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us stock market, trade stock
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6/03/2010 Investment House Daily
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Technical Summary, Economy, and the Next Session. This allows you to choose the segments you are interested in without having to find the segment in a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
MARKET OVERVIEW
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http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MarketOverview.wmv
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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SUMMARY:
- SP500 posts its first back to back gain since April, but still cannot get through the 200 day SMA.
- US economic data improves but less than expected.
- May Same store sales are up but definitely a mixed bag.
- Jobless claims still at 450K, ADP less than expected, but Friday jobs whisper is 700K non-farm jobs.
- NASDAQ ready to take on its January high as growth tries to take the lead on this bounce.
- Jobs expectations are pretty high and baked in. Market needs a high number and quality, i.e. not all census workers and oil spill wipers, or the bounce may top out.
Growth emerges as the possible next leader.
Believe it or not, Wednesday and Thursday were the first back-to-back upside days for the SP500 since late April. Just as the rally from February through April peaked, there were two days upside. After that, there has not been one upside day juxtaposed with another until this week. We had to go through the early-May flash crash. There was the bounce, the selloff to undercut the February lows, and then the bounce from there. Even that bounce was not one that looked like it wanted to stick; each day it was up and down until Wednesday and Thursday. Is this a sign that there will be a continued rally now? That the SP500 will make it up to the January peaks? It may, but I am not sure if SP500 will do the leading. It gained 0.4% on the session, but NASDAQ pulled off almost a 1% gain as it bounced for a second time to the upside as well. It is knocking on the door of its January peak already. It was a day where the growth stocks were in control. Where the Dow barely scratched positive, the NASDAQ posted a 1% gain, the SP600 small caps (a growth area), posted a 1.1% gain. The small caps are also knocking at the door of next resistance. It is not its January peak because it never broke that level, but the next resistance is the March consolidation that led into the April break to the upside. There was the oversold bounce that started but never not underway, and now we have two back-to-back days to the upside with growth stocks and growth indices moving out in front of the rest of the market. This very well could be the impetus that the market needs to make the break higher.
The jobs report comes out on Friday, and that will be key. The jobs report has a lot of expectations built into it; the whisper number is up to 700K versus the official number which is closer to 500K. There is a lot of positive built into the market, so that leaves room for disappointment if the jobs are not there or the quality of the jobs is not there. Remember, a lot of these will be census workers and those hired to clean up the oil spill. The extra jobs may not be the quality that investors want to bring it over to the next level and break through this resistance. There is always the possibility of an upside surprise, of course. The President and Vice President were very happy about the numbers that were leaked to them, and they could not wait until the Friday report to talk about it. We already know the number will be up, and the market is moving higher into that number. We will see what happens.
It definitely was not a day without news. The ADP report came out, and it is the warm-up for the official government jobs report. It came in a bit light at 55K versus 60K expected, but the prior month was written up 65K versus 35K. Follow the bouncing ball. Who knows what it will be and whether it will predict correctly. It was a bit lighter, and a lot of the data on Thursday (as well as the rest of the week) was somewhat light compared to expectations. Usually you like to see the numbers beating expectations. That shows the experts are not anticipating the strength to be what it truly is. Now they are expecting more strength than there actually is in the economy, and that is not necessarily a good thing. The ECRI report said there would be noticeable slowdown in the US. That goes with the double-dip slowdown in late summer that I talked about in the spring. We will have to see how it goes, but the economic data was pointing along that line.
Same store sales for May came in mixed. There were two themes out there: Number one, the teen retailers did not perform that well. Teen retailers are a sign of jobs; if the teens cannot get jobs, then they are not buying as much. The second was that the discounters are still outperforming. They are getting most of the dollars, and that means consumers are still worried about the future overall. They are not ready to go to boutique stores and spend their money, or maybe they do not have the money or do not anticipate it coming down the road. Whatever the reason, they are still holding back. Consumers often say one thing and do the other. There came a point of pent-up demand when they wanted to spend some money. They spent it, but now they are pulling back somewhat.
Those two reports got the market moving, and it picked up right where it left off on Wednesday. Strong open, continued higher through the first hour, and then faded back to test mid-morning. It came back from lunch and tested furtherer. It broke down below the opening level, but it held and SP500 was able to scratch out a modest gain at the close. It was not an all-to-the-upside surge, but there was never any real danger for the market to come back and roll over. It was just sluggish midday and then managed to make the turn to the upside. The reports that came out mid-morning were not bad. There was the final of Q1 productivity, and it was at 2.8% versus 3.3% expected and 3.6% reported the first time. Productivity has gone down. You can only get so much out of productivity before it has to start dissipating and you have to hire people. That is a positive with respect to the jobs report on Friday. Unit labor costs fell to -1.3%, less than the -1.6% expected. Jobless claims were still at the pesky 450-level, holding at 453K. That was a bit better than the 455K expected and was down from the 463K the week before. Continuing claims bounced up, 4.66M versus 4.6M expected and prior.
All in all the news was not bad, but it was not blockbuster. I have a feeling that will be the case with the jobs report as well: It will not be bad, but it will not be a blockbuster because of the quality of the jobs created. Indeed, MS thinks that 417K jobs out of what is reported Friday will be based on census workers. That is a huge block of workers that will be temporary and will not provide the continued push to the upside for the economy. Just like oil spills you cannot have one of them ever couple of months in order to hire more government workers to clean it up. It is all about the velocity of the recovery right now. It is slowing down a bit, and we will have to see if that is enough to push the market to the upside on Friday after the jobs report.
OTHER MARKETS.
Dollar. The dollar was up on the session as it continues its three-week lateral consolidation. Nice surge, and it has a pennant forming here. Looks like it is trying to resolve it to the upside which would make sense. After all, Iran says it wants to buy dollars and gold versus Euros. Certainly the dollar should rally sharply on that news. Nonetheless, the dollar scored a gain (1.2159 Euros versus 1.2243 Wednesday). It did open the session lower, so it was a nice reversal off the low as the buyers picked it up. It drove it right back to the top of its rally range. We will see if it makes the breakout this time around.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Bonds. Bonds lost more of their mojo. They were sold again (US 10 year yield 3.37% versus 3.35% Wednesday). Wednesday was the big hit because the 10 year was trading in the 3.24% range before Wednesday and the big selloff. There is still a selloff ongoing in bonds, and that would make sense if the economy is improving and the Fed will raise interest rates. Indeed, with some of the Federal Reserve members like Hoenig saying he would like to see the rate at 1% by the end of summer, it seems they are beginning talk of moving the rates back up again. Remember, they did this before the EU and Greece issues, but had to put it off the table when that news hit. Now they feel things may be under control and are floating it out once more. One of the members even said it would be very good and would be, in effect, an interest rate hike if the Fed removed its extended period language from its statement. Now that they are trotting that out, you can bet that the next meeting will be where they actually drop the extended period language. They are preparing us for that move. Bonds are pulling back on the news as one would expect them to do if the Fed will start raising interest rates.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg
Gold. Gold tumbled down now with talk about raising interest rates. That is not good for gold because it thrives on inflation. If the Fed raises interest rates to undercut any jump up in inflation, then gold loses some of its luster, so to speak. Gold closed lower ($1,208.70, -13.90). Still in its uptrend, but note how it came back below the late 2009 peak. It is not necessarily in any danger, however. It is interesting to watch because there is a pullback near the 78% Fibonacci retracement. We will have to see how it bounces up off this pullback and what it does at that level when it comes back up one more time.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Oil. Oil enjoyed a nice session ($74.48, +1.62). Inventory was much less than expected at -1.9M barrels, and oil was consequently able to reignite its move off its low. It made a small double bottom at the bottom of its range, bounced, came back and tested with a flag, and now it is bouncing again. That is a good indication that oil is ready to continue the bounce higher inside of its range. After all, if Europe is under control (which seems to be the consensus the past couple of days), then oil should be valued higher. It is bouncing inside of its range. That is a normal play and what it has done for the past seven and a half months. It has bounced up and down inside this one trading range.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
The markets were mixed overall. It was more of an "anticipation of better times ahead" trade versus the fear trade that dominated much of the action earlier in the week. Based upon that, the upside is resuming as a matter of course. That is sending the growth indices NASDAQ, SP600, and the SOX up toward their next resistance as they lead the bounce. It is a lukewarm bounce at this point, however, but they are trying to take over and lead the bounce higher. If growth is leading, the bounce should gain in quality. What really needs to happen is that the financials begin to show leadership and bounce up as well. That is not happening just yet.
TECHNICAL PICTURE
INTERNALS
Volume. Volume was a bit better with NASDAQ moving up 2% to 2.13B shares, but that is still rather light overall. The NYSE fell almost 10%, dropping to 1.2B. That puts NASDAQ still below average and SP500 right above that range. It is still struggling a bit after posting very solid volume in the prior weeks.
Breadth. The advance/decline line was very weak. 1.6:1 on NASDAQ and 1.6:1 on the NYSE. Not a lot of strength there not the kind of power we have seen on the strong upside and downside days. Remember, it has been either strong to the upside or strong to the downside; there have been very few days in between. The Dow the large cap NYSE indices were unable to move with any strength while the growth areas did start moving. It did take them awhile to get on track, however. We will see how this progresses. I am not reading too much into the breadth on the session, just that it was not the kind of strong move we have seen of late.
CHARTS
SP500. The SP500 moved up to 1105 on the high, and that is right at the 200 day EMA and where a lot of technicians are looking to see what is happening with the SP500. Obviously it was unable to make a significant move higher through that level. That puts in question whether it will be able to make it up to the January peak. It can still do it, but it does not act as if it wants to lead.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ, however, is acting as if it wants to lead. It had a 1% gain, and it is already at its January peak or knocking at the door. That will be an important level for it. When the jobs report comes out, it will either make or break the move for NASDAQ at that point. After that you are looking at the peak of the move in early May that closed out at 2425. That is another 120 points from where we are right now which is plenty of room to move to the upside for this bounce. NASDAQ looks as if it is taking over some leadership and doing so along with the SP600.
SP600. There is no major breakout here. It does not look as pretty as the NASDAQ with respect to making a higher high. Indeed, it still has to worry about last week's high. It did hold over the January peak and is bouncing up to the March consolidation. That is probably part of the reason it had trouble breaking through last week. The rest of the market was not ready to make the move. SP600 was a bit premature, and after it faded back to the bottom and held the January peak again, it seems ready to make the move. It started to bounce higher, and this will be the important breakout point. If so, you will be looking back up at the early May peak.
SOX. SOX has shown relative strength. It is starting to make the break up through the range that marks the January peak. It is breaking through the bottom of that range right now. As it does so it clears this lateral series of days where it could not break through. It is starting to do that, and we are seeing better action overall in growth and of course semiconductors are growth areas. After a little double bottom at the 200 day EMA, it may be trying to make the breakout to perhaps challenge the bottom of this prior range at the April peak up near 395.
LEADERSHIP
Internet. Internet stocks have been showing some life. AKAM is one we have been playing and have a couple of positions on. It made a significant breakout the past two days, particularly on Thursday. It showed great volume as it gapped higher to a new rally high. Hard to complain about this kind of action, and it is obviously a leader. GOOG is trying to make a comeback of its own. It has an almost double bottom with handle, making a higher low and breaking to the upside off that May flash crash. It still has serious resistance from back in late January through February, but it is picking up and performing better.
Semiconductors. The semiconductors were one of the leaders and are showing relative strength. SNDK is a play I have been in for awhile, and it is looking quite nice as it sets up a lateral move in seeming anticipation of another break to the upside. VSEA posted a solid gain on some nice volume. It is not a great pattern, but it is making a higher low and bouncing. NVLS moved higher. Not a lot of volume on this move, which is a bit disconcerting, but it kind of gapped and ran. I am kicking myself for not getting into it. The chips are looking good overall and can provide leadership moving ahead.
Energy. There is definitely a mixed picture in energy. The gas players are spiking higher. CHK is making another break higher, this time as volume surges. SWN is making another surge higher the second in a row, turning to the upside on strong volume as well. Contrast that with some of the other players that are more in oil or integrated such as CVX. It is trying to make a move, but looks like the market overall: Trying to bounce but struggling. APA is trying to make a move as well, but it cannot get any traction at the moment.
Financials. The financials are trying to find their footing. JPM is up off its lows where it did hold a support range and bounced. As with the market, it cannot get that additional traction to bounce it higher. GS is in the same boat as well. It bounced up through a support level it broke, and now it is moving flatline along that level. That is not necessarily bad. In a good consolidation, flatline can be a positive. We want to see that break higher from here. It has a serious resistance point from the February lows, but a good consolidation right below that level would give it the power and strength to make the move.
Metals. Some of the metals I talked about last night were showing something of an inverted head and shoulders that could send the stock higher. They have not abandoned that, but they were not able to do anything with it on Thursday. They basically stalled out and held their position, so we have to wait and reload another day. AKS and FCX are doing roughly the same thing. After the good bounce on Wednesday, FCX pulled right back Thursday but is holding at that February support. It is defining that right shoulder a bit more. I do not have a problem with that as long as it holds and continues the move higher.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 29.46; -0.71
VXN: 29.38; -1.62
VXO: 28.78; +0.22
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.08; +0.19. Still more puts sold on an upside day.
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 39.3 versus 43.8%. Another substantial drop on top of the fall from 47.2% the prior week. Down from 56.0% before that, the high on this move, falling short of the 60% to 65% considered bearish, but not that short. As with horseshoes, it was close enough. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 29.2% versus 24.7%. After holding at 24.7% for two weeks the bears' ranks swelled after falling to 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +21.96 points (+0.96%) to close at 2303.03
Volume: 2.139B (+2.04%)
Up Volume: 1.676B (-277.042M)
Down Volume: 486.699M (+273.577M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.64 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.04 to 1
New Highs: 54 (+28)
New Lows: 27 (-44)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +4.45 points (+0.41%) to close at 1102.83
NYSE Volume: 1.221B (-9.69%)
Up Volume: 761.673M (-519.054M)
Down Volume: 444.581M (+381.248M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.63 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.67 to 1
New Highs: 101 (+24)
New Lows: 41 (-18)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +5.74 points (+0.06%) to close at 10255.28
Volume DJ30: 177M shares Thursday versus 200M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
FRIDAY
Of course the jobs report will dominate Friday after a slew of data all week long. On Thursday the ISM services came out at 55.4. That was not bad, but it was less than the 55.6 expected and essentially matched what was shown in April. No real improvement kind of like the rest of the economy right now. Factory orders were 1.2%, but they were expected to come in at 1.7%. At least the prior was revised upward to 1.7% from 1.3%. There is traction here; it is just not a sprinter racing ahead. I have no issues with that. You cannot be running at a sprint every month. The market has to pull back and take it easy a bit, but no one wants that to happen with respect to the jobs report. 500K expected, and the whisper is at 700K. 9.8% on the unemployment rate, coming down from 9.9%. That is kind of incongruent with what usually happens. When things get better, people usually come into the market thinking that the jobs are there when they are not. Then we get more people in the market than there are jobs and the unemployment rate jumps up. Now they are betting on an offset, and that would be entrepreneurs and independents starting their own businesses and getting things running forward from there. That is where they are expecting some change, and it may be so. We will see.
We will also be looking at the average workweek. It has been moving up a tick every month, and they are expecting it to tick up to 34.2. If it does not if any of these come short obviously there will be problems because the market has built in gains moving into the number. Albeit, with SP500, not a lot of gains thus far. It has bounced off the low, but it has not made much of a move thus far and has had trouble twice at the 200 day EMA. On the other hand, NASDAQ is doing better. We will take our queue from NASDAQ and what it does. It is almost up to its January peak at 2325, and if it hits that level and falls back, that will be instructive. If we have a reversal tomorrow after the number, that will be instructive as well. It would indicate this bounce may be over before it got much of a start.
It still looks like there is upside here. I hate to always be Pollyanna looking for the upside, but as I said back when NASDAQ tested its February low and SP500 undercut its low and reversed, that shows there were buyers there. They were not ready to take it down yet, and it has been pesky. It has not given up yet; they keep holding and trying to move higher. Indeed, all of them cracked over the four-day peak where they just could not break through before. They all broke it on Thursday, so there is something more here than just a typical "we will just bounce it for a day and then sell it off." To this point, it has not been able to mount a significant jump to the upside. Thus, while I still expect upside, you are looking at the quality and just how far it can go. I do not think this is the move that will take the market to new highs. I still think there is further consolidation along the way. Indeed, at best, I feel it is halfway through this correction before it can continue to try to move higher. That is fine. We just have to recognize we are in a bounce now.
This jobs report will tell us a lot about what happens with the next key levels. How they react to those levels in response to the jobs report will tell us a lot about how much more upside this bounce will have. It is showing traction right now, but then again it is showing traction right ahead of the number. That suggests perhaps some short covering as well. We need to see the reaction and see if the move can continue. If it breaks this area, we are looking up toward the May peak. That is a nice run that will put a lot of jingle in the pockets with the upside plays we have. I cannot complain about that. Have a great evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2303.03
Resistance:
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
The 50 day EMA at 2341
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2434 is the May 2010 high
2453 is the August 2008 peak
Support:
2292 is a low from January 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2233
2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2205 is the November 2009 peak
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1102.83
Resistance:
1101 is the October 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 1106
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
The 50 day EMA at 1136
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
Support:
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,255.28
Resistance:
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,295
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,496 is the November 2009 high
The 50 day EMA at 10,568
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
Support:
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
June 01 - Tuesday
Construction Spending, April (10:00): 2.7% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.2%)
ISM Index, May (10:00): 59.7 actual versus 59.4 expected, 60.4 prior (no revisions)
June 02 - Wednesday
Challenger Job Cuts, May (07:30): -65.1% actual versus -71.1% prior
Pending Home Sales, April (10:00): 6.0% actual versus 4.3% expected, 7.1% prior (revised from 5.3%)
Auto Sales, May (14:00): 4.1M expected, 3.9M prior
Truck Sales, May (14:00): 4.8M expected, 4.9M prior
June 03 - Thursday
ADP Employment Change, May (08:15): 55K actual versus 60K expected, 65K prior (revised from 32K)
Productivity-Rev., Q1 (08:30): 2.8% actual versus 3.3% expected, 3.6% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q1 (08:30): -1.3% actual versus -1.6% expected, -1.6% prior
Initial Claims, 05/29 (08:30): 453K actual versus 455K expected, 463K prior (revised from 460K)
Continuing Claims, 05/22 (08:30): 4666K actual versus 4600K expected, 4635K prior (revised from 4607K)
Factory Orders, April (10:00): 1.2% actual versus 1.7% expected, 1.7% prior (revised from 1.3%)
ISM Services, May (10:00): 55.4 actual versus 55.6 expected, 55.4 prior
Crude Inventories, 05/29 (11:00): -1.90M actual versus 2.46M prior
June 04 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, May (08:30): 500K expected, 290K prior
Unemployment Rate, May (08:30): 9.8% expected, 9.9% prior
Hourly Earnings, May (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Average Workweek, May (08:30): 34.2 expected, 34.1 prior
End part 1 of 3
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