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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 06/08/2010
CI (Cigna--$33.63; -0.28; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ci.html
After Hours: $33.63
EARNINGS: 08/05/2010
STATUS: CI has been rolling around in a range all 2010 from roughly 31 to 40ish. As the market has turned bearish the healthcare stocks are picking up buyers as a defensive move. After selling in April CI bottomed with the May flash crash, testing again on the next selling, but holding over that prior low. Nice rally off that level, then a test to start last week. When the market was selling CI was trying to run higher. Though it did not succeed completely, it did hold its position above near support at the 50 day EMA and the short term moving averages. Looking for CI to move through the buy point and make it stick into the close. That is our cue to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CI.wmv
Volume: 4.742M Avg Volume: 4.186M
BUY POINT: $34.31 Volume=5M Target=$39.91 Stop=$32.78
POSITION: CI 10J34.00 - Oct. $34c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/08/2010
HNT (Healthnet--$25.42; +0.22; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hnt.html
After Hours: $25.33
EARNINGS: 08/04/2010
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Yes another HC stock and while we don't want to overload on any particular sector, these are getting money in a more defensive minded market. We will simply see which one takes off first. HNT is in a three day handle to a 10 week base formed around the 50 day EMA. Very solid volume the past week as HNT rallied up to finish the cup part of the base. Easing back this week on lighter trade, just what you want in the handle shakeout. Now we wait for the test to finish and then have HNT show us a good break higher through the buy point as our entry.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/HNT.wmv
Volume: 1.883M Avg Volume: 1.479M
BUY POINT: $25.71 Volume=2.1M Target=$29.75 Stop=$23.91
POSITION: HNT 10J25.00 - Oct. $25c (52 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/08/2010
LULU (Lululemon Athletica--$39.05; +0.73; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lulu.html
After Hours: $39.05
EARNINGS: 06/10/2010
STATUS: Double bottom. LULU has pulled back farther than we wanted, but it is still in its pattern after reaching down into the March gap point intraday and then rebounding for a gain. Nice reversal, and off of this test and rebound we are looking to move in. To recap: As with most stocks LULU rallied from February to April and then sold in May. The difference is how they sold. Leaders used the selling to form another base to rally from. Laggards broke down and are not in any real patterns. LULU is in the former group of course or else it would not be in this section. Indeed, last week LULU was breaking upside before the Friday selling brought most all stocks back. LULU fell to the 18 day EMA on that selling. This is well above the two lows in May, lows that filled the late March gap higher (earnings). Still feel this test is something of a gift for the buyers. As LULU continues this reversal we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/LULU.wmv
Volume: 1.348M Avg Volume: 1.297M
BUY POINT: $39.93 Volume=1.8M Target=$49.88 Stop=$37.13
POSITION: LULU 10I40.00 - Sept. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 05/22/2010
ARO (Aeropostale--$27.94; +0.22; optionable): Teen retailer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aro.html
After Hours: $27.92
EARNINGS: 08/19/2010
STATUS: Testing back again but holding the trendline it broke last week. Still a great point to rally from. To recap: ARO surged in March off a three month flat consolidation, rallying through late April. It has tested back with the market through Friday, testing the 200 day SMA on the May 6 flash crash, also holding at the 50% Fibonacci retracement on the close. It has tested that level again the past week, forming a double bottom at that point. Friday it had some purpose to it as it jumped nicely on strong volume, the second session of solid, above average volume. Retail remains stronger despite succumbing to the correction itself. Nice action here, however, and looking to move in as ARO continues to the upside.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ARO.wmv
Volume: 4.945M Avg Volume: 2.852M
BUY POINT: $28.52 Volume=3M Target=$33.44 Stop=$26.52
POSITION: ARO 10J28.00 - Oct. $28c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/07/2010
DECK (Deckers Outdoor--$144.80; +1.80; optionable): Footwear and accessories
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/deck.html
After Hours: $140.86
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: Pre-Split Flag. Shows down after hours but that was just a late trade. DECK remains in great position to rally. Just looking for the break higher off a very nice doji with tail Tuesday. To recap: DECK is one of the market leaders, and while it has come under pressure as have many retail leader stocks it is still showing momentum that can make us money. Surged to a high in late April with a gap. Filled it and indeed went lower, forming a double bottom pattern to consolidate the prior rally. Great surge two weeks back took DECK back up to that prior April peak. Friday and Monday DECK was pulling back, but on lower volume. Monday DECK hit and held the 10 day EMA on the close. That has set up the flag off of that last surge from the low. With a stock split coming DECK has the potential for more momentum, and if it can come off of this test of near support with some vigor, it is worth some positions. Very strong upside trade from DECK, showing the buyers are still there.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DECK.wmv
Volume: 534.805K Avg Volume: 447.245K
BUY POINT: $144.77 Volume=615K Target=$174.93 Stop=$141.21
POSITION: DECK 10I145.00 - Sept. $145c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/05/2010
FFIV (F5 Networks--$66.83; -0.22; optionable): PC Hardware, networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $66.83
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Continued the test, tapping the up trendline again and rebounding intraday to close at the 50 day EMA. Not bad. Moved the buy point to accommodate this test. To recap: FFIV rallied nicely from February to late May where the move peaked. FFIV was not immune to the May selling, but the selling did not break its back. Instead FFIV consolidated the move with the current triangle, roughly riding up the 50 day EMA on the higher lows. The pattern is tightening up the past week, pinching off near the apex, as it makes a higher low again. Friday it sold but the action only furthers the pattern. Going to be patient and let FFIV finish off the pattern and show us the breakout. Our initial buy point is a bit aggressive, but that is because of the strong Thursday move and the notion that Friday was simply overdone. We will take some positions as it moves through the buy point and then add to positions on a break through 72.85.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/FFIV.wmv
Volume: 1.851M Avg Volume: 1.457M
BUY POINT: $68.82 Volume=1.6M Target=$78.95 Stop=$64.88
POSITION: FFIV 10J70.00 - Oct. $70c (55 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 05/29/2010
NFLX (Netflix--$110.33; +1.17; optionable): Mail order DVD, game rentals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nflx.html
After Hours: $110.24
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: Another doji with a modest gain as NFLX continues to impress. Set up to make the next move and all we have to see is NFLX showing us the break higher we want. To recap: We are looking at another position on NFLX as this strong stock sets up another buy point. Yes it was up on Friday when most stocks were lower, and while that may discount it for a new buy for some, if you look at the hourly chart you can see NFLX is giving an opportunity to enter on this run. After that strong upside break it is testing, forming a flag pattern, indeed a handle, to a cup with handle base formed from mid-month. We are simply watching for a break over the down trendline in the short flag, a break that holds up toward the close, to give us a new entry point in one of the stronger stocks in the market. A move to the target lands us 53+% on our option play.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NFLX.wmv
Volume: 3.414M Avg Volume: 2.777M
BUY POINT: $111.89 Volume=3.2M Target=$122.00 Stop=$108.39
POSITION: NFLX 10G110.00 - July $110c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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