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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 06/10/2010
CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$23.44; -0.55; optionable): Natural gas exploration and production
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html
After Hours: $23.50
EARNINGS: 05/04/2010
STATUS: Trend reversal. A week back natural gas got a shot in the arm when the Administration, post-BP spill, talked of natural gas, coal methane gas, etc. It was enough to send CHK up through its 5 month down trendline. Solid surge to the 200 day SMA, and then it stalled to test. Came back Tuesday on the low and tapped the 50 day EMA. Wednesday it was back again, holding the 50 day EMA on the close. A jump in volume both sessions indicates the buyers are at that level, ready to move in. Looking for a solid jump off that level that can stock to give us the buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CHK.wmv
Volume: 22.053M Avg Volume: 17.992M
BUY POINT: $24.04 Volume=23M Target=$28.54 Stop=$22.74
POSITION: CHK J1023.00 - Oct. $23c (60 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/10/2010
DTG (Dollar Thrifty Auto Group--$43.99; -0.05; optionable): Auto rentals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dtg.html
After Hours: $43.99
EARNINGS: 08/04/2010
STATUS: Pennant. DTG made us some excellent coin this year. Over the past 5 weeks it has formed series of lower highs but has constant lows at the late April gap up point, now coincident with the rising 50 day EMA. Very solid pattern and a very nice test is setting up the next move. If that move is a break upside on some volume, moving through the 18 day EMA, we are ready to enter for a continued rally after this very nice consolidation.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DTG.wmv
Volume: 868.243K Avg Volume: 1.307M
BUY POINT: $45.57 Volume=1.7M Target=$52.24 Stop=$42.54
POSITION: DTG 10J45.00 - Oct. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/10/2010
TIE (Titanium Metals--$18.05; +0.79; optionable): Titanium
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tie.html
After Hours: $18.05
EARNINGS: 08/02/2010
STATUS: Range breakout. TIE bounced up and down in a range from 14 to 17.35 from March through Tuesday. Wednesday it gapped higher, surging on very strong, above average trade, the highest trade in over a month. This followed an attempted breakout last week, and the pullback has formed something of a handle. TIE closed well off the high on the session, but it held the gap higher out of the pattern. Looking for this move to hold and TIE to resume the upside. When it does we are ready to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TIE.wmv
Volume: 7.622M Avg Volume: 4.305M
BUY POINT: $18.21 Volume=4.5M Target=$21.94 Stop=$16.94
POSITION: TIE 10I17.50 - Sept. $17.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/10/2010
USO (United States Oil Fund ETF--$33.95; +0.76; optionable)
After Hours: $34.01
STATUS: Rolling. Oil has been slaughtered, but it is also still within its seven month range. It has just made a higher low and on Wednesday oil gapped higher, managing to hold the gain into the close. We like the gap and if USO (oil) can continue higher we are interested in starting some positions. Then we see how it handles the February low (35.09). Expecting oil to continue its move up higher in its range. After all it is the driving season now.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/USO.wmv
Volume: 16.198M Avg Volume: 13.277M
BUY POINT: $34.08 Volume=16M Target=$37.31 Stop=$32.48
POSITION: USO 10J33.003 - Oct. $33c (62 delta)
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 06/08/2010
CI (Cigna--$33.29; -0.34; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ci.html
After Hours: $33.29
EARNINGS: 08/05/2010
STATUS: The stock gave a small effort to the upside Wednesday, but quickly slid back to finish the day moderately lower. Not a bad thing, though. The stock is setting up over the 200 day SMA, and is poised to launch higher out of the handle off this support. Now it is time to wait and see if it can make that move for us. To recap: CI has been rolling around in a range all 2010 from roughly 31 to 40ish. As the market has turned bearish the healthcare stocks are picking up buyers as a defensive move. After selling in April CI bottomed with the May flash crash, testing again on the next selling, but holding over that prior low. Nice rally off that level, then a test to start last week. When the market was selling CI was trying to run higher. Though it did not succeed completely, it did hold its position above near support at the 50 day EMA and the short term moving averages. Looking for CI to move through the buy point and make it stick into the close. That is our cue to move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CI.wmv
Volume: 2.945M Avg Volume: 4.195M
BUY POINT: $34.31 Volume=5M Target=$39.91 Stop=$32.78
Play Date: 06/05/2010
FFIV (F5 Networks--$66.81; -0.02; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $66.81
EARNINGS: 07/21/2010
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Showed action Wednesday very similar to what we saw Tuesday: testing the up trendline on the low and then bouncing back towards the 50 day EMA. Showing a tight doji at this level and is positioned to pivot higher. Looks good and now just being patient. To recap: FFIV rallied nicely from February to late May where the move peaked. FFIV was not immune to the May selling, but the selling did not break its back. Instead FFIV consolidated the move with the current triangle, roughly riding up the 50 day EMA on the higher lows. The pattern is tightening up the past week, pinching off near the apex, as it makes a higher low again. Friday it sold but the action only furthers the pattern. Going to be patient and let FFIV finish off the pattern and show us the breakout. Our initial buy point is a bit aggressive, but that is because of the strong Thursday move and the notion that Friday was simply overdone. We will take some positions as it moves through the buy point and then add to positions on a break through 72.85.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/FFIV.wmv
Volume: 2.703M Avg Volume: 1.463M
BUY POINT: $68.82 Volume=1.6M Target=$78.95 Stop=$64.88
POSITION: FFIV 10J70.00 - Oct. $70c (55 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/05/2010
ORBK (Orbotech--$11.41; +0.23; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orbk.html
EARNINGS: 08/02/2010
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Faded Monday after a gap higher to the down trendline, losing a bit of ground but on lower, average volume. Kept fading Tuesday to key 50 day EMA support and then bounced off the lows to hold the line. Followed that nice hold at support with the gap higher Wednesday, bouncing up from the intraday low to close for a doji. Starting to turn things back higher off support, and now if it can keep going, we can look at moving in. To recap: Familiar story: started the last rally in February, surged through late April, then selling back in May in the flash crash and subsequent test. The selling formed a pair of lows at the 200 day SMA, prompting a nice rally last week. ORBK made it to the 'hump' in the pattern midweek, then slipped back Thursday and Friday to close the week. No heavy selling, however, as seen in the market overall. Indeed ORBK tested lower toward the 10 day EMA and rebounded on a very strong volume surge. It may test a couple more days to finish the handle, but we are going to be patient and let it set up and then show us the breakout. Our initial target is somewhat conservative, but given the market we will be a bit conservative, taking part of the gain when it presents itself, saving some positions for further rallying.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/ORBK.wmv
Volume: 91.413K Avg Volume: 92.114K
BUY POINT: $12.02 Volume=125K Target=$13.94 Stop=$11.18
POSITION: Stock - (No option chain)
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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