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world stock market, us stock market
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6/15/10 Investment House Alerts
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MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued. With SP500 breaking the 200 day SMA, letting the upside run.
Buy alerts: EMS; JMBA; PAY; SSYS; VIT
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: SPY
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The Market Summary video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Technical Summary, Economy, and the Next Session. This allows you to choose the segments you are interested in without having to find the spot in a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
MARKET OVERVIEW
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/MarketOverview.wmv
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TechnicalSummary.wmv
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/Economy.wmv
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NextSession.wmv
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SUMMARY:
- Fourth time is the charm as SP500 turns traction into action over the 200 day SMA.
- EU still a problem, but for now it is old news for the market.
- New York manufacturing misses expectations, but its gain assuages investors, at least for Tuesday.
- Expiration week helping fuel the move as some shorts are overexposed, if you know what I mean. Enough to drive to the January high.
- January high does not seal the deal for the bulls. It also potentially plays into the hands of the bears.
SP500 makes the break through the 200 day SMA and by golly holds it.
The key move on the SP500 was the break above the 200 day EMA. It broke below it in late May, made the rebound three times (as of Monday) and failed each time. That was not the case on Tuesday with a break to the upside that held through the close. There is still the gapdown point from May 19th where the index closed at 1,115. Today it closed at that level. Possible resistance, but it is not major. The real stuff is in the range from the January peak; that is the key, and everyone is watching it. The bulls are excited because of the break through the 200 day EMA that has held it in check. This is the first time the SP500 has had to deal with the 200 day EMA in a long time. It has traded above it since it recovered off the March low and finally broke through it. This is something of a challenge, and it took a bit to break through it. It will likely hold it, but there is always a chance of reversal. I will talk about that later. The big point is still for the bulls. It moved above the 200 day EMA, but the bears are still in the game because they are looking at the January peak for a potential right shoulder to the head and shoulders top. After the long run from March 2009, the argument is that it is primed for a major correction. Given that the US economic recovery is lackluster when compared to prior recoveries, and given the problems in the EU and other places, there could be a double dip in the US economy. That would be led lower by the stock market. It remains to be seen how it unfolds over the next couple of months. For now, Tuesday was a strong upside day. There was strong volume, breadth, and price gains on the indices.
Looking at the intraday chart, the SP500 moved nicely higher through the entire session. There was no real threat of ever selling off. It was a classic move higher on the open, and then the pyramids stacked one on top of the other all the way to the close. Very strong intraday move the kind you see in bull markets. The gains were impressive. NASDAQ +2.7%, nearly 6 points; the Dow +2.1%, over 200 points; SP500 +2.3%; SOX +5.5%; SP600 +2.3%; 2.8% on the NASDAQ 100. Very strong move across the board, and the internals were quite solid as well. Of course it is expiration week, and there is a lot of activity this week because there has been a lot of up and down movement in the market. There are people getting caught one way or the other, and that is adding to the volume and volatility. It could be driving the market through the end of the week, but do you care if you are a bull playing the move to the January peak? You do not care what drives it; you just want to be in the action as the market moves higher. That is why we were doing buying when it was unpopular. Everyone was beaten up after the market again failed at the 200 day EMA, but when we saw it hold at the February lows we started buying again even though we had exited upside positions on the way down as they started breaking support. We had to buy because the market was saying to do so. There was better traction, the sentiment got to an extreme, and volatility had peaked and started to come down. Typically that is when the move to the upside starts. It is not when the volatility spikes but a few weeks after, and that is exactly what is happening. We picked up some upside positions along the way, and indeed picked up some more today as the SP500 closed over the 200 day EMA.
OTHER MARKETS.
The fear trade was definitely off the table. The news in the European Union is actually no longer the kind of news that drives investors right now. They are once again acting as if they know the extent of all the trouble. We are not immune, but the senses are somewhat dulled with respect to EU news. Without major collapses, people feel things might be under control as the US continues to put up decent economic numbers. That leaves fears waning that the US will fall into a double dip.
Dollar. The dollar was down as the fear trade was down (1.2343 Euros versus 1.2225 Monday). It was not long ago the dollar broke below 1.20 Euro. The Euro is now having a snap back while the dollar is starting to sell some more. It broke below the 18 day EMA and continues to the downside. It may need more of a correction after a very long and unexpectedly strong run to this point due to the weakness in the EU.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Bonds. Bonds were off as well, as you would expect (US 10 year 2.21% versus 3.26% Monday). This is not a huge move in terms of what it has done over the past few months, but it is significant. There is some pressure on US bonds now just as there is pressure on the dollar. Again this is related to the fear trade taking this aspect out of the picture as far as investors are concerned. In other words, investors are turning to risk equities to make their money versus finding safe havens in the US dollar and bonds.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg
Gold. One would assume that gold was down on the session, but it was not. Gold has been going up both on fears in Europe and on fear of inflation. Originally that was a deflation trade and gold sold on that. Then the fear became so palpable that gold started to rally on the fear. It put deflation on the back burner because there was worry about whether countries would even be around. Now inflation is coming back on the scene as worries about Europe's failures and potential defaults wane and the fear of inflation returns. Gold posted an upside move ($1,234, +9.50.). A very solid up upside break for gold after it held above the late 2008/early 2009 peak. It held an important test and looks like it is ready to head back upside.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Oil. With the fear trade dying, oil is winding its way higher, moving up in its range after testing the bottom of its almost eight-month trading range. Nice move. Rallied up to the 200 day EMA, ran into a bit of trouble and pulled back. Nothing unusual about that. It is at the midpoint of its range, and one would expect it to take a pause. It is working its way higher, posting a gain ($76.94, +1.82). It may find resistance before trying to move higher in its range. It is very much a technical move, and it is also driven by the decreasing concerns that the EU and key countries will default. At least the fears were easing as of Tuesday.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
TECHNICAL PICTURE
INTERNALS
Volume. Volume increased nicely to 18%, up to 2.1B shares on NASDAQ. It rallied up 2% on the NYSE to 1.1B shares. It was not the kind of volume we saw late in May, but still decent volume and an improvement. NASDAQ is showing the real improvement in trade and indicates it may try to be the leading index on the move to the upside.
Breadth. Breadth was impressive at 4:1 to the upside advancers over decliners on NASDAQ. 5:1 advancers over decliners on the NYSE. Very solid numbers, although volume was a bit squeamish on the NYSE.
CHARTS
SP500. You could see that light trade for the fourth session in a row coming in below average even though it has been elevated this week after being down to end the prior week. Nonetheless as it made the break over the 200 day EMA, volume was disappointing. I am not going to fret about that. The key to this move is this range for the SP500 which is from about 1133 up to 1115. That is the move we are looking at, and so we will not worry much about volume. We are making that trade. If it continues higher from there, then we will worry about volume if it kicks in or not. We can expect volume to be accelerated this week with options expiration. It did not happen on Tuesday with the NYSE, so we can expect it on Wednesday or Thursday.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ was showing the same action; volume was up, but still below average. Volume has been lacking on NASDAQ although it was proportionally better than the NYSE. NASDAQ continued its move through the 200 day EMA and made it up to the 50 day EMA. It is already in the range of the January consolidation. It is looking right at the high coming into Wednesday and could easily make that. Are we worried about NASDAQ and the January peak? Sure. I am definitely worried about this at 2325 it is only 20 points away because it is a key top for NASDAQ. But SP500 is the one that most everyone is watching. I anticipate NASDAQ will break on through and challenge the gap area in the range where the March consolidation took place. I am anticipating that before NASDAQ runs into a significant amount of trouble. Of course everything can reverse the next session. Just because the SP500 broke through the 200 day EMA does not mean it will hold it. How many times have you seen a significant break get reversed the next session? The difference is that, over the past three weeks, there was traction being gained. There was extreme sentiment and volatility made its imprint on the action. Some leadership was holding up and gaining a little bit of strength. Leadership was fattening up somewhat, although hardly what you would consider the type that would lead the market to new highs. Nonetheless, it is enough to turn the market and give it some momentum to the upside. I am not expecting an immediate reversal and turn back.
SP600. There was a good 2.3% move on the day. Broke through this short downtrend starting with the late April/early May peaks. Made it up to the 50 day EMA, and that puts it close to its March consolidation. This is where it had trouble in mid May. The SP600 is not in as good a shape as the SP500 with respect to clearing the prior highs. It is in better shape than the SP500 because it never sold as much down through the 200 day EMA. Nonetheless, it has been somewhat lagging on the way back up because it has to deal with the peaks that the SP500 looks to have put to bed. It still has the same problem as SP500 and NASDAQ in that it has a significant resistance point relatively near overhead.
SOX. The semiconductors index put in a stellar day, up 5.5%. It blasted through the 50 day EMA, blasted up through the January closing peak, and indeed moved past the January peak altogether. Incredibly strong move after a triple bottom at the long term support that dates back almost a decade for the SOX. The semiconductors are looking good. They have some resistance, and you would expect them to take a pause after a move like this. They could easily do that and hold the lower part of the support range (what was resistance until today) at the lows in the January consolidation. That would be perfectly normal, and then it could break higher again. Suddenly technology and growth as far as tech versus the small caps are in vogue.
LEADERSHIP
Semiconductors. Semiconductors were the leadership on the day. XLNX surged higher, clearing all the near term resistance on strong volume. NVLS was the same story: new rally high and surging on strong volume. MCHP showed strong volume clearing near term highs as well. Semiconductors took off with a world of buyers out there willing to push them higher.
Energy. Natural gas seems to be performing well. APA has had a nice rally. Natural gas is suddenly in favor because of concerns about drilling offshore; it may be stopped or severely curtailed, so alternatives are in play. Gas is specifically mentioned as a prominent area that the US can tap. CVX moved up to the 200 day EMA, still unable to move through it once again. It gives an idea of how the majors are off their lows but still struggling. Indeed, BP is down after hours because the government almost doubled the estimate of the amount of oil escaping per day (65K barrels versus the 30K barrels). That is not helping. Merrill Lynch also said not to enter into any contracts with BP that are in excess of 12 months from today. That is hampering that stock's recovery after hours. HAL is part of the BP mess, but it was up. It filled the gap. We were looking the potentially play it to the downside, but it was a strong day for the market and it was up. Note volume was not that strong for HAL, however. I am not giving up on the downside, but I will watch it and see what happens.
Financial. Financials are hanging on. JPM is holding at the support level from the February low and trying to set some kind of bottom and start to rally. They were up on the session, but were nonetheless notable laggards to the rest of the market. WFC is still stuck down at the prior support level at the February lows, unable to move higher.
Metals. With the economy perhaps looking better, they were up. MTL was up, moving through the 200 day EMA. Not a barn burner of a move, but it was a decent move off the selloff, and there is still something of a reverse head and shoulders. It is trying to break higher out of that and give a move up near the 25 level or perhaps higher. TIE has been on a tear after this breakout and is looking great. It added another 2% to the move today. Not a huge gain, but not a bad move at all. Not something we will take back to the store and complain about.
Industrials. . Industrials were doing well also. CMI continues its breakout of its triangle and is very solid. ITW raised its guidance today. It did not explode higher on the news, but it helped out a lot of the companies in the sector such as CMI. CAT formed something of a double bottom and broke over the hump in the pattern on Tuesday with strong, above-average volume. Even some of the industrials are coming along with some of the energy stocks.
Miscellaneous. Leadership is not all in great shape to continue to move higher without trouble. There were stocks such as semiconductors that exploded higher, and other areas are performing quite well. Technology overall has leaders SNDK has been doing very well. It has been rallying beautifully and we have been playing it. There is also AKAM. It is in a nice uptrend and leading to the upside. There are still several of the more defensive players in the healthcare area that are performing just fine and moving higher. ILMN did not have a big day, but it did not sell off either. It has been a defensive play with growth potential. Leadership may not have swelled to the ranks where it is ready to lead the market to a new rally high, but it is at a point where it can lead up to the January peak and maybe beyond that.
THE ECONOMY
New York Manufacturing bolsters hope the regionals recover from the May slowdown.
There were some interesting stories out on Tuesday, and not all of them were scheduled reports. NY Empire Manufacturing rose to 19.57 from 19.11 in May. That missed expectations of 20.0, but it did not seem to bother the market. Investors viewed it as a positive. There was expansion, and as long as the regionals are starting to expand again, that is good. Last month in May the regional manufacturing was decelerating. Now we see the pickup, and this goes along with what I talked about over the weekend with trucking. Trucking looked to be slowing down a bit, but now the freight and orders are back up. That is a positive. Things cannot continue to the upside indefinitely without pause. They had their pause in late April and early May and now look to be back on track.
There is also the net long-term tic. Those are the investments in the US. They were not high as prior, but they were not bad enough to fund the US for another month, so to speak.
Import, export prices show the impact of the stronger dollar.
Export and import prices came in lower than last month, but not by much. Lower oil prices were the key. They were 1.3%, and in April there was only 0.6% with export prices. When you take out the oil, there is a little bit of change with respect to our pricing. A lot of this has to do with the dollar and how it has been performing. Our import prices will not spike as much when the dollar is stonger. Oil costs relatively less for the same barrel even if it is in the same dollar price because the dollars are worth more. When the dollar is worth more, the price of a barrel drops just as it rose when the dollar was weaker. We got the double whammy. Number one, our dollar buys less, and number two, they raise the price in order to get more dollars per barrel of oil. We get the benefit of that now that the dollar has been strengthening.
Homebuilders a fickle group as sentiment bounces up then down.
Household sentiment was out today; that was home builder's sentiment for June. In May they were glowing. People thought it was going to be wonderful was the first-time home buyer's credit helped fuel a lot to have buying. That turned right around in June, falling 5.17%. Apparently they did not anticipate just how significant the first-time buyer's credit was in spurring sales. Now that it has expired, they are seeing orders drop off the cliff. That hit their sentiment immediately. Home builders must be the most "wear your heart on your sleeve" group in our economy. Either that or they are bipolar or manic. They have tremendous highs and tremendous lows from month to month based on the data. It is pretty amazing. You would think they would be more focused on a long-term outlook since they are builders. Buildings tend to be a longer-term prospect than month to month. Nonetheless, they were down in June, and that says the market may not be so strong. Looking at the data with respect to how many loans are in default, how many are delinquent, and how that has grown, you can see why you would be depressed in the housing market. There is no quick recovery for home builders or homeowners.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX. There were spikes back in late April and early May, and those were the big peaks that pushed it up into the 50's. That signaled that the potential reversal was being set, and that is exactly what happened. Typically a few weeks after the big moves, the market starts to rally and the VIX start to fade. There is some significant erosion. Lower lows are being made right now as the market rallies. There is no mystery there it was just a matter of reading the VIX. It was one of the indicators that helped show what was coming with respect to this move to the upside.
VIX: 25.87; -2.71
VXN: 26.37; -2.57
VXO: 25.08; -2.9
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.87; -0.23
Bulls versus Bears:
This past week the bearish number of investment advisors topped bullish advisors. That is a rare event and thus very noteworthy. It falls into our theme that the sentiment indicators have hit extremes and are at levels sufficient for at least a more sustained bounce in the indices.
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 38.5%. Falling as the last rally attempt failed, down from 39.8% the prior week. Down substantially from 43.8%, 47.2%, and 56.0% before that. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 39.9%. Huge spike from 28.4% shows a rare crossover as bears top bulls. It continues a sharp rise from 24.7% the week before where it held for a couple of weeks. Fell to 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +61.92 points (+2.76%) to close at 2305.88
Volume: 2.181B (+18.45%)
Up Volume: 1.953B (+1.011B)
Down Volume: 272.939M (-636.191M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.97 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.27 to 1
New Highs: 46 (-9)
New Lows: 30 (-2)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +25.6 points (+2.35%) to close at 1115.23
NYSE Volume: 1.165B (+2.11%)
Up Volume: 1.113B (+539.98M)
Down Volume: 46.61M (-460.669M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 5.07 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.75 to 1
New Highs: 101 (+3)
New Lows: 25 (0)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +213.88 points (+2.1%) to close at 10404.77
Volume DJ30: 203M shares Tuesday versus 178M shares Monday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
WEDNESDAY
On Wednesday there are housing starts, building permits, and the PPI coming out all before the market. Then there is capacity utilization and industrial production. They are very important and we will see how they improve. Capacity is expected to improve dramatically. It is more economic data, and it will either help the argument that the economy continues to improve or not hurt it that much. With Europe as old news and the US economy chucking along, the idea is that investors are willing to overlook that at least for this week with expiration.
You cannot forget about expiration, and it is definitely driving some of the action. There were a lot of shorts out there over the past two weeks. When they saw the 200 day EMA hold the SP500 in check a couple of times and then the plunge last week, they got their shorts out (dropped their drawers, so to speak). With this strong surge up this past four days two strong moves on three out of four days to the upside they were overexposed with respect to their downside. That sentence is loaded with innuendo. Nonetheless, you can see that they have been caught, and it is expiration at that. A lot of them are playing short-term downside into the end of the month. After all, SP500 failed for the second time at the 200 day EMA it was going to head sharply lower. The shorts were playing to the downside, they were ready for a lot, and they were making short term bets as well. They love to play short term bets before expiration. Now, as I said, they got caught with their pants at their ankles and are trying to yank them up with the spotlight on them. Not a pretty image, but you get the point. They are helping drive the action to the upside, and it could last.
As the shorts continue to work, we will see volatility. It is expiration week, and we are likely to see more volume come in probably on Wednesday and Thursday. That can easily drive the SP500 up to this January range. The bottom is around 1132, and the top is at 1151. That is the range we have been looking for as the key move. SP500, NASDAQ, and the SOX have held at a key long-term support level, and they have reversed off of that as well as the February low which held at that same level. They are moving to the upside and showing growth strength as they do, but this is really big. You have this potential head and shoulders formation that could block it and knock it back. Maybe they get a reversal immediately tomorrow, but most likely not. There is a lot put into this bottom, a lot that can continue the momentum to the upside. Likelihood of reversal is somewhat low. The likelihood of a test is possible. Enough to scare people into thinking it has gone back to the downside.
Expiration week should expect volatility. You have the shorts caught and trying to get out, and that will have upside pressure on the market. Again, we are looking at it as a bounce right now. Volume certainly suggests it is a bounce both on SP500 and on the NASDAQ (which is not showing above average trade either). Neither has the trade to drive it, so we look for a bounce up to a resistance point for these levels and then have to reevaluate and see what happens. We have to see what the volume is doing, what leadership is coming to the fore, and whether we can anticipate further upside. For now, nothing has changed. Low volume, leadership still thin overall, but there is some dynamic leadership exploding to the forefront, e.g., the semiconductors.
We have already taken quite a few positions on the upside, and I will still look for possibilities. You always look for plays that are the next wave or have not quite caught fire. Or those that have caught fire and are testing already on their own. Not all stocks rallied with this move, and we will look for those and potential new buys. As the market moves up toward that January high however, we want to start feathering back on our buys; indeed, starting to take gain off the table. We took gain off the table the prior two sessions as SP500 bumped up against the 200 day EMA, but now that it broke through, I am willing to let plays run. When we get up to this level and see slowing, that is our plan. As part of our plan, we will execute it and take some gain off the table. When we get there, a lot of our positions will be at a point where we can take some good gain. We will take part of it and then evaluate what is happening at that juncture and whether the index looks like it will fade back and fail at that point or continue higher. Likely it will run up there, and it could do it this week. SP500 could get into this range this week it is another 15 points to the upside. Then we have to evaluate how strong it is. When it gets to that level, it could try to move sideways. That would be totally normal, and then we will see whether it makes the break to the upside and continues. Every time the market makes a significant move, you have to reevaluate. While it is doing what we anticipated it to do at this juncture, we still have to evaluate strength, leadership, and other factors such as sentiment when it gets to the next key level.
For now, we look for a few more opportunities. We do not want to buy too much right now. If we get a pullback, we will use it. If we get a day or two where stocks pull back but hold around the 200 day EMA for the SP500, that is good for us. We can use it to move into plays to get the last run up to the January range. Have an excellent evening. We will see you on Wednesday and see if the SP500 can hold the move over the 200 day EMA and indeed extend it.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2305.88
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 2308
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2434 is the May 2010 high
2453 is the August 2008 peak
Support:
2292 is a low from January 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2241
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1115.23
Resistance:
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1119 is the early December intraday high
The 50 day EMA at 1120
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
Support:
The 200 day SMA at 1108
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1040 is the May 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,404.77
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 10,436
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
Support:
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 200 day SMA at 10,320
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
June 15 - Tuesday
Export Prices ex-ag., May (08:30): 0.6% actual versus 1.3% prior (revised from 1.4%)
Import Prices ex-oil, May (08:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.6% prior (revised from 0.5%)
Empire Manufacturing, June (08:30): 19.57 actual versus 20.0 expected, 19.11 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, April (09:00): $83.0 actual versus $140.5B prior
June 16 - Wednesday
Housing Starts, May (08:30): 655K expected, 672K prior
Building Permits, May (08:30): 631K expected, 610K prior
PPI, May (08:30): -0.5% expected, -0.1% prior
Core PPI, May (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Capacity Utilization, May (09:15): 74.4% expected, 73.7% prior
Industrial Production, May (09:15): 0.8% expected, 0.8% prior
Crude Inventories, 06/12 (10:30): -1.83M prior
June 17 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 06/12 (08:30): 450K expected, 452K prior
Continuing Claims, 06/5 (08:30): 4475K expected, 4462K prior
CPI, May (08:30): -0.1% expected, -0.1% prior
Core CPI, May (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Current Account Bala, Q1 (08:30): -$124.0B expected, -$115.6B prior
Leading Indicators, May (10:00): 0.5% expected, -0.1% prior
Philadelphia Fed, June (10:00): 20.0 expected, 21.4 prior
End part 1 of 3
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