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stock watch, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
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Each play contains an additional link to a VIDEO that discusses the play in terms of the CHART PATTERN it is currently showing. Patterns, buy points, and targets are discussed along with other points that make the play a good one as well as what areas to watch for. *********** *************
Upside:
Play Date: 06/20/2010
JOYG (Joy Global--$55.64; +0.18; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
After Hours: $55.38
EARNINGS: 08/30/2010
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. JOYG is in a short flag as it tests the breakout from a 6 week reverse head and shoulders pattern. Good volume on the upside break and now a test back to near support over the 10 day EMA. Nice break higher, and this easy test is giving us the opportunity to move in. Just want to see it hold then make the break higher and hold that move into the close. That is when we move in.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/JOYG.wmv
Volume: 2.418M Avg Volume: 2.988M
BUY POINT: $56.23 Volume=4M Target=$63.62 Stop=$53.77
POSITION: JOYG 10J55.00 - Oct. $55c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/20/2010
KWR (Quaker Chemical--$27.93; -0.36; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kwr.html
After Hours: $28.31
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. The 'usual' February through late April rally, then the May selling, the bottom at support and then a rebound the past two weeks. Nice hold at the 200 day SMA on the lows, forming the double bottom. After bouncing off the 200 day SMA two weeks back it broke through the 50 day EMA last week and then moved laterally over that support, consolidating. Looks primed for a continued break upside. Looking for a break through the buy point and a hold into the close to give us the buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/KWR.wmv
Volume: 105.46K Avg Volume: 134.377K
BUY POINT: $28.56 Volume=200K Target=$34.94 Stop=$26.72
POSITION: Stock - (no option chain)
Play Date: 06/20/2010
PVH (Phillips-Van Heusen--$54.93; -0.27; optionable): Apparel manufacturer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pvh.html
After Hours: $54.93
EARNINGS: 08/16/2010
STATUS: Flag. Apparel is looking good whether stores or manufacturers. After that familiar strong February through April run PVH has tested, stair-stepping back through early June. It tried to form an ABCD pattern, but tested again, adding a couple of extra letters to the pattern (E and F). In doing so it filled the March upside gap, and held over the 200 day SMA, using it as support. It broke higher and last week cleared the last interim peak and is now forming a short flag pattern. In excellent position to continue the break higher and give us a run toward the prior high at 68.18.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PVH.wmv
Volume: 721.416K Avg Volume: 1.403M
BUY POINT: $55.95 Volume=1.8M Target=$66.88 Stop=$54.08
POSITION: PVH 10I55.00 - Sept. $55c (51 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/20/2010
TRN (Trinity Industries--$21.38; -0.12; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trn.html
After Hours: $21.38
EARNINGS: 07/30/2010
STATUS: Triangle. Another stock with the February to late April run followed by the selling in the May pullback. Another good stock that found support at its 200 day SMA, forming a double bottom at that level. Bounced through the 50 day EMA to start last week, moved laterally in a tight range through Friday, and is in position to make the next break higher. Looking for a move through the buy point that holds toward the close to give us the buy.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/TRN.wmv
Volume: 341.761K Avg Volume: 1.225M
BUY POINT: $21.87 Volume=1.4M Target=$26.98 Stop=$20.76
POSITION: TRN 10J20.00 - Oct. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/20/2010
WHR (Whirlpool--$101.36; -0.50; optionable): Pennant
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/whr.html
After Hours: $101.36
EARNINGS: 07/19/2010
STATUS: After that run from February to April, WHR is another leader testing that move, stepping back lower but in very orderly fashion in an 8 week pullback. It rallied the past two weeks, moving up to the short down trendline formed off the late April peak. It backed off that level Thursday and Friday, catching its breath. In these patterns a stock often makes a higher low just before its breakout. WHR may fade back a bit more here but if it does makes that higher low over the 50 day EMA (98.86) and breaks the trendline, it is ready to move higher and we are ready to move in as it does.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/WHR.wmv
Volume: 1.046M Avg Volume: 1.732M
BUY POINT: $102.88 Volume=2.2M Target=$118.31 Stop=$98.44
POSITION: WHR 10I100.00 - Sept. $100c (56 delta) &/or Stock
CONTINUING PLAYS READY TO MOVE:
Play Date: 06/16/2010
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$56.22; -0.14; optionable): Steel and iron, catalysts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
After Hours: $55.88
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A small amount of testing this week to move below the 50 day EMA, but held up nicely Friday over the 10 and 18 day EMA. Not a bad level of support to hold, and in great shape to bounce from this point Monday. If it can do that and stick, we can look at picking it up. To recap: Looking at CLF as it starts to form a handle to a double bottom formed off the 200 day SMA by the late May and early June lows. CLF rallied back up to the late May reflex peak on Monday and stalled, working laterally the past two sessions, holding over the 50 day EMA. Volume dried up as it has moved laterally, not bad action as it shows no one interest in getting rid of their stock. CLF may test laterally Thursday and Friday then start up next week. It may go ahead and start up Thursday. Good pattern, and all we have to do is be patient and let it show us the renewed upside break and we move in for a run back up toward the bottom of the April range.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/CLF.wmv
Volume: 4.382M Avg Volume: 8.175M
BUY POINT: $58.28 Volume=10M Target=$69.94 Stop=$54.31
POSITION: CLF 10J57.50 - Oct. $57.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/14/2010
DLM (Del Monte Foods--$14.71; -0.25; optionable): Processed and packaged foods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dlm.html
After Hours: $14.71
EARNINGS: 08/30/2010
STATUS: Flag. Nice pullback this week to set this one up perfectly. Checked up at the 50 day EMA on the low Thursday before bouncing back, but then went ahead and faded to that moving average Friday. Settled nicely over the support, and this one is in great shape to bounce to start the week. To recap: You have to eat no matter what the economic conditions. After a solid March through late April surge that tested toward a 10 year high, DLM tested back through early last week, bracketing the 50 day EMA as it tested. Surged higher starting Tuesday, picking up some big volume Thursday as it gapped to the April peak. Testing back Friday and Monday, holding over the 10 day EMA as it does. Might take another day or two to test, but a very nice setup to make the next break higher. Want to see a move through the buy point on more solid trade.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DLM.wmv
Volume: 2.437M Avg Volume: 1.932M
BUY POINT: $15.44 Volume=2.2M Target=$18.55 Stop=$14.39
POSITION: DLM 10I15.00 - Sept. $15c (59 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/10/2010
DTG (Dollar Thrifty Auto Group--$44.73; +0.18; optionable): Auto rentals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dtg.html
After Hours: $44.73
EARNINGS: 08/04/2010
STATUS: Pennant. This stock worked laterally all week, showing a doji four out of the five sessions. It is still under the 10 and 18 day EMA so it could not be bought, but when it can start to break out from this range it will be a good buy. To recap: DTG made us some excellent coin this year. Over the past 5 weeks it has formed series of lower highs but has constant lows at the late April gap up point, now coincident with the rising 50 day EMA. Very solid pattern and a very nice test is setting up the next move. If that move is a break upside on some volume, moving through the 18 day EMA, we are ready to enter for a continued rally after this very nice consolidation.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/DTG.wmv
Volume: 499.049K Avg Volume: 1.308M
BUY POINT: $45.57 Volume=1.7M Target=$52.24 Stop=$42.54
POSITION: DTG 10J45.00 - Oct. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/15/2010
NETL (Netlogic Microsystems--$30.01; +0.02; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/netl.html
After Hours: $30.01
EARNINGS: 07/28/2010
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Moving laterally Thursday and Friday, still set to make the next break higher. To recap: Looking at adding some positions on our current play as NETL has morphed its pattern into a bit of a reverse head and shoulders, forming the right shoulder the past two weeks. Tuesday NETL broke through the neckline resistance on the best volume in over a week, clearing the 50 day EMA on the way and holding just about all of the gain on the session. Solid upside break and ready to move into more positions as NETL continues this new move.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/NETL.wmv
Volume: 1.369M Avg Volume: 1.581M
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=2M Target=$34.89 Stop=$27.79
POSITION: NETL 10J27.50 - Oct. $27.55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/16/2010
PII (Polaris--$60.85; -0.73; optionable): ATV's, PWC's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pii.html
After Hours: $60.87
EARNINGS: 07/12/2010
STATUS: Flag. Great little flag pattern still as PII had the nice intraday test and reversal off the 10 day EMA Thursday, and then just took things easy Friday. It did fade mildly, but it is holding the April pre-gap point, May highs, and that 10 day EMA for support. This one wants to bounce, it is just a matter of being patient and letting it. To recap: After a good run through Friday with a gap higher Monday, PII is pausing, moving laterally, holding the modest Monday upside gap. This last move occurred off the second test of the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the February to April run higher. A nice double bottom at that 50% level and the break higher over the 'hump' in the double bottom Now it is testing, and while it may take another day or two to finish (or it may jump back up Thursday), when PII makes the break higher we are looking to move in for a run up to the 127% Fibonacci extension just over 71.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/PII.wmv
Volume: 346.009K Avg Volume: 474.731K
BUY POINT: $62.31 Volume=650K Target=$71.00 Stop=$58.78
POSITION: PII 10I60.00 - Sept. $10c (57 delta) &/or Stock
Play Date: 06/15/2010
URI (United Rentals--$12.48; -0.04; optionable): Rental and leasing service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uri.html
After Hours: $12.49
EARNINGS: 07/26/2010
STATUS: Pennant/Flag. Another nice, long reach down that reversed to finish with a doji. This move tapped the 50 day EMA on the low, and may be what the stock needs to send it higher. Primed for a bounce, now just has to show it. To recap: URI rents construction and industrial equipment. It spent a lot of 2010 moving lower, but as of late March it finally caught fire. It rallied nicely and exploded higher in late April on its earnings report. That move built the strong rally that is the foundation for the current 6 week test. URI has come back to fully test the move from when it turned ballistic, i.e. on the April earnings, but it is still holding a lot of the gain off the February low where it bottomed in 2010. Indeed, it is holding the Fibonacci 50% retracement on the twin bottoms in May and early June, just the kind of pattern you want to see at that level. Monday URI gapped over the 50 day EMA but could not do anything with the move. Tuesday URI was on the move on some strong volume. Very solid and ready to move in as URI continues this upside break.
VIDEO: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/URI.wmv
Volume: 1.176M Avg Volume: 1.966M
BUY POINT: $12.72 Volume=2.1M Target=$14.69 Stop=$11.64
POSITION: URI 10I10.00 - Sept. $10c (69 delta) &/or Stock
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock watch
stock recommendation
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