|
|
us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
********** *************
Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside: Given the Friday selloff and the indices' and many stocks' proximity to support, we are focusing on the upside to start the week. If the market bounces and stalls the downside comes back into heavier play.
Play Date: 06/05/2010
FFIV (F5 Networks--$69.01; -2.95; optionable): PC Hardware, networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $68.99
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: Ascending triangle. FFIV rallied nicely from February to late May where the move peaked. FFIV was not immune to the May selling, but the selling did not break its back. Instead FFIV consolidated the move with the current triangle, roughly riding up the 50 day EMA on the higher lows. The pattern is tightening up the past week, pinching off near the apex, as it makes a higher low again. Friday it sold but the action only furthers the pattern. Going to be patient and let FFIV finish off the pattern and show us the breakout. Our initial buy point is a bit aggressive, but that is because of the strong Thursday move and the notion that Friday was simply overdone. We will take some positions as it moves through the buy point and then add to positions on a break through 72.85.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/FFIV.wmv
Volume: 1.807M Avg Volume: 1.447M
BUY POINT: $70.12 Volume=1.6M Target=$78.95 Stop=$67.21
POSITION: FFIV 10J70.00 - Oct. $70c (55 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/05/2010
LULU (Lululemon Athletica--$40.34; -3.36; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lulu.html
After Hours: $40.80
EARNINGS: 06/10/2010
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. As with most stocks LULU rallied from February to April and then sold in May. The difference is how they sold. Leaders used the selling to form another base to rally from. Laggards broke down and are not in any real patterns. LULU is in the former group of course or else it would not be in this section. Indeed, last week LULU was breaking upside before the Friday selling brought most all stocks back. LULU fell to the 18 day EMA on that selling. This is well above the two lows in May, lows that filled the late March gap higher (earnings) and also held the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from where it bounced last week. Thus this test of the move is a gift for the buyers as LULU holds near support. Looking for it to hold at this level this week then reverse and start back upside. That is when we move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/LULU.wmv
Volume: 2.075M Avg Volume: 1.271M
BUY POINT: $41.08 Volume=1.8M Target=$49.88 Stop=$38.89
POSITION: LULU 10I40.00 - Sept. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/06/2010
LXK (Lexmark Intl.--$36.70; -2.19; optionable): New printer with low-cost ink cartridges
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lxk.html
After Hours: $36.70
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: Fibonacci 50% retracement test. LXK's new printer with its low cost cartridges is rejuvenating this stock. Nice gap higher and run from February to late April needed a break. LXK took it with the May selling, but as with the stronger stocks, it did not break down but used the selling to set up a new base. It came back to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, forming a double bottom at that level on the twin May lows. Rallied the past week and a half, sliding laterally last week, forming the handle to a short double bottom w/handle base. It actually broke out Thursday, but then the Friday selling caught it, sending LXK back to the 50 day EMA roughly at the bottom of its handle range. As with other leaders that broke out, this could very well be a gift of an entry point. Looking for LXK to hold this area and then resume upside. When it moves through our buy point that is when we move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/LXK.wmv
Volume: 2.453M Avg Volume: 2.141M
BUY POINT: $37.44 Volume=3M Target=$42.12 Stop=$35.72
POSITION: LXK 10J35.00 - Oct. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/05/2010
ORBK (Orbotech--$11.78; -0.04; optionable): Electronics parts and products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orbk.html
EARNINGS: 08/02/2010
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Familiar story: started the last rally in February, surged through late April, then selling back in May in the flash crash and subsequent test. The selling formed a pair of lows at the 200 day SMA, prompting a nice rally last week. ORBK made it to the 'hump' in the pattern midweek, then slipped back Thursday and Friday to close the week. No heavy selling, however, as seen in the market overall. Indeed ORBK tested lower toward the 10 day EMA and rebounded on a very strong volume surge. It may test a couple more days to finish the handle, but we are going to be patient and let it set up and then show us the breakout. Our initial target is somewhat conservative, but given the market we will be a bit conservative, taking part of the gain when it presents itself, saving some positions for further rallying.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ORBK.wmv
Volume: 192.357K Avg Volume: 90.583K
BUY POINT: $12.02 Volume=125K Target=$13.94 Stop=$11.18
POSITION: Stock - (No option chain)
Play Date: 06/06/2010
UA (Under Armour--$32.69; -1.77; optionable): Sports apparel, equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ua.html
After Hours: $32.41
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: And yet another stock that is setting up this pattern, a double bottom at the 50% Fibonacci retracement, a bounce to the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern, and then a pullback last week to form a handle to the double bottom. UA came back to test last week, twice holding over the 50 day EMA as it did. Thursday it was rallying, Friday it was caught in the selling. As noted, that selling took UA back to the 50 day EMA on the low, but it bounced off of that level on rising, average trade: that shows the buyers stepped in to support it at that level. May take a couple more days to finish, may bounce right back up. The point: a good setup, and when it shows us the move we move in. Our target is the Fibonacci 127% extension.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/UA.wmv
Volume: 902.565K Avg Volume: 914.808K
BUY POINT: $34.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$39.89 Stop=$31.78
POSITION: UA 10J30.00 - Oct. $30c (74 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 05/22/2010
ARO (Aeropostale--$28.78; -1.23; optionable): Teen retailer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aro.html
After Hours: $28.92
EARNINGS: 08/19/2010
STATUS: Getting a great opportunity here with ARO gapping higher Thursday on strong volume, then selling back in the Friday downdraft, but on low volume. That shows no big sellers. ARO may come back to the 50 day EMA and fill the Thursday gap, but whether it does or not we don't care. When it makes the move, that is when we move in. To recap: ARO surged in March off a three month flat consolidation, rallying through late April. It has tested back with the market through Friday, testing the 200 day SMA on the May 6 flash crash, also holding at the 50% Fibonacci retracement on the close. It has tested that level again the past week, forming a double bottom at that point. Friday it had some purpose to it as it jumped nicely on strong volume, the second session of solid, above average volume. Retail remains stronger despite succumbing to the correction itself. Nice action here, however, and looking to move in as ARO continues to the upside.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ARO.wmv
Volume: 2.858M Avg Volume: 2.938M
BUY POINT: $28.88 Volume=3M Target=$33.44 Stop=$26.86
POSITION: ARO 10J28.00 - Oct. $28c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/24/2010
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$25.66; -1.03; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
After Hours: $25.68
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: Thursday we lamented we did not get in on this one, but also recognized we could get another shot. No idea it would come so quickly. NVLS sold off Friday, but held the 10 day EMA on the close. Lower volume to boot. It may turn right back up or it may hold at this level for another day or two. Either way we don't care. When it makes the break we are ready to move in. To recap: NVLS looks promising here with strong upside volume kicking in at an important support level that has held many times over the past decade. Of course it didn't hold in the 2008 bear market, but it has recovered the level and is acting as if it does not want to let it go. After a rally from February through late April, NVLS tested back with the market, but during the May twin dips it has tested back to the 61% Fibonacci retracement level, forming a double bottom at that point. Something of a head and shoulders from late March, but with the longer term support and the double bottom at the Fibonacci retracement level as well as the spotty track record of head and shoulders patterns, we are looking for NVLS to break to the upside. Friday NVLS was surging on volume. It came back well off the high but it also held onto a good chunk of the move. Monday NVLS faded slightly on lower, below average volume. Still solid, and looking for NVLS to continue higher, and as it does we are ready to move in if it can make that move stick.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NVLS.wmv
Volume: 2.833M Avg Volume: 3.236M
BUY POINT: $25.21 Volume=4M Target=$28.95 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: NVLS 10I24.00 - Sept. $24c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/29/2010
NFLX (Netflix--$109.78; -2.07; optionable): Mail order DVD, game rentals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
After Hours: $108.90
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: Down Friday, but barely, tapping the 10 day EMA on the low and bouncing modestly. You have to like how NFLX is ignoring the market action, still trending higher. If it moves up again we are ready to enter. To recap: We are looking at another position on NFLX as this strong stock sets up another buy point. Yes it was up on Friday when most stocks were lower, and while that may discount it for a new buy for some, if you look at the hourly chart you can see NFLX is giving an opportunity to enter on this run. After that strong upside break it is testing, forming a flag pattern, indeed a handle, to a cup with handle base formed from mid-month. We are simply watching for a break over the down trendline in the short flag, a break that holds up toward the close, to give us a new entry point in one of the stronger stocks in the market. A move to the target lands us 53+% on our option play.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NFLX.wmv
Volume: 3.106M Avg Volume: 2.712M
BUY POINT: $111.89 Volume=3.2M Target=$122.00 Stop=$108.39
POSITION: NFLX 10G110.00 - July $110c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/01/2010
OSIS (OSI Systems--$25.78; -0.65; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osis.html
After Hours: $25.78
EARNINGS: 08/23/2010
STATUS: Nice hold Friday, selling yes, but holding at the 10 and 18 day EMA confluence. Always like to see a solid stock go about its own business regardless of market action. Being patient and looking for the break higher. OSIS peaked in January and sold since, but if you look at the weekly chart you see an ABCD upside pattern. The past four weeks OSIS has formed a double bottom w/handle pattern, using the 200 day SMA as support for both bottoms. Nice action here and looking for a break over the 50 day EMA (26.58) that can hold into the close to give us the trigger for the buy and a run back up toward the March peak at 31.50ish.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/OSIS.wmv
Volume: 263.395K Avg Volume: 250.529K
BUY POINT: $26.68 Volume=275K Target=$31.55 Stop=$25.48
POSITION: OSIS 10J25.00 - Oct. $25c (58 delta, wide sprd) &/or Stock
Downside:
Play Date: 05/29/2010
TEX (Terex--$20.95; -1.65; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tex.html
After Hours: $21.30
EARNINGS: 04/21/2010
STATUS: Okay so TEX did not make it all the way to the January peak before peaking out on this run. It tapped higher Thursday then gapped lower Friday, selling to undercut the 200 day SMA. With this lower high and gap downside we are ready to go ahead and move in as it continues to sell. To recap: Still anticipating TEX to bounce to the January peak (23.89) before it stalls. Friday it was down but it tapped at the 200 day SMA on the low and rebounded. Looking for TEX to continue higher from here and hit that 200 day. When it does we look for a rollover to jump in for a turn back to the downside.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TEX.wmv
Volume: 3.123M Avg Volume: 2.586M
BUY POINT: $20.81 Volume=2.7M Target=$17.44 Stop=$22.58
POSITION: TEX 10V21.00 - Oct. $21p (-42 delta)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock watch
|
