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6/17/10 Investment House Alerts
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MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit alerts: None issued
Buy alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
Market Close Alert
Stocks traded up and down all session, but mostly all below the flat line until a late, last half hour rally basically brought all indices back to flat. NASD 1.23, 0.05%; DJ30 24.71, 0.24%; SP500 1.43, 0.13%; SOX -0.19%; SP600 -0.04%; NASD 100 +0.28%. A/D flat on both NYSE, NASD with advancing issues just topping decliners. Volume was a rather paltry 1.77B NASD, 1.15B NYSE, basically in line with Wednesday, i.e. well below average. A better Spanish bond auction in terms of bid to cover (still had to pay up more on yields, however) bolstered the euro, pushing the dollar lower (1.2385 vs 1.2302); at one point the euro topped 1.24 dollars. US bonds still rallied, however (3.20% vs 3.26% 10 yr), and gold climbed as well (1,246.60, +16.10) while oil fell (76.79, -0.88). Spain might have sold more bonds, but some weaker US economic data (higher jobless claims, weaker Philly Fed manufacturing) kept the fear trade stoked as these other markets show. Overall the action was pretty much in line with what we were looking for, i.e. another test of the SP500 200 day MA on the low, a hold, and a modest bounce. That is doing some good work to set up a continued move higher after breaking the 200 day and taking this breather. This rest is setting up some good stocks a bit better, and we will continue to look at good stocks, and if they finish a test and start back up we can add some more. Have a great evening!
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 25.05; -0.87
VXN: 25.15; -0.77
VXO: 24.44; -0.93
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.9; -0.05
Bulls versus Bears:
This past week the bearish number of investment advisors topped bullish advisors. That is a rare event and thus very noteworthy. It falls into our theme that the sentiment indicators have hit extremes and are at levels sufficient for at least a more sustained bounce in the indices.
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 38.5%. Falling as the last rally attempt failed, down from 39.8% the prior week. Down substantially from 43.8%, 47.2%, and 56.0% before that. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 39.9%. Huge spike from 28.4% shows a rare crossover as bears top bulls. It continues a sharp rise from 24.7% the week before where it held for a couple of weeks. Fell to 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: +1.23 points (+0.05%) to close at 2307.16
Volume: 1.724B (-6.99%)
Up Volume: 956.057M (+20.636M)
Down Volume: 779.678M (-186.198M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.01 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.46 to 1
New Highs: 41 (-18)
New Lows: 35 (+8)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +1.43 points (+0.13%) to close at 1116.04
NYSE Volume: 1.159B (-0.98%)
Up Volume: 452.335M (+46.059M)
Down Volume: 693.254M (-10.452M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.01 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.33 to 1
New Highs: 102 (+4)
New Lows: 30 (-12)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: +1.23 points (+0.05%) to close at 2307.16
Volume DJ30: 181M shares Thursday versus 166M shares Wednesday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2307.16
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 2308
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
2412-2415 represents a series of peaks and lows in 2007, 2008
2434 is the May 2010 high
2453 is the August 2008 peak
Support:
2292 is a low from January 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2244
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1116.04
Resistance:
1119 is the early December intraday high
The 50 day EMA at 1120
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
Support:
1114 is the November 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1109
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1040 is the May 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,434.17
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 10,435
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
Support:
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 200 day SMA at 10,330
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
June 15 - Tuesday
Export Prices ex-ag., May (08:30): 0.6% actual versus 1.3% prior (revised from 1.4%)
Import Prices ex-oil, May (08:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.6% prior (revised from 0.5%)
Empire Manufacturing, June (08:30): 19.57 actual versus 20.0 expected, 19.11 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, April (09:00): $83.0 actual versus $140.5B prior
June 16 - Wednesday
Housing Starts, May (08:30): 593K actual versus 655K expected, 659K prior (revised from 672K)
Building Permits, May (08:30): 574K actual versus 631K expected, 610K prior (revised from 606K)
PPI, May (08:30): -0.3% actual versus -0.5% expected, -0.1% prior
Core PPI, May (08:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Capacity Utilization, May (09:15): 74.7% actual versus 74.4% expected, 73.7% prior
Industrial Production, May (09:15): 1.2% actual versus 0.8% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.8%)
Crude Inventories, 06/12 (10:30): 1.69M actual versus -1.83M prior
June 17 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 06/12 (08:30): 472K actual versus 450K expected, 460K prior (revised from 456K)
Continuing Claims, 06/5 (08:30): 4571K actual versus 4475K expected, 4483K prior (revised from 4462k)
CPI, May (08:30): -0.2% actual versus -0.1% expected, -0.1% prior
Core CPI, May (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Current Account Balance, Q1 (08:30): -$109.0B actual versus -$124.0B expected, -$100.9B prior (revised from -$115.6B)
Leading Indicators, May (10:00): 0.4% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.0% prior (revised from -0.1%)
Philadelphia Fed, June (10:00): 8.0 actual versus 20.0 expected, 21.4 prior
End part 1 of 3
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