|
|
us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
********** *************
Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 06/07/2010
CI (Cigna--$33.91; -0.16; optionable): Health Care Plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ci.html
After Hours: $33.91
EARNINGS: 08/05/2010
STATUS: CI has been rolling around in a range all 2010 from roughly 31 to 40ish. As the market has turned bearish the healthcare stocks are picking up buyers as a defensive move. After selling in April CI bottomed with the May flash crash, testing again on the next selling, but holding over that prior low. Nice rally off that level, then a test to start last week. When the market was selling CI was trying to run higher. Though it did not succeed completely, it did hold its position above near support at the 50 day EMA and the short term moving averages. Looking for CI to move through the buy point and make it stick into the close. That is our cue to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CI.wmv
Volume: 3.499M Avg Volume: 4.186M
BUY POINT: $34.31 Volume=5M Target=$39.91 Stop=$32.78
POSITION: CI 10J34.00 - Oct. $34c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/07/2010
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$47.99; -1.23; optionable): Steel production raw materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
After Hours: $48.10
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: CLF gave us a huge run in 2009 and another through April. It sold off in the May selling; a metals related stock it couldn't withstand the tossing out of all metals. It has come back to the 200 day SMA the past three weeks . . . twice. The second is occurring right now with a close at that level on Monday. If CLF can hold here that puts it in great position to run higher. Nice thing is, we can log a great gain with a simple rebound of half the recent losses. That is our initial target, just below resistance from early March and the early May interim peak. We take some gain at that point and if the stock and market are working well (unlike now), and let the rest run higher if they will.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CLF.wmv
Volume: 6.846M Avg Volume: 8.131M
BUY POINT: $49.32 Volume=10M Target=$59.92 Stop=$46.31
POSITION: CLF 10J49.00 - Oct. $49c (53 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/07/2010
WX (Wuxi Pharmatech--$17.75; 0.00; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wx.html
After Hours: $17.25
EARNINGS: 08/09/2010
STATUS: ABCD up. Blast off in late April, gapping over resistance at 17.75ish. Love those breakaway gaps. This one did not continue surging higher, however, instead opting to fill the gap, making the final tap two weeks back on the intraday low following by a jump back upside to close the session. A nice rebound from that D point, then the past two days as the market sold WX tested, but just a minor pullback on very low volume. Very low well below average volume, holding the January closing high peak and the 18 day EMA as it tests. Looking for a bounce off of this level that can hold the move to give us the trigger to buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/WX.wmv
Volume: 288.615K Avg Volume: 867.136K
BUY POINT: $18.12 Volume=1.2M Target=$20.11 Stop=$17.22
POSITION: WX 10I17.50 - Sept. $17.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 06/05/2010
FFIV (F5 Networks--$67.05; -1.96; optionable): PC Hardware, networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $67.00
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Not the best action Monday as FFIV fell to the 50 day EMA on the close, but volume was lower as it made the test, continuing the action in the triangle. Just being patient to see if FFIVE can show us the upside break and make it stick. To recap: FFIV rallied nicely from February to late May where the move peaked. FFIV was not immune to the May selling, but the selling did not break its back. Instead FFIV consolidated the move with the current triangle, roughly riding up the 50 day EMA on the higher lows. The pattern is tightening up the past week, pinching off near the apex, as it makes a higher low again. Friday it sold but the action only furthers the pattern. Going to be patient and let FFIV finish off the pattern and show us the breakout. Our initial buy point is a bit aggressive, but that is because of the strong Thursday move and the notion that Friday was simply overdone. We will take some positions as it moves through the buy point and then add to positions on a break through 72.85.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/FFIV.wmv
Volume: 1.553M Avg Volume: 1.447M
BUY POINT: $70.12 Volume=1.6M Target=$78.95 Stop=$67.21
POSITION: FFIV 10J70.00 - Oct. $70c (55 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/29/2010
NFLX (Netflix--$109.16; -0.62; optionable): Mail order DVD, game rentals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
After Hours: $110.47
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: Outstanding relative strength as NFLX continues to test, but holding the 10 day EMA on the lows each session; not much pressure on it. Still looking for NFLX to lead the net move. To recap: We are looking at another position on NFLX as this strong stock sets up another buy point. Yes it was up on Friday when most stocks were lower, and while that may discount it for a new buy for some, if you look at the hourly chart you can see NFLX is giving an opportunity to enter on this run. After that strong upside break it is testing, forming a flag pattern, indeed a handle, to a cup with handle base formed from mid-month. We are simply watching for a break over the down trendline in the short flag, a break that holds up toward the close, to give us a new entry point in one of the stronger stocks in the market. A move to the target lands us 53+% on our option play.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NFLX.wmv
Volume: 3.744M Avg Volume: 2.712M
BUY POINT: $111.89 Volume=3.2M Target=$122.00 Stop=$108.39
POSITION: NFLX 10G110.00 - July $110c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/05/2010
ORBK (Orbotech--$11.51; -0.27; optionable): Electronics parts and products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orbk.html
EARNINGS: 08/02/2010
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Faded Monday after a gap higher to the down trendline, losing a bit of ground but on lower, average volume. May take some more time but if it makes the break higher ORBK looks good for the buy. To recap: Familiar story: started the last rally in February, surged through late April, then selling back in May in the flash crash and subsequent test. The selling formed a pair of lows at the 200 day SMA, prompting a nice rally last week. ORBK made it to the 'hump' in the pattern midweek, then slipped back Thursday and Friday to close the week. No heavy selling, however, as seen in the market overall. Indeed ORBK tested lower toward the 10 day EMA and rebounded on a very strong volume surge. It may test a couple more days to finish the handle, but we are going to be patient and let it set up and then show us the breakout. Our initial target is somewhat conservative, but given the market we will be a bit conservative, taking part of the gain when it presents itself, saving some positions for further rallying.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ORBK.wmv
Volume: 85.446K Avg Volume: 90.583K
BUY POINT: $12.02 Volume=125K Target=$13.94 Stop=$11.18
POSITION: Stock - (No option chain)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock watch
|
