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world stock market, us stock market
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6/10/10 Investment House Alerts
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MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: CHK; HNT; TIE; USO
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Technical Summary, Economy, and the Next Session. This allows you to choose the segments you are interested in without having to find the segment in a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
MARKET OVERVIEW
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SUMMARY:
- Viagra arrives, market manages to close the deal on an upside rally.
- Some soothsayers manage to bounce stocks similar to China's comments about the EU a week ago.
- Buyers and sellers still fighting it out at key support, but the buyers are not giving up.
- Nice price gains but where is the beef (i.e., the volume)? Too early for a follow-through and volume too low as well.
- Could the January peak actually be in play this time?
- Not enough leadership to lead to a new rally high so we play for a bounce until proven otherwise.
This time the market had the stamina, just not the volume or the leadership.
The market must have finally received its shipment of Viagra. After spectacularly failing to hold a strong move to the upside on Wednesday a move that followed a Tuesday intraday reversal to the upside the market found footing. It did not fall off of the Wednesday intraday reversal, instead gapping higher and surging to the upside. Looking at an intraday chart of SP500, there was a gap higher on the open that mostly negated the hard selling to the closing bell on Wednesday. The market moved higher early, consolidated through lunch, and then picked up the pace and rallied into the close. Impressive gains with percentages approaching 3% on all of the major indices. 2.77% on NASDAQ, 2.95% on SP500, and 3.24% on SP600. This was a very strong price move.
Was it a follow-through? I had talked about a follow-through on Tuesday. That is strong initial rally followed by another strong session later in the move. Typically you look for the initial move to hold positive, as it did on SP500, and then start looking four days later (though it can be later than that) for another strong surge. There were a couple of problems. Number one, it occurred on the third day and volume was lower. There was a premature rally of sorts and volume was low. You need to see rising volume. In terms of price, the move was strong enough, but the move in terms of volume was not and the rally was early. We could still have another rally on Friday. If we get good volume, then there is more foundation in the follow-through, and that sets the stage for a good rally. If we do not get it, we look to next week and see if it happens then. You want to see those key factors: rally with 2% or better, strong volume within the move (rising at least), and it has to be the right time. There is that initial short covering run, and you want to see long term buyers come in and move the market to the upside. You want that versus just a series of short covering rallies on lower volume and narrow breadth that do not take the market where it needs to be. Of course there has to be leadership. Follow-throughs with no leadership usually fail. As you probably guessed, there was a lot of rebounding, but one day does not rebuild patterns in most cases. Leadership has been rather thin.
It was another day of the insane volatility that we have seen in the market. There is insane volatility when experiencing changes. Over the past several months we have had volatility and then had a solid rally February into April. Now the volatility has returned all through May and into June. Back and forth sessions, intraday reversals, surges higher and plunges to the downside. We are still in that, and the bulls and bears are still fighting it out. That is a good sign because they are doing so at a key support level on SP500, NASDAQ, SOX, and SP600. They are all having the fight where they should be. Thus far they have been holding that support, and the gain on Thursday was a key step in that battle. It could lead to a follow-through with further gains if they are shown starting Friday or next week if there is volume accompanying them. It certainly was an impressive move. If it does hold, dare I say that the SP500 could move to the January high? We have been looking at that ever since the selling in May started and the market tried to rebound. We did not get quite a good enough move on the last run in late May to early June. Now there is another strong surge on lighter volume; maybe this time there will be a January peak in the cards.
As for the news, Europe is always the focus these days given the battle between the dollar and the Euro and the perennial debt crisis going on that has only peaked now. The BNP Paribas CEO said he did not see any defaults happening from any European countries. That was a real relief. I am so happy that one of the major banks in Europe said there would not be any defaults. If one of the major banks was worried, there would be hell to pay. What would he say? "Oh my god, we should hide under our desks"? Of course not. We should give his comment no weight, but the market seemed to enjoy it. Any soothsaying at this point seems to help out. Spain held a bond auction, and people did actually show up (unlike some that Greece had awhile back.) The buyers bought the bonds. That is great, but that had to pay 150BP more for these bonds than they did in April. In other words, Spain had to pay out more money the interest in order to get people to buy the paper. That is what happens when the confidence wanes. No big mystery there.
China was also in the news as its GDP was revised higher than expected. It did in fact confirm that its exports grew more than anticipated. There are a couple of positive news stories about the Chinese economy coming out, and it always bolstered metals and other commodities when China says it is hungry. US jobless claims were crappy again. I do not necessarily like using that term, but it describes the report very well. Jobless claims were at 456K, but that was more than the 450K expected. The prior week was revised higher to 459K from 453K. That averages between 450-460K new jobless claims a week. Some are saying it is not reflecting the real story in the economy. There is probably a bifurcation in the economy now. We have people giving up now; they cannot find jobs so they are trying to start companies on their own. There is no real incentive to do that, but they have to try something to pay the bills. On the other hand, the companies that traditionally create jobs are continuing to shed employees. Thus the new claims. Some of these are rollovers maybe they got a temp job and lost it. That is part of the issue, but the point is that it is not getting better, and that is not good for the health of the economy. It is interesting that the trade balance grew although less than expected even though oil prices were down. That means we sold less of everything else, and the culprit is the dollar growing in strength.
OTHER MARKETS.
Dollar. The dollar took a licking on Thursday. It had a minor pullback through Wednesday and even held the 10 day EMA and bounced on Wednesday. Given the decent news oversees, however, it was time to take some off the table with the dollar. It did not hurt that the dollar was bumping up against the late 2008/early 2009 highs. A little profit taking here is nothing unusual. (1.2124 Euros versus 1.1989 Wednesday).
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Bonds. Bonds sold pretty hard given the Spanish bonds auction that saw buyers come in and buy the bonds they wanted to sell. Even though they had to pay a lot for them, it calmed a lot of fear that the economies would continue to tumble. The US bonds fell dramatically (US 10 year yield 3.32% versus 3.17% Wednesday). I do not think that will solve the problem, and I do not think the fear trade is over. As we have seen over the past few months, day to day there is subsidence of fear and then a resumption of the worry about whether Europe will make it. Thursday there were reassuring words from people in high places in Europe, and that helped support Europe's stocks and bonds. That will not last because Europe is a house of cards at this point. It is trying to do what it can, be there are very negative signs in all the markets not just stock markets that point to real trouble still ahead in Europe. It looks to be spreading when you think of countries such as Hungary.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg
Gold. Even though the fear was subsiding (thus you would think there would be concern about inflation) gold was down on the day. It was not a bomb however. It tapped the late 2008/early 2009 high on the low, and it did bounce ($1,215.80, -11.40). It depends on where you look. It was wildly volatile at the end of the session. It shows it at almost $1,224 on our chart. Suffice it to say gold is testing back after again hitting a high. I do not think it is a double top as some pundits suggest. If it is, it is a short term double top at best. The same problems are still underpinning all of the world economies. Just a day or two of soothsaying does not change thing. A week ago, China talked nicely about the Euro and EU bonds. Then our bonds sold, gold sold off, and everyone thought happy days were here. Then immediately gold turned back around and rallied up, and bonds in the US rallied back up because the problem is not solved by some people saying "we have confidence." We got a bit of the same action with the PNB Paribas CEO on Thursday saying things would be fine and there would not be any defaults. The fear trade subsided somewhat, but it is just jawboning. Day-to-day fluctuations based on comments from people in high places do not mean a lot in the long run.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Oil. Oil continues its technical move higher, rising nicely off the higher low as it bounces off of the bottom range of its seven-month trading range ($75.63, +1.25). A very solid move, and we anticipate more upside. It will run up against some resistance starting at the 200 day EMA and some other price points, but it still has room to run up into the range near $79.50. It is indeed in a trading range over the past seven months. Here we have a sharp selloff in early May to the end of May. No big deal; everything sold off during that period. There is the bounce and then a test back, and now it is making a higher high. That looks positive, and it can be very positive. But this is also a potential ABCD downside pattern. This is basically the opposite of an ABCD upside pattern because that one looks like the stock is weakening on the upside pattern and it actually turns and rallies to the upside. Here it looks like the stock is strengthening and then it can fail and turn back down. We have to watch out with our oil plays, but for now it looks like there is more toward the top of the range. It could fail there and still be in the pattern, fulfill it, and send it lower. For now, it is making a technical move off the bottom of its trading range.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
TECHNICAL PICTURE
INTERNALS
Volume. Trade fell 5% on NASDAQ to 2.1B shares. It fell 21% on the NYSE to 1.3B shares. Disappointing volume on an upside, and that precludes this from being a follow-through session. It was too early to be a follow-through, but the volume would still have prevented it. You want to see strong volume on a move higher because that shows the buyers are coming in. Weak volume is not something that shows the buyers are taking over, particularly when you are in a fight for your life to hold support. When stocks are getting knocked around in the wild day-to-day and intraday volatility, you do not want to see moves made on light volume. That shows that it is not getting the backing of all the players in the market. The sellers could jump on this as soon as it reaches up to the prior high. It could happen at any point until we see better volume. In this situation, when you are looking for a follow-through or major move off another hold of support, light volume is not your friend.
Breadth. Breadth was stellar. 5.3:1 advancers over decliners on NASDAQ, and 5.5:1 advancers over decliners on the NYSE. Plenty of power to the upside, and that is the same pattern we have seen. Strong moves to the upside with strong breadth. Strong moves to the downside with strong breadth. It is a fight. They go back and fourth day to day, and whoever is in charge of the day is TOTALLY in charge of the day. Breadth is very dominant to the side of the move, and that is another indication that the buyers and the sellers have not resolved their issues. That is obvious looking at the pattern, but it shows you that these internals are not a bunch of BS. They actually tell you something about the move. If you see things that do not match the price moves in the markets, then that is something to be noted. With the breadth, we are seeing moves that match what the market is showing, so it is not a divergence. There is nothing to raise red flags. The volume is the interesting part because it failed to rise on this move. That is something of a divergence because you are not getting the strength to the upside that you had on this selling that occurred early this week.
CHARTS
SP500. SP500 has indeed made another attempt to bounce up off the February low and this long term key support. It moved through the 10 day EMA and is moving up toward the interim peaks hit two weeks back. Those roughly coincide with a series of peaks and lows that we have seen hold the index in check before. The real point of contention is the January peak whether it is the bottom side of that range at 1135 or the topside at about 1150. That is where we are looking, and maybe we will finally get the bounce. The volume is a bit disconcerting, however.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ moved higher as well, but it also moved on lower volume. The volume on Wednesday selloff was lower, but this volume to the upside was even lower Wednesday. Still well below average as a lot of this move has been over the past two weeks. It made it up to the 10 day EMA, and that could be a near term resistance point. If it fails there, that is a weak move. It is battling it out, trying to find footing to get back up to the January peak. It almost got there last week and failed, but we will see what kind of motor it has on it. It is still fighting it out, still basing and has a lot of work to do. A lot of these are not in good position to buy.
SP600. SP600 is showing the same kind of action, although it undercut its January peak it held at the very bottom of the range. It showed that hammer doji on Tuesday and then reversed and managed to hold the gain Thursday through the 200 day EMA. That was something it could not accomplish on Wednesday. It is also at the 10 day EMA and right at the top of the January peak. It is bumping up into that range as well as these lows from May. It has a little headwind here. Through this resistance is the March consolidation, and that will be a key move. That is where you have to look for the SP600. As with the other indices, it is holding this level where it needs to be holding and is trying to post up with another bounce.
SOX. Semiconductors managed to hold a move through their 200 day EMA after holding this key long term support for the third time at roughly 335. Nice reversal Tuesday, almost gave it away on Wednesday, but then Thursday it was back to the upside. I can live with that. It is looking positive and trying to get back up in the range. Its key move as with NASDAQ and SP500 is going to be the January peak. Notice it failed there in May twice. Once at the top of the range and once at the bottom of the range. That is where we will be looking at the makes the bounce higher.
LEADERSHIP
One of the important aspects of a follow-through in a rally attempt is whether there are leaders in good position to rally and lead the market higher. This market has done a good job of taking down several leadership sectors pretty much trashing them, breaking them lower, and ruining their patterns. That is what we see on a lot of stocks in this market. They have been knocked down and do not look in position to post leadership. In other words, they do not have good bases or good ranges that they are in to make strong moves up and lead the market to new highs. You are looking for moves to new highs if you want a sustained rally. If you are looking for a bounce, that is not necessarily the case. You can look for stocks that have been beaten up and have held support like the indices have done. They sold off, were kicked hard in May, and are now at support and are getting beaten up day in and day out. Those can provide bounces if they hold that support, and that looks to be what the market is trying to do right now: to make a move up to the January highs.
Metals. MTL had a nice rally but then got the snot kicked out of it in April and May. Then it bounced and was hit harder again in mid- to late May. Now it is trying to come back. It has a support level it is trying to set up and hold, maybe an inverse head and shoulders. A trident that you can see spanning May to early June. This is the kind of play that may make the break to the upside and rally back upside in its range. It is not necessarily in position to lead the market right now, but it could turn out that way. It could definitely be, near term, in a position to bounce and bolster the averages. Even a stock that has been kicked around pretty hard can provide a bounce in a rally even though it is one that is not going to take us to new rally highs overall. I can live with that; I just want to make money in the market and typically do not really care. I like to see everyone even the buy-and-hold people make money, but I do not care if they trade up and trade down as long as we get on the right side of it and make money.
TIE is a company that is in good position to lead a rally higher. It broke out of its trading range, tested, and then gapped again on Thursday. We picked up positions on this gap as it tested back. That is a leadership stock that could help lead the market to new rally highs if there were enough of them, but there are not enough of them right now. A lot of them are beat up like MTL and in even worse shape than that. They will need type to set up good patterns in other words, show a base where there is accumulation that gets rid of all of the overhead supply that worked to beat the stock down.
Energy. What do I mean by overhead supply? I am talking about the levels that a stock rallied to prior and then formed a top. CHK had descending highs. Each one of them represents a resistance level where there are buyers who bought in at this point and then the stock sold off. The next time it gets up to that point, there is often the urge to get out "even." They have lost a lot of time in doing so, so they are not really even considering the time value of money. Nonetheless, these prior highs are an issue. CHK is interesting because it made the initial move to break over some of this resistance, and it is testing and now moving back up. It is a good point to pick up some of these as it makes the break to the upside; indeed, as it continues higher, I will be looking to pick up more positions on this stock as it moves. Each one of these levels could offer a resistance point. That is the overhead supply where there will be an urge by those who bought to sell when the stock gets back up there. That is why when the stock got to this level it started to move letter a bit even after this strong break. We like the strong break and the test. That is the tipoff that we want to possibly move in on this. It has to overcome those levels, and there are worse pictures than this out there.
In CVX, you can see there is a high in January, a sell off, and then a new high in late April. We will have serious resistance when it tries to get to this point on the rebound. You will have people who want to sell out here, when it bounced back up after it got to this peak and rebounded. People thought it may not go back up and wanted to get out. When it started to stall, sellers were hitting it. It tried to rally, but the sellers hit it. That shadow on the candlestick to the upside shows you that is what is happening, and it is coincident to the January peak. It sold it off and now it has to work its way back up. That is why I say it is hard to dig yourself out of a hole. That is what stocks have to do after they have had vicious selloffs.
Retail. There are retailers still leading, and PNRA one of our favorites. It is still doing well and moving higher. It set up a nice pattern. It got a little iffy, but it has come back nicely. Not a lot of volume, so I would like to see more trade. ROST is moving nicely and sporting nice trade as it makes the move higher. It is in good shape. Nice rally, normal test, moving back up on strong volume. There is one that gapped away from us today that we did not get in on Wednesday when we should have. DECK was moving on big volume on Thursday, gapping sharply higher and then rallying all session long. It has a little overhead to deal with, but it has a lot of momentum. Buyers are obviously stepping right back in to drive it higher. ANN is a stock we always watch. It made us a lot of money on its run up through April. It has a little overhead and has come back down, but it is an interesting pattern. It could provide an interesting play up to these peaks something I will consider maybe on Friday or the weekend. We will see how it develops. Nonetheless, there is leadership and we will look at some of those. If the market is ready to rally, we will take advantage of that and ride some positions higher. We were buying into some on Thursday. It was one of those days. It looked like the market was going to creator. Many of these stocks we sold out of on Tuesday started trying to reverse. Wednesday they did not get much better, and a lot of them sold off more, but they are trying to rebound on Thursday. You never know if the bottom, when it starts to break, is going to hold. Now we are going to try to ride some of these back up and see what the rally yields. Again, we have to watch the leadership. It is not very widespread right now, and that tends to lead to failures in rally attempts. Whatever may be the ultimate case, we will try to make short term gains. If it turns into something longer term, I will be happy about that.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 30.57; -3.16
VXN: 31.3; -3.52
VXO: 29.68; -3.64
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; -0.06
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 39.8% versus 39.3. Holding rather flat after some substantial drops from 43.8%, 47.2%, and 56.0% before that. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 28.4% versus 29.2%. Surprising drop, but given the market's attempt to move higher, understandable. Still a big move up from 24.7% the week before where it held for a couple of weeks. Fell to 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +59.86 points (+2.77%) to close at 2218.71
Volume: 2.091B (-5.37%)
Up Volume: 1.915B (+1.014B)
Down Volume: 230.569M (-1.113B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 5.28 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.1 to 1
New Highs: 20 (+6)
New Lows: 77 (-52)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +31.15 points (+2.95%) to close at 1086.84
NYSE Volume: 1.336B (-21.38%)
Up Volume: 1.304B (+471.609M)
Down Volume: 29.552M (-818.066M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 5.54 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.09 to 1
New Highs: 80 (0)
New Lows: 38 (-27)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +273.28 points (+2.76%) to close at 10172.53
Volume DJ30: 222M shares Thursday versus 223M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
FRIDAY
Friday will start off with an important report. May retail sales are expected to rise modestly, although less than the prior month. It showed a 0.4% gain even without autos. I am not expecting big moves because the consumer is a little bit winded at this point. The consumer started spending good money several months back. The pent up demand has waned somewhat, and there is not as much spending ongoing (but there is still some spending). Michigan Sentiment is expected to improve a bit. With the jobs number,, some reports are showing decreasing sentiment. There is a divergence of reports out there, although everyone and their brother is taking a sentiment survey these days. Maybe I will come out with my own just for the heck of it.
Business inventories will be a good foil to the wholesale inventories seen earlier in the week. They are expected to rise 0.1% over the prior month. The whole sales inventories were somewhat of a disappointment with the apparent lack of build. Companies preferred to build as needed versus getting ahead of any anticipated spike in demand.
As for the indices, we will be looking for a continuation of the move. It will be the fourth day since the Tuesday reversal, and if we get a good move on volume, we could get a follow-through. I am not expecting big volume. We did not get it on Thursday, and I doubt we will get it on a Friday in the summer. That will be for next week, apparently. If we go too many days to the upside without any real volume, we have less likelihood of being able to continue the move on volume. In other words, say we get another strong upside session, and then Monday or Tuesday we go higher again and do not get the volume. Then if you do get a big volume spike and the market moves higher, you have spent a lot of ammunition. It is questionable as to how good that move would be. It would be classified as a follow-through, but you would likely get a test back after that. That should be a buying point if the market is going to continue higher given the follow-through.
Remember, a follow-through is just something that usually precedes a good rally. It does not mean a good rally will necessarily follow just because there is a follow-through session. Again, you have to look for leadership, and there is a dearth of quality leadership out there. Until stocks are able to move laterally and put in good bases, leadership will be thin and rallies will likely fail. Where will this one fail? I am looking at the January peak as a key point because of what comes after that. There is the May peak. Of course that coincided with the March laterally consolidation, and that would be the second point. The March peak and the May recovery high. Those are two tough areas to overcome with a lot of overhead supply. We will have to see if they can do the trick. It will be a matter of playing it day by day, seeing what kind of strength in bounce you have, and seeing how the leadership develops if you have stocks that continue to base and move forward.
On Friday, there may with a couple of plays here and there. Maybe ANN will end up one that we could get into. I do not like to buy on Fridays because it tends to be distorted. There is short covering, there is buying to bolster positions and what-have-you at the end of the week, and that can all turn over on you to start the next week. I do not like to put a lot of new money to work on Friday, but we can. The fact that we have had a big move on Thursday would usually militate against adding any positions. However, since it just reversed an attempt to sell the market on Wednesday after a good intraday reversal on Tuesday, there is likely still room to the upside. If we get a good buy point a stock that has not gapped and run away from us we can move in. If we get a bit of a pullback on Friday, that might be just what the doctor ordered to get a better entry point on some of these positions. We will be taking partial positions because it is ahead of a weekend. The market is still extraordinarily volatile day to day, and we could very well see the Thursday move and any Friday gain tossed back in our faces to start next week. We do not want to get overextended, and we want to wait for decent entry points. Take them when they are there, but realize that we still have to look at this as a bounce. There is a lack of leadership and there was low volume on Thursday. It was not there to really push the market and convince us that the buyers were really there. We will see how this market deals with a reversal and a strong Thursday price move, albeit on light volume. Have a great evening.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2218.71
Resistance:
The 10 day EMA at 2218
The 200 day SMA at 2238
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
The 50 day EMA at 2313
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2434 is the May 2010 high
2453 is the August 2008 peak
Support:
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1086.84
Resistance:
1101 is the October 2009 high
1106 is the September 2008 low
The 200 day SMA at 1107
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
The 50 day EMA at 1123
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
Support:
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1040 is the May 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,172.53
Resistance:
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 200 day SMA at 10,310
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 10,457
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
Support:
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
June 07 - Monday
Consumer Credit, April (15:00): $1.0B actual versus -$2.0B expected, -$5.4B prior (revised from $2.0B)
June 09 - Wednesday
Wholesale Inventories, April (10:00): 0.4% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Crude Inventories, 06/05 (10:30): -1.83M actual versus -1.90M prior
June 10 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 06/05 (08:30): 456K actual versus 450K expected, 459K prior (revised from 453K)
Continuing Claims, 05/29 (08:30): 4462K actual versus 4600K expected, 4717K prior (revised from 4666K)
Trade Balance, April (08:30): -$40.3B actual versus -$41.3B expected, -$40.0B prior (revised from -$40.4B)
Treasury Budget, May (14:00): $135.9B actual versus $142.0B expected, $189.6B prior
June 11 - Friday
Retail Sales, May (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, May (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
Michigan Sentiment, June (09:55): 74.5 expected, 73.6 prior
Business Inventories, April (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.4% prior
End part 1 of 3
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