lows that have held, and then the February low it undercut last week only to reverse intraday to hold that level. After that test lower, it has stuck at this longer-term support line that is roughly where the SP500 opened on Wednesday around 1075. This is an important level it has held, and it is now bouncing. Up and down, back and forth. It looks as if this amount of time spent here would yield a bounce up to the January high. I do not know that for sure, but the indications from the way individual stocks are acting suggest there is an interim bounce in the cards near term before any more significant selling. A news story could come out to wreck that, but I do not think so especially with the President and Vice President coming out today. I believe the market is going to rally up into the number on Friday. That means it could go up Thursday, and then maybe it will spike higher on the number and then gets close to that January peak and reverses. Remember, a lot of this will be built in the market ahead of the number given the leaks. If that is the case if the market rallies in anticipation of the number when the number hits, you could see the spike higher and then the reversal. If that is the case and it bumps up in that January range and starts to beat a hasty retreat, we might need to start taking some of the upside off the table. It may not be the huge gains we want, but it would be more like the gains we were expecting on this bounce up to that level.
NASDAQ. Very similar action on the NASDAQ. The test, the prior low, holding this very important support level near 2175-2185. It made a higher low above it and bounced off the 200 day EMA. A little ABCD action perhaps, and then bouncing and testing the 200 day EMA and bouncing higher. It looks like this January peak is easily within reach of NASDAQ. When you consider that the high is at 2326 and NASDAQ closed at 2281 after a 58-point gain, you can see it does not take much to get NASDAQ back up to the January peak. Indeed, it could blow through and come up to the May peak, closing at 2425. That is a bit more of a run, but when you have a few days like today, it is not that far away.
SP600. SP600 was the relative leader on the day, and again bounced off the January peak. We will see if they can lead to the upside, make a move back up toward this March peak, and on up maybe even to the May peak at 382 closing. Given they closed at 352, that is a very nice run for the small caps and our IWM upside play.
SOX. The semiconductors have been showing relative strength, and they were up 3.6% on the day having made this double bottom, something of a handle and now trying to break higher. This is a key point. They are right at that level not only the 50 day EMA, but the January peak. That will be the key level for the SOX, for NASDAQ, and for SP500 over the next few sessions (maybe even less than that). Again, there is the jobs report on Friday, and there is great anticipation moving into that. A lot of anticipation is getting built in the market. If we have a spike higher on Friday, we could see the indices hit the January peak or near the January peak and then come under pressure as the sellers move back in.
LEADERSHIP
Retail. The retailers are one again moving well. PNRA started higher after a two-day sidestep as the market sold. The stock that does not sell when the market sells is primed to bounce as the market recovers. That is exactly what it is doing, and it is in good share shape to move higher. TJX is the same situation. It sidestepped two days while the market sold, and it tapped at the 50 day EMA and is moving higher on rising volume. You can see this many times over. ROST cleared recent peaks on rising volume. Retail is doing what retail has done: Leading the market. Now it is leading the market out of retail's correction, and we will see if the rest of the market can follow.
Health. Even on a good day, some defense was still working. LNCR performed quite well, blasting higher on strong volume, giving us the buy we were looking for.
Metals. Out of pullbacks that turn into cut bases, you often see a reverse head and shoulders at the bottom of the cup. FCX sold off to support, bounced, and undercut that original support (but holding other support). It bounced again, coming back down to the top range of the support and starting to bounce. There was one shoulder, head, and then there could be a shoulder number two that leads it to the upside. I have a position in FCX, but if you are not in it, you could look to move into FCX roughly in this range once it breaks its trendline. MTL is like this as well. It sold off, bounced lower. There was the head, coming down to the neckline again, and maybe there is a shoulder forming. Another interesting play is AKS. Here you have the selloff, the bounce, the further selloff, the bounce, and coming back down. It looks like it could be moving for the break, and then you would have your reverse head and shoulders as it comes in over this point. That would be the buy as it breaks higher. Not a bad-looking play. STLD is the same thing. It is not as neat a pattern as the others, but you get the idea.
Industrials. JOYG had a selloff, recovery, and a lower low at another support level. Then a bounce, a pullback, matching the closing levels roughly, and then it is moving back up. Left shoulder, head, right shoulder. Could it be it has set up an inverse head and shoulder as well, and is actually making the break right at the break point now. Very interesting. CMI is not the same kind of pattern. You like to see these at the bottom of a selloff, but it is interesting because it is having a bit of a turn. Interesting pattern. Not sure if we will be able to get a buy off of it, although you could make a trade on it maybe up to the 76 level.
Energy (gas). Gas producers got a little reprieve today with good news out saying the coal seam gas could still work given the moratorium on offshore drilling. The shallower offshore could still work as well. Some of the shallower well drillers and gas drillers such as CHK enjoyed a nice break higher. There was almost the reverse head and shoulders, but you have a trendline that looks like it is trying to get broken. It is close to popping through the downtrend line. SWN is trying to crack through a trendline as well. It is sporting good volume as it does so. Interestingly, as price made a new low in May, notice how MACD did not make a new low. Here is a higher price with a lower MACD. Here in May, a lower price with a higher MACD. That is a divergent bottom. You are seeing momentum come back into the stock.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX. After these big spikes and higher lows, the VIX has fallen, bounced, and now looks like it is threatening to break lower. This is kind of the bull's ace in the hole. When the highs are hit and there are super surges in the VIX, the move upside does not come immediately. We have seen the market chop around after that, and now it looks to be gaining a little traction at those key long-term support levels. The VIX was down 15% on Wednesday as the market caught hold of some footing and jumped. This indicates that there is a bounce coming, but it is also an indication that it may not be a huge bounce. It could be a solid move that gets us back to the January peak, and then we will get more insight as to what the market will do overall.
VIX: 30.17; -5.37
VXN: 31; -5.23
VXO: 28.56; -6.3
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.89; -0.01
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 39.3 versus 43.8%. Another substantial drop on top of the fall from 47.2% the prior week. Down from 56.0% before that, the high on this move, falling short of the 60% to 65% considered bearish, but not that short. As with horseshoes, it was close enough. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 29.2% versus 24.7%. After holding at 24.7% for two weeks the bears' ranks swelled after falling to 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +58.74 points (+2.64%) to close at 2281.07
Volume: 2.096B (+2.59%)
Up Volume: 1.953B (+1.585B)
Down Volume: 213.122M (-1.533B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.04 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.58 to 1
New Highs: 26 (-9)
New Lows: 71 (+8)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +27.67 points (+2.58%) to close at 1098.38
NYSE Volume: 1.352B (-5.65%). Disappointing volume with the trade falling as the index shot higher.
Up Volume: 1.281B (+1.174B)
Down Volume: 63.333M (-1.251B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.67 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 3.3 to 1
New Highs: 77 (+11)
New Lows: 59 (+1)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +225.52 points (+2.25%) to close at 10249.54
Volume DJ30: 200M shares Wednesday versus 222M shares Tuesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
THURSDAY
We have had quite a bit of data already this week. There was good news on Tuesday with construction spending, and the ISM was better than expected. It was a bit down but still at a very decent level. Wednesday the Challenger job cuts were better; they were down 65%. That was not as much as the 71% decline before, but still heading in the right direction. That means there are fewer and fewer job cuts being announced. Of course at some point you cannot announce any more job cuts, and the end of firing does not always mean the beginning of hiring. Usually you stop firing people, go through the period of trying to recover and doing the best you can, increasing productivity as much as possible before getting to the point where you have to start hiring again. We will find out more about that on Thursday when we get the revisions to the Q1 productivity report. That is expected to be written down a bit to 3.3% from 3.6%, but productivity has been extremely high. The reason is that companies are trying to make do without hiring people and are ramping up productivity any way they can. It happens in every recession/depression, and that is what is happening here. Productivity has had all the gain it can get, and now we will probably start seeing more hiring. We have started to see it already, even though most of it has been government so far. Although the household survey has been a positive indication for the market.
Tomorrow there are also initial jobless claims. They are expected to hover around 450K. No real change. We will see factory orders and the services the twin of the PMI or the ISM manufacturing report. It is expected to hold around 55, and it is less than the manufacturing. It is not experiencing the same kind of growth that the manufacturing is showing us. Inventories will be out; they were delayed today. They should be quite high with all the oil washing up on the Louisiana shore.
This leads up to the Friday non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate. They are expecting the unemployment rate to drop, and some say it could drop even lower than the 9.8% expected. That is not normally what you anticipate. Usually as the job market improves, unemployment rate jumps up because more people enter into the workforce and cannot find work. Therefore the overall unemployment rate rises even though more jobs are being created. As I discussed, these jobs are all related to the census and the oil clean up, and also state and local trying to keep policemen and teachers hired. It is going to be a number that people will feel good about because it is not negative. It is not just 50K, but it is getting up to a respectable range. 500K juxtaposed against 455K looks pretty good. Of course this is a monthly number and that is a weekly number. These are new claims, not just continuing claims. The workweek is expected to rise as well. Most of the productivity you can get has been squeezed from workers. Now they have to work them more as opposed to getting the next new machine to get more productivity out of them.
It was a good day for the bulls on Wednesday with a bounce off key support levels on SP500 and NASDAQ. It looks like the oversold bounce is not dead yet. It had every chance, opportunity, and reason to sell off with the Friday and Tuesday drops, but it caught support at the key support level and bounced. There are many stocks that are in solid position and are ready to move up. While it is not a done deal, it looks like we will get the move up into this January range for the SP500. NASDAQ could move past that on into the early May peak level. We can make some money on our upside plays from there. There are still some upside plays I would like to take a look at, like some of the metals stocks that look like they have a reverse head and shoulders set up and maybe some of the industrials that are in the same place. Maybe even some of the gas stocks that are trying to break their downtrend line and give a trend reversal. Those would be nice additions because there is plenty of room to run off of those support levels as well.
Again, we will not load up on any position too much; it is not that kind of market yet. It is still in the game of bashing back and forth. You have one day up, two days down. One day up will we get a day down or two days down after this? Do we make a little bit higher low and build off of that? We will see what we can get and will be watching these plays. We will see if we can pick our shots to the upside and get good buys and entry points to maximize our gain on the bounce to the upside. Remember, this is not a gain we will have a long courtship with and then get married. It is one we will date for a week or two and see how it works out. If it is not perfect, we will move on. We want to take good stocks in position to move. We will ride them higher for as long as we can until they give out, and then we will dump them. That looks like it will be the case given the action at this support level and the unwillingness to give up this level when it has had every opportunity to do so of late.
We will continue to look for a few more upside positions. We will take some nice ones that can be good vehicles to the upside to make us money. When we get up to the January peak it probably will not be a straight shot. Even though today was a big day, so was last Thursday and it gave it all back and had to start over again. It is probably going to be a jagged climb higher, but when it gets there, we will have to reevaluate what is going on. We will take gain off the table, and if it still looks decent maybe we will leave some and maybe get a pop through. Who knows, maybe it will even challenge the April peak. I am not holding my breath for that one, but you never know. Remember, the market tends to move more than you would logically or rationally expect it to move. Bounces can bounce further and trends can run further than you would expect. That is not often because they are usually pretty logical when you have clear-cut resistance, but it can move further as the pendulum swings and overshoots in the near term. Have a great evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2281.07
Resistance:
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
The 50 day EMA at 2343
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2434 is the May 2010 high
2453 is the August 2008 peak
Support:
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2231
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1098.38
Resistance:
1101 is the October 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 1106
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 1137
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
Support:
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,249.54
Resistance:
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,290
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
The 50 day EMA at 10,580
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
Support:
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
June 01 - Tuesday
Construction Spending, April (10:00): 2.7% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.2%)
ISM Index, May (10:00): 59.7 actual versus 59.4 expected, 60.4 prior (no revisions)
June 02 - Wednesday
Challenger Job Cuts, May (07:30): -65.1% actual versus -71.1% prior
Pending Home Sales, April (10:00): 6.0% actual versus 4.3% expected, 7.1% prior (revised from 5.3%)
Auto Sales, May (14:00): 4.1M expected, 3.9M prior
Truck Sales, May (14:00): 4.8M expected, 4.9M prior
June 03 - Thursday
ADP Employment Change, May (08:15): 60K expected, 32K prior
Productivity-Rev., Q1 (08:30): 3.3% expected, 3.6% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q1 (08:30): -1.6% expected, -1.6% prior
Initial Claims, 05/29 (08:30): 455K expected, 460K prior
Continuing Claims, 05/22 (08:30): 4600K expected, 4607K prior
Factory Orders, April (10:00): 1.7% expected, 1.3% prior
ISM Services, May (10:00): 55.6 expected, 55.4 prior
Crude Inventories, 05/29 (11:00): 2.46M prior
June 04 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, May (08:30): 500K expected, 290K prior
Unemployment Rate, May (08:30): 9.8% expected, 9.9% prior
Hourly Earnings, May (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Average Workweek, May (08:30): 34.2 expected, 34.1 prior
End part 1 of 3
|
us stock market
trend trading stock
|
